SP 500 Trade setup on broad market weakness.SP 500 SP 500 Trade setup on broad market weakness. Stay hold below pre-market resistant. So ideally wait to see break down pre-market support. retrace and continue downside.Shortby southsiderealtrade1
Bounce from here?Normally don't use exponential moving averages but assuming the past holds true this might work. Granted, the interest rate/inflationary/political climate is much different now than in 2021 so price action may not act the same but all else held constant I think we could possibly bounce off this level.Longby The_GainsUpdated 6
ID: 006 - PM04.22.2024 Next trade executed. 304 DTE. This trade is something that has back tested remarkably well and is ready for first live deployment. Trade construct is a balanced butterfly structure with synthetic longs. A synthetic long using options consists of selling a deep ITM put, and simultaneously buying a far OTM call at the same strike. Short Strikes for the butterfly are at 4500, which is almost 15% lower than previous high in SPX of 5264.85. Happy Trading All! -kevinby Kevins1
$SPX500 2024 Guess for the Year $SPYHere are the actual #'s for you to see the 2024 Wall Street analysts forecasts on the chart. Once those are charted in the black rectangles at the year-end price targets, we can see where there are concentrations of estimates and where investors might pause and sell as the target has been reached for the year. And then I added in the 9% and 10% green lines to indicate the common average annual compound return of the stock market (excludes dividends). I could imagine there will be multiple rejections of the cluster where people want to "lighten up at the target" into the election in November. I plotted three pullbacks from the resistance area and then once the doubt is no longer hanging over the market, it can rally and the money chases into stocks. Election years have often been sideways grind and this year seems like more of the same. The media headlines are negative and investors are scared of a recession and another banking crisis. Inflation is always a fear and the Fed has hiked 500 basis points and although their language has shifted from "higher for longer" over to "easing ahead possibly three rate cuts in 2024" to paraphrase Jerome Powell at the Fed. The stock market is unchanged after two years and many investors are shell-shocked from the bear market in 2022 and trying to fend off the lure of T-Bills and money market funds with their juicy 4%-5% yields which are the highest they have been in years. Take a look at my interest rate "guess" from last year when rates were near peak to show you what I was thinking back then (hint: topping, down to sideways. See link below). This is my annual fun 'guess' which has been something I have done for about the last 10 years and with some luck it has at least acknowledged the big factors in the market and even if I am dead wrong I took a shot at it and welcome questions and comments. Cheers to a healthy 2024 for everyone. Tim Jan 11, 2024 10:00AM ESTEditors' picksLongby timwestUpdated 4747 1.1K
$SPX over perform NQ | Shift towards valueBeen tracking this one for weeks now as we've formed a bottom and reclaimed support. We think across markets, we're seeing a macro shift away from speculative tech and towards value. TVC:SXXP (European SPX) could be forming a bottom vs SPX as well. What this over performance could look like remains to be seen. Could be more defensive in a downward move or if we catch support, it could be over performance to the upside. Regardless, the real message here is the shift away from US tech for the foreseeable future. Finally breaking through to bull side RSI on the weekly and AO flipping bullish. not touching NQ for a good while. Something to note is the original support bottom on this chart was the Nov '21 top across markets and Jan '23 was market bottom. by drcrypto140
SPX500 looks oversold at current levelsThe daily SPX500 looks oversold at current levels. This may cue the short-term trades to position themselves bullishly as the daily RSI normalizes. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.Long03:03by FXCM2
S&P Downtrend IntensifiesThe downward trend for the S&P is picking up speed. We'd like to emphasize the significance of the resistance line we mentioned a few weeks ago. We cautioned about the combination of this resistance line and the divergence of the daily RSI, signalling potential trouble for the market. As anticipated, the market has indeed sold off. Initial support rests at the 2022 high of 4809. However, we believe the downward movement is already underway. It would not be surprising to see the market sell-off to the 50% retracement level of the October 2023 low to the recent high, around 4689, especially considering its alignment with the 200-day moving average at 4674. In the near term, any upward movements are likely to encounter resistance. The 55-day moving average, currently at 5103, will pose initial resistance, keeping the market under pressure below this level. Shortby The_STA1
SPX: correction might continueDuring the previous week markets witnessed that Nvidia can dip in value. The relaxation period of continued moves to the upside came to the reality check. Combination of the Middle East crisis and mostly expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates anytime soon, pushed the US equities toward the downside. The S&P 500 slipped below the 5.000 level and was mostly traded with a negative track during the whole previous week. Almost all industries have lost in value. Netflix was down by 9%, while chip stocks also ended the week under pressure. The current question is if investors are slowly waiving out from the AI frenzy? Regardless of the developments during the previous week, it was inevitable that the market would sometimes enter into short corrections after unprecedented moves toward the upside. A negative market mood could continue for another week, or at least until the forthcoming FOMC meeting, where the Fed`s views on current macro data will be more clearer. At this moment, the majority of investors perceive the first rate cut in September this year, but it is still under a question. by XBTFX8
Portfolio Beta Hedging Ahead of Super Seven EarningsYou cannot predict the future. But you can prepare for it. Mega cap tech stocks have collectively lost USD 930 billion in value since Nasdaq 100 peaked on 21st March 2024. Will Super Sevens earnings turn the tide? Starting this week, the Super Sevens will start announcing first quarter results. NASDAQ:TSLA is up first on 23/Apr (Tue) followed by NASDAQ:META on 24/Apr (Wed) with NASDAQ:GOOGL and NASDAQ:MSFT on 25/Apr (Thu). NASDAQ:AAPL reports on 2/May followed by NASDAQ:NVDA on 22/May. Broad US equity markets are facing multiple headwinds. Rate cut hopes are fading. Geopolitics are turning for the worse with tensions escalating in the middle east. Investor sentiments are gloomy. Consequently, both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have endured their worst week in a long time. Investors are pinning hopes on AI-infused tech earnings to stem the downdraft and to turn the tide. Bloomberg reports that Super Seven earnings are forecast to rise 38% during Q1 2024 compared to a year ago. If true, those earnings would dwarf the overall S&P 500’s meagre +2.4% forecasted YoY earnings growth. This paper is set in two parts. Part 1 summarises idiosyncratic factors affecting each of the Super Sevens. Second part of the paper illustrates beta hedging using index options to help portfolio managers defend against downside risk while retaining upside potential. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. EXCITEMENT TO EXHAUSTION? AI hype remains palpable. But monetising AI is hard. That is becoming increasingly clear. Even among the Super Sevens, not everyone has cracked the AI monetisation formula. Investors are starting to moderate AI linked expectations. They need a clear path to profits from AI initiatives. Investor scepticism is showing up even among Super Sevens. NASDAQ:NVDA has been selling shovels to AI gold miners. Expectedly, their earnings and consequently their stock prices are up sharply. Its share prices are up 54% YTD leaving the rest in dust. NASDAQ:META is up 36%, compared +10% for NASDAQ:GOOGL and +6% for $NASDAQ:MSFT. NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:TSLA are increasingly losing shine. NASDAQ:TSLA (down a colossal 41%) risks being booted out of the Super Seven grouping. “Investors are expecting not just strong results — but strong guidance,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Any disappointment from the mega-tech names reporting could push this week’s oversold market deeper into oversold territory” as reported by Bloomberg. NASDAQ:AMZN is expected to deliver modest EPS growth. Analysts remain strongly bullish with 60 of 63 analysts giving a Strong Buy or Buy rating. Source: TradingView NASDAQ:GOOGL is facing justified scepticism by investors about its AI capabilities after multiple missteps. AI powered search engines potentially threatens Google’s dominance. Despite the headwinds, analysts remain bullish on NASDAQ:GOOGL with average 12-month price target offering an 8% upside. Source: TradingView Falling smartphone market share, slowdown in innovations, nothing to show for in AI, lacklustre demand for Vision Pro, closure of Apple Car project, Anti-trust fines and more. Adverse news is hammering NASDAQ:AAPL share prices non-stop. While overall analyst rating remains bullish, the number of hold and sell calls are rising fast for NASDAQ:AAPL . Source: TradingView Bloomberg reports that NASDAQ:META is expected to show revenue growth of 26% this quarter and almost double the net earnings from a year ago. Analysts remain very bullish on NASDAQ:META with an average 12-month price target of USD 540.90 a share. Source: TradingView NASDAQ:MSFT is expected to benefit from AI. It has cleverly implemented Copilot AI into its product suite. Last quarter, demand for AI fuelled growth in its Azure cloud-services business. Analysts remain constructively bullish on NASDAQ:MSFT with 54 out of 57 analysts holding a Strong Buy or Buy rating on the stock. Source: TradingView NASDAQ:NVDA will be the most watched quarterly earnings yet again. Its stock is priced to perfection. Feeble earnings or guidance could send its share prices into a free fall. Fifty-three of Sixty analysts have either a Strong Buy or a Buy rating on NASDAQ:NVDA with average 30% upside over next 12-months. Source: TradingView EV market contraction. Price wars from Chinese EV makers. Deep discounts. All these are heavily weighing down on NASDAQ:TSLA shares. Not unexpectedly, analysts remain neutral on NASDAQ:TSLA . Source: TradingView ILLUSTRATING BETA HEDGING USING INDEX OPTIONS Super Seven earnings are critical to US equities given their outsized impact due to substantial index weightings. Valuations remain lofty. Despite the recent selloff, these mega caps trade at an aggregate thirty-one times forward earnings. Earnings can and does have enormous impact on share prices. When valuations are priced to perfection, even a hint of negative