SUI 2-day death crossA 2 day death cross prints on the above 2 day chart of SUI. That is when the 2-day 50 SMA crosses down the 2-day 200 SMA (red). Sounds bearish doesn’t it?
The truth, when looking left, was far different. Price action climbed an astonishing 900% on the 2 day death cross print.
Is history repeating?
Maybe. There’s two questions that first must be positively answered before a repeat of history:
1. The trend, is higher highs higher lows printing?
2. Support and resistance, which is it?
Both questions are negatively answered at this moment. A long position is irrational until that changes.
Moving averages do not predict the future
Too easily traders see moving averages as a forecast of things to come. It feels dumb for saying this: " A moving average is the average value for a set of values over a given period of time ". You’d be surprised how many people do not realise that. Moving averages are telling you something of the past and nothing about the future. Only questions 1 and 2 can do that.
What can be expected?
It is clear an upward move in price action can be expected on the death cross print. At least until market structure. This would be a 50% gain from price action today. After that, questions 1 and 2 must become positive, just as before in late 2024.
Conclusions
The so-called death cross, a term that sounds far more apocalyptic than it deserves, has once again provoked hysteria in the usual corners of the market. Every time two moving averages intersect, a small army of self-anointed prophets appear, clutching at trend lines as though they were holy scripture. But, as ever, the data mocks the drama. The last time this same formation appeared, SUI didn’t die, it rose ninefold. That’s not a harbinger of doom; it’s a reminder that the market, unlike superstition, doesn’t care for human expectations.
Until higher highs and higher lows reassert themselves, until resistance becomes support, the idea of a renewed uptrend remains aspirational rather than empirical. To treat a moving average as predictive is to confuse the rearview mirror for the road ahead. It tells us what has been, not what will be. Yet traders persist in treating it as gospel, and then curse the market for their misplaced faith when the price does not comply.
A short term rally is likely to occur, as it often does when hysteria meets technical imbalance. But without confirmation of structure, such rallies are little more than reprieves, merciful pauses in an otherwise indifferent process of price discovery.
Ww
Disclaimer
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This isn’t financial advice. If you’re making trades because a bloke on the internet wrote “death cross” in bold letters, you deserve every emotional rollercoaster that follows. I don’t care if you’re bullish, bearish, or just bored, or if you lose money, that’s not a “market manipulation conspiracy,” that’s just you being wrong.
Do your own research, manage your own risk, and please, for everyone’s sake, stop treating moving averages like they’re tarot cards.
