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SP:SPX
by TradingView
16
SP500 Structure Shift: Sell Zone ActivatedHey Guys 👋 I’ve prepared an SP500 analysis for you. Since the market structure has shifted, I’ll be opening a sell position from my designated sell zone. 📌 Entry: 6,474.90 📌 Stop: 6,522.12 🎯 TP1: 6,459.79 🎯 TP2: 6,425.80 🎯 TP3: 6,371.54 RISK REWARD - 2,21 Every single like you send my way is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing these analyses. Big thanks to everyone supporting with a like 🙏
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by TraderTilki
22
2h timeframe (SPCFD index, looks like US500 / S&P CFD).This is a 2h timeframe (SPCFD index, looks like US500 / S&P CFD). Current price is around 6,403. I have drawn a falling trendline from July, and price is now near the lower zone. There’s also volume profile (VPVR) on the right side, showing key liquidity zones. A target point is marked below, around the 6,200 level. 📌 Target Zone: My chart suggests a downside target around 6,200 (highlighted with the blue arrow). ⚠ Notes: If 6,400 support breaks clearly, sellers may push toward 6,300 → 6,200. But if price reclaims above 6,480–6,500, the short-term bearish setup could fail, and we may see a bounce. 👉 Immediate target: 6,200 👉 Stop-loss to watch (invalidating short): above 6,500
SP:SPXLong
by RSI_Trading_point
7
Early alert on SPX🚨 Early alert on SP:SPX The S&P 500 just broke down from a rising wedge , a pattern that has historically marked the end of several bull legs in this index. 📊 In the image below you can see: In one case, the wedge resolved with only a -4% pullback before the uptrend resumed. In the second one, the correction went much deeper at around -17% before stabilizing. 👉 A rising wedge is not automatically a BIG crash signal , but it is REAL a warning flag . Losing key supports could open the door to a larger correction, while a quick recovery would keep the broader bull structure intact. ⚠️ Stay vigilant, SPX has a history of respecting this pattern. This is just an early alert for you all! I'll be sharing in my newsletter more about rising wedges soon , I'm seeing many of them and that could mean that the bull trend, at least, needs a pause.
SP:SPXShort
by TopChartPatterns
8
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6600.Colleagues, the main idea is still the upward movement in the impulse of the middle wave “5”. Wave “4” is likely to take place, because the bulls need to gain strength to update the local maximum of 6512. The most important thing here is that the target of 6600 is a round number, which is quite attractive for buyers and limit sellers. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
15
S&P 500 to 7000 over the next 60 daysYeT another contrarian idea as so many on the platform publish S&P 500 “short” positions. Just as with the NASDAQ 100 idea, many paper hands were flushed out of the market earlier in the year. Now they wait with cash as the market grinds higher. Others throwing themselves into Put options. What next? First the basic question trend and support/resistance. The Trend Higher lows have been printed consistently since the April sell off. The trend is up. Support & Resistance Look left. Multiple levels of past resistance now confirm as support (blue arrows). How is it possible to be bearish? Sentiment As with the NASDAQ 100 idea, much of the retail market maintains a short bias with the Put/Call ratio far into the bearish territory. Historically, when put/call ratios spike above extreme levels, the S&P 500 rallies for weeks to months after. Why 7000? The breakout above the prior all time high of 6150 sent the market into price discovery. Selling pressure is largely absent with the April flush out leaving Wave 5 to develop. The uptrend channel will now not find resistance until the upper side of the channel, which is conveniently enough the Fibonacci 1.618 extension @ 7k. Why 60 days? Specifically this is a timeline defined by the US debt markets, which is for another post. Conclusion The S&P 500 climbs a wall of worry as confidence in the US markets evaporates. Loud bearish calls dominate the headlines, which is understandable. However the chart tells the real story: higher lows, confirmed supports, sentiment extremes, and extension forecasts all align with continuation. A move to 7000 area is very probable, what the market has in store afterwards is perhaps the bigger story, which is for another time. Is it possible for the market to correct to 6200 and below like many are calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
6
