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UNF1! trade ideas

#202535 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-miniGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. I see the current range from 22800 - 24069 and the middle of it is 23460ish and we closed right at it. Bears can argue a head & shoulders on the daily chart and bulls still have two decent bull trend lines going for them. I don’t think around 23500 you can have any edge. I’d like for this to not hit 24k again but the odds for that are low. Best to wait. current market cycle: bull trend key levels for next week: 22700 - 24100 bull case: Bulls got a new ath and the market is overdue for a pullback but that does not mean we will get one. Bulls are still in full control as long as they keep the market above 22800. Having said that, it’s overdone, overbought and we are likely at the peak of the bubble. Invalidation is below 22780 bear case: Bears need to do more. Anything below 23000 would be a start. That would break both trend lines and opens the possibility for 22000 over the next weeks. For now I don’t think it’s good to sell around the midpoint of this triangle. Invalidation is above 23800 short term: Neutral around 23500. Same as last week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-08-10: 22000 likely to get hit this year gain. 20000 seems a bit much for 3 months left.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/12/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 24029.25 - PR Low: 24001.00 - NZ Spread: 63.25 No key scheduled economic events Teasing ATH break Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 9/12) - Session Open ATR: 277.00 - Volume: 17K - Open Int: 283K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 24382 - Mid: 23239 - Short: 22096 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
Buy The Dip I always look to Buy the Dip. The green shaded area is prime territory. As you can see, it is an accumulation/distribution zone. The faint orange line through the middle of it was a vpoc from 8/27 - 9/04. Depending on the chart, general tenor of the markets and/or any market moving news, I will place my orders in advance, kind of like a shark waiting for the prey to arrive. Otherwise, I wait for the bounce then I pounce. (A little Ali). I buy 1 MNQ contract every 5 points. If the markets are sluggish my target is 16 points. If they are hopping my target is 21 points. My goal is five of these a day, five days a week. 16 x $2.00 - $.91 x 2 = $30.18 x 5 x 5 x 50(weeks) = $37,725.00. Often the same entry will fill and hit its target more than once. In this chart let's say the 23,835 fills and quickly hits its target then I will enter that order a second time and maybe a third time. And so on down to the bottom of the shaded area. Be careful with these. Read the charts and markets carefully. Always be certain you have enough margin to cover in case the px drops through the bottom. Sometimes it does. I call these trades Fun Money. It's a starting point. I usually average far more than 25 trades a week.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Sidgate
Multi-Asset Execution Chart Analysis & TradesAnalysis Date : September 11, 2025 Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework Methodology : Enhanced Dual Renko Chart System with Optimized Technical Indicators Executive Summary Execution chart analysis validates the exceptional institutional opportunities identified in our structure analysis. All three primary equity indices show perfect technical confirmation of institutional positioning with strong momentum indicators. Commodity and currency markets reveal significant technical conflicts requiring defensive positioning adjustments. Enhanced Indicator Configuration DMI/ADX Visual Standards : ADX (Green) : Trend strength indicator (>25 = strong trend) +DI (Blue) : Bullish directional movement -DI (Red) : Bearish directional movement Line Weight : 3pt for enhanced visibility Dual Stochastics Configuration : Tactical (5,3,3) : %K (Dark Blue), %D (Teal) - Short-term momentum Strategic (50,3,3) : %K (Black), %D (Red Circles) - Medium-term context Primary Opportunities - Technical Validation (75-85% Total Allocation) 1. DOW JONES (YM) - 30-35% ALLOCATION Classification : OPTIMAL RISK/REWARD - Superior Technical Confirmation YM Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bullish alignment confirmed (black above orange) ADX : 47.74 (highest trend strength among all indices) +DI/-DI Ratio : 2.69:1 bullish dominance Momentum Quality : Exceptional - strongest ADX with optimal positioning Stochastics : Tactical 98.86/84.24, Strategic 98.86/84.02 (peak momentum) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (80% probability) : Entry : /MYM at current levels 46,050 (optimal positioning confirmed) Technical Edge : Strongest ADX + minimal extension risk Stop Loss : 45,000 (2.3% risk - best among indices) Target 1 : 47,000 (+2.1% - close 40% position) Target 2 : 48,000 (+4.2% - close 30% position) Trail Strategy : 150-point swing lows on remaining 30% Consolidation Scenario (15% probability) : Range : 45,500-46,500 around YTD POC consensus Strategy : Accumulate on any dips to 45,700 Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support Risk Management : Optimal positioning within institutional zone Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 45,000 (institutional consensus violation) Action : Reduce position by 50% Probability : Very low given YTD POC validation and technical strength Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence 2. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION Classification : EXCEPTIONAL MOMENTUM - Exceptional Institutional Backing NQ Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Strong bullish alignment (black above orange) ADX : 44.91 (exceptional trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : 2.90:1 bullish dominance (highest among indices) Momentum Quality : Exceptional directional bias Stochastics : Tactical 88.27/80.21, Strategic 88.27/80.21 (strong sustainable) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (75% probability) : Entry : /MNQ at current levels or pullback to 23,700-23,800 Technical Edge : Highest +DI/-DI ratio with institutional backing Stop Loss : 23,000 (4.3% risk) Target 1 : 25,000 (+4.3% - close 50% position) Target 2 : 25,500 (+6.1% - close 25% position) Trail Strategy : 100-point swing lows on remaining 25% Consolidation Scenario (20% probability) : Range : 23,500-24,500 above institutional accumulation Strategy : Scale into weakness, maintain core position Management : Use tactical stochastics for entry timing Support : 26.8:1 institutional backing provides confidence Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 23,000 (Q3 POC violation) Action : Exit all positions immediately Reassessment : Wait for institutional re-accumulation Probability : Very low given exceptional institutional support 3. S&P 500 (ES) - 20-25% ALLOCATION Classification : SOLID CONFIRMATION - Strong Institutional Support ES Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bullish alignment maintained (black above orange) ADX : 41.32 (strong trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : 1.74:1 bullish dominance Momentum Quality : Solid institutional validation Stochastics : Tactical 34.44/93.30, Strategic 98.26/95.30 (extreme overbought) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (70% probability) : Entry : /MES on any pullback to 6,450-6,500 Current Caution : Strategic stochastics extremely overbought Stop Loss : 6,300 (3.8% risk) Target 1 : 6,700 (+2.8% - close 50% position) Target 2 : 6,800 (+4.4% - close 25% position) Profit Management : Take profits on strength given overbought conditions Consolidation Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 6,400-6,600 around institutional levels Strategy : Wait for tactical stochastics to reset before adding Management : Reduce position size until momentum cools Context : Strategic overbought suggests pause needed Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support failure) Action : Systematic position reduction Management : Tight stops given overbought technical readings Re-entry : Wait for technical reset and institutional validation Secondary Opportunities - Mixed Technical Signals (10-15% Total Allocation) 4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 8-12% ALLOCATION Classification : INSTITUTIONAL CONFLICT - Defensive Positioning Required CL Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bullish alignment (black above orange) ADX : 42.19 (strong trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 2.44:1 (-DI 42.10 vs +DI 17.86) Critical Conflict : DEMA bullish vs DMI strongly bearish Stochastics : Tactical 9.26/27.64, Strategic 27.64/33.61 (oversold setup) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (45% probability) : Entry Criteria : WAIT for +DI to cross above -DI for confirmation Current Action : Reduce position size due to momentum conflict Stop Loss : 61.50 (tight due to bearish momentum) Target : 65.50 if technical alignment achieved Risk Management : Maximum 1.5% account risk due to signal conflict Neutral Scenario (35% probability) : Range : 62.00-64.00 within institutional accumulation Strategy : Maintain minimal defensive position Monitoring : Daily +DI/-DI relationship for momentum shift Institutional Support : Strong Q2 accumulation provides floor Bearish Scenario (20% probability) : Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure) Action : Complete position liquidation Reason : Bearish momentum confirming institutional breakdown Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support) with technical confirmation High-Risk Positions - Technical Deterioration (0-8% Total Allocation) 5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 3-5% ALLOCATION Classification : HIGH RISK - Institutional Disengagement Confirmed NG Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bearish alignment (black below orange) ADX : 42.79 (strong trend - bearish direction) +DI/-DI Ratio : EXTREME BEARISH 6.30:1 (-DI 53.25 vs +DI 8.45) Technical Reality : All major indicators bearishly aligned Stochastics : Tactical 0.00/6.70 (maximum oversold), Strategic 51.98/65.70 Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (20% probability) : Entry Criteria : AVOID - all technical signals bearish Required Confirmation : DEMA bullish cross + DMI reversal + institutional re-engagement Current Action : Complete avoidance recommended Speculative Only : Maximum 1% account risk if attempting reversal play Neutral Scenario (30% probability) : Range : 2.80-3.20 with declining institutional participation Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for institutional return Risk : 65% volume decline from Q1 peak activity Liquidity : /MNG insufficient volume (13,991) for meaningful sizing Bearish Scenario (50% probability) : Continuation : Further decline toward 2.50-2.70 historical lows Institutional Reality : Smart money disengagement pattern Technical Confirmation : 6.30:1 bearish momentum supports decline Strategy : Complete avoidance until institutional re-engagement 6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 2-3% ALLOCATION Classification : DANGEROUS EXTENSION - Technical Breakdown Confirmed 6E Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bearish crossover (black below orange) ADX : 29.21 (moderate trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 1.19:1 (-DI 29.21 vs +DI 24.49) Extension Risk : 12.1% above YTD POC institutional consensus Stochastics : Tactical 23.24/66.57, Strategic 74.26/90.89 (extremely overbought) Technical Trade Setup : Bullish Scenario (15% probability) : Entry : AVOID - dangerous extension with technical breakdown Existing Positions : Immediate systematic profit-taking required Risk : Overextension + bearish technical = correction imminent Management : Emergency profit-taking protocols engaged Neutral Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels Strategy : Avoid range trading given extension risk Risk Assessment : All signals point to mean reversion Professional Response : Defensive positioning only Bearish Scenario (60% probability) : Target : Return to YTD POC 1.0525 (-12.1% correction) Technical Trigger : DEMA bearish cross + momentum deterioration Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength above 1.1780 Entry : /M6E shorts with tight stops above 1.1820 Risk Control : Maximum 1% account risk given extension 7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 0% ALLOCATION Classification : LIQUIDATION - High Risk Territory GC Execution View: Execution Signal Analysis : DEMA Status : Bearish crossover from distribution highs ADX : 34.91 (declining trend strength) +DI/-DI Ratio : BEARISH 1.31:1 (-DI 34.91 vs +DI 26.64) Extension Risk : 12.2%+ beyond ALL institutional positioning Stochastics : Tactical 11.25/30.89, Strategic 89.46/93.86 (maximum overbought) Technical Trade Setup : Emergency Liquidation Protocol : Immediate Action : Complete liquidation using market orders if necessary Rationale : Void territory + technical breakdown = catastrophic risk No Stops : Emergency exit protocols - immediate execution required Reallocation : Proceeds to YM, NQ, ES primary opportunities immediately Short Opportunity (High Probability) : Strategy : /MGC shorts on any rallies above 2,690 Target : 2,380-2,400 (return to institutional zones) Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control) Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline expected Risk : Maximum 1% account risk for speculative short Portfolio Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Framework Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% account value (1.5% for conflicted signals) Portfolio Heat Limit : 15% total risk across all positions Correlation Controls : Maximum 85% equity exposure given technical alignment Cash Management : 5-10% opportunity fund for technical setups Technical Signal Hierarchy Primary Confirmation : DEMA + DMI + ADX alignment required Entry Timing : Stochastics for tactical positioning optimization Risk Management : Institutional levels for strategic stop placement Profit Taking : Systematic protocol at 2:1, 3:1, trail remainder Market Scenario Analysis Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (70% probability) Characteristics : Technical momentum sustains institutional accumulation Winners : YM, NQ, ES (maximize allocation to 85%) Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections accelerate) Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, complete defensive liquidation Technical Catalyst : ADX strength maintenance + DEMA alignment Scenario B: Technical Consolidation (25% probability) Characteristics : Momentum indicators cool, range-bound trading Management : Reduce position sizes, use stochastics for timing Opportunity : Accumulate on pullbacks to institutional levels Risk Control : Tighter stops, faster profit-taking on strength Technical Signal : ADX decline below 35, stochastics reset Scenario C: Technical Breakdown (5% probability) Trigger : DEMA bearish crosses on primary indices Action : Emergency position reduction protocols Management : Systematic liquidation, increase cash to 25%+ Re-entry : Wait for institutional level retests with technical confirmation Probability : Very low given exceptional institutional backing Weekly Monitoring Checklist Daily Technical Assessment DEMA relationship maintenance across all positions DMI momentum quality and directional bias confirmation Stochastics positioning for entry/exit timing optimization ADX strength validation for trend continuation Risk Management Verification Position sizing within 2% account risk per trade Portfolio heat below 15% total risk exposure Stop loss proximity to institutional support levels Profit-taking discipline at predetermined targets Technical Signal Evolution Cross-asset momentum convergence/divergence analysis Stochastics reset opportunities for position optimization DEMA separation quality for trend strength assessment Institutional level respect vs violation monitoring Key Success Factors Technical Execution Excellence Signal Clarity : Enhanced visual indicators enable precise timing Risk Discipline : Systematic adherence to technical signal hierarchy Momentum Quality : ADX + DMI confirmation