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US500 (S&P500) Projection📊 US500 (S&P500) Forecast | Intraday & Swing Outlook 🚀📉 Asset Class: US500 CFD (SPX, SPY, S&P500) Current Closing Price: 6,661.8 (20th Sept 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) 🔎 Market Overview The S&P500 remains highly volatile as it consolidates near all-time highs. Both bullish continuation and reversal traps are emerging. We integrate Elliott Wave 🌊, Ichimoku ☁️, Gann 🔺, and VWAP 📏 tools to frame trade setups. ⚡ Intraday Technical Levels Immediate Support: 6,635 – 6,610 🟢 Key Resistance: 6,690 – 6,725 🔴 VWAP Zones: Anchored support at 6,628 📏 RSI: Neutral (52) → room to swing both sides 📈📉 🎯 Intraday Trade Ideas Buy (Scalp): 6,620 – 6,635 🛒 Target: 6,670 → 6,690 🚀 Stop Loss: Below 6,600 ❌ Sell (Scalp): 6,690 – 6,710 🛑 Target: 6,645 → 6,625 📉 Stop Loss: Above 6,730 ❌ ⏳ Swing Trading Outlook Swing Support: 6,580 – 6,520 📉 Major Resistance: 6,750 – 6,820 🚀 Ichimoku Cloud: Bullish bias (daily/weekly) ☁️ Wave Count: Elliott suggests Wave 4 consolidation before Wave 5 breakout 🌊 🎯 Swing Trade Ideas Buy (Swing): 6,580 – 6,600 🛒 Target: 6,720 → 6,800 🚀 Stop Loss: 6,520 ❌ Sell (Swing): 6,750 – 6,820 🛑 Target: 6,640 → 6,600 📉 Stop Loss: 6,860 ❌ 📐 Pattern Watchlist ⚠️ Potential Bull Trap: Above 6,725 – rejection zone ⚠️ Head & Shoulders risk: Breakdown below 6,580 📏 Gann Levels: Time cycle indicates critical reversal window next week ☁️ Ichimoku Twist: Signals momentum shift by month-end 📌 Strategy Recap 🎯 Intraday Bias: Range trade → watch VWAP flips 📊 📈 Swing Bias: Bullish above 6,600, bearish below 6,580 🔑 ⏳ Patience Key: Avoid chasing breakouts without volume confirmation 📉📊 🧭 Conclusion The US500 (S&P500) is at a make-or-break zone. ✅ Buy dips near 6,600 ❌ Sell rallies into 6,750 – 6,820 🔮 Expect volatility as macro events drive direction 📊 Stay disciplined, trade the levels, and adapt quickly 🚀📉 For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 📝 TRADING CHECKLIST Before entering any position: - ✅ Confirm volume supports move - ✅ Check RSI for divergences - ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment - ✅ Set stop loss before entry - ✅ Calculate position size - ✅ Review correlation with DXY/SPX/US30 - ✅ Check economic calendar - ✅ Assess market sentiment ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by sunya
SPX500 Holds Below 6,590 Pivot – Key Breakout Levels AheadSPX500 – Overview The S&P 500 is showing bullish momentum but remains sensitive to the 6,590 pivot for confirmation of the next move. 📉 Bearish scenario: As long as price trades below 6,590, momentum favors a drop toward 6,571. A confirmed break under 6,571 would open the way to 6,550 → 6,527. 📈 Bullish scenario: A 1H close above 6,590 would shift bias bullish, targeting 6,604 → 6,631. Key Level Pivot: 6,590 Resistance: 6,604 – 6,631 Support: 6,571 – 6,550 – 6,527
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Applying the Nx BIAS indicator to US500After my latest thread about the 🛡️ Nx BIAS 🛡️ indicator for determining market bias, I decided to take a scalp trade as a backtesting exercise on the US500 pair. Entry details: Defined the DOL and Invalidation levels using the Nx Bias indicator on the 2Htimeframe. Identified the area of interest and executed the entry on the 5m - 1m timeframe for the same pair. Next steps and forward testing: I will be testing this indicator more extensively. The main goal is to rely solely on it for bias determination under live market conditions to evaluate its real-time performance, moving beyond backtesting results. Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research (DYOR). Best regards, Note: The indicator is not yet available and will be released soon under the name Nx Candle Bias.
