Still resistance and divergenceThe price is hitting VWAP and trendline resistance again, daily RSI divergence holds. It can squeeze higher, but holding longs at this point is like playing with fire from my point of view.
SPX trade ideas
SPX500 Bullish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
#SPX500 is trading in a
Strong uptrend and is made a bullish
Breakout of the key
Horizontal level of 6470.89
Which is now a support
And as the breakout is
Confirmed we will be
Expecting a further bullish !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
SPX500USD – Holding Above 6,490, Targeting 6,540The S&P 500 Index has cleared the 6,490 resistance level, confirming bullish strength. Price is now holding above this zone, with momentum building toward the next upside target at 6,540.
Support at: 6,490 / 6,440 🔽
Resistance at: 6,540 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustained strength above 6,490 keeps 6,540 in focus.
🔽 Bearish: A break back below 6,490 and 6,440 would weaken momentum.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
SPX is in a clear breakout trend! SP:SPX has triggered 2 larger bullish patterns.
Both patterns result in higher price.
Despite the weakness in NVDA the markets have shrugged off the decline.
We are trading into new all time highs so price discovery mode is in a effect.
When you have no resistance pivots or volume to trade against at new all time highs you really have to be careful if you're shorting the market.
Volume trends. extension moves, ATR, deviations should all be included in your analysis to define upside target zones.
We continue to remain net long the markets with key shorts in place.
SPX500 27.08.2025~+ Dovish Fed
*Trading into NVDA earnings, gave a wider SL to potentially withstand erratic swings + didn't touch NDX.
S&P500 Nvidia’s guidance has tempered risk appetiteNvidia’s earnings dampened sentiment overnight, with shares down -3% in after-hours trading after a strong Q2 sales beat was overshadowed by softer guidance and concerns over a potential US plan to tax China AI chip sales. The disappointment weighed on futures, with NASDAQ 100 down -0.29% vs. -0.12% for S&P 500.
That said, prior to the results, the S&P 500 (+0.24%) closed at another record high, supported by strength in energy (+1.15%) on firmer oil prices and tech (+0.48%). Small-caps also outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+0.64%) at an 8-month high, now just 3% below its November 2021 peak.
Takeaway for S&P traders: Nvidia’s guidance has tempered risk appetite, but sector rotation into energy and small-caps continues to support breadth, helping the index hold record levels despite tech headwinds.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6516
Resistance Level 2: 6542
Resistance Level 3: 6564
Support Level 1: 6416
Support Level 2: 6400
Support Level 3: 6381
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S&P 500 Index Reaches Another All-Time HighS&P 500 Index Reaches Another All-Time High
On 13 August, we wrote about the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high following the release of the CPI report. At that time, we suggested that the price might move towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel (highlighted in blue on the chart).
Since then:
→ the price has set a new record, forming peak 0 near the upper boundary of the channel;
→ it then fell back towards the lower boundary, where block A was formed;
→ and subsequently rose again to a fresh all-time high (F), coming close to the 6500 level.
The resilience of the blue channel underlines the prevailing bullish sentiment, which is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September – an event seen as positive for the economy and potentially boosting corporate earnings. This optimism is so far outweighing the fact that Nvidia’s shares slipped slightly yesterday after the company’s earnings release (despite results exceeding investor expectations).
But is the outlook entirely cloudless?
S&P 500 Chart Technical Analysis
Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500, there are grounds to make slight adjustments to the slope and width of the ascending channel to better reflect the latest data.
At first glance, the picture appears bullish:
→ long lower shadows around block A point to strong buying interest;
→ downward pullbacks (B→C following impulse A→B, and D→E following impulse C→D) halted near the classic 50% Fibonacci retracement;
→ higher lows in late August give reason to consider the formation of a cup and handle pattern.
However, the bears also have their counterarguments:
→ the 6,500 level could act as psychological resistance (with the risk of a false bullish breakout);
→ the upper boundary of the channel may provide resistance;
→ the marked extremes resemble a bearish rising wedge pattern.
Progress in establishing new highs is becoming weaker each time – it seems that the S&P 500 bull market is running out of steam. This raises concerns about a correction – and with September’s long-standing reputation as the most unfavourable month for markets, a noticeable pullback could happen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 Hits 6,495 Before Pullback, Key Pivot at 6,468SPX500 Futures – Overview
The S&P 500 continues to record new highs, peaking at 6,495 before pulling back for a correction.
Price action has since settled above 6,485 on the 4H candle — the previous high — and is now correcting back toward this level, preparing for a potential new upward move.
🔹 Technical Outlook
Holding above 6,485 will support bullish continuation toward 6,512 → 6,528 new ATH.
⚠️ A break below 6,485 and a confirmed 1H close under 6,468 (pivot) would signal a new decline toward 6,425 support.
