Trade ideas
The Global Shadow Banking System1. Understanding Shadow Banking
1.1 Definition
Shadow banking refers to the system of credit intermediation that occurs outside the scope of traditional banking regulation. Coined by economist Paul McCulley in 2007, the term highlights how non-bank entities perform bank-like functions such as maturity transformation (borrowing short-term and lending long-term), liquidity transformation, and leverage creation—yet without the same safeguards, such as deposit insurance or central bank backstops.
1.2 Key Characteristics
Non-bank entities: Shadow banking is carried out by hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms, securitization vehicles, and other institutions.
Credit intermediation: It channels savings into investments, much like traditional banks.
Regulatory arbitrage: It often arises where financial activity moves into less regulated areas to avoid capital and liquidity requirements.
Opacity: Complex instruments and off-balance sheet entities make it difficult to track risks.
1.3 Distinction from Traditional Banking
Unlike regulated banks:
Shadow banks cannot access central bank liquidity in times of crisis.
They lack deposit insurance, increasing systemic vulnerability.
They rely heavily on short-term wholesale funding such as repurchase agreements (repos).
2. Historical Evolution of Shadow Banking
2.1 Early Developments
Shadow banking’s roots can be traced to the 1970s and 1980s, when deregulation in advanced economies allowed financial innovation to flourish. Rising global capital flows created demand for new instruments outside traditional bank lending.
2.2 Rise of Securitization
The 1980s–2000s saw the explosion of securitization, where loans (e.g., mortgages) were bundled into securities and sold to investors. Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and conduits became central actors in shadow banking, financing long-term assets with short-term borrowing.
2.3 Pre-Crisis Boom (2000–2007)
The shadow system expanded rapidly before the 2008 financial crisis. Investment banks, money market funds, and structured investment vehicles financed trillions in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). This system appeared efficient but was highly fragile.
2.4 The 2008 Financial Crisis
When U.S. subprime mortgage markets collapsed, shadow banks faced a sudden liquidity freeze. Lacking deposit insurance and central bank support, institutions like Lehman Brothers collapsed, triggering global contagion. The crisis revealed the systemic importance—and dangers—of shadow banking.
2.5 Post-Crisis Reconfiguration
After 2008, regulators tightened banking rules, pushing even more activities into the shadow system. Simultaneously, reforms such as tighter money market fund rules sought to contain systemic risks. Despite these efforts, shadow banking has continued to grow, especially in China and emerging markets.
3. Structure of the Shadow Banking System
The shadow banking universe is diverse, consisting of multiple actors and instruments.
3.1 Key Entities
Money Market Funds (MMFs) – Provide short-term financing by investing in highly liquid securities.
Hedge Funds & Private Equity – Use leverage to provide credit, often in riskier markets.
Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) – Finance long-term securities through short-term borrowing.
Finance Companies – Offer consumer and business loans without deposit funding.
Broker-Dealers – Rely on repo markets to fund securities inventories.
Securitization Conduits & SPVs – Issue asset-backed securities (ABS).
3.2 Instruments and Mechanisms
Repos (Repurchase Agreements) – Short-term loans secured by collateral.
Commercial Paper – Unsecured short-term debt issued by corporations or conduits.
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) – Bundled mortgage loans sold to investors.
Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) – Structured products pooling various debt instruments.
Derivatives – Instruments like credit default swaps (CDS) that transfer credit risk.
3.3 Interconnectedness
The system is deeply interconnected with traditional banks. Many shadow entities rely on bank credit lines, while banks invest in shadow assets. This interdependence amplifies systemic risk.
4. Global Dimensions of Shadow Banking
4.1 United States
The U.S. remains the epicenter, with trillions in assets managed by MMFs, hedge funds, and securitization vehicles. Its role in the 2008 crisis highlighted its global impact.
4.2 Europe
European banks historically relied on securitization and repo markets, making shadow banking integral to cross-border finance. Luxembourg and Ireland are major hubs due to favorable regulations.
4.3 China
China’s shadow banking system emerged in the 2000s as a response to tight bank lending quotas. Wealth management products (WMPs), trust companies, and informal lending channels fueled rapid credit growth. While supporting growth, they also raised concerns of hidden debt risks.
4.4 Emerging Markets
In Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, shadow banking fills credit gaps left by underdeveloped banking sectors. However, limited oversight raises systemic vulnerabilities.
5. Benefits of Shadow Banking
Despite its risks, shadow banking provides several advantages:
Credit Diversification – Expands funding beyond banks.
Market Liquidity – Enhances efficiency in capital markets.