prevents false signals Entry Optimization : Dual stochastics for tactical timing precision Institutional Integration Strategic Context : Structure charts provide positioning intelligence Tactical Timing : Execution charts optimize entry/exit precision Risk Management : Institutional levels anchor stop placement Professional Standards : Both frameworks align for optimal decisions Framework Validation Results Primary Opportunities : Perfect technical confirmation of institutional intelligence Risk Identification : Technical signals validate structure chart warnings Professional Execution : Enhanced indicators enable institutional-grade precision Capital Preservation : Systematic risk management across all timeframes Risk Disclaimer : All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Technical analysis and institutional intelligence frameworks are tools for risk assessment and should not be considered guaranteed predictors of future price movement. Position sizing and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions. Document Status : Active execution framework requiring daily technical monitoring and weekly risk assessment updates. Integration with structure analysis mandatory for optimal decision-making. Framework Evolution : Enhanced visual indicators and systematic technical analysis represent significant advancement in execution precision. Continuous optimization based on market regime changes and signal quality assessment required.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by mxb1961
Multi-Asset Market Analysis & Trade IdeasAnalysis Date : September 10, 2025 Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System with Enhanced Volume Profile Analysis Executive Summary Current market analysis reveals exceptional institutional opportunities across equity indices with significant commodity sector divergence. The enhanced institutional intelligence framework identifies unprecedented buying dominance in major equity markets while revealing dangerous extensions in traditional safe-haven assets. Portfolio Allocation Strategy : 75-85% equity allocation with minimal commodity/currency exposure based on institutional positioning intelligence. Primary Opportunities (70-85% Total Allocation) 1. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Institutional Backing YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 26.8:1 buying dominance (6.18M UP vs 230.69K DOWN) Current Position : 23,963 (+3.4% above Q3 POC 23,186) Support Structure : Exceptional multi-quarter institutional foundation Risk Assessment : LOWEST RISK - strongest institutional conviction identified Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (65% probability) : Entry : /MNQ at current levels or any pullback to 23,500-23,600 Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 24,500 (close 50% position) Target 2 : 25,000 (close 25% position) Target 3 : 25,500+ (trail remaining 25%) Stop Loss : 23,000 (below Q3 institutional support) Neutral Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 23,200-24,200 consolidation Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness toward 23,400 Management : Hold core position, trade edges of range Re-evaluation : Weekly basis for breakout confirmation Bearish Scenario (10% probability) : Trigger : Break below 23,000 (institutional support failure) Action : Exit all positions immediately Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence Risk Control : Maximum 2% loss on allocation 2. S&P 500 (ES) - 25-30% ALLOCATION Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Support 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 5.21:1 buying dominance (11.3M UP vs 2.17M DOWN) Current Position : 6,550 (+2.7% above Q3 POC 6,375) Support Structure : Consistent institutional accumulation across quarters Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - exceptional institutional backing Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (70% probability) : Entry : /MES at current levels or pullback to 6,450-6,500 Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 6,650 (close 50% position) Target 2 : 6,750 (close 25% position) Target 3 : 6,850+ (trail remaining 25%) Stop Loss : 6,300 (below Q3 institutional support) Neutral Scenario (20% probability) : Range : 6,400-6,600 consolidation Strategy : Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength Management : Maintain core position size Monitoring : Weekly institutional level respect Bearish Scenario (10% probability) : Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support violation) Action : Systematic position reduction Stop Loss : 6,250 (complete exit level) Re-entry : Wait for institutional re-engagement signals 3. DOW JONES (YM) - 20-25% ALLOCATION Classification : HIGH CONVICTION - YTD POC Validation 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 11.5:1 buying dominance (455.32K UP vs 83.17K DOWN) YTD POC Alignment : Perfect alignment with Q1 POC at 45,150 Current Position : 45,651 (+1.1% above institutional consensus) Risk Assessment : VERY LOW RISK - optimal positioning Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (75% probability) : Entry : /MYM at current levels (optimal positioning confirmed) Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 46,200 (close 40% position) Target 2 : 46,800 (close 30% position) Target 3 : 47,500+ (trail remaining 30%) Stop Loss : 44,800 (below YTD/Q1 POC consensus) Neutral Scenario (20% probability) : Range : 