SILVER trade ideas
XAGUSD (SILVER) BUY TRADE PLAN*PAIR & DATE:** XAGUSD – 29 Aug 2025
**PLAN OVERVIEW:**
* Category: Swing / Intra-Day Hybrid
* Trade Type: Breakout-Continuation (Buy)
* Direction: Buy
* Confidence: 78%
* Min R\:R: 1:3
* Status: VALID
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**MACRO ALIGNMENT NOTE:**
✅ WITH Trend & WITH Macro Bias — Precious metals supported by softer USD outlook, steady inflation expectations, and ongoing geopolitical hedging. D1/H4 structure remains bullish with recent higher lows; macro bias leans pro-metal on Fed rate-hold expectations and resilient commodity demand.
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**LEVELS CARD – PRIMARY SETUP (Higher Probability)**
* Entry: **38.70 – 38.80** (H4 demand & breakout retest)
* Stop Loss: **38.20**
* TP1: **39.40**
* TP2: **39.80**
* TP3: **40.20** (stretch target if USD weakness accelerates)
* Order: Market after confirmation (H1 engulf or strong bullish close off zone)
* Session Preference: London → NY overlap
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**ALTERNATE SETUP** *(Only if price sweeps major highs first)*
* Type: Tactical Short from overextension
* Entry: **40.10 – 40.20** (D1 supply / liquidity above swing high)
* Stop Loss: **40.55**
* TP1: **39.60**
* TP2: **39.30**
* Rationale: Sweep into unmitigated D1 supply with clean downside space before next demand.
* Macro Alignment: Counter Trend, Counter Macro Bias → reduced size 0.5–1% risk.
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**EXECUTION CHECKLIST:**
1. Avoid execution 15m pre / 30–60m post red USD or commodity data.
2. Price taps zone during London/NY overlap.
3. Confirmation: H1 engulf / BOS / pin rejection.
4. TP1 partial 30–40% → SL to BE.
5. Trail stops by structure after TP1.
6. Skip if no valid trigger or zone invalidated.
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**FUNDAMENTALS & NEWS:**
* CB Bias: Fed leaning rate-hold; no hawkish acceleration expected.
* Key Data (7d): US Core PCE, NFP; watch USD Index reaction.
* Cross-Asset Sentiment: DXY soft; gold firm; equities stable; yields easing.
* Positioning: COT shows net-long metals bias.
* Macro Lean: Bullish metals unless USD sentiment sharply reverses.
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**MARKET MAP:**
* D1/H4 Structure: Bullish; higher lows intact; breakout retest in play.
* Liquidity Pools: Above 39.80; demand base 38.70–38.80.
* OB/FVG: Clean H4 OB at entry; minor H1 imbalance aligning with zone.
* Play Type: Breakout-Continuation (Primary) / Sweep-Reversal (Alternate).
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**RISK & MONEY MANAGEMENT:**
* Risk per idea: 1–2% (Primary), 0.5–1% (Alternate – counter nature).
* Min R\:R: 1:3.
* Spread Filter: ≤ typical metal spread in active sessions.
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**CONFIDENCE (ONE SENTENCE):**
78% — Macro, USD weakness, and HTF bullish structure align for continuation; alternate short only valid if overextension hits unmitigated D1 supply with reversal trigger.
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**FINAL EXECUTION STRATEGY / PERSONAL NOTE:**
* **Primary:** Zone is fresh; first touch pending. Buy only with H1 bullish engulf from 38.70–38.80.
* **Alternate:** Only execute short on liquidity sweep + BOS at 40.10–40.20.
* No changes to original levels from initial plan. Stay flat if structure breaks below 38.20.
SILVER MOVE DOWN AHEAD|SHORT|
✅SILVER is about to retest
A key structure level of 39.50$
Which implies a high likelihood
Of a move down as some market
Participants will be taking profit
From long positions while others
Will find this price level to be
Good for selling so as usual we
Will have a chance to ride the
Wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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4 Step Explanation: What Is the Short Squeeze Mindset?Silver (XAG/USD) BUY Setup – Short Squeeze Mindset in Action 🪙📈
Silver is one of the most exciting assets to trade. It’s volatile, emotional, and attracts both institutional players and retail traders. But that same volatility can
often feel like a trap. One minute the price looks ready to fly, the next minute it pulls back sharply — leaving traders frustrated and shaken out of positions.
This is why you need a structured approach to trading Silver. Today, I’ll walk you through how the Short Squeeze Mindset gave me a BUY signal on XAG/USD and how you can apply the same process.
What Is the Short Squeeze Mindset?
The short squeeze mindset is about aligning the bigger picture trend with short-term traps.
On higher timeframes (like the daily chart), you look for trend direction.
On lower timeframes (like the 4H chart), you look for pullbacks that suck in shorts.
Once momentum flips back in favor of the trend, those shorts are forced to cover — fueling a breakout.
This isn’t just theory. It happens all the time in volatile markets like Silver. And right now, Silver is flashing a setup.
What Silver Is Showing Us Now 🚀
Daily Chart: Silver just printed a green bar 🟩, confirming that buyers remain in control.
4H Chart: At the same time, a red bar 🟥 appeared, luring short sellers into the market.
Result: Shorts think they’ve found safety, but in reality, they’re walking into a trap.
This mismatch between the daily green bar and the 4H red bar is the exact pattern the Short Squeeze Mindset looks for.
The 4 Steps for Silver BUY Setup
Here’s how I break it down:
1️⃣ Rocket Booster Strategy
Always begin by identifying strong trending markets. On the daily timeframe, Silver is pressing higher, showing bullish continuation.
2️⃣ Momentum Trading Style
Momentum is not just about one chart — it’s about flows. Precious metals are catching bids in line with broader commodity strength. Silver is participating in that momentum.
3️⃣ Short Squeeze Mindset
This is where the magic happens:
Daily = 🟩 Green (trend up)
4H = 🟥 Red (pullback trap)
Shorts load in on the red bar, but they’re trading against the larger bullish trend.
When price flips back up, their stop-losses fuel the breakout.
4️⃣ Stochastic Overbought Zone
Most traders panic when stochastic hits “overbought.” But in a squeeze, this is confirmation of strength. Silver can remain overbought for extended periods when buyers dominate.
How To Trade This Silver Setup 🔑
Here’s a practical breakdown of how to structure the trade:
Daily Confirmation
Daily bar is green = higher timeframe bias is BUY.
4H Pullback Trap
Shorts are entering on red bar 🟥.
This is where patient traders prepare to fade weakness.
Entry Trigger
Wait for a bullish candlestick reversal pattern on the 4H chart:
Bullish engulfing
Morning star
Hammer
Enter after confirmation, not before.
Profit Targets & Risk
Take Profit 1 (TP1): Previous daily swing high
Take Profit 2 (TP2): Major psychological level (e.g., $30)
Stop-Loss (SL): Below the most recent 4H swing low
What This Means 🌍
Silver’s volatility is often seen as a weakness, but with the Short Squeeze Mindset, it becomes your advantage. Instead of chasing breakouts late or panicking during pullbacks, you’re using volatility as a tool.
This means:
You’re trading in line with the higher timeframe trend.
You’re entering when shorts are most vulnerable.
You’re letting trapped sellers provide the momentum for your trade.
That’s how you turn volatility into confidence.
Final Thoughts
Silver (XAG/USD) is setting up for a BUY based on the Short Squeeze Mindset. By combining the daily bullish trend with the 4H pullback trap, you’re positioning yourself ahead of the breakout — not after it.
This is the type of setup you want to practice spotting again and again until it becomes second nature.
🚀 Keep this play in your trading journal.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Trading is risky. Always use proper risk management and test strategies on a demo account before trading with real money.
Is Silver Breaking Out?Silver hit a 14-year high last month, and now traders may think the white metal has further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since late July. XAGUSD pushed above that falling trendline today, potentially signaling a breakout.
Second, prices held the rising 50-day simple moving average. That may suggest its intermediate-term trend is still positive.
Short-term signals may paint a similar picture because the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. MACD could also be trying to turn higher.
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Silver Rallies Post 3 Wave Pullback, Aiming for New HighThe bullish cycle in Silver (XAGUSD), initiated from the April 2025 low, continues to unfold as an impulse pattern. Starting from that low, wave (1) peaked at 33.68, followed by a corrective dip in wave (2) that concluded at 31.65. Silver then surged in wave (3) to 39.52, with a subsequent pullback in wave (4) finding support at 36.2, as illustrated on the 1-hour chart. Currently, wave (5) is developing as a lower-degree impulse. For the bullish trend to persist without risk of a double correction, Silver must break above 49.52.