news will plummet stock prices down. Astute portfolio managers defend their portfolio using beta hedging. Beta hedge requires that notional of the hedging trade is equivalent to the beta-adjusted notional value of single stocks. Illustration of the beta hedge below assumes that a portfolio manager holds thirty shares in each of the Super Sevens. TradingView publishes trailing twelve month beta values for each firm which is the stock’s sensitivity to the S&P 500 index. In the lead up to results, implied volatility on shares expands rapidly. While hedging using equity put options is an alternative, but it is an expensive one. A portfolio manager can cleverly deploy short-dated equity index options to minimise hedging costs. CME offers Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options (“Micro S&P500 Options”) with each contract providing a notional coverage of USD 5 times the S&P 500 index which translates to USD 25,000 per lot based on current S&P 500 levels of 4,967.23. Using Micro S&P500 put options expiring on 25th April 2024 at a strike of 4950, a portfolio manager incurs a premium of USD 105 per lot based on close of market prices on 19th April 2024. It requires approximately 4 lots (USD 25,000 per lot times 4 lots = USD 100,000) notional of put options to hedge the above beta adjusted portfolio of USD 107,153. Source: CME Table below illustrates hedging pay-off under different price action scenarios during quarterly earnings: Long Options delivers financial convexity. Options allow portfolio managers to harvest asymmetric gains. It provides protection when markets plunge and allows portfolio managers to capture gains from rising markets. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.Editors' picksEducationby mintdotfinance66326
S&P 500 set to advance after a bout of selling on FridayEfforts are underway to head off a full-blown Middle East war. What’s Happening Now: A tense calm prevailed in the Middle East after Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel. Global markets showed signs of stability on speculation the conflict will remain contained. Iran said there wouldn’t be further attacks as long as Israel didn’t react aggressively, but Benjamin Netanyahu warned, “Whoever strikes Israel, we will strike him.” A diplomatic race is underway to help ensure any retaliation doesn’t raise the stakes too high. “It’s right to price more geopolitical risk premia into assets, but at the end of the day equity markets are still only about 2% off all-time highs,” said Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street. “This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical development. A lot of the bad news is in the price already.” As we can see on the chart, the index is still trading in the tight diagonal canal which once broken a higher liquidity impulse can be expected. With the current situation of repricing rate cuts, higher inflation, and war tensions rising I am strongly expecting a quick 3-7% test to the previous lows.Shortby Elite_ForexUpdated 1
SPX APRIL 2024 WEEK 4 OUTLOOK - Daily - looks bearish, in need of a small consolidation or pullback. we are near a key area on daily i.e.** 4947.66 - 4980.52** if price holds above this level, we can observe another leg up from here (low probability). if not, then we can expect a small consolidation and then another dump on SPX this week. Origin - bearish. SPX looks bearish here too. but there are a few zones above and below that might lead to a bit of back and forth on SPX this week. by Osiris9921
us30 trade idea update4/12/2024 we are 10mins away from the 4HR candle closer that I posted about let's see how this turns out. Longby TommyJayPMD1
SPX: Has the primary degree wave 4 started?My thesis for market cycle top is that SPX is creating a massive ending diagonal since the Covid bottom in 2020. The March 2024 top of 5264.85 has reached the 0.5 fib extension, not exactly the 0.618 extension that I was hoping for. But the EW rules are still intact and the strong downward movement might be signaling that the local top is in. Now the rule for contracting ending diagonal is that Wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 and wave 4 must be shorter than wave 2. And most often than not, wave 4 will go inside the wave 1 territory. In that sense, price is likely to breach 4819, but cannot breach below 3824. Time should also be sooner than 280 days that took during wave 2 correction. At this moment I am predicting price might come down to 4500 by September. If, price bounces from this area and make another high, then this analysis changes. In that case, we have only seen wave 1 and 2 of wave C and the rally should extend quite a bit and still be a contracting diagonal until it breaches 7680. Right now leaning towards primary 4 correction and eventually market to top out between 6000 to 6300 by 2026, depending on where wave 4 completes.by mukit1223
Is SPX more likely to up than down tomorrow!Hourly and daily trend is still down. Market closed 7 days in red in a row. SPX closed again below 50 DMA. Support is near around 4950 and 5009 is the resistance and swing highs is 5040. Therefore, there are more chance for market have some relief rally tomorrow.by Gurmeet2
SPX bounce then sell down to prior ATH in late MayFairly self-explanatory here. SPX should bounce, then see another pullback in the first 3 weeks of May. If we break and hold below 4945 in April then there is a chance for accelerated selling and I will need to reassess. Let's see how this path tracks.Longby Brukks334
$SPX $SPX500USDSummary #SPX is approaching a key level where it may make a decision to bounce or break lower. A zone ranging between 4800 : 4920 "highlighted" will determine the upcoming short term trend. by AhmedMesbah3
ABC corective wave for SPXUS stock indexes are falling off of their all-time highs which has seen the S&P fall below the 50-day MA support level at $5,125. A failed move back above the 50-day MA at $5,120 will see the index fall lower onto the 38.2% Fibo rate of $4,820. Shortby Goose960
SP500 Current CFD Market Outlook | Analyzing Trends and ForecastWelcome to our latest analysis of the S&P 500 index! In this video, we delve into the current market conditions, dissecting key trends and providing insights to help you navigate the ever-changing landscape of stock market trading. Join us as we analyze recent price action, identifying critical support and resistance levels that are shaping the S&P 500's trajectory. From fundamental factors such as economic data releases and corporate earnings to technical analysis tools like moving averages and trendlines, we leave no stone unturned in our quest to provide you with a comprehensive market outlook. Whether you're an experienced trader or new to stock market investing, this video offers valuable insights into the S&P 500 index. Stay ahead of the curve with our expert analysis and stay tuned until the end for actionable strategies on how to capitalize on potential market opportunities. Don't miss out on this essential guide to the S&P 500 market – hit the play button now and empower yourself with the knowledge needed to succeed in stock trading. Be sure to like, share, and subscribe for more updates on stock indices and financial markets!Short00:56by Josebill0
A little bit lower for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD did exactly what I've said in my outlook. After a correction up to rebalance into the FVG it made another drop. For next week this pair could go a little lower into the HTF FVG but I think the correction down is almost finished. Trade idea: Don't trade at the moment. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! EduwaveShortby EduwaveTrading2
S&P To Stay Rangebound Next WeekComing into the penultimate April trading week, we ended the last week with a massive drop in NVIDIA. Overall, stocks were not really a happy place last week. Kinda depressing. Anyway, we got a lot of expectations of a bounce, continuation of the move, etc...Given the dearth of information with the FED blackout, lack of economic data releases besides BOJ and PCE at the end of the week, S&P will be rangebound from 4930-5050 this week. We will be trading on this information.by RedridgeCapital0
SPX500 Waiting For Buy SetupThe monthly timeframe appears to be bullish, while the weekly timeframe is showing bullish signals as well. However, the daily support has been broken at 5170.9 and the price is currently heading towards the weekly support at 4701.6. Despite this, the higher timeframes still seem to be bullish and it is likely that this is just a retracement. At the moment, the market is overbought. I remain bullish and plan to wait for a buy setup on the H4 timeframe.Longby Obreezy50
Buckle Up, Bulls? S&P 500 Chart Hints at a Shaky RideRising Wedge Pattern Breakdown in Focus This analysis examines the S&P 500 daily chart, focusing on a potential trend reversal signaled by a rising wedge pattern breakout. Pattern Recognition: A rising wedge pattern has been developing on the S&P 500 daily chart since October 2023. This pattern is characterized by price movements confined within a trend channel with rising upper and lower trendlines. Breakout and Target: A recent price drop suggests a possible breakdown from the rising wedge pattern, indicating a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. The breakdown projects a target level of 4400 for the S&P 500. Gap as Potential Support: Interestingly, the target level of 4400 coincides with a gap on the chart. Gaps represent areas where trading activity was absent, and they can sometimes act as support or resistance levels. In this case, the gap at 4400 could potentially provide support if the price falls to that level. Need for Confirmation and Additional Considerations While the breakdown from the rising wedge suggests a potential downtrend, it's important to acknowledge the need for confirmation. This could come from: Increased selling volume accompanying the price decline. Signals from other technical indicators that reinforce the bearish outlook. False breakouts from wedges can also occur, where the price dips below the support line but then reverses course and moves back up. It's crucial to consider the broader market context and economic factors that might influence the S&P 500's overall direction. Conclusion The S&P 500 daily chart displays a potential bearish scenario based on the breakdown of a rising wedge pattern and a target level of 4400. However, confirmation signals, the possibility of false breakouts, and the overall market sentiment require careful consideration before reaching any definitive conclusions. Further Steps Monitor price action around the 4400 level and the rising wedge's support line. Look for confirmation of a downtrend through increased selling volume or other technical indicators. Consider broader market factors that might impact the S&P 500's direction. by ParabolicP3
S&P 500 S&P 500 is pull back because now it goes so high . S&P 500 need Pull back before it go higher. I may go down until the Demand Zone because that Position is he same With High and low . EMA 200 is Up Trend S&P 500 Will Up Again.Shortby kimhou0961