Gold: Major New Option Portfolios Signal Strong Moves AheadFriday’s CME report showed a surge in large option blocks in gold — two of them stand out.
🔹 1. "Long Condor" on December Futures (GCZ24)
This is the most significant structure added:
Targets a move below $3,620 or above $3,780
In other words: a breakout is expected, not consolidation
📌 Key point:
A "Long Condor" profits from volatility, not direction.
It wins if price moves sharply — up OR down — but loses if it stays flat.
💡 My note:
When I first encountered delta-neutral strategies like this as a Forex trader — my brain exploded.
No directional bias… yet clearly positioned for action?
That was the moment I realized: options are a different game.
🔹 2. Bull Call Spread (Oct Series): $3800–$3850
Another key play:
A classic bullish call spread at 3800/3850
Target: upside beyond current levels
But here’s the difference:
Unlike the "Long Condor", this one needs a clear upward move — and soon. Within a few days.
This isn’t about volatility.
It’s a directional bet that gold will rise.
🧠 Bottom Line:
One portfolio says: "Breakout coming — no matter which way."
Another says: "Gold goes up — and soon."
Are they aligned?
Contradictory?
Or could both win?
Trade smarter, not harder! Looking to boost your profits with valuable market insights and data-driven entry points? Join us or keep moving!
AU1! trade ideas
Gold Buy ModelAs we all know, gold has been trending up for quite some time now. With Fed Chair Roman Powell speaking about rate cuts in the future, this means that Gold is going to want to continue trending up.
Lower interest rates can also weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers and increasing demand.
I do think gold will continue to trend higher, but I'd love to see a sweep of Asia session lows, potentially testing PDL before this happens. My area of interest is right around $3780 to $3775.
Gold Futures — Extended After Bullish Surge, Watching 4 PullbackYesterday’s move pushed gold aggressively higher with almost no retrace, leaving a string of unfilled imbalances below. Price is now pressing into 3780 levels, just shy of the psychological 3800 handle.
Key Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: If Asia/London hold above 3767, a squeeze into 3800–3810 is possible before any meaningful pullback.
Retracement Setup: A break under 3767 could trigger a retrace into 3743 → 3719 zone, aligning with prior resistance turned support.
Bigger Picture: Major 4H FVG remains untested below (around 3650–3660), which could act as a downside magnet later in the week.
Patience is key after such a vertical move — waiting to see if Tuesday gives us either continuation or that first retrace.
Silver To The Mooooon!!Several factors have come together to make silver especially attractive.
Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts / Lower Real Yields
Markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‐yielding assets like silver.
Real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) have been weak or falling, making silver more appealing.
Weak U.S. Dollar
When the USD weakens, commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand.
Safe-Haven / Inflation Hedge Demand
Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and fears of inflation make precious metals attractive. Silver benefits both as an industrial metal and a hedge to some degree.
The gold-to-silver ratio is unusually high, which many see as signalling that silver is “cheap” relative to gold, suggesting more upside potential.
TIME FOR RISKY ASSETS TO MOVE UP! after running for 2-3 years without a severe 30% pull back, this could play out for 2026 pt
if inflation kept low, fed interest rate cut 25 points on oct2025, war peace and regional calm? we can see 30% decline for gold YES. but as always:
DYOR
happy trading and happy profit taking
Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)🟡 Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)
Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, gold has extended aggressively into the 2.618 Fib extension (~3,778), a level that historically marks exhaustion points in strong trends. Volume profile also shows a lack of heavy participation above, meaning this is an overextended zone that can invite corrections.
That said, the structural trend remains firmly bullish. Gold has been in a secular uptrend, and each consolidation/throwback over the past decade has set up for higher highs. From a macro perspective, dips remain buying opportunities — but risk management matters when price stretches this far, this fast.
🔍 Long-Term Context
Gold has already cleared the 1.618 extension (~2,734) and ran nearly straight into the 2.618 (~3,778) without meaningful retrace.
Volume profile shows thin participation between ~3,200 and 3,600 — fast moves can cut both ways here.
Stronger long-term support sits around 3,390 (high-volume node) and further down at ~2,730 and ~2,090 (Fib levels + prior consolidation zones).
