S&P Index Cash CFD (USD) Forum & Chats (VANTAGE:SP500)

6 hours ago

$https://SPXhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OBq2rL79/
She's probably headed to balance the auction and load up for the "Christmas rally"

As I said earlier, my target is 6,750. Will let you guys know if I exit early.

MerloClover-PugetPointCapital

12 hours ago

A conversation I had with a 40 year vet in global markets

🟢ME:
okay im sitting here thinking about this a little more.

what if... BTC is just the bridge to exchange currency across borders without having to jump through hoops. it seems weird that btc fell so hard as we prep for potential carry trade unwinds.

additionally, the crypto market is not regulated so im sure that holds value for large funds

we could probably map it out like btc vol correlated with fx market volume and vol

🟡Vet 1:
Hakim, it's been used for that exact reason to get money out of countries where there are financial restrictions.

🔵Vet 2:
I agree with Vet 1. From what I have seen crypto currencies are used to circumvent capital controls such those in place in China. It doesn't seem surprising that crypto currencies came under pressure as Beijing stepped up efforts to curtail their use by its citizens.

given the opaque nature of the Yen carry Trade estimated exposure is all over the place. Estimates from US banks tend to be the smallest and often put exposure in the 1-5T USD range. I believe that Deutsche Bank had one of the highest direct estimates (before second round of leverage) from a western bank at US$20-40T at some point in the past year or so.

According to Japanese analysts (which seem to have a better pulse on things) suggest exposure is between $10-50T USD w/o accounting for secondary leverage. It is important to note that these estimates often include swap agreements.

🟢ME:
you think they'll just park the cash or move the stash somewhere else in the world?

🔵Vet: 2:
If there is an unwind a substantial could head back to Japan. Unless banks look to allow many of the trades to remain in place with some derisking through hedges. But that would create other potential counter party risk issues.

Additionally, if there is a major unwind it would likely lead to a weaker USD. Which also has major implications for commodities.

🟢Me:
it plays into what the admin is trying to accomplish. i wonder how low they'll let it fall before they say something or do something to firm it up

🔵Vet 2:
If the USD weakens though it would stoke higher inflation. Which could mean rate hikes rather then cuts. Pretty complicated situation with many moving parts.

🟢ME:
unless demand absolutely gets obliterated like depression not recession

🔵Vet 2
Exactly.

kkhaledmaherr

13 hours ago

will it go any down before closing?

Alkindi14

13 hours ago

nice move by the indexes, but most stocks are just bouncing into downwards resistance. Bitcoin has confirmed a bear market on the weekly & monthly timeframes. Average draw down on indexes for mid term years is 12–15%.