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SPX trade ideas

SPY / S&P TOO HOT....gravity is strongMore traditionalist here and following technicals (macro-level). We see insane PE / CAPE ratios, higher than dot.com, most expensive stock market ever, and weakening economy. Not being fooled by tech companies buying from each other with CAPEX (100% depreciation). Correction will happen faster than people think! It's easy to get pumped up by the narrative, but the real story is not good and media outlets like CNBC / FoxBusiness are spinning good stories that are mostly opinions with zero fundamentals or historical context. Best of luck! Add CBOE:UVIX CBOE:MSTZ CBOE:BTCZ to your portfolio before they spike
SP:SPXShort
by antonini2002
3
S&P 500 | H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello Traders, Similar to the Dow Jones setup, the US500 is also showing a rising wedge pattern. Yesterday, price broke to the downside and is now retesting the wedge — a classic technical setup. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/Reward: 5.4 Entry: 6 653.6 Stop Loss: 6 676.8 Take Profit: 6 526 🧐 Market Overview: Rising wedges are typically bearish continuation/reversal patterns, and the current retest provides an opportunity to align with that probability. That said, wedges can fail, especially around major news events, so risk management is key specially with markets being bullish after the fomc announcement. 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: When trading wedge retests, always allow the market to confirm direction. A strong rejection on the retest adds confluence and avoids false breakouts. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts — I’d love to hear them. 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GTradingMethod
6
S&P 500 Outlook: Bearish Pullback While Under 6,634SPX500 – Technical Overview The S&P 500 recorded a new all-time high at 6,633 as markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week. Futures remain supported by expectations of a 25 bps cut, while traders await Powell’s commentary for guidance on inflation, labor-market weakness, and tariff risks. Monday’s rally to record highs was fueled by optimism around U.S.–China trade talks, strong tech performance, and fresh gains in gold and mining stocks. Technical Outlook 📉 Bearish correction: While price trades below 6,634, a near-term pullback is favored. Downside targets: 6,605 → 6,590, with deeper support at 6,571 if selling pressure accelerates. 📈 Bullish continuation: A confirmed 1H close above 6,634 would reassert bullish momentum. Next upside targets: 6,662 → 6,700. 📌 Market Context: The Fed’s meeting and Powell’s tone remain the primary catalysts. A dovish message or stronger-than-expected cut could fuel a breakout above 6,634 toward new highs, while a cautious or hawkish stance may encourage a deeper correction before the next bullish leg.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
New all-time high in global financial liquidity1) The Fed has unveiled its new monetary policy trajectory, here are the key takeaways: - Federal funds rate cycle through the end of 2025: there should be a total of 3 rate cuts by year-end. - Update of macroeconomic projections: The Fed acknowledges the slowdown in the labor market and still expects inflation to normalize during 2026, allowing time to absorb the impact of tariffs. - Balance of power among the 12 voting FOMC members: 11 out of 12 voted for a 0.25% rate cut, with only Stephen Miran voting for a jumbo Fed cut. In the end, Jerome Powell’s Fed has thus enacted a genuine monetary pivot to account for the labor market slowdown, while remaining cautious about the upcoming normalization of inflation. The more accommodative monetary trajectory announced should provide support for risk assets in the stock market, but upcoming U.S. employment and inflation updates will still have a strong impact. 2) Global liquidity hits a new all-time high, a supportive factor for risk assets Correlation studies show that risk assets in the stock market are highly correlated with the trend in global liquidity, i.e., the sum of the money supplies of the world’s major economies. Simply put, when the underlying trend of global liquidity is bullish, the S&P 500 and bitcoin prices also follow a bullish trend, and vice versa. There are several ways to represent a country’s money supply, and the M2 monetary aggregate is recognized as the best measure of available liquidity within a state. Global M2 liquidity is calculated by aggregating the money supplies of major economies, notably the United States and China, converted into U.S. dollars (USD). The dollar’s evolution directly influences this measure: a strong dollar reduces global M2 in USD terms, while a weak dollar increases it, affecting capital flows and global financial conditions. While global M2 liquidity is decisive, the net credit capacity within the financial system also plays a major role. When this is added to global M2, you get global liquidity — and this has just reached a new all-time high, as shown in the chart attached to this article. This should therefore be a supportive factor for the stock market through year-end. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