⚖️ Strategy Update
Long-term bias: Bullish. Macro backdrop (Fed easing cycle, fiscal imbalances, central bank buying) favors higher gold over time.
Short-term hedge: Valid. With price testing a 2.618 Fib extension, we expect corrective pullbacks before continuation. A hedge here reduces risk of giving back profits without abandoning the larger uptrend.
Plan: Maintain hedge positioning near 3,758–3,771 (as outlined in the short-term plan). If pullback develops, scale out at key supports (3,701 → 3,587 → 3,510). If price breaks and sustains above 3,790, hedge is invalid and we reset for long continuation.
📊 Perspective:
The weekly chart confirms why a hedge here makes sense — gold has run into a historically significant Fib extension with thin volume structure above. This doesn’t negate the long-term bull trend, but it increases the probability of a corrective throwback. Protecting gains with a short hedge while respecting the bullish macro bias keeps us balanced.
Gold Futures Hedge Update🟡 Gold Futures Hedge Update
Our previous short setup reached the first take profit, confirming that hedging into overextension made sense. Long-term bias on gold remains bullish, but short-term conditions still look stretched, and we’re preparing for another protective hedge.
This is not a bearish reversal call — the goal is to lock in gains and protect profits as gold presses into heavy resistance.
📍 Trade Setup (Short Hedge)
Entry (Short): 3,750 (Fib 1.618 extension + HVN resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): 3,780 (above channel top + HVN cluster)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,700 – 3,685 (volume node / mid-channel support)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,587 (next HVN + structural support)
Take Profit 3 (Stretch): 3,510 – 3,500 (Fib retrace + channel low)
⚖️ Rationale
Gold has been overextended on the short-term chart, pressing into Fib and channel resistance with signs of stalling.
Volume profile highlights key support/resistance nodes that align with Fib levels.
Taking partial profits on the way down while keeping risk tight ensures the hedge protects without overcommitting against the dominant bullish trend.
📊 Plan: Scale into shorts near resistance with defined risk, peel off at TP1 and TP2, leave a runner for deeper correction potential. If gold breaks and holds above 3,790, hedge is invalidated and focus shifts back to long setups.
Gold Futures — New Week Opens Strong After Friday RallyGold closed last week bullish after sweeping liquidity below the weekly low and snapping higher into resistance. As we open into Asian session Monday, price is testing the daily high (3719).
Key Scenarios This Week:
Bullish: If buyers hold above 3719, continuation toward 3743 (weekly fair value gap high) and potentially 3767 (ATH marker) could play out.
Bearish: A failure to hold above 3719 opens the door for retracement back toward 3700 → 3685 zone (last week’s supply area).
Opening conditions look bullish, but patience is key. Waiting to see if Asia sets the tone for continuation or if NY later in the week pulls it back.
GC - GOLD 9/19Monthly timeframe Pink
Weekly = Grey
Daily = Red
4hr = Orange
1hr = Yellow
15min = Blue
5min = Green
4 candles, 6 Levels, & MarketMeta
A Range = 2 or more candles in the same direction, either Accumulation ranges, Distribution ranges or Single candles which are ranges on lower timeframes.
the 4 candles are:
2 from the Distribution Range - BackSide (BS) which is the first distribution candle in the range. It has an expectation to have a strong influence on price when price is above it. If price is below the BS level, price enters the distribution range and the BackSide level acts as resistance to keep price down in a distribution trend.
The FrontSide candle (FS) is the last distribution candle is the range. the bottom side wick is the swingLow level and distribution range boundary. A FrontSide candle has an expectation to create an accumulation trend and keep price above the swingLow.
The other 2 candles are in the accumulation range and the exact opposite of the BS & FS level so they are labeled Inverse BackSide (Inv.BS) & Inverse FrontSide (Inv.FS)
Options Traders Display Caution As Gold Bulls Gun For $4000With gold trading less than $120 from the $4,000 milestone, it would be rude not to test that key level. While market positioning suggests a move beyond it is possible, options traders appear to be bracing for higher volatility — or even a pullback.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Long trade
Pair/Asset: MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures)
Trade Type: Buyside trade (Trade Idea)
Date: Tuesday, 30th Sept 2025
Session: 6:00 AM
Trade Details
Entry: 3841.3
Profit Level (TP): 3914.2 (+1.90%)
Stop Level (SL): 3822.0 (-0.50%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 3.78
Technical Narrative
Market Context:
Gold retraced sharply overnight, creating multiple fair value gaps (FVGs) on the 5m chart.
The strong rebound at ~3820 formed a structural low + BSLQ sweep, suggesting liquidity taken below support. A bullish recovery candle with high volume confirmed aggressive buyers stepping in.
Entry Justification:
Entry at 3841.3 coincided with the demand zone after the sweep.
EMA/WMA realignment showed a momentum shift back to the upside.
Volume spike supported bullish intent.
Target Rationale:
TP at 3914.2 chosen just below the prior swing high & inefficiency zone.
Broader context: If USD shows weakness during the NY session, upside continuation is likely?
DYX (1Hr TF) overview
Gold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonal
Gold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonal
Gold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonal
Mcx Gold Profit-taking takes placeA proper analysis and technical analysis(gold)
The latest 4-hour chart of MCX Gold Futures (INR) reveals a strong uptrend supported by channel movement and clear Fibonacci retracement levels. The price has recently tested channel resistance around 116,625 INR and faced a minor pullback to 116,170 INR, suggesting short-term consolidation after a rally.
### Trend and Channel Analysis
- The price is moving within a rising channel, indicating persistent bullish momentum .
- The current price (116,170 INR) is slightly below recent highs, respecting the upper boundary of the channel, which signals overextension and potential for a corrective pullback .
- As long as the price remains inside the channel, the upward trend is intact.
### Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent upmove:
- 0.0%: 116,625 INR (Recent swing high; nearest resistance)
- 23.60%: 113,656 INR (First near-term support; significant for shallow corrections)
- 38.20%: 111,819 INR (Secondary support; may attract buyers on stronger dips)
- 50.00%: 110,335 INR (Critical mid retracement; if broken, trend may weaken)
- 61.80%: 108,850 INR (Key retracement; strong institutional level)
- 78.60%: 106,737 INR (Major support if deep correction occurs)
### Support and Resistance
- Immediate resistance is at 116,625 INR; breaking above could trigger strong bullish momentum .
- Immediate support is at 113,656 INR; a drop below this could bring further downside to 111,819 INR .
- Psychological support is at 110,000 INR, just below the 50% retracement, and another at 108,750 INR near 61.8% .
### Momentum and Outlook
- The trend remains bullish unless the price closes below 113,656 INR .
- Watch for a buying opportunity if the price retests the lower channel or key Fibonacci levels without breaking the channel downward.
- If price sustains above 116,625 INR, next round of buying could push towards 118,000 INR.
### Summary Table
| Level | Price (INR) | Significance |
|-----------------|-------------|-------------------|
| Channel High | 116,625 | Immediate Resistance |
| 23.6% Fib | 113,656 | First Support |
| 38.2% Fib | 111,819 | Deeper Support |
| 50% Fib | 110,335 | Mid-Support |
| 61.8% Fib | 108,850 | Strong Support |
| 78.6% Fib | 106,737 | Deep Correction |
Overall, the outlook is bullish above 113,656 INR, but a close below key retracement levels could invite deeper correction towards 110,335 or 108,850 INR . Aggressive traders can ride the trend with tight stops below key levels, while conservative traders may wait for price action confirmation at or near Fibonacci supports.
Gold & Silver Push Higher as Markets Hunt for Safe HavensGold continues its climb, breaking through past resistance levels as investors flee into safety ahead of U.S. fiscal turmoil and rate ambiguity.
Meanwhile, silver is turning heads — rallying hard on the back of both safe-haven demand and its dual role as an industrial metal.
Together, they’re painting a picture: when anxiety and uncertainty rise, the metals step into the spotlight.
Gold hit an all-time high of $3,833.37/oz, closing at $3,829.63, on strong safe-haven demand amid U.S. shutdown fears and rate cut expectations.
It then extended gains, reaching $3,842.76/oz, putting it on track for its best month since August 2011 with an ~11.4% gain in September.
Silver also surged: it climbed to a 14-year high near $46.85/oz as industrial demand and safe-haven flows bolstered interest.
Earlier this year, silver broke $35/oz, a level not seen in over 13 years, driven by tight supply and robust demand in tech & green energy sectors.
Long GoldSo, without overexplaining: the overall structure is bullish, but the 15-minute timeframe is still bearish for now. You can either wait for the 15-minute to shift bullish before entering long, or take a more aggressive entry from the identified area. Also, keep in mind it’s Monday — the opening can be choppy. Still, the market currently looks bullish overall.
Is Gold Heading Higher?At the beginning of last week, price saw a much needed pullback on the commodity. Earlier news in the week was the catalyst that gold needed to head down.
Some thought we would head down further but gold seems to have traversed the entirety of its pullback, with price trading not too far away from its ATH.
With the dollar still gaining strength from future rate cut uncertainty, is this just a test of the top before further moves down? Could be. But future rate cut uncertainty might not be enough to keep gold from making new highs.
We do have a pretty news heavy week with NFP looming at the end of the week. Remember to always trade with caution.
Gold MCX Nov. Future - Intraday Technical Analysis - 29 Sep. MCX:GOLD2! Gold Futures are consolidating at 114,908, hovering just above the key zero line and prior resistance, after a robust recovery that has shifted the trend for the short term.
Bullish Scenario (Long Logic)
Long Entry (114,584):
Initiate longs above 114,584 as the hourly structure confirms a strong reversal from the recent swing low, and price is respecting the ascending trendline.
Additional positions can be scaled in near 114,432 if retracement holds above this support, aligning with higher lows in price structure and rising volume.
Upside Targets:
115,685 (Target 1): Represents the first major resistance and expected profit-booking zone, corresponding to recent swing highs.
116,175 (Target 2): Upper mapped resistance, extension target for momentum continuation if bullish sentiment escalates.
Stop Loss:
Maintain stops below 114,280, or tighter at 114,156 (Long Exit), protecting against immediate breakdowns and false breakouts.
Bearish Scenario (Short Logic)
Short Entry (114,280):
Shorts activate below 114,280, as this would break both horizontal and trendline supports, shifting bias back in favor of bears.
Downside Targets:
114,097 (Target 1): Bounce area and possible reversal/support from previous sessions.
113,607 (Target 2): Deeper target, highlights aggressive selling and fall to lower end of range.
Stop Loss:
Shorts should be covered above 114,891 if breakdown fails and price recovers above zero line and consolidation resistance.
Neutral/Trend Logic
Zero Line (114,891):
Acting as a pivotal point; hourly close above it favors continuation of uptrend, while failure to hold may result in quick reversion.
Rising trendline support and strengthening volume confirm buyers are in control, unless price slips below 114,432.
This structure supports disciplined setups for both breakout and reversal trades, with each scenario anchored by logical risk management and intraday targets.
Follow Chart Pathik for more Bullion related updates.
Gold Futures – 1H Demand Zone Retest | Bullish Setup📊 Trade Breakdown:
Pair: Gold Futures (MGC1!)
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Bias: Bullish
Type: Demand Zone Retest
Entry: Waiting for bullish engulfing confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3770 demand zone
Take Profit:
• TP1: 3785
• TP2: 3813
Risk-to-Reward: ~1:2–1:3 depending on entry, but the overall target is 1:1!
⸻
📌 Key Confluences:
• Price broke previous structure high, confirming momentum shift
• Fresh 1H demand zone left behind after breakout
• Waiting for retest + signs of rejection before executing
• Bullish engulfing candle will be my trigger
• Trend bias still showing strength intraday
⸻
⚙️ Trade Setup:
Plan is to let price come back into demand, reject cleanly and print a bullish engulfing candle. That’s when I’ll look to execute long. Stop will be tucked below the zone around 3770 to keep risk defined. First target set at 3785 (recent structure) with extended target at 3813 (previous high/supply zone).
If the zone fails or no bullish confirmation shows, the setup is invalid and I stay flat.
⸻
🧠 Mindset:
Patience is everything. I’d rather wait for price to come back to me than force a trade. No FOMO. Clean invalidation, clean R:R. Confidence comes from the structure break and demand zone. Trusting the process and letting the trade play out on my terms.
“Trade Simple, Live Lavish”