THE FED'S SECRET INDICATOR JUST FLASHED REDHERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Federal Reserve has sent a clear signal this week: financial market conditions are deteriorating. After months of relative calm at a level of -0.53, the index rose on Wednesday, triggering the first "Risk Off" signal in an extended period. For institutional investors and risk-conscious traders, this is a moment that deserves attention. The NFCI is not just another technical indicator. It represents the most comprehensive assessment of American financial market conditions available. Over 100 different data points flow into its calculation: from credit conditions to volatility measures to banking sector stress indicators. When this index rises, it means liquidity conditions are deteriorating, credit risks are increasing, and financial market stability is under pressure. The historical evidence is clear. Both in 2008 and 2020, NFCI increases warned weeks before major market crashes of deteriorating conditions. The strategy of building defensive positions during NFCI rises has proven its effectiveness over long periods. While it doesn't deliver the spectacular returns of a pure buy-and-hold approach, it offers something far more valuable: capital protection in critical moments. BASE CASE SCENARIO Our base case assumes that the current NFCI rise marks the beginning of a typical correction phase. Historical data shows that such signals typically anticipate market declines of 10 to 15 percent over a period of three to six months. The correction would be driven by a combination of tighter credit conditions, increased volatility, and diminishing investor risk appetite. In this scenario, we expect the S&P 500 to retreat from its current level of approximately 6,470 points to a level between 5,500 and 5,800 points. This would correspond to a decline of about 10 to 15 percent, equivalent to a normal, healthy correction in an otherwise intact bull market. Recovery would begin once the NFCI starts falling again, signaling that financial market conditions are relaxing. This scenario is supported by the fact that the American economy remains fundamentally robust. Unemployment is low, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve still has room for monetary policy support. A moderate decline would correct overvalued areas of the market without triggering a systemic crisis. WORST CASE SCENARIO The more pessimistic scenario considers the possibility that the current NFCI rise is the beginning of a more serious financial market disruption. In this case, the index could continue deteriorating and reach values historically associated with genuine financial crises. A sustained rise over several weeks, especially if the NFCI reaches positive values, would indicate systemic problems. In this scenario, we would have to expect a market decline of 25 to 40 percent extending over 12 to 18 months. The S&P 500 would fall to levels between 3,900 and 4,900 points in this case. Such movements typically arise from a combination of credit squeeze, liquidity shortages, and self-reinforcing selling spirals. The triggers for such a scenario could be diverse: an unexpected escalation of the geopolitical situation, the bursting of a speculation bubble in an important market segment, or a revaluation of credit risks in the banking sector. The worst-case scenario would also mean that the Federal Reserve would have to respond with aggressive measures, which in turn could lead to longer-term structural changes in monetary policy. POSITIONING STRATEGY Given these scenarios, a graduated defense strategy is appropriate. The first line of defense consists of reducing existing long positions and taking profits. This is particularly important for overvalued growth stocks that suffer disproportionately in correction phases. The second stage involves building direct hedging positions. Put options on the S&P 500 with maturities of three to six months offer cost-effective protection against larger declines. Strike prices between 10 and 20 percent below the current market level should be chosen to achieve a balanced ratio between costs and protective effect. For more aggressive traders, direct short positions are also available, but with strict risk management. Short positions should not exceed 5 to 10 percent of the total portfolio and must be closed immediately upon a reversal of the NFCI signal. TIMING AND EXIT STRATEGY Timing is crucial for NFCI-based strategies. The index is updated only once weekly, meaning signals don't immediately react to daily market movements. However, this is a feature, not a bug. The weekly frequency filters out market noise and focuses on substantial changes in financial market conditions. The exit strategy is as important as the entry. As soon as the NFCI begins falling again, defensive positions should be gradually reduced. A decline of the index below its previous low would represent a clear "Risk On" signal and justify building new long positions. It's particularly important not to try to catch the absolute bottom. The NFCI strategy is designed to capture the big moves, not to trade every small fluctuation. Patience and discipline are more important here than precision. The current NFCI rise is a warning signal that should be taken seriously. While we cannot predict with certainty whether we are at the beginning of a small correction or a larger bear market, the historical evidence justifies defensive positioning. The combination of profit-taking, hedging strategies, and increased liquidity provides the best possible protection against the uncertainties that may lie ahead. At a time when many investors are blinded by ongoing market euphoria, the NFCI reminds us that markets are cyclical and that caution is often the better part of valor. Those who position defensively today will have the flexibility tomorrow to act from a position of strength when better opportunities arise again.