45,000-46,000 consolidation around institutional consensus Strategy : Hold core position, add on dips to 45,200 Management : Optimal risk/reward positioning maintained Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support Bearish Scenario (5% probability) : Trigger : Break below 45,000 (YTD POC violation) Action : Reduce position by 50% Ultimate Stop : 44,500 (complete exit) Assessment : Highly unlikely given institutional validation Secondary Opportunities (15-20% Total Allocation) 4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 15-20% ALLOCATION Classification : SOLID OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Foundation 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : 1.94:1 buying dominance (1.38M UP vs 710.76K DOWN) Current Position : 63.27 (within Q3 institutional accumulation zone) Support Structure : Massive Q2 institutional accumulation at 57.50 Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - multiple institutional support layers Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (60% probability) : Entry : /MCL at current levels or pullback to 62.50-63.00 Position Size : Maximum 2% account risk per position Target 1 : 67.00 (close 50% position) Target 2 : 69.00 (close 25% position) Target 3 : 71.00+ (trail remaining 25%) Stop Loss : 61.50 (below Q3 institutional support) Neutral Scenario (30% probability) : Range : 62.00-65.00 consolidation within institutional zone Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness Management : Patient accumulation approach Support : Strong institutional backing provides downside protection Bearish Scenario (10% probability) : Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure) Action : Exit positions systematically Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support) Risk Management : Tight stops due to support proximity Defensive Positions (8-12% Total Allocation) 5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 8-12% ALLOCATION Classification : MODERATE RISK - Declining Institutional Engagement 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Q3 Volume Analysis : Mixed activity with reduced institutional participation Q1 Peak : 10.6:1 buying dominance (697K UP vs 65K DOWN) - historical high Current Concern : 65% volume decline from Q1 peaks Risk Assessment : MODERATE - institutional disengagement evident Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (45% probability) : Entry : Current levels only with tight risk controls Position Size : Maximum 1.5% account risk per position Target 1 : 3.40 (close 60% position) Target 2 : 3.60 (close remaining 40%) Stop Loss : 2.90 (below Q3 POC support) Neutral Scenario (35% probability) : Range : 3.00-3.20 consolidation Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for re-engagement Management : Maintain defensive positioning Watch : Volume quality for institutional return Bearish Scenario (20% probability) : Trigger : Break below 2.90 (Q3 support failure) Action : Complete position liquidation Assessment : Institutional abandonment acceleration Avoidance : No re-entry until fresh accumulation evidence Risk Management Positions (8-13% Total Allocation) 6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 5-8% ALLOCATION Classification : DEFENSIVE ONLY - Dangerous Extension 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : YTD POC Analysis : 1.0525 (aligned with Q1 POC) Current Position : 1.1769 (+12.9% above institutional consensus) Extension Risk : DANGEROUS - trading far beyond smart money positioning Risk Assessment : HIGH RISK - profit-taking territory Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (25% probability) : Entry : AVOID new long positions Existing Positions : Systematic profit-taking recommended Target : 1.1850 maximum (close all positions) Risk : Overextension beyond institutional support Neutral Scenario (35% probability) : Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels Strategy : Range trading only with tight stops Position Size : Maximum 1% account risk Management : Defensive positioning required Bearish Scenario (40% probability) : Trigger : Any breakdown below 1.1700 Target : Return to institutional consensus (1.0525) Action : Short opportunities on strength Strategy : Mean reversion to YTD POC likely 7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 3-5% ALLOCATION Classification : EXTREME CAUTION - Maximum Extension 3-QTR View: YTD View: Institutional Intelligence : Extension Analysis : 12.2% above all institutional positioning Q2 Peak Activity : 11.5:1 buying dominance at 3,430 levels Current Position : 2,676 (extremely overextended) Risk Assessment : MAXIMUM RISK - correction vulnerability Trade Recommendations : Bullish Scenario (15% probability) : Entry : AVOID all new long positions Existing : Immediate profit-taking recommended Risk : Extreme overextension unsustainable Management : Defensive exit strategy only Neutral Scenario (25% probability) : Range : 2,650-2,700 at unsustainable levels Strategy : No positioning recommended Assessment : Range trading too risky given extension Monitoring : Watch for breakdown signals Bearish Scenario (60% probability) : Target : 3,400-3,500 (return to institutional zones) Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline likely Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength Entry : /MGC shorts on rallies above 2,690 Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control) Target : 3,450 (institutional accumulation