Financial Innovation – Encourages new instruments and risk-sharing mechanisms.
Access to Credit – Supports SMEs and consumers underserved by traditional banks.
Global Capital Mobility – Facilitates international investment flows.
6. Risks and Challenges
6.1 Systemic Risk
Shadow banking increases interconnectedness, making financial crises more contagious.
6.2 Maturity and Liquidity Mismatch
Borrowing short-term while investing in long-term assets creates vulnerability to runs.
6.3 Leverage
High leverage amplifies both profits and losses, making collapses more severe.
6.4 Opacity and Complexity
Structured products like CDOs obscure underlying risks.
6.5 Regulatory Arbitrage
Activities shift to less regulated domains, making oversight difficult.
6.6 Spillover to Traditional Banking
Banks are exposed through investments, credit lines, and funding dependencies.
Conclusion
The global shadow banking system is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it enhances financial diversity, supports credit creation, and fuels innovation. On the other, it introduces opacity, leverage, and systemic fragility that can destabilize economies. The 2008 crisis demonstrated how vulnerabilities in the shadow system can trigger global turmoil.
Going forward, regulators must adopt balanced approaches: tightening oversight without stifling beneficial innovation. International coordination is critical, given the cross-border nature of shadow banking. As financial technology evolves, the boundaries between traditional banks, shadow entities, and digital platforms will blur even further.
Ultimately, shadow banking is not merely a “shadow” but an integral part of modern finance—one that demands vigilance, transparency, and adaptive regulation to ensure it serves as a force for stability and growth rather than crisis and contagion.
What to do now that FEDs going to lower interest rates ?This is for traders who enjoys taking advantage of short term market movements. For investors who are holding on to great companies, just sit tight.
The first support level is the gap at 6023 price level. The 2nd level at 5689 is less likely but not impossible. 
This fall will be good as US markets are over valued for a while and any falls will be a good accumulation point. Also, the month of September is also seasonally a down month so no hurry to get in. So do be patient and please DYODD.
it's always the market of stockpickersS&P 500 (SPX): The uptrend continues, with the SPX reaching a new high and nearing a secondary target of 6,625. However, there are significant risks, including historically poor performance during the last ten trading days of September, which coincides with an expected Fed rate cut on September 17. Other risks include narrowing market breadth, NVIDIA's stock trading in a narrow range, and a "Dow Theory" divergence where the industrial average's breakout is unconfirmed by the transportation average.
S&P500 | H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello again Traders
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P is forming a rising wedge on the 1H chart. I don’t usually trade this pattern, but with the price approaching the wedge top, I see a potential short opportunity worth a small risk.
On the 4H chart, there’s an even larger rising wedge at play. My instinct is still that this could turn into a fake-out, so I’m monitoring lower timeframes for short setups that align with the bigger picture.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 9.45
Entry: 6 621.4
Stop Loss: 6 631.0
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 546.2
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 487.4
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts – I’d like to hear them.
📌 Please note:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
S&P500 | H1 Double Top | GTradingMethod👋 Hello traders,
Tried shorting a potential head and shoulders on the 1H chart earlier — it failed. Thankfully, one of my exit rules triggered before my stop loss, so the loss was small, but still not pleasant. That’s trading.
🧐 Market Overview:
The bigger picture remains the same. On the detailed side, I am looking for a potential double top on the hourly chart. RSI is making lower highs while price is making higher highs, which shows weakening buying momentum. For me, this is a non-negotiable variable when trading double tops and head & shoulders setups.
I’ll be waiting for a candle closure in my entry range, alongside a few more confirmations, before taking the next shot. Patience is key here.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.4
Entry: 6 598.4
Stop Loss: 6 608.3
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 567.9
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 557.9
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Losses are part of the process. The key is to keep them small, stick to your rules, and wait for probability to play out over time.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Follow me to catch my next setup, and let me know — do you think this head and shoulders will confirm, or will buyers push the S&P to fresh highs?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
S&P500 | H1 Head and shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders.
🧐 Market Overview:
I am still holding a short on the rising wedge visible on the 4-hour chart. While the S&P 500 has broken out to the upside of the wedge, there’s still a real chance this could be a fake out.
The RSI is showing overbought conditions across the 1H, 2H, and 4H timeframes, which makes it difficult for price to push higher without cooling off first. From a probability standpoint, I see the short as more favorable here than chasing longs.
With hindsight I should have waited for a reversal pattern to open shorts when trying to trade the risking wedge on the 4 hour chart.