TICKMILL:US500Short
by mohx_404
Stock market pullback aheadIt’s an incredible time for retail investors: the market is pumping non-stop, and it seems like it could continue indefinitely. However, the charts are signaling a different scenario as we approach October. MACD is at the top of its range RSI is at the top of its range Stochastic is at the top of its range While liquidity remains high and rate cuts appear increasingly likely, history shows that when these indicators reach such extremes on the 1-week timeframe, a market correction often occurs. This reset can pave the way for further growth. In short, we may see a correction, sideways movement, or a pause, most likely starting in October. Anything is possible, but the charts don’t lie—even if sentiment can be misleading. Monitor the situation closely: a market correction can also be a great opportunity to buy at lower prices. DYOR.
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoNikkoid
Of course. Here is the English translation of the analysis for tOf course. Here is the English translation of the analysis for the US500 (S&P 500 index): The US500 (S&P 500 Index) is the most authoritative benchmark for gauging the overall health of large-cap U.S. stocks. Covering 11 major sectors, its diversified nature makes it a "barometer" of the U.S. economy. The index is currently trading at all-time highs, driven by a combination of market expectations for Fed rate cuts and the resilience of corporate earnings. It is extremely sensitive to monetary policy; any surprises in inflation (CPI/PCE) or employment data can reshape the interest rate path and trigger a market repricing. Sector rotation within the index is a key focal point. While the leadership of tech giants remains the main engine for gains, the performance of cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and industrials is crucial for market breadth and sustainability, signaling confidence in an economic "soft landing." From a technical standpoint, the 5,300 area has become a new battleground for bulls and bears. If constituent earnings continue to exceed expectations, the index could consolidate its upward momentum; conversely, it faces pullback pressure in a high-valuation environment. Looking ahead, the direction of the US500 will be a tug-of-war between "AI-driven earnings growth" and "higher-for-longer interest rates." Investors should pay balanced attention to mega-cap earnings and broad economic data to assess whether the momentum can broaden. Short-term volatility is inevitable, while the long-term trend remains anchored on whether the U.S. economy can avoid a recession.
TVC:SPX
by trade1638
Sea Routes & Supply Chains1. The Historical Foundation of Sea Routes 1.1 Ancient Maritime Trade Maritime trade is as old as civilization itself. The Phoenicians of the Mediterranean (around 1500 BCE) mastered navigation and spread commerce across North Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Europe. The Silk Road by sea connected China, India, Arabia, and Africa, long before modern globalization. Spices, silk, and precious stones moved across oceans, shaping cultures and economies. In South Asia, the Indian Ocean trade system linked ports from East Africa to Southeast Asia. Seasonal monsoon winds powered dhows and junks carrying pepper, gold, and textiles. 1.2 Age of Exploration and Colonization The 15th and 16th centuries marked a turning point. European powers—Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, and later Britain—sought new sea routes to bypass land-based trade monopolies. Vasco da Gama’s voyage to India (1498) opened Europe to Asian spices. Columbus’s Atlantic crossing linked Europe with the Americas. Britain’s mastery of naval power allowed it to dominate maritime routes, turning sea trade into imperial control. Sea routes became instruments of wealth and power, laying the groundwork for today’s globalized supply chains. 2. Sea Routes: The Arteries of Modern Trade 2.1 Major Maritime Routes Modern maritime trade relies on established routes shaped by geography and economics. The Suez Canal Route: Connecting Europe and Asia via the Mediterranean and Red Sea. It shortens the Europe-Asia journey by nearly 7,000 km compared to circumnavigating Africa. The Strait of Hormuz: A narrow chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. The Strait of Malacca: Linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, this is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. The Panama Canal: Vital for connecting the Atlantic and Pacific, especially for trade between the Americas and Asia. The Trans-Pacific Route: Connecting East Asian manufacturing hubs (China, Japan, South Korea) with North American markets. The Trans-Atlantic Route: Linking Europe and North America, critical for goods, energy, and raw materials. 