Key Levels
Pivot: 6,468
Resistance: 6,512 – 6,528
Support: 6,485 – 6,468 – 6,438 – 6,425
✅ Summary:
SPX500 remains in a bullish structure after reaching new highs. Watch 6,485 as the key decision level — holding above favors continuation higher, while a drop below 6,468 could trigger a deeper correction.
Correlation Traps: When Diversification Isn’t DiversifyingYou thought you were diversified. You had tech, energy, crypto, gold — a little bit of everything. Then a single headline nuked your entire portfolio in one day. Welcome to the sneaky world of correlation traps.
🧩 The Diversification Myth
Everyone loves to brag about their diversified portfolio. Some Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA here, Rocket Lab NASDAQ:RKLB there, maybe sprinkle in some Solana COINBASE:SOLUSD “for balance.”
But if your carefully curated mix of assets moves in the same direction every time Powell says “Good afternoon” at a Fed event… are you really diversified? Or are you just collecting different-shaped eggs in the same basket?
This is the correlation trap — the illusion of safety when your assets are secretly plotting against you. On paper, your portfolio says “hedged.” In practice, one bad CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI print, a tariff tweet, or an AI bubble hiccup can torch your entire P&L statement for the month.
And it works both ways. When Powell signals cuts, everything rallies: stocks, crypto, commodities, even meme ETFs. Suddenly, your “balanced” portfolio becomes a leveraged bet on a single narrative.
📉 Positive Correlation = Double Trouble
Correlation measures how two assets move relative to each other. Positive correlation means they tend to move together. That sounds fine on the upside — everyone’s a genius in bull markets. But when the markets get stressed, it doesn’t really matter if you’re holding traditional stocks or crypto assets.
Here's an example. March 2020. The S&P 500 SP:SPX cratered. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD lost more than half of its value in a week. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD dipped. Even safe-haven treasury ETFs had a panic moment. When markets really go risk-off, assets that are usually uncorrelated can suddenly drop in sync.
Why does this happen? Herd behavior, mostly. When traders, funds, and algos all unwind positions at once, correlations spike. In times of panic, cash is king.
🛡️ Negative Correlation = Your Actual Friend
True diversification comes from mixing assets with low or negative correlation. Historically, think equities vs. treasuries, or stocks vs. gold. When risk assets like stocks get wrecked, safe-haven assets like gold often move up to soften the blow.
But even these aren’t bulletproof anymore. Rising inflation, aggressive tariff broadside, and geopolitical headlines can disrupt traditional correlations. Traders relying on “old rules” learn quickly that markets evolve, and yesterday’s safe havens don’t always save you today.
Traders often assume “low correlation” equals “zero risk” or “perfect hedge.” Not really. Low correlation can vanish during high-volatility events — exactly when you need it the most.
Correlation creep is real — and unless you check, you could be risking more than you think.
🧠 Trading Psychology Meets Correlation
Correlation traps aren’t just technical — they can mess with your thinking. Traders often overestimate how diversified they are, which breeds overconfidence. You assume your downside is limited… until a risk event wipes you out across positions you thought were independent.
The result? Revenge trading . Over-sizing. Ignoring stop-losses. The correlation trap becomes a psychological spiral if you don’t plan your true exposure correctly.
🛠️ Avoiding the Trap: Practical Moves That Work
Run the numbers. You’ve built out a perfect portfolio? Check where your picks are coming from and where they fit using the TradingView Heatmaps and Screeners .
Diversify by driver, not ticker. If multiple assets react to the same narrative, you’re likely not truly diversified.
Add true hedges. Bonds, gold, cash, and volatility products can help — but only if you size them correctly.
Watch cross-asset flows. Use correlations between equities, commodities, FX, and crypto to spot when risk is clustering.
The key takeaway? Diversification isn’t about owning “a little of everything.” It’s about owning different risk exposures.
👉 Bottom Line
Diversification fails when you mistake quantity for quality. Five correlated trades don’t make you hedged; they make you levered without you knowing it.
Correlation traps creep up quietly, especially during euphoric rallies when every chart goes up together. But when sentiment flips — and it does flip — you find out real quickly what’s actually diversified and what isn’t.
Next time someone brags about holding “uncorrelated” assets, ask them one question: “Did they all move the same way on the last CPI print ?” If the answer’s yes, maybe it’s time to rethink what diversification really means.
Off to you : How do you balance your portfolio? Or maybe you’re not after diversification and instead you’re chasing concentration? Share your approach in the comments!
S&P500 INDEX (US500): To the New Highs?!
US500 is going to break a resistance based on a current all-time high.
A daily candle close above the underlined structure will provide a confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 6520 then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SEPTEMBER, the worst month for the S&P 500?What trend for the S&P 500 index this September 2025? A highly anticipated September as the fundamental back-to-school issues are crucial for the year-end trend.
