Get started
SPX 500, DailySPX 500, DailySPX 500, Daily

SPX 500, Daily

No trades
See on Supercharts
OverviewNewsIdeasDiscussionsTechnicalsSeasonals

SPX trade ideas

The AI Bubble's Final Act II: The Convergence TightensRetail flushed. Institutions trapped. The Fed flying blind. Welcome to October. The AI Bubble's Final Act II: The Convergence Tightens Why the AI Bubble Narrative Just Got Its Lehman Moment This post is a direct sequel to my September thesis: If you haven’t read that, start there⬇️ - this builds on the trigger map 🗺️. The BLUEBERRY:SP500 continues hovering near cycle highs at 6,700, but structural cracks are widening beneath the surface. The AI-led rally driven by NASDAQ:NVDA $100 billion commitment to OpenAI shows classic signs of saturation: volume decay, RSI divergence, and what analysts are now calling "circular financing." Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which then turns around and spends it back on Nvidia chips - this is the capex circularity that marks bubble peaks. With the U.S. government shutdown now confirmed as of October 1, 2025, macro liquidity stress adds a critical new layer of fragility. This aligns perfectly with our thesis: August CME:BTC1! top + September 30 shutdown = narrative inflection zone. I remain cautious on TVC:SPX upside and alert for volatility expansion. Cycle echoes from 2007-2008 are in play. The boom is fragile. The Fed now faces a critical blindfold - key data streams are frozen mid-cycle. Without payrolls, inflation prints, or consumer metrics during the shutdown, policy decisions risk catastrophic miscalibration at the exact moment when precision matters most. 🧭 Why This Convergence Matters I am not claiming that IG:BITCOIN and SP:SPX are traditionally correlated - even though the chart shows an eerily close alignment over the past decade. I'm mapping trigger timing across asset classes - the simultaneous exhaustion of different market participants: BTC top (August 2025) = Retail exhaustion. The most speculative, leveraged traders have already been flushed out. When crypto peaks first, it signals risk appetite is rolling over. SPX stall (September 2025) = Institutional fragility. The "smart money" that rotated from crypto into AI stocks is now trapped at peak valuations with nowhere left to rotate. Shutdown (October 1, 2025) = Macro blindfold. Just as markets need maximum visibility, the government turns off the economic data dashboard. The Fed is flying blind. Together, they form a convergent signal - just like Lehman + SP:SPX top + credit freeze in September 2008 . These weren't correlated, they were coincidental triggers that revealed the same underlying disease: excess leverage meeting liquidity shock. 📌 The Three Inflection Markers 🔹 Nvidia's $100B Commitment to OpenAI 📆 Date: September 22, 2025 Details: NASDAQ:NVDA pledged up to $100 billion to deploy 10 gigawatts of AI infrastructure for OpenAI progressively, marking peak capex saturation in the AI infrastructure buildout. The Circular Financing Problem: Think of it like a closed-loop economy where the same money keeps circulating without creating real external demand. NASDAQ:NVDA invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which OpenAI then gives back to NASDAQ:NVDA for chips and infrastructure. This isn't wealth creation, it's musical chairs with capital. When the music stops, the question becomes: who's actually making money selling AI services to end customers? Echo: Mirrors NASDAQ:CSCO dot-com era infrastructure frenzy, when telecom companies borrowed billions to buy Cisco equipment, creating the illusion of sustainable demand until the debt bubble popped. 🔹 The Cisco Precedent: When Infrastructure Investment Becomes Speculation 📆 Date: March 27, 2000 Peak Valuation: ~$550 billion - briefly the most valuable company in the world The Story: During the dot-com boom, everyone "knew" the internet would change everything. They were right. But NASDAQ:CSCO still crashed 70%+ and never regained its 2000 peak even 25 years later. Why? Capex-driven euphoria created demand that didn't exist organically. Telecom companies and startups borrowed money to build infrastructure faster than actual usage could justify. When funding dried up, demand evaporated overnight, leaving NASDAQ:CSCO with inventory, overcapacity, and shocked investors. 2025 Parallel: Everyone "knows" AI will change everything. They're probably right. But that doesn't mean NASDAQ:NVDA at current valuations survives the transition. The infrastructure buildout is running ahead of monetizable demand - classic late-cycle behavior. 🔹 U.S. Government Shutdown - The Macro Blindfold 📆 Start Date: October 1, 2025 at 12:01 AM Trigger: Congressional deadlock over partisan spending bill and healthcare provisions The Economic Data Blackout: During shutdowns, critical federal data releases get delayed or suspended: Bureau of Labor Statistics (jobs reports, unemployment, wage data) Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, consumer spending, inflation components) Census Bureau (retail sales, construction, housing data) Federal Reserve inputs for policy decisions Why This Is Catastrophic Timing: The Fed is trying to navigate a soft landing while cutting ECONOMICS:USINTR rates with unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR rising. That requires precise, real-time data. Instead, they're getting a multi-week (or multi-month) information blackout at the exact moment when leading indicators are rolling over. It's like turning off your GPS while driving through a construction zone at night. Historical Parallel - 2008: Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008, but the Fed thought they'd contained it. Lehman failed in September because policymakers were operating on lagged, incomplete data about how quickly the contagion was spreading. The shutdown creates a similar fog of war. The Convergence Thesis: Three Dominoes, One Direction These three events aren't causing each other - they're revealing the same underlying condition: peak leverage meeting exhaustion. 1️⃣ Stage 1 (August): Retail speculators in crypto get wiped out first. BTC tops at $109K, starts rolling over. This is the canary in the coal mine - the most risk-seeking capital runs out of buyers. 