2.2 Strategic Chokepoints These routes rely on chokepoints, narrow maritime passages that, if disrupted, can cripple trade. The Strait of Hormuz, Malacca, and Bab el-Mandeb are classic examples. Piracy, blockades, or accidents in these areas can trigger global economic shockwaves—as seen when the Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal in 2021. 2.3 Cargo Diversity Sea routes transport a staggering variety of goods: Bulk commodities: oil, coal, iron ore, grains. Containerized goods: electronics, apparel, machinery. Liquefied gases: LNG and LPG. Specialized cargo: cars, chemicals, refrigerated food (reefer containers). The efficiency of sea routes lies in their ability to handle massive volumes cheaply compared to air or land transport. 3. Supply Chains: The Skeleton Behind Sea Routes 3.1 What Is a Supply Chain? A supply chain is the entire process of sourcing, manufacturing, and delivering goods. It includes suppliers, factories, warehouses, transport hubs, shipping lines, and retailers. Sea routes act as international connectors within this chain. 3.2 Globalization and the Rise of Complex Supply Chains From the late 20th century, businesses adopted “just-in-time” production to minimize inventory and reduce costs. Manufacturers sourced parts globally, relying on efficient shipping. For example: A smartphone may have components from South Korea, semiconductors from Taiwan, assembly in China, and final sales in the U.S. Automakers source steel from Brazil, engines from Germany, and wiring harnesses from Mexico. Sea routes enable this complex web, making supply chains international in scope. 3.3 Containerization Revolution The introduction of the shipping container in the 1950s revolutionized logistics. Standardized containers allowed goods to move seamlessly between ships, trains, and trucks. This reduced theft, increased efficiency, and lowered shipping costs dramatically. Today, mega-container ships can carry over 20,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units), making sea transport the backbone of global supply chains. 4. Geopolitics of Sea Routes and Supply Chains 4.1 Naval Power and Trade Control Sea routes are not just commercial pathways but also strategic assets. Countries with strong navies—like the U.S., China, and historically Britain—use maritime dominance to secure trade. Control over chokepoints gives nations leverage in global politics. 4.2 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) China’s Maritime Silk Road, part of the BRI, seeks to expand its influence by investing in ports and shipping infrastructure worldwide. From Gwadar in Pakistan to Piraeus in Greece, China is reshaping maritime geopolitics. 4.3 Trade Wars and Supply Chain Shifts U.S.–China tensions have exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains. Companies are “China+1” strategies, diversifying manufacturing to Vietnam, India, or Mexico. Yet, all these shifts still depend on sea routes for global distribution. 4.4 Vulnerability to Conflict Conflicts in Ukraine, the South China Sea, or the Middle East can disrupt supply chains. Sanctions and blockades weaponize trade routes, showing how economic security is intertwined with geopolitics. 5. Challenges Facing Sea Routes and Supply Chains 5.1 Disruptions Pandemics: COVID-19 exposed supply chain fragility when ports shut down, containers piled up, and shipping costs soared. Piracy: Particularly in the Gulf of Aden and parts of Southeast Asia. Climate Change: Rising sea levels, stronger storms, and melting Arctic ice are reshaping routes. 5.2 Environmental Concerns Shipping contributes about 3% of global CO₂ emissions. Heavy fuel oil pollutes air and oceans, prompting stricter environmental regulations. The push for green shipping—using LNG, hydrogen, or wind-assisted propulsion—is gaining momentum. 5.3 Infrastructure Strain Mega-ships require deeper ports and better logistics hubs. Not all regions can afford the infrastructure, creating bottlenecks in global trade. 6. The Future of Sea Routes and Supply Chains 6.1 Technological Transformation Digitalization: Blockchain and AI are streamlining documentation and tracking shipments. Autonomous Ships: Trials are underway for crewless vessels that reduce costs and risks. Smart Ports: Automated cranes and AI-driven logistics increase efficiency. 6.2 Arctic Sea Routes As ice melts, the Northern Sea Route along Russia and the Northwest Passage through Canada are becoming viable. These routes cut travel time between Asia and Europe but raise environmental and sovereignty concerns. 6.3 Regionalization vs. Globalization Some argue the world is moving towards regional supply chains due to geopolitical tensions and resilience concerns. For instance, the EU encourages near-shoring manufacturing, while the U.S. promotes domestic chip production. However, sea routes will remain indispensable for intercontinental trade. 