S&P500 | H2 Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders, Watching the S&P for a potential double top. It also aligns with the retest of the rising wedge, which is has already broken to the downside. This kind of confluence gives me extra excitement about a trade. What I still need to happen for me to open the trade: - H2 candle close in the entry range - H2 candle that closes in the range needs a certain closure rate - RSI needs to create another divergence - Volume needs to be lower on T2, although my system does give exceptions if there is a data release, in this case FOMC, so exception will likely apply. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/reward = Between 3.3 and 4.3 Entry price = Between 6630 and 6639.9 Stop loss price = Between 6649.2 and 6656.8 Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6576 Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6553 I would ideally like my stop loss above the rising wedge, that way it needs to break through both barriers. Also, if this pattern plays out, I think it will drag the crypto market down with it... Unfortunately. 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: Always predefine your risk before entering a trade. This is a non negotiable to becoming a professional trader. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me for updates and let me know in the comments — do you see the wedge retest as bearish, or do you think the bulls have more room to run? 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only. Peace G
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GTradingMethod
What to do now that FEDs going to lower interest rates ?This is for traders who enjoys taking advantage of short term market movements. For investors who are holding on to great companies, just sit tight. The first support level is the gap at 6023 price level. The 2nd level at 5689 is less likely but not impossible. This fall will be good as US markets are over valued for a while and any falls will be a good accumulation point. Also, the month of September is also seasonally a down month so no hurry to get in. So do be patient and please DYODD.
SP:SPXShort
by dchua1969
Sea Routes & Supply Chains1. The Historical Foundation of Sea Routes 1.1 Ancient Maritime Trade Maritime trade is as old as civilization itself. The Phoenicians of the Mediterranean (around 1500 BCE) mastered navigation and spread commerce across North Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Europe. The Silk Road by sea connected China, India, Arabia, and Africa, long before modern globalization. Spices, silk, and precious stones moved across oceans, shaping cultures and economies. In South Asia, the Indian Ocean trade system linked ports from East Africa to Southeast Asia. Seasonal monsoon winds powered dhows and junks carrying pepper, gold, and textiles. 1.2 Age of Exploration and Colonization The 15th and 16th centuries marked a turning point. European powers—Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, and later Britain—sought new sea routes to bypass land-based trade monopolies. Vasco da Gama’s voyage to India (1498) opened Europe to Asian spices. Columbus’s Atlantic crossing linked Europe with the Americas. Britain’s mastery of naval power allowed it to dominate maritime routes, turning sea trade into imperial control. Sea routes became instruments of wealth and power, laying the groundwork for today’s globalized supply chains. 2. Sea Routes: The Arteries of Modern Trade 2.1 Major Maritime Routes Modern maritime trade relies on established routes shaped by geography and economics. The Suez Canal Route: Connecting Europe and Asia via the Mediterranean and Red Sea. It shortens the Europe-Asia journey by nearly 7,000 km compared to circumnavigating Africa. The Strait of Hormuz: A narrow chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. The Strait of Malacca: Linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, this is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. The Panama Canal: Vital for connecting the Atlantic and Pacific, especially for trade between the Americas and Asia. The Trans-Pacific Route: Connecting East Asian manufacturing hubs (China, Japan, South Korea) with North American markets. The Trans-Atlantic Route: Linking Europe and North America, critical for goods, energy, and raw materials. 2.2 Strategic Chokepoints These routes rely on chokepoints, narrow maritime passages that, if disrupted, can cripple trade. The Strait of Hormuz, Malacca, and Bab el-Mandeb are classic examples. Piracy, blockades, or accidents in these areas can trigger global economic shockwaves—as seen when the Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal in 2021. 2.3 Cargo Diversity Sea routes transport a staggering variety of goods: Bulk commodities: oil, coal, iron ore, grains. Containerized goods: electronics, apparel, machinery. Liquefied gases: LNG and LPG. Specialized cargo: cars, chemicals, refrigerated food (reefer containers). The efficiency of sea routes lies in their ability to handle massive volumes cheaply compared to air or land transport. 3. Supply Chains: The Skeleton Behind Sea Routes 3.1 What Is a Supply Chain? A supply chain is the entire process of sourcing, manufacturing, and delivering goods. It includes suppliers, factories, warehouses, transport hubs, shipping lines, and retailers. Sea routes act as international connectors within this chain. 3.2 Globalization and the Rise of Complex Supply Chains From the late 20th century, businesses adopted “just-in-time” production to minimize inventory and reduce costs. Manufacturers sourced parts globally, relying on efficient shipping. For example: A smartphone may have components from South Korea, semiconductors from Taiwan, assembly in China, and final sales in the U.S. Automakers source steel from Brazil, engines from Germany, and wiring harnesses from Mexico. Sea routes enable this complex web, making supply chains international in scope. 