September is the worst month for the S&P 500 index in terms of seasonality, and investors fear a drop in the US stock market this September while fundamental challenges are not lacking (the FED on Wednesday, September 17) and the S&P 500 is as expensive as it was at the end of 2021 in terms of valuation. Is this bearish consensus a trap?
On the topic of the S&P 500 valuation, I invite you to reread the analysis we published on July 30 by clicking on the image below.
1. Is September really the worst month in terms of performance for the S&P 500 index?
YES! Yes, September is indeed the worst month in the history of the S&P 500 index in terms of average performance. The average performance of September is negative, and no other month of the year shows a negative performance for the S&P 500.
However, be very cautious with this type of statistics, as it is only an average, and still, 47% of the September months in S&P 500 history have recorded a positive performance.
The data source below is indicated at the bottom right of the table.
2. The final performance of September 2025 will be dictated by fundamentals, in particular the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17.
The Fed has not lowered the federal funds rate since the end of 2024, and the US stock market now needs an accommodative monetary shift to preserve its long-term bullish trend. In one of my articles last week, I examined the 3 possible scenarios for the federal funds rate by the end of the year as well as the stock market impact for equities, bonds, the US dollar, and Bitcoin.
The table below summarizes the 3 possible cases and the potential market impact; you can access all details by clicking on it.
It is Powell’s Fed monetary choice on Wednesday, September 17 that will determine the final September performance for the S&P 500 index. The next two figures likely to influence the Fed’s decision are the PCE inflation on Friday, August 29 and the NFP report on Friday, September 5.
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ES Wednesday August 27Quick Long after Price Purged SellSide Liquidity. Market Maker Reversal . Buy Model
Updated analysis on S&PAs per our previous analysis, we mentioned that the price is at a very important resistance level, and if it can break it, it could head toward a new ATH. The price has now managed to break the resistance but is still heavily contested. I believe there’s a higher probability that it will reach a new high in the next few days rather than get rejected and fall back.
S&P 500 (SPX) – Long-Term Channel & Target ZoneS&P 500 (SPX) – Long-Term Channel & Target Zone
🔹 Technical Overview
The S&P 500 continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel since the 2020 lows.
The index recently recovered strongly from the 2022 correction and is now approaching the upper half of the channel.
Measured move from the last significant swing suggests potential upside continuation into a higher target zone.
🔹 Key Levels
Support zone: 5,950 – 6,200 (lower channel area).
Major resistance / target zone: 7,729 – 8,837 USD.
Channel resistance: aligns with the upper boundary of the long-term trend channel.
🔹 Interpretation
As long as the index remains inside the ascending channel, the broader trend is bullish.
A confirmed breakout above 7,729 would open the door to test the extended target near 8,837.
Losing the channel support (below 5,900) would signal a deeper correction and invalidate the near-term bullish structure.
🔹 Conclusion
The S&P 500 remains in a structural uptrend, respecting its long-term channel.
The next major upside target zone sits between 7,729 and 8,837 USD, provided the index holds above the 6,000 area.
📝 Quick Key Points
📊 Trading inside a long-term ascending channel.
📍 Support: 5,950–6,200 USD.
📍 Resistance / target zone: 7,729–8,837 USD.
⚠️ Breakdown below 5,900 would negate the bullish outlook.
US500 Outlook and Key LevelsThe US500 index currently exhibits a balanced market sentiment with a subtle bullish inclination, navigating near critical support levels amid prevailing uncertainties. Market participants are closely monitoring key technical thresholds while awaiting significant economic indications that could trigger a decisive directional move. In this environment, comprehensive analysis comprising both fundamental and technical perspectives is essential for understanding potential market trajectories.
Fundamental Analysis:
This week’s trajectory is predominantly influenced by macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals. The upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is scheduled for Friday. This report is expected to be a pivotal catalyst, shaping investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy stance.
Additionally, major corporate earnings from technology giants such as Nvidia and Salesforce are on the horizon. These reports hold the potential to generate heightened sectoral volatility and influence broader market sentiment. The tone of comments from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Richmond Fed President Barkin, alongside ongoing discussions about the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts, further add to the market’s uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Political developments, including debates over the Fed’s independence and potential geopolitical shocks, also contribute to the overall risk landscape.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical standpoint, the US500’s volatility appears confined within well defined levels, highlighting a range bound market outlook. The key technical levels to watch include:
Support at 6,430: serving as an intraday technical floor, where sustained breaches could signal further downside.
Resistance at 6,530: the pivotal level that, if surpassed, could open the door to bullish extensions and trend acceleration.
Weekly support at 6,340 and resistance at 6,600, defining broader stability and potential extension boundaries.