6.4 Resilient Supply Chains Companies are rethinking strategies: Building redundancy (multiple suppliers). Increasing stockpiles of critical goods (semiconductors, medicines). Investing in predictive analytics for disruptions. Conclusion Sea routes and supply chains truly are the hidden arteries of the global economy. From the spice traders of antiquity to the container ships of today, oceans have been the lifeblood of commerce and civilization. They connect continents, fuel industries, and ensure the smooth functioning of daily life. Yet, they remain vulnerable to geopolitical rivalries, environmental pressures, and technological disruptions. As the world faces climate change, rising protectionism, and shifting power balances, the future of sea routes and supply chains will demand innovation, resilience, and cooperation. They may be invisible to the average consumer, but every time someone picks up a smartphone, drinks coffee, or fills their car with fuel, they are directly benefiting from the silent yet powerful arteries that keep the global economy alive.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
US500 Remains in Bullish Trend. US500 remains in an overall bullish trend, recently reaching new record highs above 6,600, but market momentum is beginning to moderate as valuations stretch and profit-taking increases. Fundamental Price Action Drivers The main drivers are Fed rate cut optimism, strong earnings from big tech, and resilient consumer spending. These factors underpin risk appetite and support the rally. Weak labor market and softer economic data are leading to expectations for ongoing monetary easing, keeping equities attractive despite elevated risks. Rotation across sectors is visible, with technology and communication services acting as leaders while defensives and industrials lag. Corporate earnings resilience and prospects of a "soft landing" continue to draw in buyers, but recent macro headwinds inflation, China trade are sparking caution and some volatility. Technical Analysis The index shows overbought technical signals, so any miss on earnings or hawkish surprise from the Fed could rapidly fuel a correction back to 6,490 or even 6,400. While upward price targets 6,680 –6,725 remain feasible, consolidation or shallow pullbacks are likely in the near-term. Maintaining above 6,500 support for trend continuation is important, a break below increases risk for deeper downside toward 6,400. Key Technical Levels Support Zones: 6,610 (major) & 6,555 (pivot), Resistance Zones: 6,680 & 6,725 (major target). Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by WiseLeoTrading
sp500 4hTrading Outlooks for the Week Ahead In this series of analyses, we review short-term trading outlooks and perspectives. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or breakout from these levels will determine the next price movement toward the specified targets. Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight critical price levels ahead and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
VANTAGE:SP500
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
Crack-Up BOOM and BUSTHey everyone, Wave-Tech here. Join me on a historic journey as I reconstruct the Grand Super Cycle while diving into the historic and captivating world of Elliott Wave Theory! This was to have been my maiden video cast—it didn't turn out as well as I hoped. Time got away from me, and the video ended abruptly before I could finish. Rather than redoing it, I decided to keep the first and most authentic take intact for better or worse. I made it private so that I could review it before publishing; however, I let too much time pass and was unable to change the setting back to public from private . You can view the private video HERE : The accompanying text is beneath the chart below: In the simplest terms, Elliott Wave Theory is a measure of market psychology and sentiment coupled with Fibonnaci ratios designed to create a structural framework for determining at what stage of advance or decline a given market is in. The basic premise for inherent advance and progress is three steps forward (impulse waves 1, 3, and 5) and two steps back (corrective waves 2 and 4). According to Elliott, there are 9 degrees of trend, all of which are fractal in nature. The largest is the Grand Super Cycle, and the smallest is the Sub-Minuette. Today, we’re exploring a yearly bar chart of the S&P, which covers trends at the Super Cycle and Cycle degree, revealing the pending culmination of a Grand Super Cycle—a colossal trend spanning centuries. Buckle up as we unravel the rhythms of the stock market's epic ride! The SUPER