zone) Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Framework Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% of account value Maximum Sector Exposure : 6% (energy, metals, currencies) Portfolio Heat : Maximum 15% total risk across all positions Cash Reserve : 5-12% for opportunities and margin requirements Stop Loss Hierarchy Tactical Stops : 2-3 Renko blocks on execution charts Strategic Stops : Below/above institutional POC levels Emergency Stops : Below major quarterly support levels Time Stops : Exit if no progress within 15 trading days Profit Taking Protocol Systematic Approach : Target 1 : Close 40-50% of position at 2:1 risk/reward Target 2 : Close 25-30% of position at 3:1 risk/reward Target 3 : Trail remaining 20-25% with institutional level stops Correlation Management Equity Exposure : Maximum 75-85% combined (NQ+ES+YM) Commodity Exposure : Maximum 25-30% combined (CL+NG) Currency Exposure : Maximum 10% (6E only) Safe Haven Exposure : Maximum 5% (GC defensive only) Market Scenario Planning Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (60% probability) Characteristics : Institutional accumulation continues, economic resilience Winners : NQ, ES, YM (maximize equity allocation) Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections) Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, defensive commodity stance Scenario B: Market Consolidation (25% probability) Characteristics : Range-bound trading around institutional levels Winners : YM (optimal positioning), CL (institutional support) Neutral : NQ, ES (trade ranges) Strategy : Reduce position sizes, focus on institutional level trading Scenario C: Risk-Off Environment (15% probability) Characteristics : Institutional support failure, flight to quality Winners : Cash, defensive positioning Losers : All risk assets Strategy : Emergency protocols, systematic position reduction Trigger : Break below major institutional support levels Weekly Monitoring Checklist Daily Assessment Institutional POC level respect across all markets Volume quality and institutional engagement trends Position sizing within risk parameters Stop loss proximity to institutional levels Weekly Review Portfolio allocation vs. target percentages Risk/reward ratios for all open positions Institutional volume profile evolution Correlation analysis across positions Performance tracking vs. benchmarks Monthly Evaluation Quarterly volume profile updates YTD POC alignment reassessment Strategy performance attribution Risk management protocol effectiveness Market regime change identification Key Success Factors Institutional Intelligence Priority Decision Hierarchy : Institutional volume profile positioning (strategic) YTD POC alignment validation (tactical) Technical indicator confirmation (execution) Risk management protocols (defensive) Discipline Requirements Systematic adherence to position sizing formulas Emotional detachment from individual trade outcomes Institutional level respect over short-term price action Professional risk management with systematic protocols Performance Expectations Win Rate Target : 55-65% (institutional backing advantage) Risk/Reward Minimum : 2:1 average across all trades Maximum Drawdown : <8% of trading capital Consistency : Positive monthly returns 65%+ of time Disclaimer : All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Position sizes and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size and risk tolerance. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Document Status : Active trading framework requiring weekly updates and quarterly reassessment.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by mxb1961
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/11/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 23908.75 - PR Low: 23852.75 - NZ Spread: 125.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - CPI (Core|MoM|YoY) 13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction Temp 25% AMP margins increase for expected pre-RTH news-based volatility spike Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 9/11) - Session Open ATR: 285.32 - Volume: 17K - Open Int: 280K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 24382 - Mid: 23239 - Short: 22096 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
NQ FUTURES IDEA 9/11We are looking to re test the top of 24,000 NQ but first we will fall to 23,752 NQ. I think we trade around this 23,752 range and then start pushing back up to re test 24,000 NQ tomorrow. The Fed debates its next interest rate move, with markets pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week, according to the CME Fed Watch tool. I think this keeps use from pushing lower and i think we see a 50 basis point cut. The only thing that can stop this market is the unemployment rate above 5.3%. I think we get there next year the first quarter.
CME_MINI:NQU2025Short
by ReadyTraderOne702
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 23911.50 - PR Low: 23890.00 - NZ Spread: 48.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | PPI 13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction Temp 25% AMP margins increase for expected pre-RTH news-based volatility spike Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 9/10) - Session Open ATR: 287.29 - Volume: 18K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 24382 - Mid: 23239 - Short: 22096 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025Long
by mv3trader5