3.3 Containerization Revolution The introduction of the shipping container in the 1950s revolutionized logistics. Standardized containers allowed goods to move seamlessly between ships, trains, and trucks. This reduced theft, increased efficiency, and lowered shipping costs dramatically. Today, mega-container ships can carry over 20,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units), making sea transport the backbone of global supply chains. 4. Geopolitics of Sea Routes and Supply Chains 4.1 Naval Power and Trade Control Sea routes are not just commercial pathways but also strategic assets. Countries with strong navies—like the U.S., China, and historically Britain—use maritime dominance to secure trade. Control over chokepoints gives nations leverage in global politics. 4.2 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) China’s Maritime Silk Road, part of the BRI, seeks to expand its influence by investing in ports and shipping infrastructure worldwide. From Gwadar in Pakistan to Piraeus in Greece, China is reshaping maritime geopolitics. 4.3 Trade Wars and Supply Chain Shifts U.S.–China tensions have exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains. Companies are “China+1” strategies, diversifying manufacturing to Vietnam, India, or Mexico. Yet, all these shifts still depend on sea routes for global distribution. 4.4 Vulnerability to Conflict Conflicts in Ukraine, the South China Sea, or the Middle East can disrupt supply chains. Sanctions and blockades weaponize trade routes, showing how economic security is intertwined with geopolitics. 5. Challenges Facing Sea Routes and Supply Chains 5.1 Disruptions Pandemics: COVID-19 exposed supply chain fragility when ports shut down, containers piled up, and shipping costs soared. Piracy: Particularly in the Gulf of Aden and parts of Southeast Asia. Climate Change: Rising sea levels, stronger storms, and melting Arctic ice are reshaping routes. 5.2 Environmental Concerns Shipping contributes about 3% of global CO₂ emissions. Heavy fuel oil pollutes air and oceans, prompting stricter environmental regulations. The push for green shipping—using LNG, hydrogen, or wind-assisted propulsion—is gaining momentum. 5.3 Infrastructure Strain Mega-ships require deeper ports and better logistics hubs. Not all regions can afford the infrastructure, creating bottlenecks in global trade. 6. The Future of Sea Routes and Supply Chains 6.1 Technological Transformation Digitalization: Blockchain and AI are streamlining documentation and tracking shipments. Autonomous Ships: Trials are underway for crewless vessels that reduce costs and risks. Smart Ports: Automated cranes and AI-driven logistics increase efficiency. 6.2 Arctic Sea Routes As ice melts, the Northern Sea Route along Russia and the Northwest Passage through Canada are becoming viable. These routes cut travel time between Asia and Europe but raise environmental and sovereignty concerns. 6.3 Regionalization vs. Globalization Some argue the world is moving towards regional supply chains due to geopolitical tensions and resilience concerns. For instance, the EU encourages near-shoring manufacturing, while the U.S. promotes domestic chip production. However, sea routes will remain indispensable for intercontinental trade. 6.4 Resilient Supply Chains Companies are rethinking strategies: Building redundancy (multiple suppliers). Increasing stockpiles of critical goods (semiconductors, medicines). Investing in predictive analytics for disruptions. Conclusion Sea routes and supply chains truly are the hidden arteries of the global economy. From the spice traders of antiquity to the container ships of today, oceans have been the lifeblood of commerce and civilization. They connect continents, fuel industries, and ensure the smooth functioning of daily life. Yet, they remain vulnerable to geopolitical rivalries, environmental pressures, and technological disruptions. As the world faces climate change, rising protectionism, and shifting power balances, the future of sea routes and supply chains will demand innovation, resilience, and cooperation. They may be invisible to the average consumer, but every time someone picks up a smartphone, drinks coffee, or fills their car with fuel, they are directly benefiting from the silent yet powerful arteries that keep the global economy alive.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Will Fed rate cuts provide further upside for US500? On the eve of the FOMC meeting, US indices traded cautiously as stronger August retail sales reignited concerns over inflation risks. Retail sales rose 0.6% MoM, beating the 0.3% consensus. Charles Schwab noted that despite weak August jobs data, consumer spending remains resilient, supporting Q3 growth. Industrial production also surprised to the upside at 0.1% (cons. -0.1%), with manufacturing output—the largest component—up 0.2% on a rebound in autos. US500 remains within the ascending channel, maintaining a steady uptrend. The widening gap between both EMAs suggests the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If US500 holds above both EMAs, the index may gain upward momentum toward the psychological resistance at 6700. Conversely, if US500 breaks below the 6530 support, the index could retreat toward 6340.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by inkicho_exness