Key levels are tightly clustered, and the upcoming week’s movement will likely hinge on market reactions to economic data releases, earnings surprises, or central bank signals. A decisive move beyond 6,530 could establish a bullish trend, while a breakdown below 6,430 might reinforce bearish momentum.
Traders should remain vigilant for rapid reactions to top tier event risks and be prepared for potential shifts in market sentiment. The coming days are critical for identifying the next directional bias of the US500, with key levels providing clear guideposts amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SNP500 ShortThis is against the H4 trend; however there is very good resistance at this level, as it is the all-time high and contesting the previous week's high.
There is a pattern on M15 to show a potential reversal zone.
Multiple tops on M15 to H1 with divergence and showing the trends flattening out.
This is against the trend so look to get out at M15 oversold
SPX500 Futures Hold Gains Ahead of Nvidia EarningsSPX500 Futures – Overview
Markets Edge Higher Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
U.S. stock futures are trading slightly higher on Wednesday as investors await Nvidia’s earnings after today’s closing bell, seen as a bellwether for global AI demand and overall market sentiment.
🔹 Technical Outlook
Price has stabilized above 6,471, confirming bullish momentum.
As long as it holds above this level, upside targets are 6,484 → 6,512 → 6,528.
✅ A 1H close above 6,484 would reinforce the bullish outlook toward higher resistance.
⚠️ However, if the index reverses and stabilizes below 6,471 (1H close), this would trigger a bearish correction toward 6,447.
🔹 Key Levels
Pivot: 6,471
Resistance: 6,484 – 6,512 – 6,528
Support: 6,447 – 6,425 – 6,390
✅ Summary:
SPX500 futures are consolidating in bullish territory ahead of Nvidia earnings. A breakout above 6,484 would extend upside momentum, while a drop back below 6,471 risks a correction toward 6,447.
S&P500 at Resistance: Nvidia Earnings Could Decide the Next Move📊 US500 (S&P 500) has rallied recently 📈, but it’s still struggling to break through the current highs 🔼🧱.
💡 I believe the next move could hinge heavily on Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow 🖥️💵.
👉 If the report is positive, watch for a break and retest above the current range to position long 🚀.
👉 If the report is negative, we could see the broader stock market sell off 📉.
⚠️ This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice 📚🔒
Why Stocks Often Drop in September — And Why Algos Make It WorseSeptember has historically been a challenging month for stocks, especially indexes like the S&P 500. While several human behavioral factors contribute, algorithmic trading significantly amplifies this effect. I am expecting S&P to retreat to 5900 lvls and stocks to drop heavily alreadt end of this week.
Algos Are Programmed to React to Seasonal Patterns:
Many trading algorithms are trained on historical market data that include the “September Effect”—the well-known tendency for stocks to dip during this month. As a result, these algorithms trigger sell signals simultaneously as September approaches, cascading into accelerated selling pressure.
Profit Taking at Summer’s End:
Institutional investors and traders often take profits at the end of August after strong summer gains, reducing exposure before expected volatility. This human behavior feeds into the algo models, reinforcing selling trends.
Order Splitting and Speed Amplify Moves:
Algorithms slice large orders into smaller ones to minimize market impact, but when many algos do this in sync, it leads to sharp intraday swings. High-frequency trading can exacerbate rapid price drops as sell orders pile up quickly.
Hedging and Risk Controls Kick In:
As prices fall, algos are programmed to cut risk by selling to limit losses. These automated sell-offs can create feedback loops, pushing prices down faster than human emotions alone would.
Volatility Spurs More Selling:
Increased price swings prompt further algorithmic adjustments and human caution—creating a self-reinforcing cycle of volatility and declines.
Bottom Line: With profit-taking wrapping up August and algo-driven selling ramping up, the S&P 500 is likely to begin a retreat of at least 5% soon, echoing historical September patterns. For disciplined investors, this period is an opportunity to consider taking profits or reducing risk before broader market weakness potentially sets in.
A very important resistance.If the index manages to break through this resistance, it would essentially be a fake breakout, and the path toward reaching a new all-time high would become much smoother.
US500 breaks consolidation, eyeing all-time highs after pullbackThe US500 reached a key support area on the H1 chart and started building a bullish structure.
On the intraday (M5/M1), price broke above local resistance and then retested the breakout zone with a clean pullback. This retest was confirmed by a strong bullish candle, signaling continuation to the upside.
Trade plan:
Entry: after confirmation of the pullback at the breakout zone.
Stop-loss: below support (around 6437).
Target: all-time high zone at 6485–6490.
Risk management: once the first target is reached, stop can be moved to breakeven to protect capital.
This setup supports the expectation of bullish continuation, as long as support holds.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-26-2025It seems that traders were taking profit yesterday after Friday's huge move up.
Level to watch: 6452 --- 6454