CYCLE: Let’s start with the big picture: five waves of advance at the Super Cycle degree. According to Ralph Nelson Elliott, with the sole exception of the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, the Super Cycle is the largest of all trends, a monumental set of impulsive and corrective waves that will set the tone and punctuate Grand Super Cycle terminals for Centuries to come—or at least through the fall of Empires or Civilizations. Each of these waves tells a story of growth, correction, and renewal. The current Grand Super Cycle has been shaping markets and Nations for over a century. We can see this Grand Super Cycle unfolding in waves of Super Cycle dimension. WAVE COUNTS: The chart highlights five waves at Super Cycle degree: the first lasted 52 years with a gain of more than 1000%, the third stretched 68 years with a staggering 33,336% gain, and the fourth, a shorter 9-year span, saw a -57.06% loss, which marked the GFC low in 2009. We are currently in the fifth Super Cycle wave, which is still unfolding and could mark the end of this Grand Super Cycle at any moment. In contrast, the post-GFC "everything bubble" Crack-Up BOOM can persist to the upper trend channel boundaries noted near 18k and 35k. Zooming in, we encounter the fractal Cycle degree waves comprising Super Cycle (III). Take Cycle Wave III and Cycle V, both 26 years long, delivering gains of 1,191% and 2,313% respectively. And from the Super Cycle wave (IV) low in 2009, we are 16 years into Super Cycle Wave V, with an impressive 872% gain as of September 5, 2025. This current wave could easily extend further, but its length is sufficient to suggest we may be nearing a pivotal turning point that might end the Grand Super Cycle with a sufficient black swan trigger. The Fourth Turning: Now, let’s touch briefly on the 85-year cycle, a rhythm that syncs beautifully with the concept of the "fourth turning"—a period of crisis and transformation. The last one kicked off in 1945, post-World War II, ushering in the rules-based order that America and the West thrived in—an order that is arguably destined to end by 2030 if it hasn't already. This turning cycle hints at a historic shift on the horizon, or one that is currently already underway. THE RSI: Glance at the lower pane of the chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tale of caution. Since 1955, we’ve endured 16 long years of multiple bearish divergences—times when the market’s price and momentum didn’t align, signaling trouble ahead. I like to call this the bearish divergences that cried wolf for nearly a generation! Note that it wasn't until the RSI closed beneath the mid-line that the sell-off into the 1974 low registered an oversold reading. We saw the RSI fail again upon the new highs in 1993-94 following the highs in 1987. 1995 kicked off the infamous five years of irrational exuberance, which led to the tech bubble peak and subsequent crash into the 2002 low. Not to be outdone by the 2000 blow-off top, the 2002 low ushered in yet another five years of irrational exuberance, culminating right in time for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This time, the RSI finally got it right on the first go round. Currently, against the highs printed in 2021, the V-shaped snap-back rally following the mini bear market of 2022, the move to new highs in 2024 has flagged a bona fide bearish divergence. It will be interesting to see how the RSI looks after the close of 2025. These divergences are like red flags, whispering that the party might not last forever, even though it may. Price Targets: So, where might this Super Cycle Wave V take us in terms of price? Let’s apply a Fibonacci projection—specifically, where Wave V equals 4.236 of Wave IV. Doing the math, from the Wave IV base at 666.79, we’re looking at a target of around 7,226-7,233 on the S&P 500. That’s only about 10% upside from recent highs—not quite the blow-off top of 18K or 35K, but a target to approach with eyes wide open. Now, let’s consider a sobering scenario: If Super Cycle Wave V ends here, or north of 7K, signaling the close of Grand Super Cycle ONE, history might repeat itself with a bear market akin to 1929’s four-year plunge. An 86% decline could drop the S&P to around 917—still well above the Wave IV low of 666.79, another common target, but a stark reminder of the cycles’ power. In Closing: Thank you all for listening and reading if you've gotten this far. This was my first video. I got blindsided and cut off by the time constraint, so I apologize for the abrupt ending. The market’s cycles and waves are a dance of numbers and human spirit, and we’ve only scratched the surface of their grandeur and implications. Stay curious, stay informed, and keep your life vests on while riding these waves, okay!