SP:SPXShort
by EdgeTools
5
S&P500 | 100 year bullish channel | GTradingMethodHello Traders - Happy Monday! I thought this was a very interesting perspective on S&P500. What they don’t want you to see... 👀 The S&P has been moving inside a bullish channel for nearly 100 years (since 1925). Right now, price is breaking out of that channel but is it fakeout? If it’s a fakeout, the implications are huge: we could be looking at a 70% drop back to the bottom of the channel. ⚠️ Chart is on the monthly timeframe with a logarithmic scale. What do you think — breakout or fakeout? Very keen to hear all your thoughts #TradingLife
SP:SPXShort
by GTradingMethod
6
SP500 Futures Looks Reverse from support SP500 outlook On Wednesday, September 3, 2025, the S&P 500 rose by 0.5%, powered by substantial gains in Alphabet, which jumped over 9% following a favourable antitrust ruling. The Nasdaq also gained around 1%, while the Dow edged slightly lower by about 0.05%. Analysts viewed this as a clear win for Alphabet and Apple, prompting raised price targets and renewed optimism for the broader tech sector. S&P 500 futures climbed roughly 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures rose by about 0.7%, reflecting optimistic expectations for further upside. Fed officials signalled a possible rate cut, with investors pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut by the Fed meeting on September 17, 2025. The market now eyes Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report as the most critical release of the week, alongside the usual weekly data. SP500 support around 64.30 (though SPY is currently at 6430, the level might reflect a different index or instrument) is interesting—the upside momentum appears to be heading toward resistance near 6,505, You may find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by MrMartin_11
5
S&P500 Strong buy signal if the 4H MA200 holds.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back since the August 28 All Time High (ATH) and is headed for a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. This is a major short-term buy point as since April 25, every contact with this trend-line (6 so far) resulted into a new rally/ Bullish Leg. The last two in particular rose as high as the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. So as long as the 4H MA200 holds, that gives us a 6530 short-term Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
SPX – Fed Model vs Liquidity: Hawkish Hold Meets Negative FlowThe S&P 500 holds near 6,435, but the backdrop is shifting. Fed tone, liquidity, and sentiment are no longer aligned, leaving SPX caught between support and resistance. 1. Fed Model (AFDFM) Index = –2.78 → weak hawkish bias. Policy regime = easing, but signal shows a falling trend. Probabilities: Hold = 60%, Cut = 40%, Hike = 0%. Inflation easing (Core PCE 0.34%), unemployment stable (4.2%), but Fed Funds still elevated at 4.33%. Policy remains restrictive compared to the Taylor Rule (~1.8%). 2. Liquidity (BML) Net liquidity variation = –2.14% → negative. TGA high + RRP large = drain on market cash. Until liquidity turns up, upside momentum in equities stays capped. 3. Macro Risk Sentiment Risk On/Off index slipped back below 0 (–0.45). Summer highs near +1.5 showed strong appetite, but enthusiasm is fading. Without liquidity improvement, sentiment is unlikely to push higher. 4. SPX Levels Support: 6,350 → a break below risks 6,200. Resistance: 6,500–6,550 → needs liquidity improvement to sustain. Conclusion: Fed tone = dovish to neutral, but liquidity = negative. That divergence is why SPX is stuck near the highs. A liquidity flip (TGA drawdown, RRP decline) is the trigger for the next breakout. Until then, expect range trading between 6,350 and 6,500. Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice.
CBOE:SPX
by TheRealMongoose
1
SPX500USD is still going up slowlyHi traders, Last week SPX500USD finished the correction (Flat) and went up again just as I've said in previous outlook. Price is not very impulsive. It looks like it forms an ending diagonal. So next week we could see this pair slowly going up some more. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
SPX - Is it topping or setting up a for another run up?I hang up my trader title this week as I have been whooped by poor decision making in a choppy market. But here are my scenarios I will watch as we go. I can't help to think we are topping, but also see we are still in a strong bull market; it just has been harder to swing trade the daily. Scenarios I’m Watching Upside Continuation: Buyers hold above the shaded zone (6,440–6,481) and press higher along the uptrend. A clean push above 6,532 would open the door to new highs, with the trend remaining intact as long as higher lows continue. Sideways Chop: Price keeps oscillating above and below the 6,440–6,481 range. This would extend consolidation and could frustrate swing traders, but it would also allow moving averages to tighten then smooth out and set the stage for another leg higher. Deeper Pullback: If the shaded zone and uptrend line break, the next levels to watch are the 20 EMA (~6,430) and the 50 SMA (~6,355). A dip into this area could still be a normal pullback within an uptrend, especially if buyers step in quickly as they’ve done in recent weeks. Bearish Roll-Over: If neither the 20 EMA nor the 50 SMA hold, a breakdown toward ~6,200 is possible. While not a technical correction percentage-wise, it would feel significant for anyone who entered near recent highs.
SP:SPX
by emanuelaelias
2
4h Retest and TargetThe S&P had broken above a point where sellers came in previously, but could not push price down, hence the consolidation where the red and green boxes are drawn. Price came back down, tested the previous consolidation area, buyers stepped in and price held. (Looking at the wick, it's possible to have entered and been stopped out, but as it moved back up, could've looked for a re-entry and stop below the wick) Friday had its push up, consolidated, and so far on Monday has held its gains. If I were in at the retest area, this new consolidation area is where I'd put my stop and use previous all time highs as the target.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by t0kenst0cks87
1
In September, the S&P 500 Index Reached a New All-Time HighIn September, the S&P 500 Index Reached a New All-Time High September is a month that statistically has the worst reputation for the S&P 500. However, in 2025 things may be different, as today the index hit a record high, rising above 6,520 points. Bullish sentiment is being driven by: → expectations of an interest rate cut in September, which is believed will give the US economy a positive boost (and increase corporate profits); → yesterday’s release of the ISM Services PMI (actual = 52.0, forecast = 50.9), which pointed to industrial growth; → strong corporate results – for example, Broadcom (AVGO) published a solid report yesterday. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart Analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 on 28 August, we: → identified a support zone below 6,370; → noted several bearish signals and suggested that 6,500 could act as psychological resistance (with a potential false bullish breakout). Indeed, since then (as shown by the blue arrows): → the price made a false breakout above 6,500; → then dropped to 6,370 to test the support zone; → after which it turned upwards again, forming a broad bullish engulfing pattern. New data allows us to refine the position of the short-term channel (marked in blue), with the following perspectives: → Bearish view: the price is close to the upper boundary of the channel, which already showed resistance this morning (highlighted by the red arrow) – the candlestick has a long upper shadow. → Bullish view: yesterday’s rally demonstrated signs of imbalance in favour of buyers (as detailed in the description of the Fair Value Gap pattern), and the breakout above 6,500 looks genuine (since the price is consolidating above it). Both viewpoints seem to be well-reasoned, but the market is unlikely to remain in balance, as today (15:30 GMT+3) the release of US labour market data is scheduled – arguably the key event of the week in the economic calendar. Depending on the figures, the S&P 500 might: → attempt to break through the upper boundary; → or retreat towards the median of the blue channel. Be prepared for volatility spikes. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
Econ: Warning SignsI don't usually cover fundamental landscape unless several key economic indicators and policies paint a picture of emerging trouble. Jobs market collapse is real The NFP print of 22K is a disaster, missing estimates by a wide margin. Revisions are key: June was revised down to -13,000 jobs. This is the first negative print since 2020 and signals the slowdown began months ago. The U6 rate jumping to 8.1% is a huge red flag. This includes part-time workers who want full-time jobs and those discouraged from looking. It shows significant underlying weakness the headline U3 rate hides. Tariffs didn't work The policy was supposed to boost US manufacturing and slash the trade deficit. The opposite is happening. US Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for 6 straight months. Why? Tariffs on steel and aluminum have made input costs soar, crippling competitiveness. The Goods Trade Deficit ballooned 22% in July to $103.6B. Imports rose nearly 6x faster than exports. This is a direct contradiction to the policy's goal and acts as a tax on consumers and businesses. Stagflation Risk Weak Growth + Persistent Inflation Growth is stalling: Weak job creation, falling manufacturing output. Inflation is sticky: While wages cooled slightly, prices remain high (as confirmed by consumers in Tennessee interviews). 🏛️ The Fed is now trapped. Cutting rates could fuel more inflation. Hiking rates would kill more jobs. There is no good exit. Tourism: An estimated $80 billion in lost revenue is a massive hit. This has a multiplier effect, hurting local economies far beyond the initial number. Energy: Cancelling near-complete renewable projects (like the RI wind farm) creates uncertainty and hurts long-term energy capacity planning. Agriculture: Farmers in Arkansas and elsewhere are facing bankruptcy due to low prices, high costs from tariffs, and labor shortages. This is a repeat of the 2018 bailout scenario. Three False Narratives: "The Data is Wrong": Attacking the BLS methodology and promising upward revisions. This is shooting the messenger. The trend across multiple reports is clearly negative. "Just Wait a Year": Claiming the benefits of the policies are just around the corner. This is a hope-based strategy, not data-driven. "Look at Private Investment!": Pointing to vague, performative pledges from tech CEOs (like Zuckerberg's hot-mic "$600B" comment). The current economic policies are: Failing to achieve their stated goals. Increasing costs for businesses and consumers. Creating uncertainty that paralyzes investment. Increasing the risk of a stagflationary environment. The market has been resilient, but fundamentals are starting to crack. What I'm Watching: Next CPI and PCE prints for inflation persistence. Next month's NFP for confirmation of the trend. Fed rhetoric: If they would acknowledge the growth scare
TVC:SPX
by fract
Correlation Traps: When Diversification Isn’t DiversifyingYou thought you were diversified. You had tech, energy, crypto, gold — a little bit of everything. Then a single headline nuked your entire portfolio in one day. Welcome to the sneaky world of correlation traps. 🧩 The Diversification Myth Everyone loves to brag about their diversified portfolio. Some Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA here, Rocket Lab NASDAQ:RKLB there, maybe sprinkle in some Solana COINBASE:SOLUSD “for balance.” But if your carefully curated mix of assets moves in the same direction every time Powell says “Good afternoon” at a Fed event… are you really diversified? Or are you just collecting different-shaped eggs in the same basket? This is the correlation trap — the illusion of safety when your assets are secretly plotting against you. On paper, your portfolio says “hedged.” In practice, one bad CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI print, a tariff tweet, or an AI bubble hiccup can torch your entire P&L statement for the month. And it works both ways. When Powell signals cuts, everything rallies: stocks, crypto, commodities, even meme ETFs. Suddenly, your “balanced” portfolio becomes a leveraged bet on a single narrative. 📉 Positive Correlation = Double Trouble Correlation measures how two assets move relative to each other. Positive correlation means they tend to move together. That sounds fine on the upside — everyone’s a genius in bull markets. But when the markets get stressed, it doesn’t really matter if you’re holding traditional stocks or crypto assets. Here's an example. March 2020. The S&P 500 SP:SPX cratered. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD lost more than half of its value in a week. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD dipped. Even safe-haven treasury ETFs had a panic moment. When markets really go risk-off, assets that are usually uncorrelated can suddenly drop in sync. Why does this happen? Herd behavior, mostly. When traders, funds, and algos all unwind positions at once, correlations spike. In times of panic, cash is king. 🛡️ Negative Correlation = Your Actual Friend True diversification comes from mixing assets with low or negative correlation. Historically, think equities vs. treasuries, or stocks vs. gold. When risk assets like stocks get wrecked, safe-haven assets like gold often move up to soften the blow. But even these aren’t bulletproof anymore. Rising inflation, aggressive tariff broadside, and geopolitical headlines can disrupt traditional correlations. Traders relying on “old rules” learn quickly that markets evolve, and yesterday’s safe havens don’t always save you today. Traders often assume “low correlation” equals “zero risk” or “perfect hedge.” Not really. Low correlation can vanish during high-volatility events — exactly when you need it the most. Correlation creep is real — and unless you check, you could be risking more than you think. 🧠 Trading Psychology Meets Correlation Correlation traps aren’t just technical — they can mess with your thinking. Traders often overestimate how diversified they are, which breeds overconfidence. You assume your downside is limited… until a risk event wipes you out across positions you thought were independent. The result? Revenge trading . Over-sizing. Ignoring stop-losses. The correlation trap becomes a psychological spiral if you don’t plan your true exposure correctly. 🛠️ Avoiding the Trap: Practical Moves That Work Run the numbers. You’ve built out a perfect portfolio? Check where your picks are coming from and where they fit using the TradingView Heatmaps and Screeners . Diversify by driver, not ticker. If multiple assets react to the same narrative, you’re likely not truly diversified. Add true hedges. Bonds, gold, cash, and volatility products can help — but only if you size them correctly. Watch cross-asset flows. Use correlations between equities, commodities, FX, and crypto to spot when risk is clustering. The key takeaway? Diversification isn’t about owning “a little of everything.” It’s about owning different risk exposures. 👉 Bottom Line Diversification fails when you mistake quantity for quality. Five correlated trades don’t make you hedged; they make you levered without you knowing it. Correlation traps creep up quietly, especially during euphoric rallies when every chart goes up together. But when sentiment flips — and it does flip — you find out real quickly what’s actually diversified and what isn’t. Next time someone brags about holding “uncorrelated” assets, ask them one question: “Did they all move the same way on the last CPI print ?” If the answer’s yes, maybe it’s time to rethink what diversification really means. Off to you : How do you balance your portfolio? Or maybe you’re not after diversification and instead you’re chasing concentration? Share your approach in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
15
1929 to Present day Trendline Channels The chart represents some very meaningful and powerful trendlines. I have magnetised these trend lines to be exactly on the peak of September 1929 and exactly on the peak March 2000. I drew these lines to the high of day on the given peak days in Sep 1929 and March 2000, combined with a line extension. (Meaning its not a manual placement this is the exact trendline channel) Trendline validation (how many times have we tagged it per month - it has also been tagged many more days): August 1929 September 1929 March 2000 November 2024 December 2024 January 2025 February 2025 When you zoom in to our present year/months/weeks/days, you can see we tagged the trendline November 2024 to February 2025. We have now broken above the trendline for July and August 2025. You will also notice a middle trendline this support formed on the 1st of March 1937 and acted as resistance until it broke through on the 1st of May 1995 about the time when everyone had a home computer and windows 95. This middle support held strong during the 2000-2003 dotcom crash The middle support broke during the 2008 financial crisis. However it regained its support in 2013 and then tagging it in the 2020 covid crash. Over nearly 100 years these channels have remained strong, it is honestly crazy to think we have now broken a 96 year old trendline in 2025. The question is does this trendline become support or resistance?
SP:SPX
by onlinenutrition
1
US 500 – Preparing for the Pivotal US Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseAfter a slow start to trading in September due to the US Labour Day bank holiday on Monday, volatility for US indices has picked up across the week as traders react to multiple drivers, including concerns about the sustainability of government debt in the US, Europe and the UK which weighed on sentiment Tuesday, big tech getting a key win in one of the biggest anti-trust cases for years which provided support off the lows, and updates on the current health of the US economy and labour market, including a slightly disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey on Tuesday, and a weaker than expected JOLTs Job Openings report on Wednesday afternoon. Unsurprisingly, the different responses to these drivers has seen the US 500 index trade from a Monday high of 6483 to a low of 6363 on Tuesday and then move back higher again to current levels around 6450 (0700 BST), as traders cautiously initiate fresh risk positions to kick off the start of September. However, it could be said that the two biggest data releases of the week for traders to digest may still be to come. The first is the US ISM Services PMI which is released later today at 1500 BST. This reading surprised markets last month by falling below expectations to 50.1, just above the 50 level which separates economic expansion and contraction. Traders will be looking to see whether this new print confirms a trend of weaker service activity or if the July reading was just a one-off blip. Then on Friday, it’s the release that potentially every trader has been waiting for since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned concerns about the strength of the US labour market in his keynote speech from Jackson Hole, and noted how policymakers will be watching employment data closely to determine whether a rate cut at their meeting on September 17th would be appropriate to help support the economy. The outcome of the components of this release, including the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings could determine not only the direction of the US 500 into the weekend but how it performs across the early part of September, a month which is historically one of the worst for US 500 performance. Technical Update: Trend Extension or Trend Reversal? A bullish uptrend is defined by higher price highs and higher price lows, reflecting positive sentiment. Traders within this backdrop are seen to buy dips in price at a higher level each time and are able to push prices above the previous high. As the chart above shows, the US 500 index appears a classic example of an uptrend, with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows emerging since the April 7th low. While the US 500 index may currently be tracing out a bullish trend, further price strength isn’t guaranteed, especially with Friday’s payrolls data looming. This release has the potential to shift investor sentiment in either direction, so traders could find it useful to monitor key support and resistance levels closely. Potential Resistance Levels to Monitor: The recovery from the September 2nd low of 6363, which was above the prior August 20th low of 6347, suggests the uptrend remains intact, keeping the focus on the August 28th all-time high at 6512. A close above this level could signal further price strength. While no guarantee of continued upside, a break above 6512 may open a path towards 6775, which is the 100% Fibonacci extension, and potentially higher. Potential Support Levels to Monitor: If the US 500 index is maintaining an uptrend in price, the potentially important support focus is the August 20th low at 6347. A close below 6347 could see a negative shift in sentiment and increase the risk of a deeper decline. A close below 6347 might well be a trigger for renewed weakness, with potential then to test 6214, the August 1st low, and possibly further. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
SPX500 | Indexes Rise Ahead of JOLTS Data – Key Pivot 6,438S&P 500 & Nasdaq Futures – Update Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded on Wednesday, led by gains in Alphabet after its antitrust ruling. Dow futures edged slightly lower as traders await fresh labor market data. The focus today is the JOLTS report (10 a.m. ET), the first of several key releases this week, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday being the most important. Technical Outlook (SPX500): 🔼 Price reversed from the 6,366 support mentioned in yesterday’s update and has now stabilized above the pivot line at 6,438. As long as price holds above 6,438, upside momentum is expected toward 6,469 → 6,489, with extended resistance at 6,528. 🔻 On the downside, a confirmed 1H close below 6,420 would shift momentum bearish, exposing 6,389 → 6,361. Key Levels: Resistance: 6,469 – 6,489 – 6,528 Support: 6,420 – 6,389 – 6,361
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 | Rising Wedge at Highs – April VWAP in FocusThe S&P 500 has been climbing inside a rising wedge pattern, often seen as a sign that momentum is slowing down. At the same time, the RSI is showing lower highs, which hints at weakening strength behind the move. Right now, the market feels like it’s waiting for a spark. That spark could come from the macro side — whether it’s rising bond yields making stocks look less attractive, political and trade policy uncertainty shaking confidence, or fresh worries about how much longer central banks can keep rates high. Any of these could act as the trigger for a break. If the wedge breaks to the downside, the first key area to watch is the anchored VWAP from the April lows. That level has the potential to act as a support zone, since it represents where buyers stepped back in during the last big turnaround after the tariff scare. For now, it’s a case of patience and levels: wedge support on the downside, VWAP from April as the bigger decision point.
SP:SPX
by AlchemyMarkets