If the head and shoulders pattern on the 1H chart fails, then a possible double top on the 2H chart may form. I’ll post an update if that scenario plays out and I have time.
NB! I do not have confirmation to enter the head and shoulders short yet. It is only on my radar for now.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.8
Entry: 6 589.7
Stop Loss: 6 599
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 560.2
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 544.2
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
A favorable setup doesn’t guarantee success, but managing risk and aligning with probability is how I stay consistent over the long term.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts — I’d like to hear them.
📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Applying the Nx BIAS indicator to US500After my latest thread about the 🛡️ Nx BIAS 🛡️ indicator for determining market bias, I decided to take a scalp trade as a backtesting exercise on the US500 pair.
Entry details:
Defined the DOL and Invalidation levels using the Nx Bias indicator on the 2Htimeframe.
Identified the area of interest and executed the entry on the 5m - 1m timeframe for the same pair.
Next steps and forward testing:
I will be testing this indicator more extensively. The main goal is to rely solely on it for bias determination under live market conditions to evaluate its real-time performance, moving beyond backtesting results.
Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
Best regards,
Note: The indicator is not yet available and will be released soon under the name Nx Candle Bias.
SPX500 Holds Below 6,590 Pivot – Key Breakout Levels AheadSPX500 – Overview
The S&P 500 is showing bullish momentum but remains sensitive to the 6,590 pivot for confirmation of the next move.
📉 Bearish scenario: As long as price trades below 6,590, momentum favors a drop toward 6,571. A confirmed break under 6,571 would open the way to 6,550 → 6,527.
📈 Bullish scenario: A 1H close above 6,590 would shift bias bullish, targeting 6,604 → 6,631.
Key Level
Pivot: 6,590
Resistance: 6,604 – 6,631
Support: 6,571 – 6,550 – 6,527
SPX: rte-cut hypeJust a week before the September FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 reached another fresh, new all-time highest level at 6.594 at Friday's trading session. The index managed to gain another 1,6% for the week. The latest move is sort of gearing-up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is expecting to see a 25 bps cut by FED officials. The jobs and inflation figures posted during the week, showed further stabilisation in inflation levels, but also weakening of the US jobs market. Both figures are supportive of the Fed to make a decision over a quarter-point rate cut. However, analysts are noting that the tone and rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell in after the meeting press conference on September 17th, will be crucial for the next move of US equity markets. Certainly, this will mark the most important day for financial markets in the week ahead. 
Tech companies are again the ones that are driving the market to the higher grounds, TSLA gained 7,36% on Friday, continuing a recent upward trend. Despite no major announcements from Tesla, the stock has gained nearly 12% over the past week, driven by investor optimism that declining interest rates could boost car sales. The artificial intelligence tech firm Super Micro Computer jumped 6% after announcing it had begun volume shipments of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions to customers globally. Warner Bros Discovery rose nearly 8%, building on Thursday’s 29% surge, after reports in the news indicated that Paramount Skydance is preparing a takeover offer.
EURUSD: gearing up for FOMCThe Non-farm payrolls annual revision showed a drop of -911K jobs. Analysts are noting that this is another indicator of a cooling US jobs market. The Producers price Index in August dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching 2,6% on a yearly basis. The core PPI also dropped by -0,1%. Both indicators were below market estimates of 0,3% for the month. The Inflation rate in August reached 0,4% for the month and 2,9% on a yearly basis. The core inflation remains a bit elevated at level of 0,3% for month and 3,1% y/y. Friday brought Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary figures for September at 51,8, which was a bit below forecasted 54,9. Inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4,8%. 
The ECB meeting was held during the previous week, where ECB members left interest rates unchanged. The Deposit Facility Rates held at 2%, while Marginal Lending Rate at 2,4%. This was in line with market expectations, considering external challenges for the EU economy, in terms of trade tariffs. The balance of trade in July in Germany reached euro 14,7B, another month with missed market expectations of euro 15,4B. The Industrial Production in July in Germany was higher by 1,3%, above market estimate of 1%. 
For the second week in a row, the eurusd currency pair was moving within a relatively short range. There were no surprises when the ECB interest rate decision was in question, so the market switched its attention to the forthcoming FOMC meeting. The trading range was between 1,1777 down to 1,1663. The RSI continues to oscillate around the 50 level, showing that the market is currently not heaving a clear path toward either side. The MA50 slowly started to converge toward the MA200, but the distance between lines shows that the potential cross is still not in store. 
