US500 In strong bullish momentumFundamentals
The US500 remains supported by resilient earnings and the prospect of Federal Reserve easing, yet it faces notable vulnerabilities. While softer jobs growth and weakening leading indicators strengthen the case for upcoming rate cuts, a short term tailwind for equities, they also highlight the economy’s underlying fragility.
At the same time, elevated valuations and heavy market concentration in a handful of mega-cap leaders leave the index exposed to sharper corrections should sentiment shift.
For traders, monitoring sector rotation, earnings revisions, and macroeconomic signals will be critical to navigating opportunities while managing downside risks.
Technicals
US500 price action reveals a strong bullish trend, supported by momentum indicators and consistent uptrends, though signs of overbought conditions suggest a potential for short term pullbacks.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Support: 6,545 is a key technical support zone; below this, 6,505 is a significant psychological and trend support zone.
Immediate Resistance: 6,630 is the nearest overhead ceiling, followed by 6,690.
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SPX500 trade ideas
SPX Supported by Trendline and Rate Cut ExpectationsThe S&P 500 has been climbing steadily, with the ascending trendline from April acting as a reliable backbone for the move. Despite short-term volatility, buyers continue to defend higher lows. Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts, the trend structure remains intact unless key supports give way.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Current price: 6,584
The green trendline (since April) is guiding the advance.
Price is consolidating near highs, supported by demand zones underneath.
🛡️ Support Zones & Stop-Loss (White Lines):
🟢 6,537 – 1H Support (Medium Risk)
First line of defense for short-term traders.
Stop-loss: Below 6,513
🟡 6,018 – Daily Support (Swing Trade Setup)
Stronger base for medium-term positioning.
Stop-loss: Below 5,919
🧭 Outlook
Bullish Case: Hold above 6,537 + April trendline intact → continuation toward new highs above 6,600–6,700.
Bearish Case: Break below 6,537 could trigger a correction into 6,018. Losing that zone would weaken the April trendline structure.
Bias: Bullish while April trendline holds.
🌍 Fundamental Insight
Rate cut expectations continue to provide a macro tailwind for equities. With inflation moderating and yields easing, investors remain willing to support risk assets. A sudden shift in data or Fed tone, however, could test the resilience of the April trendline.
✅ Conclusion
The S&P 500 remains in a strong bullish structure, anchored by the April trendline. Unless supports at 6,537 or 6,018 are lost, the path of least resistance remains higher.
If you found this useful, please don’t forget to like and follow for more structure-based insights.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
S&P500 Historical Price Highs vs. Inflation-Adjusted Highs Nominal Price Definition (most used in history books & Wall Street research)
Inflation-Adjusted Definition (shown in your chart)
If you bought the 1929 top, you weren’t truly back to even (after inflation) until 1958.
Same with the 1968 top — real break-even wasn’t until the early ’90s.
Same with the 2000 top — real break-even was ~2016.
This method shows how devastating secular bears are if you happen to buy at the peak and hold. It makes the secular bears look even longer, because inflation erodes your gains even when the index regains its nominal high.
If the market wants to go up, we followThe US500 is breaking the resistance level and trading to new highs. We have to remind ourselves that we are not here to predict, but rather to follow the market. The market is breaking higher, and thus we follow.
For this trade, likely best to just use a trailing stop loss using either a 2-day low price, or ATRx2 trailing stop loss.
SPX500 - 10% historical gains aheadThe Fed is shifting gears – and history shows what usually follows. Looking back at the past 21 Fed cutting cycles since 1957, the S&P 500 delivered +9.6% average returns within 12 months after the first cut.
This rally wasn’t just luck:
+6.1% from multiple expansion as valuations re-rate higher
+3.5% from earnings growth as financial conditions ease
Technically, the SPX500 has just broken out of consolidation and remains in a strong upward channel. Momentum is aligned with history – positioning the index for another leg higher. 🚀
If history rhymes, we could be looking at double-digit gains over the next year. The risk/reward couldn’t be clearer.
>> The white box shows you what a +10% gain would mean.
👉 Are you positioned for the next Fed-cut bull leg?