SP:SPX
by Wave-Tech
SPX500 H4 | Bullish continuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has reacted off the buy entry which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to the upside. Buy entry is at 6,535.17, which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 6,459.99, which is a pullback support. Take profit is at 6,589.58, which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
SPX500 Holds Below 6,590 Pivot After Hitting 6,600 TargetSPX500 – Overview The S&P 500 reached our 6,600 target following softer inflation data that reinforced Fed rate-cut expectations. Price is now stabilizing below the 6,590 pivot, signaling the potential for a near-term pullback. 📉 Bearish scenario: While trading below 6,590, momentum favors a drop toward 6,571. A confirmed break under this level could extend the decline to 6,550 → 6,527. 📈 Bullish scenario: A 1H close above 6,590 would shift bias bullish, opening the way toward 6,604 → 6,631. Key Levels Pivot: 6,590 Resistance: 6,604 – 6,631 Support: 6,571 – 6,550 – 6,527 Bias: Bearish while below 6,590; bullish breakout confirmed only on a 1H close above this pivot.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Secular & Cyclical Bull & Bear MarketsSecular vs. Cyclical Bull & Bear Markets (S&P 500, 1921–Present) Secular Market Cycles (long-term) Secular Bull: 1921–1929 1949–1968 1982–2000 2013–Present Secular Bear: 1929–1949 1968–1982 2000–2013 Cyclical Market Cycles (shorter-term swings inside secular trends) Cyclical Bears: 1929–1932, 1937–1942, 1946–1949, 1956–1957, 1961–1962, 1966, 1968–1970, 1973–1974, 1976–1978, 1980–1982, 1987, 1990, 2000–2002, 2007–2009, 2020 (COVID), 2022. Cyclical Bulls: 1932–1937, 1942–1946, 1949–1956, 1957–1961, 1962–1966, 1966–1968, 1970–1973, 1974–1976, 1978–1980, 1982–1987, 1987–1990, 1990–2000, 2002–2007, 2009–2020, 2020–2022, 2022–Present. Key Takeaways Secular Bulls tend to last ~13–15 years on average, delivering powerful long-term gains with multiple smaller cyclical corrections along the way. Secular Bears last ~13–16 years, usually defined by sideways price action with sharp rallies and deep drawdowns, leaving investors flat or negative after inflation. Cyclical Bulls average ~4–5 years, while Cyclical Bears average ~1–2 years. The current secular bull began in 2013 after breaking out of the 2000–2013 range.
SP:SPX
by Momentum_Trading_Strategy
1
THE FED'S SECRET INDICATOR JUST FLASHED REDHERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Federal Reserve has sent a clear signal this week: financial market conditions are deteriorating. After months of relative calm at a level of -0.53, the index rose on Wednesday, triggering the first "Risk Off" signal in an extended period. For institutional investors and risk-conscious traders, this is a moment that deserves attention. The NFCI is not just another technical indicator. It represents the most comprehensive assessment of American financial market conditions available. Over 100 different data points flow into its calculation: from credit conditions to volatility measures to banking sector stress indicators. When this index rises, it means liquidity conditions are deteriorating, credit risks are increasing, and financial market stability is under pressure. The historical evidence is clear. Both in 2008 and 2020, NFCI increases warned weeks before major market crashes of deteriorating conditions. The strategy of building defensive positions during NFCI rises has proven its effectiveness over long periods. While it doesn't deliver the spectacular returns of a pure buy-and-hold approach, it offers something far more valuable: capital protection in critical moments. BASE CASE SCENARIO Our base case assumes that the current NFCI rise marks the beginning of a typical correction phase. Historical data shows that such signals typically anticipate market declines of 10 to 15 percent over a period of three to six months. The correction would be driven by a combination of tighter credit conditions, increased volatility, and diminishing investor risk appetite. In this scenario, we expect the S&P 500 to retreat from its current level of approximately 6,470 points to a level between 5,500 and 5,800 points. This would correspond to a decline of about 10 to 15 percent, equivalent to a normal, healthy correction in an otherwise intact bull market. Recovery would begin once the NFCI starts falling again, signaling that financial market conditions are relaxing. This scenario is supported by the fact that the American economy remains fundamentally robust. Unemployment is low, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve still has room for monetary policy support. A moderate decline would correct overvalued areas of the market without triggering a systemic crisis. WORST CASE SCENARIO The more pessimistic scenario considers the possibility that the current NFCI rise is the beginning of a more serious financial market disruption. In this case, the index could continue deteriorating and reach values historically associated with genuine financial crises. A sustained rise over several weeks, especially if the NFCI reaches positive values, would indicate systemic problems. In this scenario, we would have to expect a market decline of 25 to 40 percent extending over 12 to 18 months. The S&P 500 would fall to levels between 3,900 and 4,900 points in this case. Such movements typically arise from a combination of credit squeeze, liquidity shortages, and self-reinforcing selling spirals. The triggers for such a scenario could be diverse: an unexpected escalation of the geopolitical situation, the bursting of a speculation bubble in an important market segment, or a