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The S&P 500 index remains positive against all oddsThe S&P 500 index remains positive against all odds We noted on 29 September that, amid the US shutdown, sentiment in the S&P 500 index market remained positive, and highlighted factors supporting further growth. Today, the S&P 500 index reached a fresh all‑time high: on Friday morning the price rose above 6 740 points. This confirms the continued optimism among market participants. Today this is supported by news related to the creators of ChatGPT. According to media reports, OpenAI: → has reached a valuation of $500 billion following a deal in which current and former employees sold shares worth around $6.6 billion; → is expanding cooperation with semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea, which is expected to sustain the company’s high growth rate. Thus, OpenAI’s successes are boosting investor optimism ahead of the upcoming earnings season. These and other positive developments might have been overshadowed by the regular Non‑Farm Employment Change report (and other US labour market data), but the Bureau of Labour Statistics is closed due to the shutdown. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart Recent data on the 4‑hour chart of the S&P 500 index underline sustained optimism, as the price develops within a previously established ascending channel, highlighted in blue. From a bullish perspective: → bulls showed strength by breaking a local resistance level at 6 700, which later acted as support (indicated by an arrow); → local peaks allow for steeper upward trendlines to be drawn; → if the move from A→B is seen as the main impulse and B→C as a correction, the correction appears shallow, as the reversal upwards occurred from the 0.382 Fibonacci level, highlighting strong demand. From a bearish perspective: → the price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, where profit‑taking by long holders is typical; → the current peak on the e‑mini S&P 500 chart slightly exceeds the October high (A), suggesting the potential for a bearish divergence; → the absence of news creates an “information vacuum” that could significantly influence market sentiment if filled with negative data. Nonetheless, optimism persists, with Tom Lee (Fundstrat) forecasting that the S&P 500 index will exceed 7 000 points by year‑end. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
S&P 500 – Steady Uptrend Within Rising ChannelThe S&P 500 continues to grind higher within a well-defined rising channel, holding above both the 50-day SMA (6,486) and the 200-day SMA (6,023), which reinforces the broader bullish structure. Price action has respected the channel boundaries since May, with the recent bounce off the mid-line suggesting buyers remain in control. Momentum indicators support the bullish bias: MACD is positive, showing steady upside momentum. RSI sits near 68, not yet overbought but approaching elevated levels, hinting at a possible test of the channel’s upper boundary. As long as price holds above the 6,600 zone, the path of least resistance remains higher, with the channel top near 6,800 as the next potential target. A break below the channel support, however, could trigger a corrective pullback toward the 6,450–6,500 area, aligning with the 50-day SMA. Overall, the trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be treated as buying opportunities while the channel structure holds. -MW
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
S&P500 Short-term Bull Flag formed.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High. The price is currently on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), forming a Bull Flag after a 4H MA100 (green trend-line) rebound last Thursday. This is similar to the Bull Flags of August 25 and 05, which both ended with a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Even the 4H RSI sequences among the 3 fractals are similar with their Lower Highs structures. The only difference is that the price bottomed this time on the 4H MA100 (as mentioned), instead of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) of the previous 3 times. As a result, if this Bull Flag holds, we expect a quick rally to 6720 (just under Fib 1.236). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SPX500 H1 | Bearish Momentum BuildingS&P500 is rising towards the sell entry at 6,647.13, which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to the take profit. Stop loss is at 6,681.57, which is a multi-swing high resistance. Take profit is at 6,614.24, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Short
by Tradu
1
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap support that aligns with t e 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a swing high resistance. Pivot: 6,630.87 1st Support: 6,557.19 1st Resistance: 6,696.24 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
15% uptrend until March 2027Just have a look. The market is in an incredible bull run since 2009. Its move is parabolic and it will probably end around 8000 pips in March 2027. My theory is based in the bottoms of this cycles: 2008-2015-2020-2023-2025 or in other words: Finantial crisis. Covid Israel Conflict Trump´s Tariffs. Other indicators are Gann cycles which collide in the exact points. Therefore, my idea is to see Sp500 at 7800 points in March 2027 before seeing the huge crash that it must be needed to cool off after almost 20 years of bull run.
SP:SPXLong
by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez
SPX Supported by Trendline and Rate Cut ExpectationsThe S&P 500 has been climbing steadily, with the ascending trendline from April acting as a reliable backbone for the move. Despite short-term volatility, buyers continue to defend higher lows. Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts, the trend structure remains intact unless key supports give way. 🔍 Technical Analysis Current price: 6,584 The green trendline (since April) is guiding the advance. Price is consolidating near highs, supported by demand zones underneath. 🛡️ Support Zones & Stop-Loss (White Lines): 🟢 6,537 – 1H Support (Medium Risk) First line of defense for short-term traders. Stop-loss: Below 6,513 🟡 6,018 – Daily Support (Swing Trade Setup) Stronger base for medium-term positioning. Stop-loss: Below 5,919 🧭 Outlook Bullish Case: Hold above 6,537 + April trendline intact → continuation toward new highs above 6,600–6,700. Bearish Case: Break below 6,537 could trigger a correction into 6,018. Losing that zone would weaken the April trendline structure. Bias: Bullish while April trendline holds. 🌍 Fundamental Insight Rate cut expectations continue to provide a macro tailwind for equities. With inflation moderating and yields easing, investors remain willing to support risk assets. A sudden shift in data or Fed tone, however, could test the resilience of the April trendline. ✅ Conclusion The S&P 500 remains in a strong bullish structure, anchored by the April trendline. Unless supports at 6,537 or 6,018 are lost, the path of least resistance remains higher. If you found this useful, please don’t forget to like and follow for more structure-based insights. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
SP:SPXLong
by husseindergham
HOW-TO: Forecast Next-Bar Odds with Markov ProbCast🎯 Goal In 5 minutes, you’ll add Markov ProbCast to a chart, calibrate the “big-move” threshold θ for your instrument/timeframe, and learn how to read the next-bar probabilities and regime signals (🟩 Calm | 🟧 Neutral | 🟥 Volatile). 🧩 Add & basic setup Open any chart and timeframe you trade. Add Markov ProbCast — P(next-bar) Forecast Panel from the Public Library (search “Markov ProbCast”). Inputs (recommended starting point): • Returns: Log • Include Volume (z-score): On (Lookback = 60) • Include Range (HL/PrevClose): On • Rolling window N (transitions): 90 • θ as percent: start at 0.5% (we’ll calibrate next) • Freeze forecast at last close: On (stable readings) • Display: leave plots/partition/samples On 📏 Calibrate θ (2-minute method) Pick θ so the “>+θ” bucket truly flags meaningful bars for your market & timeframe. Try: • If intraday majors / large caps: θ ≈ 0.2%–0.6% on 1–5m; 0.3%–0.8% on 15–60m. • If high-vol crypto / small caps: θ ≈ 0.5%–1.5% on 1–5m; 0.8%–2.0% on 15–60m. Then watch the Partition row for a day: if the “>+θ” bucket is almost never triggered, lower θ a bit; if it’s firing constantly, raise θ. Aim so “>+θ” captures move sizes you actually care about. 📖 Read the panel (what the numbers mean) • P(next r > 0) : Directional tilt for the very next candle. • P(next r > +θ) : Odds of a “big” upside move beyond your θ. • P(next r < −θ) : Odds of a “big” downside move. • Partition (>+θ | 0..+θ | −θ..0 | <−θ): Four buckets that ≈ sum to 100%. • Next Regime Probs : Chance the market flips to 🟩 Calm / 🟧 Neutral / 🟥 Volatile next bar. • Samples : How many historical next-bar examples fed each next-state estimate (confidence cue). Note: Heavy calculations update on confirmed bars; with “Freeze” on, values won’t flicker intrabar. 📚 Two practical playbooks Breakout prep • Watch P(next r > +θ) trending up and staying elevated (e.g., > 25–35%). • A rising Next Regime: Volatile probability supports expansion context. • Combine with your trigger (structure break, session open, liquidity sweep). Mean-reversion defense • If already long and P(next r < −θ) lifts while Volatile odds rise, consider trimming size, widening stops, or waiting for a better setup. • Mirror the logic for shorts when P(next r > +θ) lifts. ⚙️ Tuning & tips • N=90 balances adaptivity and stability. For very fast regimes, try 60; for slower instruments, 120. • Keep Freeze at close on for cleaner alerts/decisions. • If Samples are small and values look jumpy, give it time (more bars) or increase N slightly. 🧠 Why this works (the math, briefly) We learn a 3-state regime and its transition matrix A (A = P(Sₜ₊₁=j | Sₜ=i)), estimate next-bar event odds conditioned on the next state (e.g., q_gt(j)=P(rₜ₊₁>+θ | Sₜ₊₁=j)), then forecast by mixing: P(event) = Σⱼ A · q(event | next=j). Laplace/Beta smoothing, per-state sample gating, and unconditional fallbacks keep estimates robust. ❓FAQ • Why do probabilities change across instruments/timeframes? Different volatility structure → different transitions and conditional odds. • Why do I sometimes see “…” or NA? Not enough recent samples for a next-state; the tool falls back until data accumulate. • Can I use it standalone? It’s a context/forecast panel—pair it with your entry/exit rules and risk management. 📣 Want more? If you’d like an edition with alerts , σ-based θ, quantile regime cutoffs, and a compact ribbon—or a full strategy that uses these probabilities for entries, filters, and sizing—please Like this post and comment “Pro” or “Strategy”. Your feedback decides what we release next.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Algorific
Trading Crude Oil and the Geopolitical Impact on Prices1. The Basics of Crude Oil Trading Crude oil trading involves buying and selling contracts that represent the value of oil, typically through futures, options, and spot markets. The two most widely used benchmarks are: West Texas Intermediate (WTI): A light, sweet crude primarily produced in the United States. Brent Crude: Extracted from the North Sea, it serves as the global benchmark for oil pricing. Oil prices are determined by a combination of market fundamentals (supply and demand), speculative activities, and geopolitical factors. Traders use various tools to forecast price movements, such as analyzing OPEC reports, inventory levels, and global economic data. The key players in oil trading include: Oil-producing countries and national oil companies (e.g., Saudi Aramco, Rosneft). International oil corporations (e.g., ExxonMobil, BP, Shell). Financial institutions and hedge funds. Retail traders and investors trading oil futures or ETFs. 2. Geopolitical Factors Influencing Crude Oil Prices Oil is not merely a commodity; it is a strategic resource. This makes it extremely sensitive to political instability, war, sanctions, and diplomatic decisions. Some of the major geopolitical influences on crude oil prices include: a. Conflicts in Oil-Producing Regions Most of the world’s oil reserves are located in politically volatile regions like the Middle East, Africa, and parts of South America. Any conflict in these areas can lead to supply disruptions or fears of shortage, pushing prices higher. For example: The Iraq War (2003) caused Brent crude prices to spike above $40 per barrel, reflecting fears of supply disruptions. The Yemen conflict and attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in 2019 led to a sudden 15% increase in global oil prices within a day. Traders closely monitor these developments because they directly affect production, transportation, and export capacities. b. OPEC and OPEC+ Decisions The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with its allies (OPEC+), plays a critical role in controlling global oil supply. Decisions regarding production quotas can dramatically alter prices. For instance: When OPEC decided to cut output in 2016 to stabilize prices, Brent crude rose from around $30 to over $50 per barrel within months. In contrast, during the 2020 price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, oil prices collapsed, with WTI even turning negative briefly. Geopolitical alliances and disagreements within OPEC+ remain a major source of price volatility. c. Sanctions and Trade Restrictions Economic sanctions imposed on oil-producing nations can limit their ability to export crude, tightening global supply and raising prices. Prominent examples include: Iranian oil sanctions by the U.S., which have repeatedly affected global oil markets. Sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which drastically reduced its oil exports to Europe, causing a surge in global prices. In such situations, traders speculate on potential supply shortages, leading to sharp movements in futures contracts. d. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) Releases Governments, especially major consumers like the U.S., China, and India, maintain strategic reserves of oil to cushion against supply disruptions. When tensions rise or prices spike, these countries may release oil from reserves to stabilize markets. For example, in 2022, the U.S. released millions of barrels from its SPR to counter rising prices after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While these releases provide short-term relief, they rarely alter long-term price trends unless accompanied by broader policy shifts. e. Global Alliances and Energy Policies Energy policies and diplomatic relations also play a huge role. Countries may enter alliances to secure stable oil supplies or diversify their sources. For instance: The China-Russia energy partnership has reshaped global oil trade patterns. The U.S. shale revolution reduced American dependence on Middle Eastern oil, altering geopolitical power balances. 3. Case Studies: How Geopolitics Moves Oil Markets Case 1: The Russia-Ukraine War (2022–Present) This conflict caused one of the most dramatic spikes in oil prices in recent history. Russia, being one of the largest oil and gas exporters, faced severe sanctions from Western nations. As a result: Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel. European nations scrambled to find alternative suppliers. Energy inflation soared globally, contributing to a global economic slowdown. This case shows how a single geopolitical event can alter supply chains, trade routes, and investment flows within weeks. Case 2: The Middle East Tensions Recurring tensions between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel have historically shaken oil markets. The closure threats of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil passes, are particularly alarming for traders. Even rumors of blockade or military action lead to speculative buying and price hikes. Case 3: The U.S. Shale Boom While not a “conflict,” the rise of shale oil production in the United States changed global geopolitics. By 2018, the U.S. became the world’s largest oil producer, reducing its dependency on OPEC and reshaping global energy diplomacy. This led to more competitive pricing, strategic shifts in OPEC policies, and a new era of price volatility. 4. Trading Strategies During Geopolitical Uncertainty Professional traders and investors employ various strategies to navigate geopolitical risks in oil markets: a. Hedging Companies involved in energy-intensive industries use futures and options to hedge against price fluctuations. For example, airlines lock in fuel prices to avoid losses due to sudden price spikes. b. Speculative Trading Traders often capitalize on volatility triggered by geopolitical news. They use tools like technical analysis, sentiment indicators, and futures spreads to predict short-term price movements. c. Diversification Investors may diversify their portfolios across different commodities or asset classes (such as gold, natural gas, or renewable energy stocks) to reduce exposure to oil market volatility. d. Monitoring News and Reports Geopolitical events unfold rapidly. Traders rely on real-time news, OPEC bulletins, and government reports to make quick decisions. Platforms like Bloomberg, Reuters, and TradingView offer live analysis tools tailored to geopolitical risks. 5. The Role of Speculation and Market Psychology In modern oil markets, perception often drives prices as much as actual supply-demand data. A threat of conflict or a statement by a political leader can move prices instantly, even before any tangible disruption occurs. For instance: Tweets from policymakers or rumors of sanctions can trigger algorithmic trading activity. Fear of shortages leads to speculative buying, amplifying price rallies. Conversely, peace agreements or ceasefires often trigger sell-offs. This behavior shows how market psychology magnifies geopolitical effects, making oil one of the most sentiment-driven commodities. 6. Global Economic Impact of Oil Price Volatility Oil prices affect every sector of the global economy. The consequences of geopolitical-driven price swings are far-reaching: Inflation: Higher oil prices raise transportation and manufacturing costs, leading to overall inflation. Currency Fluctuations: Oil-exporting countries benefit from stronger currencies during price spikes, while import-dependent economies face weakening currencies. Stock Markets: Rising oil prices often pressure equities in energy-dependent industries but benefit oil producers. Interest Rates: Central banks may adjust interest rates in response to energy-driven inflation. Trade Balances: Nations that import large volumes of oil, like India and Japan, experience worsening trade deficits when oil prices rise. Thus, geopolitical disruptions in the oil market can reshape global financial stability. 7. The Transition to Renewable Energy and Future Outlook As the world moves toward renewable energy, the geopolitical landscape of oil is slowly shifting. However, oil remains indispensable in global energy consumption. Despite rising investments in solar and wind, oil still accounts for over 30% of the world’s primary energy supply. In the future: Energy diversification may reduce the geopolitical leverage of major oil producers. Green energy policies in the U.S., EU, and China may dampen long-term oil demand. Yet, short-term volatility driven by geopolitics is likely to persist as conflicts and alliances evolve. Furthermore, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage technologies will reshape demand patterns. However, developing economies will continue to rely heavily on oil for decades, ensuring that geopolitical influences remain potent. 8. Conclusion Trading crude oil is not merely a financial activity—it is a reflection of global power dynamics, politics, and economic interests. The intricate relationship between geopolitical events and oil prices ensures that traders must constantly monitor global developments, from military conflicts to OPEC meetings. Key takeaways: Oil is both an economic and political weapon. Geopolitical instability often leads to supply fears and price surges. Sanctions, wars, and alliances directly impact trading strategies and market psychology. Understanding global events is essential for successful crude oil trading. In essence, geopolitics is the invisible hand that moves the oil market. Whether it’s a conflict in the Middle East, sanctions on Russia, or production decisions in OPEC+, each event creates ripples across global trade and financial markets. For traders, mastering the art of interpreting these events is the key to navigating the world’s most volatile and influential commodity—crude oil.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
The S&P500 paused on AI valuation concerns and trade fears The US equity rally, driven by optimism over AI momentum, Fed rate-cut expectations, and solid consumer data, lost steam after President Trump’s combative remarks toward China. Delta Air Lines beat 3Q estimates with profit up 4.1% YoY and EPS at 1.71 USD, while Costco’s (COST) Sep sales rose 8% YoY, underscoring resilient US consumption. However, Trump’s threat of steep tariff hikes triggered the S&P; 500’s sharpest one-day drop in three months. US500 extended its sharp decline, briefly testing the support at 6530. The index broke below the ascending channel's lower bound, suggesting a potential shift toward bearish momentum. If US500 breaks below the support at 6530 again, the index may retreat toward the next support at 6420. Conversely, if US500 breaches above EMA21 and the resistance at 6700, the index may advance toward the psychological resistance at 6800.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by inkicho_exness
S&P 500 - Buy Zone PlanThe S&P 500 remains in a strong long-term uptrend, trading within a rising channel. After months of steady gains, price has now pulled back sharply from the top of the channel — a healthy correction within the bigger trend. 🔹 Buy Targets • Target 1 (Buy Zone): ~6,400 – first key support near the 50 SMA • Target 2 (Buy Zone): ~6,200 – aligning with the 100 SMA • Target 3 (Worst Case – Buy): ~6,000 – near the 200 SMA and major trendline support These levels represent staggered accumulation points, allowing for gradual buying if the correction deepens. 🔹 RSI View The RSI has dropped near 40, showing a cooling-off phase. If it dips below this level, it could signal oversold conditions and mark a potential bottom. 🔹 Outlook • The pullback looks like a gap-fill and mean reversion within the uptrend. • I’ll look to accumulate quality U.S. stocks around these targets, focusing on strong fundamentals and large-cap names. • The broader structure stays bullish unless the 200 SMA breaks decisively. 🧠 “Pullbacks in bull markets are opportunities, not threats.” 📜 Disclaimer: This is general information only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.
SP:SPX
by Amer_Shouaeb
SP500 4H🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths. As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels. ⚠️ Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way. ✅ Recommendation for Use: To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
VANTAGE:SP500
by Deltafx_Broker