As already mentioned, the week ahead brings the September FOMC meeting. This one is going to be especially significant, as the market is highly expecting to see the 25 bps cut. Usually , prior to meeting, market nervousness increases, in which sense, some increased volatility might be in store for the currency pair. Current charts are showing potential for a move toward both sides. On the lower grounds, there is potential for 1,1650 to be tested shortly, while on the opposite side, 1,1780 is waiting to be tested for a potential for higher grounds. 
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR:  Wholesale Prices in Germany in August, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in September in Germany, Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in August, Producers Price Index in August in Germany. 
USD:  Retail Sales in August, Building Permits preliminary for August, Housing Starts in August, FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, September 17th, with a press conference after the meeting. 
"US500 BREAKOUT – TIME TO LOAD LIMIT ORDERS FOR THE PUMP?"🔥🦹♂️ "SPX500 BANK HEIST – LAYERED BULL RAID IN PROGRESS!" 💰📈
(Thief Trader’s Multi-Limit Order Bullish Ambush – No Weak Hands Allowed)
📍 ASSET: US500 / SPX500 (S&P 500 INDEX)
🎯 HEIST PLAN: BULLISH BREAKOUT 6500.00
💣 ENTRY: ANY PRICE LEVEL (Thieves use Layered Limit Orders – adapt like a pro!)
🔫 SAMPLE LAYERS: (Scale in like a boss!)
BUY LIMIT LAYER 1: 6475.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 2: 6460.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 3: 6440.00
(Add more layers if needed – flexibility is key!)
🛑 STOP LOSS: 6400.00 (Thief’s Emergency Exit – adjust based on your risk!)
🎯 TARGET: 6600.00 (First profit zone – trail or take gains!)
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER’S MASTER PLAN:
"We don’t ask for permission – we take profits."
🔹 ENTRY TACTICS:
Use multiple limit orders (LAYERED STRATEGY) – like planting timed explosives at key levels.
No panic entries – thieves strike with precision, not emotion.
DCA if needed – but keep bullets for the real move.
🔹 STOP LOSS RULES:
6400 = Danger Zone – if price breaks, abort mission & regroup.
SL too tight? You’ll get stopped out by market noise. SL too wide? You’ll bleed. Find balance.
🔹 TAKE PROFIT STRATEGY:
First TP @ 6600 – secure partial profits.
Let runners ride with trailing stop – or full exit if momentum fades.
🚨 THIEF’S GOLDEN RULES:
✅ Only LONG – no revenge shorts, no greed traps.
✅ Trade in SILENCE – avoid high-impact news (CPI, NFP, Fed).
✅ Risk management = Survival – don’t blow your account on one play.
✅ BOOST & SHARE – if this plan helps, spread the word!
📢 FINAL WARNING:
"This is not financial advice – it’s a thief’s blueprint.
Plan your escape before entry. Market heists require discipline."
💬 COMMENT "ROBBING SPX" if you’re in!
🔥 LIKE & BOOST if you ride with the Thief Trader crew!
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER OUT.
💸 STEAL SMART. GET RICH. REPEAT.
sp500 4hTrading Outlooks for the Week Ahead
In this series of analyses, we review short-term trading outlooks and perspectives.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or breakout from these levels will determine the next price movement toward the specified targets.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight critical price levels ahead and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Crack-Up BOOM and BUSTHey everyone, Wave-Tech here. Join me on a historic journey as I reconstruct the Grand Super Cycle while diving into the historic and captivating world of Elliott Wave Theory!
 This was to have been my maiden video cast—it didn't turn out as well as I hoped. Time got away from me, and the video ended abruptly before I could finish.
Rather than redoing it, I decided to keep the first and most authentic take intact for better or worse.
I made it private so that I could review it before publishing; however, I let too much time pass and was unable to change the setting back to public from private . 
You can view the private video  HERE :
The accompanying text is beneath the chart below:
In the simplest terms, Elliott Wave Theory is a measure of market psychology and sentiment coupled with Fibonnaci ratios designed to create a structural framework for determining at what stage of advance or decline a given market is in.
The basic premise for inherent advance and progress is three steps forward (impulse waves 1, 3, and 5) and two steps back (corrective waves 2 and 4).
According to Elliott, there are 9 degrees of trend, all of which are fractal in nature. The largest is the Grand Super Cycle, and the smallest is the Sub-Minuette.
Today, we’re exploring a yearly bar chart of the S&P, which covers trends at the Super Cycle and Cycle degree, revealing the pending culmination of a Grand Super Cycle—a colossal trend spanning centuries.
Buckle up as we unravel the rhythms of the stock market's epic ride!