revaluation of credit risks in the banking sector. The worst-case scenario would also mean that the Federal Reserve would have to respond with aggressive measures, which in turn could lead to longer-term structural changes in monetary policy. POSITIONING STRATEGY Given these scenarios, a graduated defense strategy is appropriate. The first line of defense consists of reducing existing long positions and taking profits. This is particularly important for overvalued growth stocks that suffer disproportionately in correction phases. The second stage involves building direct hedging positions. Put options on the S&P 500 with maturities of three to six months offer cost-effective protection against larger declines. Strike prices between 10 and 20 percent below the current market level should be chosen to achieve a balanced ratio between costs and protective effect. For more aggressive traders, direct short positions are also available, but with strict risk management. Short positions should not exceed 5 to 10 percent of the total portfolio and must be closed immediately upon a reversal of the NFCI signal. TIMING AND EXIT STRATEGY Timing is crucial for NFCI-based strategies. The index is updated only once weekly, meaning signals don't immediately react to daily market movements. However, this is a feature, not a bug. The weekly frequency filters out market noise and focuses on substantial changes in financial market conditions. The exit strategy is as important as the entry. As soon as the NFCI begins falling again, defensive positions should be gradually reduced. A decline of the index below its previous low would represent a clear "Risk On" signal and justify building new long positions. It's particularly important not to try to catch the absolute bottom. The NFCI strategy is designed to capture the big moves, not to trade every small fluctuation. Patience and discipline are more important here than precision. The current NFCI rise is a warning signal that should be taken seriously. While we cannot predict with certainty whether we are at the beginning of a small correction or a larger bear market, the historical evidence justifies defensive positioning. The combination of profit-taking, hedging strategies, and increased liquidity provides the best possible protection against the uncertainties that may lie ahead. At a time when many investors are blinded by ongoing market euphoria, the NFCI reminds us that markets are cyclical and that caution is often the better part of valor. Those who position defensively today will have the flexibility tomorrow to act from a position of strength when better opportunities arise again.
SP:SPXShort
by EdgeTools
7
Melt-Up into FOMC - Post FED Expect CorrectionMore all-time highs I shouldn't be upset (and I'm really not as the portfolio continues to make new YTD highs) But technically, it is extremely frustrating to see nothing more than slow grind higher after slwo grind higher on the indexes - and also see blowout moves on individual stocks (ORCL, GOOGL, AVGO for example) Rising Wedge still hasn't rolled over, resistance at 6500 hasn't been a wall yet 50 Day Moving Average is now over 90 bars from price. I could see price action melting up into a crescendo or peak pre, during, or post FOMC and then fading lower after to find some technical levels I've been eyeing for weeks Enjoy the melt-up, just be ready for some action and volatility in the indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, and the bond/yield markets I won't complain about YTD highs, but it's the caution ahead that I don't want to be surprised by in the coming weeks Plan accordingly - I'll continue to grind through it the best and safest way I know how Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
S&P500 | Daily rising wedge | GTradingMethodGood morning fellow traders, S&P price action is tightening inside a rising wedge on the daily chart, with volume steadily dropping. Rising wedges often signal potential reversals, but with CPI on deck, volatility could go either way. My guess, price tests top of rising wedge, finds resistance and down we go - a long way down. Keen to hear your thoughts on whether CPI is going to be a catalyst for a breakout or breakdown?
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by GTradingMethod
6
Good time to get out of the MARKET (Too Heated)The market has never been this expensive and retailers are being the exit liquidity for whales / institutions. Almost like many people are just sitting a sipping away on an active volcano. The market could be jumping for a few days, but a rate cut confirms that the market is weak and needs a boost / help. Unfortunately, it's too little too late. Most macros show a clear sign of stress, which is not being reflected in the market (for now). Don't get too complacent...the VIX will spike at astronomical levels when the hammer falls. Best of luck!
SP:SPXShort
by antonini2002
1
S&P500 Rising Wedge break-out imminent.Last week's (September 02, see chart below) buy signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 6530 Target, as the price reversed on its 4H MA200, which as we mentioned was the market's medium-term Support: Right now the index is supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of a Rising Wedge similar to the one at the start of the 4-month Channel Up. As you can see the symmetry between the two patterns is very high and the June break-out led to a +5.70% rise on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension before the next consolidation. A potential +5.70% rise from he recent 4H MA50 Low would now be at 6720 and that is our short-term Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot