Precious metals bull market starting pointLot's of similar charts aligning. We are right at the decision point. Will it be like "false start" 2016 or summer 2020? Or will it be more like 1976 or 2000??
If it's like 1976 or 2000, that means the bull market for precious metals and precious metals miners, in real terms, is just beginning.
We'll find out soon!
SPX500 trade ideas
SPX500USD – Rejected at 6,550, Holding 6,490 SupportThe S&P 500 Index faced rejection at the 6,550 resistance zone after a strong bullish run. Price is now pulling back toward the 6,490 support, which will be key for buyers to defend in order to maintain upside momentum.
Support at: 6,490 / 6,455 / 6,350 🔽
Resistance at: 6,550 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A rebound from 6,490 could retest 6,550, and a breakout above would extend gains.
🔽 Bearish: A break below 6,490 and 6,455 would expose the 6,350 zone.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Bullish continuation setup?S&P500 is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 6,511.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 6,440.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 6,603.09
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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SPX 1D Close Up Corrective to (4) and finishing the year STRONG!Based on this count I believe that the markets will begin to go corrective starting this next week into October and finishing the year at higher highs. As always trade responsibly and wait for your confirmation bias (whatever that might be)...
$SPX500 Swing Trade: Bullish SMA Setup!📈 S&P 500 CFD: Thief’s Bullish Pullback Plan 🤑💰
🚨 Swing/Day Trade Setup: S&P 500 Index CFDSteal profits with this 200 SMA Pullback Plan using the "Thief" layered entry strategy! 📊💸 Below is a detailed breakdown combining technicals, fundamentals, and market sentiment to help you navigate this bullish opportunity. Let’s dive in! 🐂
🎯 Trading Plan Overview
Asset: S&P 500 Index CFD ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 )
Bias: Bullish 🐂
Strategy: Pullback to 200 SMA with layered "Thief" limit orders for entries
Why This Plan?
Technicals: The S&P 500 is riding record highs with strong momentum, supported by the 200 SMA as a dynamic support level.
Fundamentals: Cooling inflation (PPI -0.1% vs. +0.3% expected), 100% Fed rate cut probability, and robust corporate earnings (+10% in 2025, +13% in 2026) fuel bullish sentiment.
Sentiment: Neutral Fear & Greed Index (51/100) with low volatility (VIX ~15.04) and AI-driven institutional flows (e.g., Oracle +30%).
📊 Thief’s Technical Setup
Entry Strategy:
Use the Thief Layered Entry approach with multiple buy limit orders to catch pullbacks:
🔔 Buy Limit 1: $6,460
🔔 Buy Limit 2: $6,480
🔔 Buy Limit 3: $6,500
🔔 Buy Limit 4: $6,520
💡 Pro Tip: Adjust layer levels based on your risk tolerance and market conditions. You can enter at any price level or add more layers for flexibility!
Entry Trigger: Pullback to the 200 SMA for optimal risk-reward.
Stop Loss (SL):
Suggested "Thief" SL: $6,440 (below key support).
⚠️ Note: Adjust your SL based on your risk management and strategy. Trade at your own risk, dear Traders!
Take Profit (TP):
Target: $6,700 (near resistance, potential overbought zone, or "police barricade" trap).
🚨 Note: Escape with profits before resistance hits! Set your TP based on your goals—don’t blindly follow mine. Take money at your own risk!
📡 Real-Time Market Data (10 Sept 2025, UTC+1)
Daily Change: +37.43 points (+0.57%)
YTD Performance: Record highs driven by AI optimism and Fed rate cut expectations.
😰😊 Fear & Greed Index
Current Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 51/100)
Breakdown:
📈 Market Momentum: Bullish (S&P 500 above 125-day MA).
🌬️ Volatility (VIX): Low (~15.04), signaling calm markets.
🛡️ Safe Haven Demand: Moderate (bonds lagging stocks).
💰 Junk Bond Demand: Slight greed (narrowing yield spreads).
⚖️ Options Activity: Balanced put/call ratio.
🏛️ Macro & Fundamental Analysis
Producer Price Index (PPI): August PPI fell -0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected), easing inflation concerns.
Fed Rate Cut: 100% probability of a 25-50 bps cut in September 2025.
Labor Market: Weaker-than-expected (911K jobs revised down through March 2025).
Corporate Earnings: Strong outlook (+10% growth in 2025, +13% in 2026).
Key Drivers:
🚀 AI investment surge (e.g., Oracle +30%, Nvidia strength).
🌍 Geopolitical risks (Poland-Russia tensions, Middle East concerns).
📉 Trade policy uncertainties (Trump tariff threats).
🐂🐻 Sentiment Analysis
Institutional Outlook: Cautiously optimistic
🏦 Deutsche Bank & Wells Fargo: S&P 500 targets at 7,000+ by 2026.
💡 Focus: AI capex and earnings resilience.
Retail Trader Mood: Mixed but leaning bullish
📈 Meme stock activity (e.g., GameStop +10%).
₿ Crypto correlation (Bitcoin at $111.9K, Solana at 7-month highs).
⚡ Why This Plan Stands Out
Technical Edge: The 200 SMA pullback is a proven strategy for swing/day traders, offering high-probability entries.
Thief Strategy: Layered limit orders maximize flexibility and reduce risk of missing the move.
Macro Support: Cooling inflation, Fed rate cuts, and AI-driven earnings create a bullish backdrop.
Sentiment Boost: Neutral sentiment with low volatility supports steady upside potential.
Risks to Watch: Geopolitical shocks, overvaluation concerns, and seasonal market weakness.
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch (in USD)
Nasdaq 100 CFD ( NASDAQ:NDX ): Tracks tech-heavy AI stocks driving S&P 500 momentum.
VIX ( TVC:VIX ): Monitor volatility spikes for potential reversals.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:TNX ): Impacts risk sentiment and stock valuations.
FX:USDJPY : Correlates with risk-on/risk-off market moves.
Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ): Tracks retail sentiment and risk appetite.
🚨 Key Takeaways
🏆 S&P 500 at record highs, supported by soft PPI and Fed cut expectations.
😎 Neutral sentiment with a greedy tilt if macro data improves.
🤖 AI trade dominates institutional flows, powering bullish momentum.
📅 Watch upcoming CPI data and Fed meeting for next catalysts.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#SPX500 #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ThiefStrategy #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #AI #FedRateCut #TradingIdeas
S&P 500 to 7000 over the next 60 daysYeT another contrarian idea as so many on the platform publish S&P 500 “short” positions. Just as with the NASDAQ 100 idea, many paper hands were flushed out of the market earlier in the year. Now they wait with cash as the market grinds higher. Others throwing themselves into Put options.
What next? First the basic question trend and support/resistance.
The Trend
Higher lows have been printed consistently since the April sell off. The trend is up.
Support & Resistance
Look left. Multiple levels of past resistance now confirm as support (blue arrows). How is it possible to be bearish?
Sentiment
As with the NASDAQ 100 idea, much of the retail market maintains a short bias with the Put/Call ratio far into the bearish territory. Historically, when put/call ratios spike above extreme levels, the S&P 500 rallies for weeks to months after.
Why 7000?
The breakout above the prior all time high of 6150 sent the market into price discovery. Selling pressure is largely absent with the April flush out leaving Wave 5 to develop. The uptrend channel will now not find resistance until the upper side of the channel, which is conveniently enough the Fibonacci 1.618 extension @ 7k.
Why 60 days?
Specifically this is a timeline defined by the US debt markets, which is for another post.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 climbs a wall of worry as confidence in the US markets evaporates. Loud bearish calls dominate the headlines, which is understandable. However the chart tells the real story: higher lows, confirmed supports, sentiment extremes, and extension forecasts all align with continuation.
A move to 7000 area is very probable, what the market has in store afterwards is perhaps the bigger story, which is for another time.
Is it possible for the market to correct to 6200 and below like many are calling for? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
SPX 2Hour Time frameSPX 2-Hour Snapshot
Current Value: 6,512.61 USD
Change: +0.27% from the previous close
Intraday High: 6,525.75 USD
Intraday Low: 6,490.25 USD
🔎 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Neutral
Moving Averages:
5-period MA: 6,487.92 USD
20-period MA: 6,456.40 USD
50-period MA: 6,363.42 USD
100-period MA: 6,086.43 USD
200-period MA: 5,975.33 USD
📈 Market Sentiment
Pivot Points:
Resistance: 6,525.75 USD
Support: 6,490.25 USD
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,525.75 USD could signal a move toward 6,600 USD.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,490.25 USD may lead to further downside.
Overall Bias: Neutral, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators.
SPX500 Holds Above 6,527 Ahead of U.S. PPI DataSPX500 – Overview
Global equities rose early Wednesday as bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week strengthened after more weak U.S. jobs data. Traders now await the release of U.S. PPI today and CPI tomorrow, which may spark short-term volatility, though few expect them to alter the Fed’s plans.
Technical Outlook:
📈 The index remains in a bullish trend, with potential to set a new ATH near 6,550. A confirmed breakout above this level could open another bullish leg.
📉 To confirm bearish momentum, price would need to close a 1H candle below 6,527, exposing downside targets at 6,518 → 6,506.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,527
Resistance: 6,550 – 6,566
Support: 6,518 – 6,506
S&P | 30min Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders 👋
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P has been pushing into new highs, but a potential double top is forming right at diagonal resistance. This is a key level for me — the confluence of structure and resistance makes this an area worth watching closely.
If the double top holds, price might first deviate through my entry range and then retest the diagonal resistance. For me to take a short, I’ll be looking for a 30-minute candle close back within the range as confirmation.
📊 Trade Plan:
RR: 3.5
Entry:6 537.4
Stop Loss: 6 543.8
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 515
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 511
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
When trading double tops, I always wait for confirmation (like a close back within range). It reduces false entries and adds probability to the trade.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Follow me for more setups and let me know — do you think this double top will hold, or will the S&P push through resistance to fresh highs?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
SPX 3Hour Time frameSPX 3-Hour Snapshot
Current Price: 6,512.62 USD
Change: +0.21% from the previous close
Recent High: 6,508.23 USD (August 28, 2025)
Recent Low: 5,500.00 USD (March 13, 2025)
🔎 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): Neutral
MACD: Bullish momentum
Moving Averages:
5-period SMA: Buy signal
10-period SMA: Buy signal
20-period SMA: Buy signal
50-period SMA: Buy signal
📈 Market Sentiment
Golden Cross: The S&P 500 recently formed a "golden cross," where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
Business Insider
Analyst Outlook: Barclays raised its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,450, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence.
Reuters
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,508.23 USD could lead to a push toward 6,600 USD and higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,400 USD may test support around 6,200 USD.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, with positive momentum but facing near-term resistance.
SPX500 H4 | Bullish continuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has reacted off the buy entry which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 6,535.17, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 6,459.99, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 6,589.58, which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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4H IdeaThe only trade as of now would be a retest of old resistance/support. Have a stop under support area.
Entry 1 - would be a bit more aggressive as price moves into old resistance.
Entry 2 - enter as price moves towards the bottom of old resistance.
Entry 3 - would be entered as price starts to bounce from old resistance.
This would be the plan, however, the caveat is this: How did price get back to old resistance?
If price starts to build lower highs and lower lows as it moves back down then the plan may have to be scrapped as there is a higher potential for price to fail and begin to trend lower.
4H Played OutFirst entry retested and played out to the upside almost picture perfect. Again, would've possibly stopped you out on the first entry as it wicked below the support area, but upon a possible re-entry once it came back into support you would have made back that loss and then some.
2nd entry or possible add-on area. This was a bit more riskier as a 2nd entry due to price moving up from original entry. Price consolidated overnight and wicked down into the support area at Tuesday's market open. Buyers again stepped in and though there was drawdown, there was a fixed place to stop out below the consolidation area, so risk was known upon entry. 4 hour targets were hit.
There is no trade now until a retest or news to bring price down on the 4 hour time frame.
S&P500 bullish sideways consolidation Equities: Rate-cut expectations outweighed slowdown fears. S&P 500 (+0.21%) closed just shy of record highs, NASDAQ (+0.45%) hit a fresh record. Defensive sectors lagged, leaving the equal-weighted S&P (-0.04%) slightly lower. In Europe, STOXX 600 (+0.52%) and CAC 40 (+0.78%) gained ahead of France’s confidence vote.
Corporate drivers: Apple’s launch event today puts spotlight on iPhone 17 Air, though analysts see the Pro line as the true sales catalyst. Big-ticket M&A and tech deals: Anglo American–Teck merger ($50bn) and Microsoft–Nebius AI cloud contract (~$20bn).
Conclusion for S&P 500 trading:
Momentum remains positive with the index near record highs, supported by the rate-cut narrative and strong tech sentiment. However, breadth is weak (equal-weighted index flat), suggesting gains are concentrated. Traders may lean bullish into Apple’s event, but need to watch for rotation risk if defensives keep lagging.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6553
Resistance Level 2: 6590
Resistance Level 3: 6630
Support Level 1: 6440
Support Level 2: 6410
Support Level 3: 6380
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S&P500 Rising Wedge break-out imminent.Last week's (September 02, see chart below) buy signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 6530 Target, as the price reversed on its 4H MA200, which as we mentioned was the market's medium-term Support:
Right now the index is supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of a Rising Wedge similar to the one at the start of the 4-month Channel Up.
As you can see the symmetry between the two patterns is very high and the June break-out led to a +5.70% rise on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension before the next consolidation. A potential +5.70% rise from he recent 4H MA50 Low would now be at 6720 and that is our short-term Target.
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SPX500 Holds Above 6,506 – Bulls Target 6,527/6,550SPX500 – Overview
The S&P 500 reached our target at 6,506 and is still pushing higher toward 6,527.
Technical Outlook:
📈 Bullish scenario: As long as price holds above 6,506, momentum is expected to continue toward 6,527 → 6,550.
📉 Bearish scenario: A confirmed 1H close below 6,506 would open the way to 6,490, with further downside risk toward 6,469.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,506
Resistance: 6,527 – 6,550
Support: 6,490 – 6,469
📌 Bias: Bullish while above 6,506; bearish momentum resumes only if price closes below this pivot.
previous idea: