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SP:SPX
by TradingView
15
SP500 Structure Shift: Sell Zone ActivatedHey Guys 👋 I’ve prepared an SP500 analysis for you. Since the market structure has shifted, I’ll be opening a sell position from my designated sell zone. 📌 Entry: 6,474.90 📌 Stop: 6,522.12 🎯 TP1: 6,459.79 🎯 TP2: 6,425.80 🎯 TP3: 6,371.54 RISK REWARD - 2,21 Every single like you send my way is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing these analyses. Big thanks to everyone supporting with a like 🙏
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by TraderTilki
22
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6600.Colleagues, the main idea is still the upward movement in the impulse of the middle wave “5”. Wave “4” is likely to take place, because the bulls need to gain strength to update the local maximum of 6512. The most important thing here is that the target of 6600 is a round number, which is quite attractive for buyers and limit sellers. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
15
Early alert on SPX🚨 Early alert on SP:SPX The S&P 500 just broke down from a rising wedge , a pattern that has historically marked the end of several bull legs in this index. 📊 In the image below you can see: In one case, the wedge resolved with only a -4% pullback before the uptrend resumed. In the second one, the correction went much deeper at around -17% before stabilizing. 👉 A rising wedge is not automatically a BIG crash signal , but it is REAL a warning flag . Losing key supports could open the door to a larger correction, while a quick recovery would keep the broader bull structure intact. ⚠️ Stay vigilant, SPX has a history of respecting this pattern. This is just an early alert for you all! I'll be sharing in my newsletter more about rising wedges soon , I'm seeing many of them and that could mean that the bull trend, at least, needs a pause.
SP:SPXShort
by TopChartPatterns
8
THE FED'S SECRET INDICATOR JUST FLASHED REDHERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Federal Reserve has sent a clear signal this week: financial market conditions are deteriorating. After months of relative calm at a level of -0.53, the index rose on Wednesday, triggering the first "Risk Off" signal in an extended period. For institutional investors and risk-conscious traders, this is a moment that deserves attention. The NFCI is not just another technical indicator. It represents the most comprehensive assessment of American financial market conditions available. Over 100 different data points flow into its calculation: from credit conditions to volatility measures to banking sector stress indicators. When this index rises, it means liquidity conditions are deteriorating, credit risks are increasing, and financial market stability is under pressure. The historical evidence is clear. Both in 2008 and 2020, NFCI increases warned weeks before major market crashes of deteriorating conditions. The strategy of building defensive positions during NFCI rises has proven its effectiveness over long periods. While it doesn't deliver the spectacular returns of a pure buy-and-hold approach, it offers something far more valuable: capital protection in critical moments. BASE CASE SCENARIO Our base case assumes that the current NFCI rise marks the beginning of a typical correction phase. Historical data shows that such signals typically anticipate market declines of 10 to 15 percent over a period of three to six months. The correction would be driven by a combination of tighter credit conditions, increased volatility, and diminishing investor risk appetite. In this scenario, we expect the S&P 500 to retreat from its current level of approximately 6,470 points to a level between 5,500 and 5,800 points. This would correspond to a decline of about 10 to 15 percent, equivalent to a normal, healthy correction in an otherwise intact bull market. Recovery would begin once the NFCI starts falling again, signaling that financial market conditions are relaxing. This scenario is supported by the fact that the American economy remains fundamentally robust. Unemployment is low, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve still has room for monetary policy support. A moderate decline would correct overvalued areas of the market without triggering a systemic crisis. WORST CASE SCENARIO The more pessimistic scenario considers the possibility that the current NFCI rise is the beginning of a more serious financial market disruption. In this case, the index could continue deteriorating and reach values historically associated with genuine financial crises. A sustained rise over several weeks, especially if the NFCI reaches positive values, would indicate systemic problems. In this scenario, we would have to expect a market decline of 25 to 40 percent extending over 12 to 18 months. The S&P 500 would fall to levels between 3,900 and 4,900 points in this case. Such movements typically arise from a combination of credit squeeze, liquidity shortages, and self-reinforcing selling spirals. The triggers for such a scenario could be diverse: an unexpected escalation of the geopolitical situation, the bursting of a speculation bubble in an important market segment, or a revaluation of credit risks in the banking sector. The worst-case scenario would also mean that the Federal Reserve would have to respond with aggressive measures, which in turn could lead to longer-term structural changes in monetary policy. POSITIONING STRATEGY Given these scenarios, a graduated defense strategy is appropriate. The first line of defense consists of reducing existing long positions and taking profits. This is particularly important for overvalued growth stocks that suffer disproportionately in correction phases. The second stage involves building direct hedging positions. Put options on the S&P 500 with maturities of three to six months offer cost-effective protection against larger declines. Strike prices between 10 and 20 percent below the current market level should be chosen to achieve a balanced ratio between costs and protective effect. For more aggressive traders, direct short positions are also available, but with strict risk management. Short positions should not exceed 5 to 10 percent of the total portfolio and must be closed immediately upon a reversal of the NFCI signal. TIMING AND EXIT STRATEGY Timing is crucial for NFCI-based strategies. The index is updated only once weekly, meaning signals don't immediately react to daily market movements. However, this is a feature, not a bug. The weekly frequency filters out market noise and focuses on substantial changes in financial market conditions. The exit strategy is as important as the entry. As soon as the NFCI begins falling again, defensive positions should be gradually reduced. A decline of the index below its previous low would represent a clear "Risk On" signal and justify building new long positions. It's particularly important not to try to catch the absolute bottom. The NFCI strategy is designed to capture the big moves, not to trade every small fluctuation. Patience and discipline are more important here than precision. The current NFCI rise is a warning signal that should be taken seriously. While we cannot predict with certainty whether we are at the beginning of a small correction or a larger bear market, the historical evidence justifies defensive positioning. The combination of profit-taking, hedging strategies, and increased liquidity provides the best possible protection against the uncertainties that may lie ahead. At a time when many investors are blinded by ongoing market euphoria, the NFCI reminds us that markets are cyclical and that caution is often the better part of valor. Those who position defensively today will have the flexibility tomorrow to act from a position of strength when better opportunities arise again.
SP:SPXShort
by EdgeTools
3
Correlation Traps: When Diversification Isn’t DiversifyingYou thought you were diversified. You had tech, energy, crypto, gold — a little bit of everything. Then a single headline nuked your entire portfolio in one day. Welcome to the sneaky world of correlation traps. 🧩 The Diversification Myth Everyone loves to brag about their diversified portfolio. Some Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA here, Rocket Lab NASDAQ:RKLB there, maybe sprinkle in some Solana COINBASE:SOLUSD “for balance.” But if your carefully curated mix of assets moves in the same direction every time Powell says “Good afternoon” at a Fed event… are you really diversified? Or are you just collecting different-shaped eggs in the same basket? This is the correlation trap — the illusion of safety when your assets are secretly plotting against you. On paper, your portfolio says “hedged.” In practice, one bad CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI print, a tariff tweet, or an AI bubble hiccup can torch your entire P&L statement for the month. And it works both ways. When Powell signals cuts, everything rallies: stocks, crypto, commodities, even meme ETFs. Suddenly, your “balanced” portfolio becomes a leveraged bet on a single narrative. 📉 Positive Correlation = Double Trouble Correlation measures how two assets move relative to each other. Positive correlation means they tend to move together. That sounds fine on the upside — everyone’s a genius in bull markets. But when the markets get stressed, it doesn’t really matter if you’re holding traditional stocks or crypto assets. Here's an example. March 2020. The S&P 500 SP:SPX cratered. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD lost more than half of its value in a week. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD dipped. Even safe-haven treasury ETFs had a panic moment. When markets really go risk-off, assets that are usually uncorrelated can suddenly drop in sync. Why does this happen? Herd behavior, mostly. When traders, funds, and algos all unwind positions at once, correlations spike. In times of panic, cash is king. 🛡️ Negative Correlation = Your Actual Friend True diversification comes from mixing assets with low or negative correlation. Historically, think equities vs. treasuries, or stocks vs. gold. When risk assets like stocks get wrecked, safe-haven assets like gold often move up to soften the blow. But even these aren’t bulletproof anymore. Rising inflation, aggressive tariff broadside, and geopolitical headlines can disrupt traditional correlations. Traders relying on “old rules” learn quickly that markets evolve, and yesterday’s safe havens don’t always save you today. Traders often assume “low correlation” equals “zero risk” or “perfect hedge.” Not really. Low correlation can vanish during high-volatility events — exactly when you need it the most. Correlation creep is real — and unless you check, you could be risking more than you think. 🧠 Trading Psychology Meets Correlation Correlation traps aren’t just technical — they can mess with your thinking. Traders often overestimate how diversified they are, which breeds overconfidence. You assume your downside is limited… until a risk event wipes you out across positions you thought were independent. The result? Revenge trading . Over-sizing. Ignoring stop-losses. The correlation trap becomes a psychological spiral if you don’t plan your true exposure correctly. 🛠️ Avoiding the Trap: Practical Moves That Work Run the numbers. You’ve built out a perfect portfolio? Check where your picks are coming from and where they fit using the TradingView Heatmaps and Screeners . Diversify by driver, not ticker. If multiple assets react to the same narrative, you’re likely not truly diversified. Add true hedges. Bonds, gold, cash, and volatility products can help — but only if you size them correctly. Watch cross-asset flows. Use correlations between equities, commodities, FX, and crypto to spot when risk is clustering. The key takeaway? Diversification isn’t about owning “a little of everything.” It’s about owning different risk exposures. 👉 Bottom Line Diversification fails when you mistake quantity for quality. Five correlated trades don’t make you hedged; they make you levered without you knowing it. Correlation traps creep up quietly, especially during euphoric rallies when every chart goes up together. But when sentiment flips — and it does flip — you find out real quickly what’s actually diversified and what isn’t. Next time someone brags about holding “uncorrelated” assets, ask them one question: “Did they all move the same way on the last CPI print ?” If the answer’s yes, maybe it’s time to rethink what diversification really means. Off to you : How do you balance your portfolio? Or maybe you’re not after diversification and instead you’re chasing concentration? Share your approach in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
15
SP500 Futures Looks Reverse from support SP500 outlook On Wednesday, September 3, 2025, the S&P 500 rose by 0.5%, powered by substantial gains in Alphabet, which jumped over 9% following a favourable antitrust ruling. The Nasdaq also gained around 1%, while the Dow edged slightly lower by about 0.05%. Analysts viewed this as a clear win for Alphabet and Apple, prompting raised price targets and renewed optimism for the broader tech sector. S&P 500 futures climbed roughly 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures rose by about 0.7%, reflecting optimistic expectations for further upside. Fed officials signalled a possible rate cut, with investors pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut by the Fed meeting on September 17, 2025. The market now eyes Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report as the most critical release of the week, alongside the usual weekly data. SP500 support around 64.30 (though SPY is currently at 6430, the level might reflect a different index or instrument) is interesting—the upside momentum appears to be heading toward resistance near 6,505, You may find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by MrMartin_11
5
S&P500 Strong buy signal if the 4H MA200 holds.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back since the August 28 All Time High (ATH) and is headed for a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. This is a major short-term buy point as since April 25, every contact with this trend-line (6 so far) resulted into a new rally/ Bullish Leg. The last two in particular rose as high as the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. So as long as the 4H MA200 holds, that gives us a 6530 short-term Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
SPX – Fed Model vs Liquidity: Hawkish Hold Meets Negative FlowThe S&P 500 holds near 6,435, but the backdrop is shifting. Fed tone, liquidity, and sentiment are no longer aligned, leaving SPX caught between support and resistance. 1. Fed Model (AFDFM) Index = –2.78 → weak hawkish bias. Policy regime = easing, but signal shows a falling trend. Probabilities: Hold = 60%, Cut = 40%, Hike = 0%. Inflation easing (Core PCE 0.34%), unemployment stable (4.2%), but Fed Funds still elevated at 4.33%. Policy remains restrictive compared to the Taylor Rule (~1.8%). 2. Liquidity (BML) Net liquidity variation = –2.14% → negative. TGA high + RRP large = drain on market cash. Until liquidity turns up, upside momentum in equities stays capped. 3. Macro Risk Sentiment Risk On/Off index slipped back below 0 (–0.45). Summer highs near +1.5 showed strong appetite, but enthusiasm is fading. Without liquidity improvement, sentiment is unlikely to push higher. 4. SPX Levels Support: 6,350 → a break below risks 6,200. Resistance: 6,500–6,550 → needs liquidity improvement to sustain. Conclusion: Fed tone = dovish to neutral, but liquidity = negative. That divergence is why SPX is stuck near the highs. A liquidity flip (TGA drawdown, RRP decline) is the trigger for the next breakout. Until then, expect range trading between 6,350 and 6,500. Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice.
CBOE:SPX
by TheRealMongoose
1
SPX500USD is still going up slowlyHi traders, Last week SPX500USD finished the correction (Flat) and went up again just as I've said in previous outlook. Price is not very impulsive. It looks like it forms an ending diagonal. So next week we could see this pair slowly going up some more. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
S&P 500 to 7000 over the next 60 daysYeT another contrarian idea as so many on the platform publish S&P 500 “short” positions. Just as with the NASDAQ 100 idea, many paper hands were flushed out of the market earlier in the year. Now they wait with cash as the market grinds higher. Others throwing themselves into Put options. What next? First the basic question trend and support/resistance. The Trend Higher lows have been printed consistently since the April sell off. The trend is up. Support & Resistance Look left. Multiple levels of past resistance now confirm as support (blue arrows). How is it possible to be bearish? Sentiment As with the NASDAQ 100 idea, much of the retail market maintains a short bias with the Put/Call ratio far into the bearish territory. Historically, when put/call ratios spike above extreme levels, the S&P 500 rallies for weeks to months after. Why 7000? The breakout above the prior all time high of 6150 sent the market into price discovery. Selling pressure is largely absent with the April flush out leaving Wave 5 to develop. The uptrend channel will now not find resistance until the upper side of the channel, which is conveniently enough the Fibonacci 1.618 extension @ 7k. Why 60 days? Specifically this is a timeline defined by the US debt markets, which is for another post. Conclusion The S&P 500 climbs a wall of worry as confidence in the US markets evaporates. Loud bearish calls dominate the headlines, which is understandable. However the chart tells the real story: higher lows, confirmed supports, sentiment extremes, and extension forecasts all align with continuation. A move to 7000 area is very probable, what the market has in store afterwards is perhaps the bigger story, which is for another time. Is it possible for the market to correct to 6200 and below like many are calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
1
In September, the S&P 500 Index Reached a New All-Time HighIn September, the S&P 500 Index Reached a New All-Time High September is a month that statistically has the worst reputation for the S&P 500. However, in 2025 things may be different, as today the index hit a record high, rising above 6,520 points. Bullish sentiment is being driven by: → expectations of an interest rate cut in September, which is believed will give the US economy a positive boost (and increase corporate profits); → yesterday’s release of the ISM Services PMI (actual = 52.0, forecast = 50.9), which pointed to industrial growth; → strong corporate results – for example, Broadcom (AVGO) published a solid report yesterday. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart Analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 on 28 August, we: → identified a support zone below 6,370; → noted several bearish signals and suggested that 6,500 could act as psychological resistance (with a potential false bullish breakout). Indeed, since then (as shown by the blue arrows): → the price made a false breakout above 6,500; → then dropped to 6,370 to test the support zone; → after which it turned upwards again, forming a broad bullish engulfing pattern. New data allows us to refine the position of the short-term channel (marked in blue), with the following perspectives: → Bearish view: the price is close to the upper boundary of the channel, which already showed resistance this morning (highlighted by the red arrow) – the candlestick has a long upper shadow. → Bullish view: yesterday’s rally demonstrated signs of imbalance in favour of buyers (as detailed in the description of the Fair Value Gap pattern), and the breakout above 6,500 looks genuine (since the price is consolidating above it). Both viewpoints seem to be well-reasoned, but the market is unlikely to remain in balance, as today (15:30 GMT+3) the release of US labour market data is scheduled – arguably the key event of the week in the economic calendar. Depending on the figures, the S&P 500 might: → attempt to break through the upper boundary; → or retreat towards the median of the blue channel. Be prepared for volatility spikes. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
Bearish reversal setup?S&P500 (US500) has rejected off the pivot, which is a pullback resistance, and could potentially drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 6,467.13 1st Resistance: 6,508.59 1st Support: 6,425.16 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
1
Very Important TrendlineWatch the S&P 500 (SPX) rising trendline from the 05/23/25 bottom. SPX has found support at this line three times, a break below it could trigger a rapid drop to at least 5,900. Daily Stochastic has a bearish divergence at its all-time high and a bearish line cross. RSI has a double bearish divergence off its late July peak and has crossed below its moving average line. The Fibonacci .382 retrace of the April to August rally is at 5,871, broader support zone is 5,930 to 5,780. U.S. stocks are seasonally bearish from August to October. September is statistically the most bearish month.
SP:SPXShort
by markrivest
US 500 – Preparing for the Pivotal US Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseAfter a slow start to trading in September due to the US Labour Day bank holiday on Monday, volatility for US indices has picked up across the week as traders react to multiple drivers, including concerns about the sustainability of government debt in the US, Europe and the UK which weighed on sentiment Tuesday, big tech getting a key win in one of the biggest anti-trust cases for years which provided support off the lows, and updates on the current health of the US economy and labour market, including a slightly disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey on Tuesday, and a weaker than expected JOLTs Job Openings report on Wednesday afternoon. Unsurprisingly, the different responses to these drivers has seen the US 500 index trade from a Monday high of 6483 to a low of 6363 on Tuesday and then move back higher again to current levels around 6450 (0700 BST), as traders cautiously initiate fresh risk positions to kick off the start of September. However, it could be said that the two biggest data releases of the week for traders to digest may still be to come. The first is the US ISM Services PMI which is released later today at 1500 BST. This reading surprised markets last month by falling below expectations to 50.1, just above the 50 level which separates economic expansion and contraction. Traders will be looking to see whether this new print confirms a trend of weaker service activity or if the July reading was just a one-off blip. Then on Friday, it’s the release that potentially every trader has been waiting for since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned concerns about the strength of the US labour market in his keynote speech from Jackson Hole, and noted how policymakers will be watching employment data closely to determine whether a rate cut at their meeting on September 17th would be appropriate to help support the economy. The outcome of the components of this release, including the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings could determine not only the direction of the US 500 into the weekend but how it performs across the early part of September, a month which is historically one of the worst for US 500 performance. Technical Update: Trend Extension or Trend Reversal? A bullish uptrend is defined by higher price highs and higher price lows, reflecting positive sentiment. Traders within this backdrop are seen to buy dips in price at a higher level each time and are able to push prices above the previous high. As the chart above shows, the US 500 index appears a classic example of an uptrend, with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows emerging since the April 7th low. While the US 500 index may currently be tracing out a bullish trend, further price strength isn’t guaranteed, especially with Friday’s payrolls data looming. This release has the potential to shift investor sentiment in either direction, so traders could find it useful to monitor key support and resistance levels closely. Potential Resistance Levels to Monitor: The recovery from the September 2nd low of 6363, which was above the prior August 20th low of 6347, suggests the uptrend remains intact, keeping the focus on the August 28th all-time high at 6512. A close above this level could signal further price strength. While no guarantee of continued upside, a break above 6512 may open a path towards 6775, which is the 100% Fibonacci extension, and potentially higher. Potential Support Levels to Monitor: If the US 500 index is maintaining an uptrend in price, the potentially important support focus is the August 20th low at 6347. A close below 6347 could see a negative shift in sentiment and increase the risk of a deeper decline. A close below 6347 might well be a trigger for renewed weakness, with potential then to test 6214, the August 1st low, and possibly further. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
SPX500 | Indexes Rise Ahead of JOLTS Data – Key Pivot 6,438S&P 500 & Nasdaq Futures – Update Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded on Wednesday, led by gains in Alphabet after its antitrust ruling. Dow futures edged slightly lower as traders await fresh labor market data. The focus today is the JOLTS report (10 a.m. ET), the first of several key releases this week, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday being the most important. Technical Outlook (SPX500): 🔼 Price reversed from the 6,366 support mentioned in yesterday’s update and has now stabilized above the pivot line at 6,438. As long as price holds above 6,438, upside momentum is expected toward 6,469 → 6,489, with extended resistance at 6,528. 🔻 On the downside, a confirmed 1H close below 6,420 would shift momentum bearish, exposing 6,389 → 6,361. Key Levels: Resistance: 6,469 – 6,489 – 6,528 Support: 6,420 – 6,389 – 6,361