From the wave (4) low, wave ((i)) reached 36.8, and a brief pullback in wave ((ii)) stabilized at 36.34. The metal then climbed in wave ((iii)) to 38.5, followed by a correction in wave ((iv)) to 37.48. The final leg, wave ((v)), concluded at 38.73, completing wave 1 in a higher degree. A corrective wave 2 then unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. From the wave 1 peak, wave ((a)) declined to 37.7, wave ((b)) rallied to 38.26, and wave ((c)) fell to 36.94, finalizing wave 2. Silver has now resumed its ascent in wave 3. As long as the 36.2 pivot holds, expect Silver to continue rallying.
SILVER H9 | Market OutlookWhen you look at silver market has actually been in an uptrend for about three years. It’s very possible that we go sideways or correction for the short term. But over the longer term, it goes from the lower left to the upper right, and there’s really no way to dispute that.
SILVER What Next? SELL!
My dear friends,
SILVER looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 38.882 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 38.270
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical AnalysisThe price of silver is in a strong overall uptrend, with a downward corrective movement on the hourly timeframe. It's currently testing a support area at $38.40.
Bearish Scenario: If the $38.40 support area is broken and the price holds below it, it could push the price toward $38.00.
Bullish Scenario: If the price rebounds from the support area and successfully breaks above $38.70, closing above this level could support an ascent to retest the $39.00 area or even test $39.40.
SILVER: Weak Market & Bearish Continuation
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell SILVER.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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SILVER BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,880.2
Target Level: 3,627.7
Stop Loss: 4,048.6
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Silver Roadmap: Key Supply at 38.8 or a Breakout to 39.6?Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base).
Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision.
COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases.
Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal.
Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead.
🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation.
Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth).
A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
SILVER: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 38.918 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
A Short-Term Bearish OutlookIt seems the holiday of life is over. The market responded to Powell's Friday speech with a decent rise, but there was no significant movement, and in fact, it closed below 39.
Today, we’re already starting to drop.
Entering a short position seems reasonable; I think we should decline to the 50-day moving average, possibly even lower, but for now, the target is 37.35.
There’s no ammunition for continued growth, and it doesn’t seem to be coming anytime soon.
The chart setup is not looking particularly positive.
Short-term, the short idea is quite solid.
📝Trading Plan
🟢Entry: From the current level
🔴Stop: 39.10
🎯Target: 37.35
XAGUSD - ShortXAGUSD – SELL Setup
📊 H1 Timeframe Analysis by Nii_Billions
🔹 Outlook: BEARISH
Using multiple timeframe confirmation for direction.
Strategy blends technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment.
Entry, SL, and TP structured with risk management in mind.
🟢 Educational purposes only 🟢
❤️ Like & comment if this helps your trading journey.
👉 Follow for more swing trade ideas.
SILVER - High R/R, 3rd vol contractionExcellent Risk/Reward entry on Silver this morning, testing the bottom of a 3rd consecutive symmetrical triangle and the top of the previous consolidation area. Silver is again consolidating constructively above a breakout level with contracting volatility before the next move. Consistent with longterm macro bullishness on metals and continued technical uptrend. Tight stop below the 36.90 low or lower trendline. For longer term entry stop below the 31/7 low.
Any entry below the dashed midline provides excellent R/R, even to just to retest the July high.
Expect possible retest/liquidity grab on either trendline and/or midline post-breakout. May provide another high R/R entry.
4 hour RSI Oversold.
XAGUSD 4HIn this series of analyses, we have reviewed trading perspectives and short-term outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current asset price, and the market’s reaction or breakout at this level will determine the next price trend toward the specified targets.
Important note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to highlight significant levels ahead of the price and potential market reactions to these levels. The provided analyses are by no means trading signals!
SILVER (XAGUSD): Bearish Move From Trend Line
I see a test of a strong trend line on Silver on an hourly time frame.
A rapid growth stopped once the price approached that
and a consolidation started.
A bearish breakout of its support is a strong confirmation to sell.
I think that the market will retrace to 37,54
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