2️⃣ Stage 2 (September): Institutional money realizes the AI trade is overcrowded. Nvidia's circular financing deal with OpenAI triggers analyst warnings about an AI bubble. Smart money starts quietly rotating to cash and defensives, but the indexes stay elevated due to passive flows and concentration in mega-caps. 3️⃣ Stage 3 (October): Government dysfunction removes the Fed's ability to respond quickly or accurately. Markets lose confidence that policymakers can even see the problems, let alone fix them. Volatility expands as uncertainty compounds. Think of it like a forest fire. INDEX:BTCUSD was the dry brush catching first. The AI stocks are the trees - bigger, but still combustible. The government shutdown is the wind that accelerates the spread. You don't need correlation between brush, trees, and wind to know the conditions are perfect for disaster. What Happens Next: The Three Scenarios 🟠 Scenario 1: Controlled Decline (45% probability) Shutdown resolved within 2-3 weeks SP:SPX corrects to 6,400-6,200 range (-5 to -10%) Fed pauses cuts, reassesses within Q4 Market stabilizes but stays defensive through year-end This is the "best case" - pain, but manageable 🔵 Scenario 2: Accelerated Unwind (40% probability) Shutdown extends 4+ weeks, economic data gap widens SPX breaks 6,000, triggers algorithmic selling cascade Target: 5,200-5,500 range (-20 to -25%) Credit spreads widen, corporate debt refinancing concerns emerge This is my base case - the scenario I'm positioned for 🔴 Scenario 3: Systemic Event (15% probability) Shutdown coincides with unexpected credit event (corporate default, regional bank stress) Multiple margin calls and forced liquidations SPX crashes to 4,500-4,800 range (-30 to -35%) Fed emergency intervention required (rate cuts, QE restart) Low probability, but non-zero - the true "black swan" outcome 📊 Technical Setup: The Chart Doesn't Lie Current Level: 6,700 (near all-time highs) Key Support Levels: 6,200: Previous resistance turned support - first real test 5,800: 200-day moving average - psychological line in sand 5,200: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement - institutional rebalancing zone 4,500: 2024 breakout level - panic capitulation target ⚠️ Warning Signals Already Visible: Market breadth deteriorating (fewer stocks making new highs) Defensive sectors outperforming (utilities, healthcare, staples) Credit spreads starting to widen (HYG/TLT ratio declining) VIX base level rising from 12 to 16+ (fear premium expanding) The Bottom Line: Risk/Reward Is Clear At SP:SPX 6,700 with the Fed flying blind, AI capex circularity exposed, and retail already flushed from crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL , the risk/reward for long positions is terrible. You're risking 10-15% to potentially gain what - another 3-5% before reality hits? Smart money is raising cash, buying volatility, and preparing shopping lists for when quality names trade at distressed prices. The convergence of COINBASE:BTCUSD top, NASDAQ:NVDA circular financing peak, and government shutdown isn't causing a crisis - it's revealing that we're already in the early stages of one. August was the warning. September was the setup. October is the trigger. The market doesn't need to crash tomorrow, but the margin of safety has disappeared. When the next shoe drops - earnings disappointment, credit event, geopolitical shock, employment spike - there's no cushion left. Only air. Position accordingly. Until the next trigger - Nicholas. Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal views and analysis. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
SP:SPXShort
by niclaxfx
22
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to support area of 6646 .Colleagues, in the last forecast I was counting on price reaching the 6550 area, but that plan turned out to be a long term plan. I see the sense in making some shorter term targets. The closest target I see is the 6646 support area, where wave “4” ends. This is a corrective movement, so it is necessary to realize that the price may continue to fall after reaching the target. Fundamental context U.S. inflation remains elevated — CPI rose to about 2.9 % YoY, with core inflation around 3.1 %. At the same time, the labor market continues to cool, and corporate earnings show mixed results. Combined with the Fed’s cautious stance and ongoing fiscal uncertainty, this creates pressure on the stock market. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Hellena_Trade
6
The Pullback Playbook: Buy the Dip or Bail Out?Markets don’t go up in straight lines. Even the strongest trends pause, retrace, and test your conviction. These pauses are called pullbacks and they can either be healthy breathers before the next leg higher or the first cracks in a trend about to fall apart. The challenge for traders is knowing the difference. 📉 What Exactly Is a Pullback? Think of a pullback as a temporary trend halt, not necessarily a crash. The price moves against the prevailing trend for a short period, testing support levels or shaking out weak hands before deciding where to go next. They’re common, normal, and — if managed right — they’re opportunities rather than threats. But here’s where it gets tricky: not all pullbacks are trend halts. Some are the start of a flat-out reversal. And unless you’re comfortable holding through a potential nosedive, you need skills and tools to tell which is which. 🧐 Pullbacks vs. Trend Reversals So how do know if you’re looking at a pullback or a trend reversal? The main differentiating factor is the length of the move. The healthy pullback looks orderly — modest in size, controlled in volume, and often retracing to familiar moving averages or support zones. A healthy pullback might retrace 3-5% in a bull run, testing the 20- or 50-day moving average before bouncing higher. A trend reversal barrels through multiple support levels in days, erasing weeks of gains. It’s often sharper, louder, and driven by news or panic. Signs of a healthy pullback include: • Price holding above key moving averages (20, 50-day. Some stretch to the 100-day but these tend to be rare — it’s more likely a trend reversal by then). • Volume shrinking on the way down, then swelling on the rebound. • Oscillators like RSI cooling off from overbought territory without plunging into oversold. Trend reversals look more like: • Breaks of multiple support levels in one go. • Heavy, accelerating sell volume. • Headlines driving panic: tariffs, central bank surprises, data releases from the Economic calendar , crypto exchange blowups, or noise coming from the Earnings calendar . 📊 Technical Tools to Judge the Dip Charts can’t predict the future, but they can help you gauge probabilities. Pullbacks often line up with Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, or horizontal support and resistance levels. • Moving Averages : If price pulls back to the 50-day and holds, that’s often a green light for trend continuation. If it slices straight through the 100-day? Not so healthy. • Trendlines : Respecting the line = confidence. Breaking it = trouble. • Volume : Low-volume pullbacks suggest sellers aren’t that committed. High-volume dumps are red flags. None of these are crystal balls. But together, they give you a framework to avoid buying every dip. 