Trade ideas
CMG: A shortI am bearish on CMG in a short term sense. Story/fundamental/technical wise
Technical: The price has breached the 200 Weekly SMA and shows weak price action. I am expecting a drop but I am unsure where it stops.
Fundamentals: CMG is over valued and based on classical valuation based on DCF, CMG's fair value is at $288. Which is a big drop. In terms of PE and PS it is undervalued as well. However, since it is a growth stocks and it assumed that earnings are used for growth, EV/EBITDA still shows decent valuation of 14
Story wise: Many would have known about the e coli scare and causes a drop on stores sales. Though as a food scientist this food scare is actually very small. However, due to fear (funny enough from wall street) the stock may see further decline.
For short term players CMG is a good short but once there is a good time I will get long since it is a favourable food restaurant and also have big room for growth.
CMG LongHere's a channel receiving little attention. Could easily see this leading to a short-term bounce, perhaps even up to the top of the channel.
Chipotle - Still beaten and beaten againThis stock continues diving though with less momentum than during the first dive sequence. You may think about some shorting on this stock until it reaches the 400 level that I consider as a psychological boundary where fear must be reassessed. The 4H chart with Ichimoku is for sure bearish. There are no real signs of a strong reversal so far.
Short CMG for Gap Fill to 447.65Quick short here with CMG loosing key support at 472. That gap from Oct 2013 at 447.65 is just screaming for attention! Look to short below 472, but after a potential bounce tomorrow off of today's broader market oversold levels. Target at 447.65. Keep your stop at 472 for Risk/Reward of 1.87x. CMG Calls are trading at a new 52W high IV, again! Consider expressing the short via selling expensive calls.
about to shoot higher? $CMGnice little support at these levels, stock way oversold and my custom MACD is about to cross signal line. this could signal a nice entry
CMG - Chipotle punishment ongoingChipotle still heavily subject to E.Coli cases. Many comments on various sites indicate that restaurants are significantly less frequented. Some are even empty with 4 people instead of a full room... Situation should not be clearer until earning report at the beginning of February, most analysts expect a sharp results drop. Expect the stock crash to continue in the next few weeks until intermediate levels are hit.
Level 400 was reached in second half of 2013 where the stock consolidated during a few weeks before rising up, this could form the first support. Pivot (~495) was broken in a straight free fall.
Don't touch CMG until it tests 472Sentiment is awful, there's no earnings info for another month, and the chart looks disastrous. Appears like a perfect set-up for a contrarian trade. We're watching Jun 600 calls, but we're not touching them until the stock tests the 470-472 level. With IV at a new 52 week high today, the calls are just too expensive and there's still room for another ~$20 lower in the charts.
Chipotle nearing double support @ $440CMG has support from 2012 highs around $440. The 0.618 retracement is also right at that same level.
I will try a buy limit order at $440, with a stop loss at $420.
CMG - Gonna get worse* Strong downtrend continues
* Expect this one to continue to sell into earnings that are getting slice further
* Use pauses (such as at the 560 level in early Dec) as short entry points
CMG MIGHT RETEST AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 607.55 Retest and bounce off 480.85 and trends up to lower high 551. if breaks with bullish candle, volume and momo may go to 607.55.
On the other side, it might rest due to RSI and continue to trend down till 480.85 before bounce up. Any suggestion? :)
Bullish One White Soldier Usually this bullish pattern appears in downtrend of which the price clearly has been last few weeks. However, this may finally give bulls the chance they needed to believe the worst is behind but don't get trapped in a complete smugness here which could be a short covering rally. If markets remain uptick and close the year strong so will this stock recovery towards $614 area but down the road the chance we will see below $500 remains very strong. Our long position has given us 7.16% gain in a few sessions and good to take profit right at and around $580 or monitor closely. Real-time alerts go www.2waytrading.com
$CMG Do or die momentSince last earnings it hasn't been able to overcome the 9 and 20 day moving averages and has been shot down at the trendline every time. Moving averages are flattening a bit and with a couple more days of low volume consolidation can get it over the hump. $590-$600 would be the next logical target area above. If it loses steam and falls below $550 most likely revisits the lows.
Funny BullsSilly bulls, this burrito fell apart before the E Coli scares. Stick with the trend until it's broken...
$CMG False Downside Breakout with Upside Targets$CMG Chipotle recent retraced all of its gains from July.
The stock double-bottomed and experience a false breakout to the downside.
Long Target 1: $635.44
Long Target 2: $677.97
CMG - Short term TradeCMG - I am looking for the small triangle to break out...
If the breakout fails, Take the position. Assuming you can identify a failed breakout.
$CMG: Busted Burrito$CMG broke below a long term trend line back in April and it has returned back to the trend which now acts resistance. A bearish head and shoulders pattern could also be forming. $CMG reports after the close today. Same stores growth has been decelerating and food prices were higher during the quarter. I see $CMG falling after earnings to the nearest support line at $600.
Disclosure: Long put spread.