Stay safe and happy trading,
Meikel
SPX 2Hour Time frameSPX 2-Hour Snapshot
Current Value: 6,512.61 USD
Change: +0.27% from the previous close
Intraday High: 6,525.75 USD
Intraday Low: 6,490.25 USD
🔎 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Neutral
Moving Averages:
5-period MA: 6,487.92 USD
20-period MA: 6,456.40 USD
50-period MA: 6,363.42 USD
100-period MA: 6,086.43 USD
200-period MA: 5,975.33 USD
📈 Market Sentiment
Pivot Points:
Resistance: 6,525.75 USD
Support: 6,490.25 USD
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,525.75 USD could signal a move toward 6,600 USD.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,490.25 USD may lead to further downside.
Overall Bias: Neutral, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators.
S&P | 30min Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders 👋
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P has been pushing into new highs, but a potential double top is forming right at diagonal resistance. This is a key level for me — the confluence of structure and resistance makes this an area worth watching closely.
If the double top holds, price might first deviate through my entry range and then retest the diagonal resistance. For me to take a short, I’ll be looking for a 30-minute candle close back within the range as confirmation.
📊 Trade Plan:
RR: 3.5
Entry:6 537.4
Stop Loss: 6 543.8
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 515
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 511
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
When trading double tops, I always wait for confirmation (like a close back within range). It reduces false entries and adds probability to the trade.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Follow me for more setups and let me know — do you think this double top will hold, or will the S&P push through resistance to fresh highs?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
SPX 3Hour Time frameSPX 3-Hour Snapshot
Current Price: 6,512.62 USD
Change: +0.21% from the previous close
Recent High: 6,508.23 USD (August 28, 2025)
Recent Low: 5,500.00 USD (March 13, 2025)
🔎 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): Neutral
MACD: Bullish momentum
Moving Averages:
5-period SMA: Buy signal
10-period SMA: Buy signal
20-period SMA: Buy signal
50-period SMA: Buy signal
📈 Market Sentiment
Golden Cross: The S&P 500 recently formed a "golden cross," where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
Business Insider
Analyst Outlook: Barclays raised its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,450, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence.
Reuters
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,508.23 USD could lead to a push toward 6,600 USD and higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,400 USD may test support around 6,200 USD.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, with positive momentum but facing near-term resistance.
SPX500 H4 | Bullish continuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has reacted off the buy entry which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 6,535.17, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 6,459.99, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 6,589.58, which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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4H IdeaThe only trade as of now would be a retest of old resistance/support. Have a stop under support area.
Entry 1 - would be a bit more aggressive as price moves into old resistance.
Entry 2 - enter as price moves towards the bottom of old resistance.
Entry 3 - would be entered as price starts to bounce from old resistance.
This would be the plan, however, the caveat is this: How did price get back to old resistance?
If price starts to build lower highs and lower lows as it moves back down then the plan may have to be scrapped as there is a higher potential for price to fail and begin to trend lower.
4H Played OutFirst entry retested and played out to the upside almost picture perfect. Again, would've possibly stopped you out on the first entry as it wicked below the support area, but upon a possible re-entry once it came back into support you would have made back that loss and then some.
2nd entry or possible add-on area. This was a bit more riskier as a 2nd entry due to price moving up from original entry. Price consolidated overnight and wicked down into the support area at Tuesday's market open. Buyers again stepped in and though there was drawdown, there was a fixed place to stop out below the consolidation area, so risk was known upon entry. 4 hour targets were hit.
There is no trade now until a retest or news to bring price down on the 4 hour time frame.
SNP500 long target 6600.0weaker labor market data has boosted expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in a high chance of a September move that would ease financial conditions and support equities. Tech momentum—particularly Nasdaq strength and the addition of Robinhood and AppLovin to the S&P 500—is adding fuel, while investors also position ahead of key inflation data that could reinforce the dovish outlook. Institutional forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI projecting further upside into year-end and beyond have strengthened confidence, making futures an attractive, liquid, and leveraged way to gain exposure to the anticipated rally
SPX | Buy & Sell Setup | 08 Sep 2025 – 11:05 EDT
SPX | Buy & Sell Setup | 08 Sep 2025 – 11:05 EDT
Buy Zone: 6509– 6490
Sell Zone: 6469 – 6357
Scenario 1 : Buy
Entry: 6510
Stop Loss: 6465
Targets:
TP1 → 6580 (1:5)
Analysis:
From Buy Zone (6509– 6490) creates possibilities for a buy move.
Scenario 2 : Sell
Entry: 6465
Stop Loss: 6510
Targets:
TP1 → 6415
TP2 → 6350
Analysis:
From Sell Zone (6469 – 6357) creates possibilities for a sell move.
Stay alert on updates here.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.