🏄‍♂️ The Psychology of Buying the Dip Why do traders love dips? Because everyone wants a discount. A pullback offers a chance to jump on a trend at a better price, and social media culture has turned “buy the dip” into a meme strategy. But memes don’t pay the bills when a dip turns into a crater. The psychology works both ways: • Optimists see dips as golden tickets. • Pessimists see them as traps. • Realists know both can be true, depending on the setup. Being aware of your own bias — whether you lean toward buying too early or panicking too soon — is half the battle. 🔄 Asymmetric Risk and the Smart Bet Here’s where it gets interesting. You don’t need to be right all the time if your risk-reward ratio is skewed in your favor. A tight stop and a wide target can mean one win cancels out several small losses. Imagine risking 1% to potentially make 10%. Even if you’re wrong most of the time, the math can work. Pullbacks are prime territory for asymmetric setups: smart, thought-out entries, clear invalidation points (below support, trendline breaks), and attractive upside if the trend resumes. This doesn’t mean chasing every dip. A pullback can wipe your position clean if you’ve placed your stop loss a little too close, a little too early. ⏳ Timing Matters The biggest mistake with pullbacks is trying to catch the exact bottom. Traders love to brag about nailing the wick, but most who try end up paying for it. Smarter is to wait for confirmation — a bounce, a reversal candle, a break back above a short-term moving average. Yes, you may miss the lowest price. But you’ll also miss buying into a freefall. 🌍 Pullbacks in Context Context is everything. A dip in a raging bull market is not the same as a dip in a shaky sideways market. Macro matters too. If the Fed is cutting rates , risk assets might rebound fast. If tariffs, wars, or inflation are spiking, a pullback could turn into something bigger and deeper. That’s why traders zoom out before diving in. Daily charts tell one story; weekly charts often tell the bigger tale. 🚀 Buy or Bail? So, do you buy the dip or bail out? The honest answer is: it depends. A well-structured pullback in a strong uptrend with unchanged fundamentals is an opportunity. A violent, volume-heavy selloff in a fragile market with cracked fundamentals is a warning. The pullback dilemma isn’t just about charts but also about psychology. Can you hold your nerve when the market wobbles, or will you cut and run? Both choices can be right in the right context. 🎯 Final Takeaway Pullbacks are part of every trend’s DNA. They test conviction, patience, and risk management. The key isn’t to predict every wiggle but to recognize whether price action is just cooling off or signaling something bigger. Stay disciplined, respect your stops, and let the chart, not the noise, tell you when it’s time to stay in or step aside. Off to you : Buy the dip? Or bail out? How do you respond to expected and unexpected market pauses? Let us know your coping mechanism in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
7
S&P500 - $8.000 is the ultimate target!🎊S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) continues the bullrun: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the course of the past couple of months, the S&P500 has been rallying +40%. However, this does not mean that the bullrun is over any time soon. Since the S&P500 perfectly respects the rising channel pattern, a move to the upper trendline is the target. 📝Levels to watch: $8,000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
TVC:SPXLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
7
The corrective phase of the S&P In my view, the S&P 500 index is forming a diametric pattern in the long-term timeframe, with wave (E) currently nearing completion. Following this, the index is expected to enter a corrective phase, which could involve both price and time corrections: - The price correction may extend to the range of the drawn box, potentially dropping the index to 3,500 points. - Alternatively, the price could decline to the 4,700–4,800 range and then consolidate over time to complete the time correction. Good luck NEoWave Chart
TVC:SPX
by NEoWave-Chart
15
The Evolution of the Market I was always curious of what the market was like pre algorithms and computerized trading from market makers, and this is what prompted this research / article. Through the pursuit of this quesiton, I discovered some really surprising things. Mostly, the impact of the retail influx is actually quite visible in the data and statistics when you break down the market to its components. The exact time and the effect of the influx of retail and the "meme stock era" actually fundamentally changed market dynamics, as you will see how in this article! So here I am to talk about the market evolution, as told by Statistics using the S&P. A very special thanks to Tradingview for giving such rich data on the S&P, allowing me to pull data as far back at 1888. Thanks so much Tradingview! Now, lets get into it! Introduction The story of market evolution is really the story of how information is processed into price. From the ticker-tape era of the late 19th century to today’s machine-driven trading, each wave of innovation has left fingerprints in the data. With access to SPX data stretching back to 1888 (thanks again Tradingview!), we can actually test for these regime shifts. My question was simple: did the rise of algorithmic and computer-driven trading — starting in the 1980s — measurably change the character of market price action? My thesis is that computer based alogirthms should have acted on the market in the following ways: a) Should make the market more linear in nature via use of computer algorithms heavily based in linear algebra. b) Reduced randomness in the data structure. c) Made markets more efficient. To answer these questions and find whether my theses were in fact valid, I applied a battery of statistical tests, regime backtests, and structural break analyses across defined eras of market history. Descriptive Statistics: Shifting Return Distributions I first grouped the data into six eras: 1888–1910 1910–1950 1950–1970 1970–1990 1990–2010 2011–current For each, I computed mean returns, volatility, skewness, kurtosis, and a normality test. You can see the results in the table below: Findings: Early markets (1888–1910) show wide swings and near-normal distribution. Post-WW2 (1950–1970) returns were calmer, with reduced volatility. From 1970–1990, skewness and kurtosis exploded, showing fat-tailed events — think oil crisis, stagflation, and 1987 crash. 2011–current is defined by higher kurtosis and volatility clustering, consistent with an environment dominated by algorithmic and high-frequency trading. 💡 Trading Tip: When kurtosis is high, risk is concentrated in rare but violent moves. Simple VaR (volatility) measures understate risk. Options traders often exploit this by buying long-dated wings (cheap out-of-the-money puts/calls) in high-kurtosis regimes. Autocorrelation and Randomness I then ran the Ljung–Box test (serial correlation) and Runs test (randomness), which you can see the results in the table below. Pre-1970 markets often failed randomness tests → returns weren’t fully efficient, suggesting exploitable patterns. Post-1990, autocorrelation is near-zero (high-frequency traders and quants arbitrage away serial dependence quickly). However, runs test still showed occasional streakiness, especially in 2011–current (momentum bursts). 💡 Trading Tip: Don’t fight market efficiency. In modern data, intraday edges based on lagged correlations vanish quickly. Better edge: look for volatility regime shifts or structural breaks rather than naive mean reversion. And we will get into this more later in this article! Variance Ratio & Hurst Exponent: Random Walk vs. Persistence Variance Ratio tests showed early markets >1 (predictable mean reversion), but after 1990 values dipped negative, which tends to signify momentum behavior. See the tables below: Looking at the Hurst exponent, it hovered at ~0.55 pre-2000 (persistent trending), but dropped toward 0.48 post-2011 indicating a move from randomness to more stability. 💡 Trading Tip: Momentum is not dead, but its timescale is compressed. Where trends once lasted months, they now play out in days or weeks. Swing traders should shorten holding horizons in the modern era based on these results. And I am sure we all can relate after the initial crash we saw at the beginning of 2025 and how quickly it recovered! This quick recovery without retracement of lows showed up as a market rule from 2018 and on (more on that later). GARCH Volatility Clustering Before I get into this analysis, I just want to clarify what GARCH is, as it is discussed a bit among quant traders and chances are you may have heard it but not quite sure what it's all about. GARCH — short for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity — is a model designed to capture how market volatility clusters in time. Essentially, it recognizes that periods of calm trading are usually followed by more calm, and turbulent days are usually followed by more turbulence. Instead of assuming volatility is constant, GARCH lets it “breathe” with the market: When shocks hit (e.g., 2008 crisis, 2020 COVID crash), volatility spikes, and the model expects more big moves ahead. When markets settle, volatility decays slowly rather than instantly snapping back. This persistence — where high volatility begets high volatility — is one of the defining features of financial time series, and GARCH is the workhorse model used to measure it. So keeping this in mind, let's discuss the results. I Fitted multiple GARCH(1,1) models which gave me alpha + beta ≈ persistence. What this means is summarized below by era: Pre-1980: persistence ~0.95 (long-lived volatility shocks). Post-2010: persistence ~0.97 — extremely sticky volatility. This shows that volatility has become a regime in itself — shocks last longer and decay more slowly. 💡 Trading Tip: In persistent volatility regimes, selling short-dated options (expecting “vol will collapse”) is dangerous. Instead, structured spreads (calendars/diagonals) are safer because they profit from persistence. Regime-Based Backtests: Momentum vs. Mean Reversion I backtested two toy strategies inside each era: Momentum: buy after up days. Reversion: fade after up days. Results: Interpretation Tip: This chart shows 2 toy strategies applied, one based on momentum (i.e. last day was positive, I am going to just go ahead and long the next day, inverse if last day was negative) vs mean reversion (essentially playing to major SMAs). The lower the number, the better the strategy (negative numbers in this case are GOOD and positive are BAD, 0 is net flat). Here is the summary of the results: 1910–1950: reversion dominated (thin markets, order-driven). 1970–1990: momentum exploded (indexing, funds, trend-followers). 2011–current: momentum again shows dominance, possibly linked to retail trading waves post-2018 (e.g., meme stocks, option gamma squeezes). This is the result that shocked me the most. You can literally see from this chart, at about 2018, the market abandoned mean reversion in favour of momentum to a statistically significant extent! This information is incredible and actually really forces me to rethink some of my mean reversion based strategies. This also happens to coincide with meme stock eras, early introduction of trading apps and the whole, as I call it, "democratization of trading for everyone". We can literally see the retail footprint show up and how retail has fundamentally shifted market dynamics away from mean reversion to more about momentum. This just amazes me, I was never expecting to actually be able to physically see how dramatic retail has impacted the market! And this was never the intention of this research, it was focused mostly on looking at how the market has evolved in relation to computer algorithms and AI, but just happened to also pick up on the retail bandwagon influx in the crossfire. 💡 Trading Tip: Regime awareness matters. In reversion eras, fading strength is profitable. In momentum eras, chasing breakouts is. Today, evidence leans momentum, but in short bursts (intraday to multi-week). Bai–Perron Structural Breaks Oh man, this one was a nightmare. Being a quant trader, I have some serious computing power and servers and this really gave them a run for their money. This test essentially explores for statistically significant regime shifts. It identifies them on its own and returns the dates of the independent regimes. This took some hours to process, but essentially what it has done is identified, on SPX, independent regimens that are fundamentally different from each other. Here is the raw table breakdown of the regimes: And displayed overlaid with the close of the S&P: Breaks detected: 1929–1933: Great Depression. 1973–1987: Oil crisis → Black Monday. 2000–2009: Dot-com → Global Financial Crisis. 2020: COVID volatility shock. These align almost perfectly with historical crises. The point of the function is essentially to just have an unbiased, algorithm validate that there are or have been independent shifts and regimes present in the market, without us imposing our own opinions (i.e. "the market has never been the same since 2008" and don't forget the million dollar "Trump market" (which by the way is disproved as significant using this analysis, there is no statistically significant difference in a "Trump market" or it would have shown up ;) ). 💡 Trading Tip: Structural breaks matter most to macro investors. Regime shifts reset correlations, volatility, and trend behaviors. After 2020, treating markets as “post-2010 continuation” is wrong — structurally, a new volatility regime has been in play. Conclusion So, what can we say about all of this? The statistical fingerprint of markets has changed dramatically: Early 20th century: mean-reverting, inefficient. 1950–1970: calm postwar boom. 1970–2000: fat tails, trend-followers dominate. 2000–2010: crash-prone, clustered volatility. 2011–current: machine-driven randomness punctuated by bursts of momentum (often retail-driven). To answer my initial question regarding whether the introduction of computing and AI fundamentally shifted the market, looking at the data, it suggests that algorithmic trading didn’t make markets “more linear.” Instead, it compressed timescales, enforced near-randomness, and amplified volatility persistence. Retail surges post-2018 added another layer: sudden, meme-like bursts of momentum. But here are the things that surprised me the most and I think should be really taken away from this research and thought about. These are my observations: The market went from a true Random-walk situation from 1888 to 1950, to a more trendy and predictable version in 1950 to 1980. The era between 1888 and 1950 and the era between 1950 and 1990 are fundamentally different. These are not the same markets anymore and there aren't any visible remnants of our 1900s, 1920s, 1950s or even 1990s markets. This matters because we can't really compare this current market to say the dotcom bubble, since the factors that made up the market mechanics in that era are fundamentally different than currently. As well, those using strategies that are based on 'old regimens', such as EWT or certain pattern formations (for me, I use Bulkowski patterns who did the majority of his analyses and statistics in the 1990s) are defunct. The regimen is different, its changed and it is fundamentally different. Thus, is is unlikely that the traditional patterns from the 90s or the EWT as it was written in the 1930s, a regimen that was fundamentally different, mean reversion based, will hold up in the current market climate. Remember, 1920s to about the 1950s was a major mean reversion era, the market has now moved away from mean reversion. So these strategies built on those dynamics need to be approached with absolute caution. In all, I am glad I spent hours doing this because I will have to look into revamping some of my own stuff to be more in line with the current era. I have noticed some of Bulkowski's patterns just don't work, and now it makes sense. I also noticed some of my old mean reversion strategies aren't that great anymore either, and now it makes sense. Whether you are a technical trader or a quant trader, statistics can help you understand the reason and rationale and guide you in your pursuit of profitable trading, without diverging your strategy (you can remain technical based or quant based, you just can be informed about the nitty gritty of it all with stats). And I hope that this analysis/article helps you see the usefulness of stats in guiding your understanding of market mechanics. I will leave you with some final pragmatic advice based on the analysis: Trade shorter momentum bursts. Respect volatility persistence. Use structural break analysis to anticipate when “old rules” stop applying. (more advanced but if you are up for it!) The key take away from all of this heavy stats stuff, if anything, is that we are in a momentum driven market that does not favour mean reversion and is quick to shake off downside volatility. I hope you found this insightful, this took a bunch of time to process these analyses and then write this post, so if you enjoyed it and found it helpful, share some love with a like and/or comment! Thanks so much everyone and as always safe trades! Special thanks again to Tradingview for the great data! To Grammarly for hopefully having edited errors in this post! SORA for the cover art. And to R for providing the means of the analysis. As well, the biggest thanks to you all, the Tradingview community, for reading, interacting and engaging!
SP:SPX
by Steversteves
5
SPX500 H1 | Bullish Bounce from Key SupportBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry, which is 6,732.79, which is a pullback support and oculd bounce from this levle to the upside. Stop loss is at 6,719.64, which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 6,697.83, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 6,762.34, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
2
US500 Breaks Out and Aims HigherUS500 Breaks Out and Aims Higher Since the start of October, the US500 has been moving inside a large bullish pattern, showing signs of accumulation. Now, it looks ready to rise again, supported by expectations that the FOMC will continue with its rate cut plans in the upcoming meetings. The FOMC minutes released yesterday also confirmed support for a 25 bps rate cut, adding strength to market optimism. Recently, the US500 broke out of the bullish pattern, suggesting more upside potential ahead. For now, the next targets are around 6780 and 6800. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KlejdiCuni
4
Crash ... 10 % and up 6760 is very important Pivot that price can`t pass for many reasons : its 720 GANN angle since the uptrend begins in apr 2025 @ 4840 and it comes with upper trend that contain the price and face it down evey time it touch Now . its matter of time before the movie start This is how the big whales punish you when you trade in the markets Gold at a record high The dollar is also rising Bonds are rising Political tensions are increasing Inflation is rising Unemployment is increasing Government shutdown High tariffs Yet the market hits a new record every other day by day Patience is a virtue Wait for a 10-15% crash before the end of the year After they wipe out the sellers, as they always do have a sit , have a kit kat
SP:SPXShort
by MaxSas
3
The AI Bubble's Final Act: Why $SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the TopThe AI Bubble's Final Act: Why SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the Top Unemployment + Rate Cuts = Recession (12 for 12 Since 1970) The Death Cross Pattern There's a simple rule that's worked for 55 years: When the Fed cuts rates while unemployment is rising from cycle lows, recession follows within 12 months - every single time. Think of it like a doctor taking your temperature while giving you painkillers. The medicine might make you feel better temporarily, but if the fever is rising, something serious is wrong underneath. Current Status: ✅ Fed just cut rates ECONOMICS:USINTR (September 2025) ✅ Unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR rising from 3.4% cycle low ✅ TVC:SPX at all-time high ($6,700) Historical Result: 12/12 times = recession + 35% average equity crash The Precedent: Crisis Follows a Script 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: Setup: TVC:SPX at ATH (1,550), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.9%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting Crisis: Technology "revolution" story breaks down Result: -49% crash over 2.5 years Recovery: 7 years to new highs 2008 Financial Crisis: Setup: CBOE:SPX at ATH (1,576), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 4.4%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting Crisis: Housing/credit bubble bursts Result: -57% crash over 1.5 years Recovery: 5 years to new highs 2025 AI Bubble: Setup: SPREADEX:SPX at ATH (6,700), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.4%→4.2%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting ✅ Crisis: AI productivity story meets employment reality Projection: -35 to -45% crash over 18 months Recovery: 3-5 years (faster due to tech infrastructure remaining) The AI Employment Paradox The Productivity Mirage Wall Street celebrates AI boosting productivity, but here's the paradox: productivity gains = job losses = reduced consumer spending = recession. Think of it like a factory owner celebrating a new machine that replaces 100 workers. Great for margins, terrible for the local economy when those 100 families stop spending. Jobs ECONOMICS:USNFP at Risk by Sector: Customer Service: 2M jobs (chatbots replacing agents) Software Development: 500K jobs (AI-assisted coding reducing teams) Transportation: 3M jobs (autonomous vehicles accelerating) Administrative: 4M jobs (AI handling routine tasks) Content Creation: 1M jobs (AI writing, design, video) Total Impact: 10+ million jobs facing displacement over next 2-3 years Why This Time is Different? Unlike previous automation waves that created new job categories, AI is targeting cognitive work directly. A factory worker could become a service worker, but what does a displaced knowledge worker become? Valuation Extremes: 1929 Levels with 2025 Leverage Current Valuation Metrics: Shiller CAPE: 38+ (higher than 1929's 33) Buffett Indicator: 195% (market cap/GDP, historical average 85%) Price/Sales: 3.3x (vs 1.4x historical average) Forward P/E: 23x (on optimistic AI earnings assumptions) Valuations today exceed 1929 by most measures - but with far more leverage embedded in the system. If 1929 was a valuation bubble, 2025 is that bubble layered with derivatives, corporate debt, and passive flows. The Leverage Layer: Margin Debt: $1.023 trillion (record high)( as of July 2025, ycharts ) Corporate Debt/GDP: 85% (vs 45% in 2000) Derivatives Exposure: $700 trillion notional ( as of June 2025, BIS semiannual data ) ETF/Passive Flows: $1.5 trillion annually (forced selling on reversals) When liquidity stress hits, derivatives amplify shocks - notional exposure dwarfs underlying assets. Think of today's market like a house of cards built on a trampoline. Even small bounces can bring the whole structure down. Technical Breakdown: The Charts Don't Lie Major Warning Signals: Market breadth has deteriorated from 90% in Q4 2024 to ~60% today, Defensives led earlier in the year, TVC:VIX Volatility’s floor has shifted higher Credit risk appetite (HYG/TLT) is stretched. Together, these signal fragility beneath the index surface. The Three-Stage Technical Collapse: Stage 1 - The Warning (Now-Q4 2025): Current Level: $6,700 Initial Support: $6,200 (previous resistance) Character: Failed rallies, rotating leadership, "healthy correction" narrative Target: 5,800-6,000 (-10 to -13%) Stage 2 - The Cascade (Q4 2025-Q2 2026): Breaking Point: Below 5,800 triggers algorithmic selling Character: "Buy the dip" stops working, margin calls begin Target: 4,800-5,200 (-25 to -30%) Stage 3 - Capitulation (Q2-Q4 2026): Final Flush: Panic selling, ETF redemptions Character: "Markets will never recover" sentiment peaks Target: 3,700-4,200 (-35 to -45%) The Catalyst: When Reality Meets Hype Q4 2025 Earnings Season - The Reckoning Companies will face impossible questions: "You spent $50B on AI - where's the revenue growth?" "Productivity is up 20%, why are you laying off workers?" "If AI is so transformative, why are margins declining?" The Employment Data Domino Effect: October/Nov NFP: First print above 250K unemployment claims November Consumer Spending: Down 2%+ as job fears spread December Holiday Sales: Weakest since 2008 January Layoff Announcements: Tech companies start "right-sizing" Think of it like the moment in 2000 when investors finally asked: "How exactly does Pets.com make money?" or 2007 when they wondered: "What's actually in these mortgage bonds?" Sector-by-Sector Breakdown Technology (-50 to -70%) AI hype stocks get destroyed first Software companies face declining growth + competition Semiconductor cycle turns negative Biggest Losers: NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL Consumer Discretionary (-40 to -55%) Unemployment hits spending immediately High-end retailers crushed first Auto sales collapse with higher rates Biggest Losers: TSLA, AMZN, NKE Financials (-30 to -45%) Credit losses surge as economy weakens Interest margin compression Commercial real estate exposure Biggest Losers: Regional banks, non-bank lenders Relative Outperformers (-15 to -25%) Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples Companies with genuine AI cost savings High-dividend yielders in low-rate environment Key Dates and Catalysts October 2025: Jobs report (first warning?) Q3 earnings disappointments Fed meeting (dovish pivot?) November 2025: Election aftermath volatility Black Friday sales data Thanksgiving week low-volume crashes December 2025: Year-end tax selling Institutional rebalancing Holiday retail reality check Q1 2026: Layoff announcements surge Earnings guidance slashed Credit events begin The Recovery Setup Why This Crash Creates Opportunity: Valuation Reset: P/E ratios back to historical norms Weak Hands Flushed: Margin traders eliminated Government Response: Fiscal + monetary stimulus AI Infrastructure Remains: Real productivity gains continue post-bubble Recovery Timeline: Bottom: Q4 2026 around 3,700-4,200 Initial Rally: 30-50% bounce over 6 months New Bull Market: Begins 2027 with stronger foundation New Highs: 2029-2030 timeframe Risk Management Rules This Analysis Fails If: Fed pivots to massive QE before crisis Fiscal stimulus exceeds $2 trillion quickly AI productivity gains offset job losses faster than projected Geopolitical crisis overrides economic fundamentals Probability Assessment: 60%: Correction to 4,800-5,500 range (25-30% decline) 25%: Major crash to 3,700-4,200 range (40-45% decline) 15%: Continued melt-up through 2026 (soft landing achieved) Conclusion: The End of the Everything Era At SPX 6,700 with unemployment rising and the Fed cutting rates, we're witnessing the final act of the 15-year "everything bubble." The AI revolution is real, but like the Internet in 2000, revolutionary technology doesn't prevent financial gravity. The bubble is ending exactly like the previous ones - with everyone believing "this time is different" right until it isn't. Smart money is already rotating defensive. The question isn't whether a correction is coming - it's whether you'll be positioned for it.
