Trade ideas
XAGUSD retreated from recent highs. Could we see a rebound here?Silver prices fell, posting their steepest daily drop since 2021, as profit-taking and a firmer US dollar weighed on the market. The ongoing US government shutdown has created a data vacuum, limiting insight into trader positions in silver futures. Despite the short-term pullback, long-term fundamentals remain supportive, driven by strong industrial demand and potential Fed easing. In the near term, US dollar strength and stabilizing Treasury yields may cap silver's upside.
XAGUS is testing support at 48.00, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. A rebound above this level may prompt prices to retest the swing high at 54.20 and the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension. If XAGUSD breaks the 54.20 resistance, the price may resume its uptrend and approach the psychological level at 60.00. Conversely, closing below 48.00 may prompt a deeper retracement toward the following support and channel's breakout zone at 45.00.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
The ratio of Silver / M2 reached an important resistanceThe ratio of Silver / M2 (x$1T) has reached an important resistance last Thursday. It also reached rare overbought condition (see the monthly RSI14 at the 78 resistance area). It is now due for a consolidation phase, support seen near 0.18 (implying a pullback of about 18% to $44 from the recent high of $54 on silver. This could take a few months (normally, but who knows) before exploding above the down trend line towards the 0.53 area. In summary, the rise of silver has just started.
Silver rally: Are you in?Silver (XAGUSD) just hit a new all-time high, soaring above $53/oz! The surge is driven by a real physical shortage in London (record-low LBMA stocks, spike in lease rates, and COMEX premium), flight to safety amid dovish Fed expectations and gold’s rally, and booming industrial demand from solar energy and electronics. A short squeeze is also underway due to the rising cost of borrowing silver.
5 key drivers behind the XAGUSD bull run:
1. The market is short on metal – demand consistently outpaces supply.
2. Physical squeeze in London – inventories are depleted, spot trades above COMEX, borrowing costs surge.
3 . Industrial super-demand – energy transition fuels silver use in solar, electronics, and EVs.
4. Dovish macro backdrop – Fed rate cuts expected, weaker USD, inflows into safe havens.
5. Capital inflows – silver ETFs and bullion/coin demand picking up momentum.
FreshForex analysts see further upside: the breakout to new highs confirms strong demand for physical silver and sustained investor interest. The rally in gold and robust industrial trends give the silver market breadth and staying power. Q4 2025 offers great potential for active traders, but the strongest move is expected in Q1 2026 , as Fed policy loosens and supply remains tight
Silver BUY Region 40-42$Above chart overlays previous BULL cycle of Silver on the current time frame.
Commodities are having bull run, Silver has broken previous all time high and likely to go higher upon consolidating near all time high.
Silver might consolidate and may drop 40-42$ (in December). It will likely continue the bull cycle for couple of years.
Why?
- Expensive Gold will make Silver an attractive choice for Jewelry, Industrial use and with increasing electronics its demand is likely to go up.
- As China will continue to rise and replace USD as reserve currency, hence (in next 5-10 years) all hard assets will be safe heaven for wealthy Americans (Land, Gold, Silver, etc).
- USA is expected to print ~4TN Dollar in next 3 years (with Quantitative easing) to pay interest on debt.
Parabolic pipedream (cont'd)This is an update to my parabolic pipedream idea. I have adjusted the parabola slightly. We now have two touch points on the parabola.
- Middle point was moved to the recent low from Tuesday Oct. 21 2025
- Upper point moved to adjust trajectory (now we have two touches on the parabola)
My thought is the more spots we can get it to touch the parabola the more accurate it should be, and the more confidence I personally have about the idea.
Invalidation: I think the way this idea is invalidated is either by trading sideways too long or a horrific crash through parabola making it impossible to draw anymore. If it no longer can be portrayed as a parabola, we have lost.
Again I am not a trader, I am not a TA expert, I am just a noob watching Silver and making predictions. My track record is pretty bad, I would advise against trading on any of my ideas.
(some TA expert is looking at this and shaking their head lol)
Silver Squeeze – Risk Reversals and Dollar Strength Sets InSilver has broken lower after recent highs, with the much-anticipated “silver squeeze” losing momentum. The market is now facing renewed pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and broad risk-off sentiment, as investors trim exposure to commodities and metals.
The weekly close will be crucial — a bearish candlestick could confirm further downside potential, opening the door toward the USD 40.00 area, a key technical support zone.
Several factors are currently weighing on Silver:
- DXY rebound: The U.S. Dollar Index has bounced from support, attracting safe-haven demand and pressuring metals.
- Higher real yields: As inflation expectations ease, rising real yields make precious metals less attractive.
- ETF outflows: Institutional investors are trimming Silver ETF holdings, reducing speculative support.
- Weakness in industrial metals: A slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector is dragging down sentiment for Silver, which also has industrial demand.
- Technical exhaustion: After repeated tests of the USD 53.00 zone, momentum faded, and a breakdown below short-term moving averages confirmed a shift in tone.
If the current move continues, Silver could test USD 40.00 in the coming sessions. Only a decisive recovery above USD 52.00 would ease the short-term bearish outlook.
Silver at critical resistance, is a great collapse next?Silver has a long history of dramatic price spikes, each coinciding with significant global macro events:
June 1980, the Hunt Brother’s squeeze sent silver parabolic before collapsing
March 2011, post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) stimulus + QE mania led to another blow off top
Present day, amidst chaotic politics and incomprehensible levels of debt price action is once again testing the same resistance zone around $50
This area has proven to be a multi-decade resistance. Each prior approach ended in a swift and brutal correction.
Technical analysis
Monthly chart: Price action has surged aggressively. 300% since the lows of 2020 to the $45-50 resistance band, mirroring the same vertical rallies of 1980 and 2011.
RSI: A long term descending RSI resistance line connects the 1980 and 2011 tops. Current RSI is once again colliding with this barrier, hinting at exhaustion.
Momentum: While silver is undeniably strong, history suggests the upside risk may be limited at these levels compared to the downside potential.
Risk reward breakdown
Upside potential: A clean breakout above $50 could open the door to a true price discovery phase possibly $60+ if silver enters a secular commodities super cycle.
Downside risk: Failure here would mimic the historic collapses:
1980: -90% drawdown
2011: -70% drawdown
A pullback to $25-30 would not be unusual, especially if macro liquidly tightens.
Trading strategy ideas:
Aggressive traders: Consider short setups or profit taking near the $50 resistance, with stops above $52-53 to manage risk.
Conservative traders: Wait for confirmation, either a monthly breakout or close above $50 (bullish) or a strong rejection signal.
Conclusion
Silver has once again like Gold reached historic levels. The risk/reward profile favours caution here on. History shows that vertical rallies into this level tend to end poorly for late longs. Unless silver breaks and holds above $50, the probability of a deep correction remains high.
Is it possible price action continues higher? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Pullback to 47 range then up in my opinionThis sell off is a perfect chance to add to your silver physical and miners...I think the pb will hit be to around $47 where it should find support. It could to down to the $44-$45 range but I think that would be the max for this pull back...good luck to all.
Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Bearish Momentum Dominates Amid CorrecSilver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Bearish Momentum Dominates Amid Correction
Silver prices have experienced a sharp decline today, dropping over 4.8% to hover around $49.88 after opening near $52.40. This pullback follows a recent surge that pushed the metal to all-time highs above $54 last week, driven by safe-haven demand and dovish Federal Reserve signals. However, profit-taking and reduced geopolitical tensions appear to be spurring the current reversal, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential in the short term.
Key factors influencing today's movement include:
- **Technical Breakdown**: The price has broken below a short-term ascending channel and key support at $50, signaling a shift from the prior bullish trend. Resistance now sits at $50.25–$51.50, while immediate support levels are at $49.20, with deeper targets around $47.50–$48 if selling pressure persists. A close below $49.80 could accelerate declines toward $45.50–$46 in the coming sessions. Overbought conditions from the rapid rally—evident in indicators like RSI dipping below 50 and a bearish MACD crossover—support this corrective phase.
- **Market Sentiment**: Real-time trader discussions highlight expectations of a multi-week correction after the historic bull run, with some eyeing a retest of $45 before any resumption of upside. Broader risk-off flows, including softer equity markets and a strengthening USD, are adding headwinds, though upcoming US economic data like the Leading Index could provide minor relief if it surprises positively.
- **Fundamental Context**: While long-term drivers like industrial demand (e.g., in solar and electronics) and inflation hedges remain intact, near-term forecasts suggest easing from peaks. Analyst views lean bearish for the session, with overall ratings classifying the pair as a "Strong Sell" based on moving averages and oscillators.
For the remainder of October 21, 2025, the direction appears downward, with potential for continued selling unless a rebound above $50 materializes by close. Traders should monitor for volatility around support zones, as a failure to hold could extend losses, while a false breakdown might trigger a quick recovery to $51–$52.
Silver Forms Classic Head & Shoulders Pattern: Wait for retestPrice was in a strong uptrend, with buyers clearly dominating. Each push higher showed strong momentum, but bullish strength started to fade.
The first pullback formed the left shoulder, showing early signs of hesitation. Buyers tried to regain control, pushing price to a new high, "the head", but that move lacked follow-through. This is a big clue.
When price pulled back again and formed a lower high, the right shoulder, sellers stepped in more aggressively. This was the first real sign that the trend might be shifting.
Once the neckline broke, it confirmed that sellers had taken control. A retest of the neckline could now serve as a perfect short entry point, anticipating a move toward around 47.000.
XAG/USD – SELL Entry (H1- Wedge Breakout Pattern)The XAG/USD Pair, Price has been trading within a Wedge Pattern on the H1 chart, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. Price action is now testing the upper boundary of the Pattern, signalling a possible breakout. OANDA:XAGUSD
✅Market Context:
1️⃣Strong Upward Structure Inside the Pattern.
2️⃣Buyers are showing strength near Resistance.
3️⃣Breakout above the Trendline indicates Momentum continuation toward higher zones.
✅Trade Plan:
Entry: Buy after Confirmed Breakout above the Resistance (H1 candle close above trendline or retest of the breakout).
💰Take Profit (TP): At the Key Zone – a Major Resistance area identified ahead.
🛑Stop Loss (SL): Below the Pattern Structure.
✅Psychological Discipline :
1️⃣Stick to plan – No Revenge Trades.
2️⃣Accept losing trades as Part of the Strategy.
3️⃣Risk only 1–2% of your account balance per trade.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex trading involves high risk. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose and always do your own research.
SILVER - Further Movement Up Idea for another surge up in silvers price to the top of this channel
I am using a bars pattern that shows similar price patterns to the current price action
Stretching this pattern out it can be used to plot a move upwards.
See if the moves are similar or not.
Weekly timeframe
SILVER BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 4,960.5
Target Level: 5,379.0
Stop Loss: 4,680.9
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Silver (XAGUSD) Setup — VWAP & Volume Profile Trade PlanXAGUSD Silver is in a strong bullish trend on the higher timeframes, but we’ve seen an aggressive short-term reversal 🔁. I’m using VWAP and Volume Profile to help plan my trade and identify value/support areas 📊.
If price remains above VWAP and shows support from the volume profile, I’ll look for a long opportunity — otherwise I’ll stay flat and wait for confirmation 🚦. Everything’s explained clearly in the video.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Bullish continuationSilver will likely retest the All-time high, with an intent to extend its growth. This growth after price action settled above the 50.6 barrier, which acted as a support. As long as price action is above this barrier 50.6 zone, potential targets would be 52.9, 53.4, and 54.5. However, if price action fails to reach those high areas and simultaneously falls towards the 50.6, a bearish insight will emerge.






