 The SUPER CYCLE: 
Let’s start with the big picture: five waves of advance at the Super Cycle degree.
According to Ralph Nelson Elliott, with the sole exception of the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, the Super Cycle is the largest of all trends, a monumental set of impulsive and corrective waves that will set the tone and punctuate Grand Super Cycle terminals for Centuries to come—or at least through the fall of Empires or Civilizations.
Each of these waves tells a story of growth, correction, and renewal. The current Grand Super Cycle has been shaping markets and Nations for over a century. We can see this Grand Super Cycle unfolding in waves of Super Cycle dimension.
 WAVE COUNTS: 
The chart highlights five waves at Super Cycle degree: the first lasted 52 years with a gain of more than 1000%, the third stretched 68 years with a staggering 33,336% gain, and the fourth, a shorter 9-year span, saw a -57.06% loss, which marked the GFC low in 2009.
We are currently in the fifth Super Cycle wave, which is still unfolding and could mark the end of this Grand Super Cycle at any moment.
In contrast, the post-GFC "everything bubble" Crack-Up BOOM can persist to the upper trend channel boundaries noted near 18k and 35k.
Zooming in, we encounter the fractal Cycle degree waves comprising Super Cycle (III). Take Cycle Wave III and Cycle V, both 26 years long, delivering gains of 1,191% and 2,313% respectively.
And from the Super Cycle wave (IV) low in 2009, we are 16 years into Super Cycle Wave V, with an impressive 872% gain as of September 5, 2025.
This current wave could easily extend further, but its length is sufficient to suggest we may be nearing a pivotal turning point that might end the Grand Super Cycle with a sufficient black swan trigger.
 The Fourth Turning: 
Now, let’s touch briefly on the 85-year cycle, a rhythm that syncs beautifully with the concept of the "fourth turning"—a period of crisis and transformation.
The last one kicked off in 1945, post-World War II, ushering in the rules-based order that America and the West thrived in—an order that is arguably destined to end by 2030 if it hasn't already. This turning cycle hints at a historic shift on the horizon, or one that is currently already underway.
 THE RSI: 
Glance at the lower pane of the chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tale of caution. Since 1955, we’ve endured 16 long years of multiple bearish divergences—times when the market’s price and momentum didn’t align, signaling trouble ahead.
I like to call this the bearish divergences that cried wolf for nearly a generation! Note that it wasn't until the RSI closed beneath the mid-line that the sell-off into the 1974 low registered an oversold reading.
We saw the RSI fail again upon the new highs in 1993-94 following the highs in 1987.
1995 kicked off the infamous five years of irrational exuberance, which led to the tech bubble peak and subsequent crash into the 2002 low.
Not to be outdone by the 2000 blow-off top, the 2002 low ushered in yet another five years of irrational exuberance, culminating right in time for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This time, the RSI finally got it right on the first go round.
Currently, against the highs printed in 2021, the V-shaped snap-back rally following the mini bear market of 2022, the move to new highs in 2024 has flagged a bona fide bearish divergence. It will be interesting to see how the RSI looks after the close of 2025.
These divergences are like red flags, whispering that the party might not last forever, even though it may.
 Price Targets: 
So, where might this Super Cycle Wave V take us in terms of price? Let’s apply a Fibonacci projection—specifically, where Wave V equals 4.236 of Wave IV.
Doing the math, from the Wave IV base at 666.79, we’re looking at a target of around 7,226-7,233 on the S&P 500.
That’s only about 10% upside from recent highs—not quite the blow-off top of 18K or 35K, but a target to approach with eyes wide open.
 Now, let’s consider a sobering scenario: 
If Super Cycle Wave V ends here, or north of 7K, signaling the close of Grand Super Cycle ONE, history might repeat itself with a bear market akin to 1929’s four-year plunge.
An 86% decline could drop the S&P to around 917—still well above the Wave IV low of 666.79, another common target, but a stark reminder of the cycles’ power.
 In Closing: 
Thank you all for listening and reading if you've gotten this far. This was my first video. I got blindsided and cut off by the time constraint, so I apologize for the abrupt ending.
The market’s cycles and waves are a dance of numbers and human spirit, and we’ve only scratched the surface of their grandeur and implications.
Stay curious, stay informed, and keep your life vests on while riding these waves, okay!
SPX500USD could go higherHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD played out exactly as predicted in my previous outlook. Right at the open it started the upmove and it continued the whole week making a new ATH.
Next week we could see this pair going up some more.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave






