SP:SPXShort
by niclaxfx
35
The S&P 500 index remains positive against all oddsThe S&P 500 index remains positive against all odds We noted on 29 September that, amid the US shutdown, sentiment in the S&P 500 index market remained positive, and highlighted factors supporting further growth. Today, the S&P 500 index reached a fresh all‑time high: on Friday morning the price rose above 6 740 points. This confirms the continued optimism among market participants. Today this is supported by news related to the creators of ChatGPT. According to media reports, OpenAI: → has reached a valuation of $500 billion following a deal in which current and former employees sold shares worth around $6.6 billion; → is expanding cooperation with semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea, which is expected to sustain the company’s high growth rate. Thus, OpenAI’s successes are boosting investor optimism ahead of the upcoming earnings season. These and other positive developments might have been overshadowed by the regular Non‑Farm Employment Change report (and other US labour market data), but the Bureau of Labour Statistics is closed due to the shutdown. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart Recent data on the 4‑hour chart of the S&P 500 index underline sustained optimism, as the price develops within a previously established ascending channel, highlighted in blue. From a bullish perspective: → bulls showed strength by breaking a local resistance level at 6 700, which later acted as support (indicated by an arrow); → local peaks allow for steeper upward trendlines to be drawn; → if the move from A→B is seen as the main impulse and B→C as a correction, the correction appears shallow, as the reversal upwards occurred from the 0.382 Fibonacci level, highlighting strong demand. From a bearish perspective: → the price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, where profit‑taking by long holders is typical; → the current peak on the e‑mini S&P 500 chart slightly exceeds the October high (A), suggesting the potential for a bearish divergence; → the absence of news creates an “information vacuum” that could significantly influence market sentiment if filled with negative data. Nonetheless, optimism persists, with Tom Lee (Fundstrat) forecasting that the S&P 500 index will exceed 7 000 points by year‑end. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
SPX500USD is still going upHi traders, Another move for SPX500USD that played out as predicted in my previous outlook. After a small correction last week it went up and made another small correction down. So next week we could see more upside again to make a new ATH. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
S&P500 Found the Support it needed for 6800.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last week (September 30, see chart below), rebounding straight after and quickly hitting our 6720 Target: This time we focus on a much shorter term Channel Up pattern that has emerged, which has just given us another buy signal as it is currently bouncing on its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) holds and the 1H RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line, we expect the index to seek a new Higher High on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 6800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P 500 Technical Analysis & Trading OutlookCurrent Price: 6,715.20 | Date: October 4, 2025 📊 MARKET OVERVIEW The S&P 500 is trading at 6,715.20, hovering near historical resistance zones. This analysis integrates multiple technical frameworks to provide actionable insights for both intraday and swing traders. 🔍 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Monthly & Weekly Perspective (Swing Trading) Elliott Wave Analysis: The index appears to be in a Wave 5 extension of a broader bullish impulse from the 2022 lows Monthly chart shows potential exhaustion signals as we approach the 6,750-6,800 resistance cluster Wave structure suggests a possible corrective phase (ABC) may initiate in Q4 2025 Ichimoku Cloud (Weekly): Price trading above the cloud - bullish structure intact Tenkan-sen (9): 6,682 | Kijun-sen (26): 6,591 Future Senkou Span projects resistance at 6,780-6,820 Key Support Levels (Swing): 6,620 - Kijun-sen weekly support 6,480 - 50-week EMA (critical long-term support) 6,350 - Monthly pivot & Wyckoff accumulation zone 6,180 - 200-week MA (major bull/bear line) Key Resistance Levels (Swing): 6,750 - Psychological resistance & Gann 1x1 angle 6,820 - Ichimoku cloud projection 6,945 - Fibonacci 1.618 extension from August lows Daily & 4-Hour Perspective Wyckoff Analysis: Current phase suggests late distribution (UTAD - Upthrust After Distribution) Volume declining on recent rallies - potential weakness Accumulation zone identified: 6,480-6,550 for re-entry Harmonic Patterns: Bearish Bat pattern forming on the 4H chart PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone): 6,740-6,760 Bearish divergence on RSI confirming pattern validity Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price at upper band (6,735) - overextended Band width expanding - increased volatility expected Middle band support: 6,580 Volume Analysis: VWAP (Anchored from September low): 6,612 Volume profile shows weak volume above 6,700 High volume node (HVN) at 6,550-6,600 - strong support Intraday Analysis (1H, 30M, 15M, 5M) Current Intraday Setup: RSI (Relative Strength Index): 1H RSI: 67.8 (approaching overbought) 15M RSI: 72.3 (overbought territory) Bearish divergence forming on 30M chart Moving Averages: Death Cross Warning: 50 EMA approaching 200 EMA on 4H chart 1H: 20 EMA (6,698) acting as immediate support 5M: Price oscillating around 50 EMA (6,712) Gann Analysis: Gann Square of 9: Next resistance at 6,728 (45° angle) Time cycle suggests potential reversal window: October 7-9, 2025 Price/Time square approaching - expect volatility spike Candlestick Patterns (Recent): Evening Star formation on 4H chart (bearish reversal) Long upper wicks on 1H chart - rejection at resistance Doji formation on daily - indecision 🎯 TRADING STRATEGIES INTRADAY TRADING SETUP (Next 5 Trading Days) Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability - 65%): Entry Zones: Primary Short Entry: 6,725-6,735 (upon rejection) Secondary Short Entry: 6,750-6,760 (if breakout fails - bull trap) Stop Loss: Above 6,775 (invalidation level) Profit Targets: TP1: 6,680 (20 EMA support - 1H) TP2: 6,650 (VWAP anchor) TP3: 6,620 (Kijun-sen weekly) TP4: 6,580 (Daily BB middle band) Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 minimum Confirmation Signals: Break below 6,700 with increased volume RSI crosses below 50 on 1H chart MACD bearish crossover on 30M Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability - 35%): Entry Zones: Long Entry: 6,680-6,690 (upon bounce from 20 EMA) Aggressive Long: 6,650-6,660 (VWAP retest) Stop Loss: Below 6,635 Profit Targets: TP1: 6,720 (resistance retest) TP2: 6,750 (psychological level) TP3: 6,780 (Ichimoku cloud resistance) Confirmation Signals: Volume surge on bounce RSI bullish divergence on 15M Break above 6,720 with strong momentum SWING TRADING SETUP (2-4 Week Outlook) Primary Strategy: SELL ON RALLY Phase 1 - Distribution (Current): Expect choppy price action between 6,680-6,750 Ideal swing short entry: 6,735-6,760 Stop loss: 6,820 Target: 6,480-6,550 (Accumulation zone) Time horizon: 2-3 weeks Phase 2 - Accumulation (Upcoming): Watch for bullish reversal patterns in 6,450-6,550 zone Potential H&S inverse or double bottom formation Long entry upon confirmation Target: 6,850-6,950 (Next impulse wave) Time horizon: 4-8 weeks ⚠️ RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONTEXT Trap Alert: Bull Trap Risk: HIGH above 6,750 Weak volume at resistance suggests false breakout potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming on 4H chart Bear Trap Risk: MODERATE below 6,650 Strong support zone with high volume profile Potential quick reversal if broken Geopolitical & Macro Factors: Fed policy uncertainty - rate decision impact expected mid-October Q3 earnings season beginning - volatility spike likely Geopolitical tensions may trigger safe-haven flows Seasonal October volatility historically present Volume Volatility Assessment: Current State: Declining volume on rallies (bearish) Expected: Volume spike at 6,750 resistance or 6,650 support Strong Trend Confirmation: Sustained volume >15% above 20-day average 🎯 TRADING PLAN SUMMARY For Next Week (Oct 4-11, 2025): Monday-Tuesday: Expect resistance at 6,725-6,735. Look for short opportunities on rejection. Wednesday-Thursday: Gann time cycle window - increased volatility. Watch for break of 6,700 or 6,750. Friday: Weekly close crucial - below 6,680 confirms bearish bias; above 6,750 invalidates short setup. Optimal Strategy: Sell rallies into 6,730-6,750 resistance Wait for confirmation - don't chase Manage risk strictly - volatile market conditions Scale into positions - don't enter full size immediately 💡 TRADER'S EDGE Pattern to Watch: The confluence of: Bearish Bat harmonic completion RSI divergence Wyckoff distribution phase Weak volume at resistance Gann time/price square Creates a HIGH-PROBABILITY SHORT SETUP at 6,735-6,760 Critical Levels This Week: Bull Control: Hold above 6,700 Bear Control: Break below 6,650 Decision Zone: 6,675-6,725 📝 DISCLAIMER This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always use proper risk management, never risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade, and consider your own risk tolerance and trading plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stay disciplined. Trade the plan. Manage your risk.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by sunya
2
US500 at Record Highs: Caution Ahead of Options ExpirationUS500 at Record Highs: Caution Ahead of Options Expiration The US500 recently reached a new all-time high near 6700 but quickly retraced back to 6570. The index managed to recover most of those losses, climbing again toward 6680. In my view, however, we could be approaching the start of a downtrend that may develop by the end of the month. In my view, we could be on the verge of a short-term downtrend soon, which could be created by the end of the month. Today marks not only the end of the month but also the close of both monthly and quarterly data. For indices, this coincides with option expirations, which often increase market volatility. Given the prolonged upward trend, these expirations could trigger corrective moves, so caution is needed. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by KlejdiCuni
7
SPX: jobs delayed, but not the optimismThe key development in the U.S. last week was the federal government shutdown on October 1st, triggered by Congress’s failure to pass a funding bill. Markets had only a mild reaction to the news, and continued to be focused on broader economic development. Still, jobs data which were set for a release during the week, were not posted, due to the “shutdown”. Regardless, posted JOLTs Job Openings in august of 7,227M were slightly better from forecasted 7,2M expected by the market, which pushed the market optimism toward the increased expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates again this year. The S&P 500 marked another winning week, with a new all time highest level this year at 6.746. Tech companies continue to be in focus of market attention. Nvidia and other AI-adjacent firms continued to lead the rally, pushing the S&P 500 to fresh highs. Fair Isaac jumped around 18% after unveiling a plan to let lenders access its credit scores directly, hurting traditional credit bureaus like Equifax and TransUnion. On the opposite side was Palantir, which dropped by around 7,5% following security concerns in the U.S. Army memo. Investors perceive currently a mixed private-sector jobs data for September, as weak enough to support the Fed's decision to cut interest rates further at their forthcoming meeting as of the end of October. Based on these expectations, the S&P 500 might be further supported for new highs, as per investors sentiment.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P 500 & the Presidential Cycle: Bear Market in 2026?The U.S. presidential cycle is a cyclical approach to the stock market suggesting that S&P 500 performance tends to follow a recurring pattern over the four years of a presidential term. This cycle reflects the relationship between political decisions, fiscal and monetary policy, and investor psychology. Historically, the first year of the term (post-election) is marked by economic and fiscal adjustments, often accompanied by moderate gains. The second year, known as the “midterm year,” is usually more hesitant: markets tend to be volatile amid political uncertainty and potential unpopular reforms. This second year of the presidential cycle is typically the weakest of the four and the most prone to a significant S&P 500 consolidation — corresponding in our case to the year 2026. In contrast, the third year of the term almost always stands out as the most favorable for equities, as the administration seeks to boost growth ahead of the next election campaign, often through more accommodative fiscal or monetary measures. Finally, the fourth (election) year tends to remain positive on average, although performance often flattens as electoral uncertainty increases. From this perspective, 2026 will mark the second year of Donald Trump’s presidential cycle — traditionally the most fragile for equity markets. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has recently reached major resistance zones near its historical highs after a strong post-election rally. Several momentum indicators now show signs of exhaustion, while Shiller’s P/E ratio stands at historically elevated levels, indicating stretched valuations. In this context, it is plausible that 2026 will bring a phase of consolidation for the S&P 500, or even a more pronounced correction. Institutional investors may adopt a more cautious stance, awaiting greater clarity on fiscal trajectories, Federal Reserve rate policy, and the impact of new government measures. This cooling phase would be natural after several years of sustained growth and could form a healthy foundation for the next bullish impulse, traditionally observed ahead of the pre-election year — 2027. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
SP:SPXEducation
by Swissquote
$SPX500 by all metrix this is overboughtMarkets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. Right now, we’re at the top of this megaphone pattern, with everything extremely overbought in epic fashion. ⚠️ Caution: the odds of a serious correction are high — the chart points to a potential target around $5,650. Sure, the madness can continue. The Fed can keep printing USD that pours into stocks instead of the real economy — until people are jobless, starving, and rioting for food. 📈 Enjoy the rally while it lasts, but use stop-losses. This market is dangerously overheated.
SP:SPX
by CryptoNikkoid
4