SPX trade ideas
$SPX All Time High’s in view // Last Friday review
Ok, this is a review of last Friday’s price action from the setup provided in the member video. We opened with a gap up and a rally to the top of the implied move. We actually took it to the top of the 30 day average volatility, which rounded out was 6390
So 6390/6400 bear call spreads paid.
ATH’s not to far away here.
Dot Com Crash CorrelationThe following is a fractal of the lead up to the Dot Com crash, and the aftermath. It correlates extremely well with the current landscape. The TLDR is that if history repeats and we break the trendline, we'll form a blow off top in 2026 and crash spectacularly in 2027 (I'm guessing around May, a common dump month). If everyone is calling for the crash now, it means it's not over yet.
It's time to face the music. AI isn't profitable, it's an excuse to fire workers with high salaries. When there is no one left to fire and productivity/quality drops the answer will be clear: A program that is wrong 20% of the time is completely useless. The errors are a feature, not a bug, the AI can not work without hallucinating and hallucinating causes errors. Look it up if you don't believe me
Fundamentals:
-Rate cuts will keep this alive long enough to form a blow off top
-Extreme uncertainty from tariffs to manufacturing can account for that mid term drop
-AI Companies holding up the market make 0 net profit and have no realistic plans to make ROI
-The vast majority of AI companies have not made ROI
-Generative AI costs more to run than it makes. By their own very flawed estimate, OpenAI will take over 10 years to break even. In related news, snapchat just made ROI and they were founded in 2011, their stock is down 90%.
SPX 6500 6666 7000Hello Traders,
Here is my latest Fib, Channel, Trendline, and Price Targets SPX Timeline. Lets see how this plays out.
Big CorrectionThe S&P index.
The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low.
Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there.
After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026.
This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
SPX500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISSPX500 has broken above the recent range, reclaiming the 6,351.41 resistance. Price is now pushing into the 6,380.00 zone, with buyers showing control after a strong recovery from the 6,222.46 low.
Support at: 6,351.41 🔽 | 6,324.08 | 6,296.93
Resistance at: 6,380.00 🔼 | 6,409.21 | 6,438.44
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustained trading above 6,351.41 opens the door toward 6,409.21 and higher.
🔽 Bearish: A close back below 6,351.41 may trigger a retest of 6,324.08 and 6,296.93.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
S&P Fibonacci based Accumulation/Distribution rangesFibonacci-Based Zones: The chart is structured around support and resistance zones derived from Fibonacci analysis, providing natural levels for market reaction.
Accumulation Zone: Lower price area (~4,133.94 and above) where buyers show interest and trend reversal is often seeded.
Trading Range: The broad mid-section where price is expected to oscillate, indicating indecision or equilibrium among buyers and sellers.
Distribution Zone: Upper price band near the Goldman Sachs 2025 target, as marked, where profit-taking and seller interest increases.
Potential for Parabolic Move: If price decisively breaks out above the distribution/resistance zone, it could trigger rapid, euphoric buying—a classic market melt-up.
Risk of Downside: Falling below the key Fibonacci support level could prompt a sharp correction,.
Historical Validation: Past price movements respect these zones.
Warning: SPX500 May Have Peaked—Here’s What the Charts SayThe S&P 500 (SPX500) may have reached its peak. In this video, I reveal the technical evidence pointing to a potential reversal—including monthly bearish divergence, daily and weekly reversal candles, and confirmation from key indicators.
This isn’t just noise—these signals align across timeframes, suggesting a shift in momentum that could lead to significant downside. I’ll walk you through the charts, explain the implications for traders and investors, and highlight critical support levels to watch.
Thank you for watching and have a great trading week. Cheers!!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 8, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading activity of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a predominantly bullish trend and is poised to retest the completed Outer Index Rally target of 6420, as outlined in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. The primary objective now is to target subsequent levels, specifically the next Outer Index Rally target of 6620 and beyond.
It is crucial to recognize that the current price movement may initiate a substantial pullback from the present price action, either before or following the attainment of the Outer Index Rally peak at 6420.
Watching July 31 High and August 1 Low - Key LevelsUS Inflation Next Week (CPI and PPI)
Will August re-test highs with momentum? Or test and fade?
MAGS back to highs.
AAPL has one of the best weeks since 2020's post covid crash recovery (WILD).
I still like long assets, but playing the game with discipline and patience.
Enjoy the weekend. Looking forward to the grind next week.
Thanks for watching!!!
-Chris
The Stock Market History Says…The Stock Market History Says…
When Capital Rotation Events (CRE) hit, stocks stall & gold outperforms.
Past (1949, 1974, 2009) hints at a retest of the 300-month MA before the next big leg up, maybe around 2036.
Watch GOLD vs SPX for the signal.
Lower High Complete?OFC earnings provided buys a good level to pick up price but POC at 6375 was key.
The 4HR shows and englufing with LH partially complete.
Bias is Short!
S&PS&P 500 waiting for overbought of 240 min. If it pass 6427 net resistance is about 6615. at this resistance there is a chance to drop 1 oversold of timeframe 240 min. however, it is on a long up trend, which the mid period target is 6952 (2-4 months). however, during this period it may go direcly to 6952 or down for 1 oversold of timeframe day or 240 min is OK. Note that the very importance supporting line,which should not be lower is at 4841. if it not fall below this point. S&P still on the uptrend.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-08-2025ETH session has rallied to 61.8 Fibonacci level of yesterday's RTH session. Any test of ETH session High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 6384 --- 6386
This V-Pattern on SPX500 Is Stupid CleanHey, it’s Skeptic.
In this video, I’m breaking down a clean V-pattern setup on SPX500 — right in line with what I taught in yesterday’s educational post.
We’re starting from the Daily time frame and walking through the logic behind my long trigger, why the previous fakeout was actually useful, and how to set your stop-loss depending on your trading style (H4 vs 15min).
This isn’t just chart talk — it’s about reading the story behind the candles.
If it helped you see things clearer, give it a boost and drop your thoughts below.
Let’s keep learning — one trap at a time.
Until next time, peace out.
📌 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
SPX500 at Key Pivot – Bearish Below 6365, Bullish AboveSPX500 – Market Overview
U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after President Donald Trump’s temporary pick for a Federal Reserve governor boosted expectations for a more dovish central bank board.
Technical Outlook
Stability below 6365, we expect a move down toward 6341.
A 1H close below 6321 would likely extend the bearish trend toward 6301.
A 1H close above 6365 could trigger a push toward 6389.
A confirmed break above 6389 would shift the bias to bullish, targeting 6425 and 6453.
Pivot Line: 6365
Resistance: 6389 – 6425 – 6453
Support: 6341 – 6321 – 6301
Activation of the rounded pattern? Or a trend reversal?In the previous analysis, we mentioned that the price was at a decision point — and it made its decision, managing to move up slightly before returning to the bottom of the channel.
Now, at the end of the channel, a pattern has formed. We need to see whether it gets activated or turns out to be a fake.
If the pattern fails (turns out fake), the bullish trend could continue more strongly.
S&P 500 extends drop - can dip buyers come to rescue again?After a decent rally earlier in the day, the major indices and futures started to ease off around mid-morning London trade, before easing further lower in the last couple of hours.
At the time of writing, the S&P was testing its session lows. Here it was probing support and a short-term bullish trend line in the 6319-6331 range. This area needs to hold to keep the bulls happy and in charge. Break this and we could see a bigger correction in the days ahead.
Resistance now comes in at 6372 followed by 6,400.
By Fawad Razaqzada, markets analyst with FOREX>com
US500: Rebound Setup After Sharp Pullback – Key Support HoldingUS500 has experienced a strong corrective move after an extended bullish run but is now showing signs of stabilizing near a key support area. This zone aligns with both technical retracement levels and the market's reaction to fundamental shifts—particularly the dovish repricing of the Fed following weak US jobs data.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Pattern: After a strong uptrend, price faced a steep correction, forming a potential short-term reversal setup.
Current Level: 6,235, holding above the 6,217 support zone.
Key Support Levels:
6,217 (immediate support; key defense zone for bulls).
6,171 (38.2% retracement, secondary support if deeper pullback occurs).
Resistance Levels:
6,272 (23.6% retracement and initial resistance).
6,360 (upper resistance zone and retest of recent breakdown).
6,429/6,436 (recent high and target if bullish momentum resumes).
Projection: A rebound from current levels could push US500 back toward 6,360–6,430 if support holds.
Fundamental Analysis
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish as macro drivers favor a recovery from pullback.
Key Fundamentals:
Fed Policy: Weak US jobs (+73K) and downward revisions have solidified rate cut expectations (~75% probability in September), boosting equity sentiment.
Inflation: Market awaits US CPI; softer data would further support equities.
Tariffs: While Trump’s tariffs create a medium-term risk for earnings, immediate Fed easing bets outweigh these concerns.
Risk Sentiment: Global risk remains supported by lower yields and optimism about Fed easing.
Risks:
Hot US CPI could reverse cut expectations, pressuring equities.
Geopolitical risks or tariff escalation could trigger renewed selling.
Key Events:
US CPI and PPI.
Fed speeches and rate expectations.
Earnings reports from key US companies.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
US500 is a leader, driving global risk sentiment and influencing risk-sensitive assets like AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and JPY crosses.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
US500 is neutral-to-bullish, stabilizing at key support (6,217) after a sharp correction. Fed cut expectations and risk-on sentiment support the upside scenario, targeting 6,360–6,430 if US CPI aligns with softer inflation. However, a hot CPI print could invalidate this rebound and trigger another leg lower.
US500 one last leg upI do not want to sound 100% like David Hunter, but I recon max upside in this cycle is approaching and will be somewhere between 7000$ to 7400$, from there a correction of at least 25% is very likely
SPX500 - what's next?Further to my previous idea on SPX.
SPX respected the Resistance at FR 161.8 at 6400.
Price went down and reverted form SMA200 (4H)
Now price has completed the Perfect Gartley Pattern and reached point D.
If (against fundamentals) price reverts down from there and breaks down through SMA50 (4h), I will consider it as Bearish Validation and I will expect correction movement, which cen go down to ca 6000.
Just my humble opinion