S&P500 Key support at 6600FOMC Takeaways Fed cut rates 25bps to 4.00–4.25%, as expected. Powell framed it as a “risk-management cut”, tempering hopes for an aggressive easing cycle. Dot plot now signals 75bps total cuts in 2025 (vs. 50bps before), with softer growth/labour tone. Markets saw a whipsaw: initial rally → Treasury selloff → equities flat by close. Market Moves Equities: S&P 500 closed -0.10%, after falling as much as -0.84% intraday. Sector split: IT lagged (-0.70%), but financials (+0.96%) and consumer staples (+0.90%) outperformed. Futures (Asia session): S&P +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.73% → rebound tone. Rates: Yields higher post-FOMC (10yr +6bps to 4.09%) but down 2–2.5bps this morning. FX: Dollar Index +0.18% overnight, extending gains despite initial dip. Trading Implications Market focus: Is the economy strong enough to sustain gains with only a gradual Fed cutting path? Bull case: Rate-sensitive domestic sectors (financials, staples, housing-related) showing resilience; futures pointing higher. Bear case: Transports lag industrials (Dow at records, transports weaker) – a potential warning sign for breadth of the rally. Catalyst today: FedEx earnings – a key test for global trade/transport demand and market breadth confirmation. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6660 Resistance Level 2: 668 Resistance Level 3: 6700 Support Level 1: 6600 Support Level 2: 6570 Support Level 3: 6550 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P500 | H1 Head and Shoulders | GTradingMethod👋 Hello again fellow Traders, I already have a short open from 6 633.7, but I’d love to see a Head & Shoulders pattern develop so I can scale into more shorts. So far, the build-up looks promising — volume has picked up significantly on this drop, which is a bearish signal. That said, I’m still waiting on confirmation before committing further. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/Reward: 3.1 Entry: 6 614.3 Stop Loss: 6 625.4 Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 586.9 Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 570.2 🔎 What I Need to See First: A 30m candle to reach and close in range Lower volume on the candle that closes in range vs. the left shoulder More candles forming the right shoulder 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: Patience is key. The best trades usually come when all conditions align — not just some of them. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me for updates, and keen to hear what your prediction is. 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GTradingMethod
4
S&P500 | H1 Double Top | GTradingMethod👋 Hello traders, Tried shorting a potential head and shoulders on the 1H chart earlier — it failed. Thankfully, one of my exit rules triggered before my stop loss, so the loss was small, but still not pleasant. That’s trading. 🧐 Market Overview: The bigger picture remains the same. On the detailed side, I am looking for a potential double top on the hourly chart. RSI is making lower highs while price is making higher highs, which shows weakening buying momentum. For me, this is a non-negotiable variable when trading double tops and head & shoulders setups. I’ll be waiting for a candle closure in my entry range, alongside a few more confirmations, before taking the next shot. Patience is key here. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/Reward: 3.4 Entry: 6 598.4 Stop Loss: 6 608.3 Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 567.9 Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 557.9 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: Losses are part of the process. The key is to keep them small, stick to your rules, and wait for probability to play out over time. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Follow me to catch my next setup, and let me know — do you think this head and shoulders will confirm, or will buyers push the S&P to fresh highs? 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GTradingMethod
13
Of course. Here is the English translation of the analysis for tOf course. Here is the English translation of the analysis for the US500 (S&P 500 index): The US500 (S&P 500 Index) is the most authoritative benchmark for gauging the overall health of large-cap U.S. stocks. Covering 11 major sectors, its diversified nature makes it a "barometer" of the U.S. economy. The index is currently trading at all-time highs, driven by a combination of market expectations for Fed rate cuts and the resilience of corporate earnings. It is extremely sensitive to monetary policy; any surprises in inflation (CPI/PCE) or employment data can reshape the interest rate path and trigger a market repricing. Sector rotation within the index is a key focal point. While the leadership of tech giants remains the main engine for gains, the performance of cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and industrials is crucial for market breadth and sustainability, signaling confidence in an economic "soft landing." From a technical standpoint, the 5,300 area has become a new battleground for bulls and bears. If constituent earnings continue to exceed expectations, the index could consolidate its upward momentum; conversely, it faces pullback pressure in a high-valuation environment. Looking ahead, the direction of the US500 will be a tug-of-war between "AI-driven earnings growth" and "higher-for-longer interest rates." Investors should pay balanced attention to mega-cap earnings and broad economic data to assess whether the momentum can broaden. Short-term volatility is inevitable, while the long-term trend remains anchored on whether the U.S. economy can avoid a recession.
TVC:SPX
by trade1638
SPX500 Holds Below 6,590 Pivot – Key Breakout Levels AheadSPX500 – Overview The S&P 500 is showing bullish momentum but remains sensitive to the 6,590 pivot for confirmation of the next move. 📉 Bearish scenario: As long as price trades below 6,590, momentum favors a drop toward 6,571. A confirmed break under 6,571 would open the way to 6,550 → 6,527. 📈 Bullish scenario: A 1H close above 6,590 would shift bias bullish, targeting 6,604 → 6,631. Key Level Pivot: 6,590 Resistance: 6,604 – 6,631 Support: 6,571 – 6,550 – 6,527
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Applying the Nx BIAS indicator to US500After my latest thread about the 🛡️ Nx BIAS 🛡️ indicator for determining market bias, I decided to take a scalp trade as a backtesting exercise on the US500 pair. Entry details: Defined the DOL and Invalidation levels using the Nx Bias indicator on the 2Htimeframe. Identified the area of interest and executed the entry on the 5m - 1m timeframe for the same pair. Next steps and forward testing: I will be testing this indicator more extensively. The main goal is to rely solely on it for bias determination under live market conditions to evaluate its real-time performance, moving beyond backtesting results. Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research (DYOR). Best regards, Note: The indicator is not yet available and will be released soon under the name Nx Candle Bias.
TICKMILL:US500Short
by mohx_404
SPX: rte-cut hypeJust a week before the September FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 reached another fresh, new all-time highest level at 6.594 at Friday's trading session. The index managed to gain another 1,6% for the week. The latest move is sort of gearing-up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is expecting to see a 25 bps cut by FED officials. The jobs and inflation figures posted during the week, showed further stabilisation in inflation levels, but also weakening of the US jobs market. Both figures are supportive of the Fed to make a decision over a quarter-point rate cut. However, analysts are noting that the tone and rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell in after the meeting press conference on September 17th, will be crucial for the next move of US equity markets. Certainly, this will mark the most important day for financial markets in the week ahead. Tech companies are again the ones that are driving the market to the higher grounds, TSLA gained 7,36% on Friday, continuing a recent upward trend. Despite no major announcements from Tesla, the stock has gained nearly 12% over the past week, driven by investor optimism that declining interest rates could boost car sales. The artificial intelligence tech firm Super Micro Computer jumped 6% after announcing it had begun volume shipments of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions to customers globally. Warner Bros Discovery rose nearly 8%, building on Thursday’s 29% surge, after reports in the news indicated that Paramount Skydance is preparing a takeover offer.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX SEP-OCT 2025SPX rejected at the 6600 area after heavy institutional distribution (-352B). Price is consolidating above key support zones at 6500–6450 and 6350–6200. Stronger demand sits at 6100, where the 3.4T daily absorption was previously noted. Below that, unfilled gaps remain at 5800 and 5350. Upside target: 7000 if supports hold and momentum returns. Downside target: 5800 gap fill if 6350 breaks. #SPX #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
SP:SPXLong
by alexpv73