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Bubble, No Bubble: Stocks Are So Back After Powell Cranks It UpStretched valuations, talks of froth, and overall market fatigue. That’s what investors were saying for stocks (especially those AI plays) up until Powell brought up the vibe that rekindled the animal spirits. Let’s talk about that. 📈 Powell Drops the Mic Markets started last week exhausted. The S&P 500 SP:SPX was wobbling, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC was shedding like your beautiful ragdoll cat, and traders were probably looking up vacation getaways instead of technical patterns. But then on Friday we all came together to hear one man speak . It was the same neutral, laid back tone, but this one time something was different. As if… a bolder man was on the stage, unafraid to crank it up. Or was it more of an elderly man finally giving the kids what they wanted? In his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed boss Jay Powell acknowledged what markets had been hoping to hear: “The risk of rising prices has diminished.” Translation? The Fed finally sees inflation cooling down. And the labor market might need some help, too. That was all it took. Risk appetite flipped, sending equities way higher into Friday’s close (even though Monday's futures dipped a bit ). The S&P 500 SP:SPX booked a solid 1.5% pop, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI surged 1.9% to a fresh all-time high, and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC managed to erase much of its weekly losses after a strong 2% increase. Powell didn’t cut rates yet — he just gave markets a few reasons to believe cuts are coming. 🚧 The Job Market Pivot Before Powell spoke, traders were bracing for maybe one rate cut this year, if any. Sticky inflation had the Fed cornered. But Powell flipped the narrative, shifting attention to the labor market instead. The US unemployment rate has climbed nearly a full percentage point over the past year, and job growth is slowing fast, averaging just 35,000 new positions per month over the past three months. Even worse, revisions stripped 258,000 jobs from May and June’s data. For traders, this was the lightbulb moment: a weakening labor market gives Powell the green light to pivot. 🔥 Inflation Still Isn’t Dead Here’s the awkward part: while Powell’s tone eased market fears, the inflation problem hasn’t magically vanished. Core CPI is still running 3% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target, even as the headline CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI stood at 2.7% for July . Meanwhile, wholesale prices ECONOMICS:USPPI — often a precursor to consumer price trends — surged 0.9% last month , marking their fastest monthly jump in three years. Powell is walking a tightrope: move too quickly on cuts, and inflation could flare up again; wait too long, and the job market weakens further. The stakes are high, and the balance fragile. 🎈 Bubble Talk, Again Every time stocks rip higher, the “bubble” debate resurfaces. And honestly? It’s hard to ignore it this time. AI stocks are priced like they’ve already rewired how the world works, and the Nasdaq’s relentless rally looks almost too clean. But here’s a reality check. We’ve never had a big market crisis for the past 16 years. March 2020? Recovered in a few months. April’s mini-crash? Erased in weeks. Markets seem determined to brush off every scare and buy the dip. Powell’s pivot only reinforced that attitude: traders don’t care about stretched valuations if the Fed is hinting at cheaper money ahead. 🤖 Nvidia’s Market, Nvidia’s Rules That’s how we move forward to what’s next. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA drops earnings on August 27 ( Earnings Calendar for reference). And because this is Nvidia’s market and we all live in it, expectations are sky-high. Analysts are projecting just under $46 billion in revenue and $1 per share in earnings . But the real focus? Forward guidance. If Nvidia signals a blockbuster Q3 — something in the ballpark of $54 billion in sales — it could keep fueling the AI mania and push the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to fresh highs. But if the numbers disappoint, this entire rally could wobble. Considering Nvidia has added more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023, it’s no exaggeration to say the stock’s earnings could set the tone for everything else. 🦁 Animal Spirits Are Back Powell’s softer tone and the Nvidia hype machine have combined to reawaken animal spirits across Wall Street. That makes for a good example on how you can shift from doom-posting about stagflation to refreshing the ATH charts in less than 48 hours. The S&P and the Dow are at or near record highs, the Nasdaq is eyeing another breakout. What’s not to like? The rally isn’t bulletproof. It’s being driven as much by vibes as fundamentals right now. Rate cuts haven’t happened yet, the labor market is fragile, and inflation hasn’t fully cooled. The market appears to be trading on optimism — and optimism can turn fast. 🏁 The Bottom Line Jerome Powell didn’t announce a rate cut, but he did something almost better: he opened the door a bit wider. By acknowledging softer labor data and reduced inflation risks, he revived traders’ appetite and gave permission to believe the rally has legs. But this story has two big hinges: Nvidia has to deliver, and inflation has to behave. One earnings miss or a hot CPI print, and this animal spirit revival could fade as quickly as it started. Off to you : Are you long and excited about the outlook? Or you’re in the bear camp and looking for your chance to short this market? Share your views in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
15
S&P 500 Under Pressure as Pivot 6,425 HoldsSPX500 – Overview The index dropped nearly 500 points (~0.9%), in line with the previous outlook, and continues to face bearish pressure as long as it trades below the pivot at 6,425. Technical Outlook: 🔻 Bearish scenario: While under 6,425, downside momentum remains intact toward 6,389 → 6,366. 🔺 Bullish scenario: A confirmed 1H close above 6,425 would shift momentum upward, targeting 6,442 → 6,468. Key Levels: Pivot: 6,425 Support: 6,389 – 6,366 Resistance: 6,442 – 6,468 Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX: NVIDIA shines; Jobs data aheadThe optimism on the US equity markets continued through the week, where the S&P 500 managed to achieve another all-time highest level this year, at 6.507. Friday brought some profit taking, where the index slipped by 0,64%, ending the week at 6.460. Some of the most important US macro data included the PCE, which was in line with market expectations at the level of 0,2% in July, while the second estimate of the GDP growth rate beat market expectations with 3,3% q/q, in relation to 3,0% estimated by market. NVIDIA was in the center of investors attention, due to the post of its quarterly results. The company delivered a standout second-quarter performance, with revenue soaring to $46.7 billion—up 56% year-over-year—driven largely by the AI-focused data-center segment, while also launching a massive $60 billion stock buyback program to return capital to shareholders. Despite the strong financials, the stock slid about 3% after hours, as investors voiced concerns around softer-than-expected data-center momentum and ongoing geopolitical exposure, particularly to China. Although the market generally remains optimistic, it should be considered that the week ahead is bringing two currently important indicators. These are related to Non-farm payrolls and JOLTs Job Openings. In case that some indicator deviates from market expectations, it might trigger short term higher volatility on US equity markets
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
1929 to Present day Trendline Channels The chart represents some very meaningful and powerful trendlines. I have magnetised these trend lines to be exactly on the peak of September 1929 and exactly on the peak March 2000. I drew these lines to the high of day on the given peak days in Sep 1929 and March 2000, combined with a line extension. (Meaning its not a manual placement this is the exact trendline channel) Trendline validation (how many times have we tagged it per month - it has also been tagged many more days): August 1929 September 1929 March 2000 November 2024 December 2024 January 2025 February 2025 When you zoom in to our present year/months/weeks/days, you can see we tagged the trendline November 2024 to February 2025. We have now broken above the trendline for July and August 2025. You will also notice a middle trendline this support formed on the 1st of March 1937 and acted as resistance until it broke through on the 1st of May 1995 about the time when everyone had a home computer and windows 95. This middle support held strong during the 2000-2003 dotcom crash The middle support broke during the 2008 financial crisis. However it regained its support in 2013 and then tagging it in the 2020 covid crash. Over nearly 100 years these channels have remained strong, it is honestly crazy to think we have now broken a 96 year old trendline in 2025. The question is does this trendline become support or resistance?
SP:SPX
by onlinenutrition