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TPAM2026 trade ideas

Palladium’s Bullish Outlook Amidst a Market FakeoutPalladium has emerged as the second strongest precious metal this year, demonstrating notable resilience. Over the past three weeks, however, its price has experienced a retracement, revealing two potential weekly demand zones on the chart. An analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that this pullback is not driven by non-commercial traders, who are actually increasing their positions. This discrepancy suggests that the recent decline may be a false move by the market. Consequently, I am considering placing limit orders within the two identified demand areas to capitalize on a potential rebound. ✅ Please share your thoughts about PA1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
Palladium Crash Incoming; 30%+ Drop ExpectedPalladium is indeed a very small market and hence exhibits very unique and highly predictable COT patterns. When the producers begin to heavily sell after large price rallies, XPD is destined for a fall back down into its intermediate term supply/demand zone. Which in this case represents the $850-$900 range. So a nice 30%+ down swing over the course of several months can be predicted based on previous builds in the NYMEX COT report. There is absolutely ZERO material reason for the PGMs to have staged such a large rally these last few months other then as a liquidity fueled move coupled with massive price divergence with gold. The PGM market could not have worse demand fundamentals, especially for Palladium which is mostly used for automotive use as catalytic converters in gasoline powered vehicles (ICE). With the largest customer of the metal being China who is in a secular economic slowdown, then the US/EU where vehicle prices have exploded. The market is well supplied especially as EVs take over in dominance across Asia and emerging more in western markets which require no such catalytic functions. Market Call: We are scaling into short positions on XPD anticipating a market convergence back to its normally supplied price level of $875/oz.
NYMEX:PA1!Short
by kaotic363
Palladium Futures (PA1!) Approach Key Supply ZonePalladium Futures (PA1!) Approach Key Supply Zone: Is a Reversal Imminent? June 30, 2025 – Palladium Futures (PA1!) opened the new trading week with a bullish candle, reaching a fresh high at 1,161 after last week’s uncertain Doji rejection near 1,193.5. The metal is now approaching a critical supply zone between 1,199 and 1,255, where traders should watch for potential reversals. Key Technical Levels in Play Current Price Action: After a strong push today, PA1! is testing higher levels, but the previous week’s Doji near 1,193.5 suggests hesitation among buyers. Supply Zone (1,199 – 1,255): This area has not acted as resistance previously, and with price nearing it, a pullback or reversal could be in play. Daily & Weekly Timeframes: The daily chart shows steady bullish momentum, but the weekly reveals a bearish divergence in Non-Commercial (smart money) positions—raising caution. COT Report Signals Warning Signs The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals interesting dynamics: Commercials (Hedgers): At their lowest levels since February, suggesting producers are hedging aggressively at these prices. Non-Commercials (Large Speculators): Still holding elevated positions but showing divergence—price is rising while their net-long exposure weakens. Retail Traders: Remain bullish, which often acts as a contrarian signal when combined with Commercial hedging. What’s Next for Palladium? Given the confluence of factors: Supply Zone Resistance (1,199 – 1,255): A logical area for profit-taking or short entries. Bearish Divergence in Non-Commercials: Suggests weakening bullish conviction. Commercials Hedging at Highs: Indicates potential downside ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about CL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:PA1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
Important changes in the market today1.10.25 days like today are exciting days because are significant markets that are expanding. even though you may miss some opportunities or the markets appear to treacherous to you... such as the copper Marketeven if you don't take a trade today the market is going to give you an opportunity as a buyer and a seller depending on your Market and if you didn't establish a trade position today don't worry about it because this Market is going to give opportunity to buyers and sellers because it's expanded. I try to show a couple of examples in this video where I gave my opinion on previous days that copper was setting up to go higher.... and I would hope that you would look at the previous video on copper and look at what copper is doing today. generally the best trades are on markets where the price action looks to risky for the Trader that doesn't know how to read for Price action... or even worse... the market looks like a no-brainer trade to the trader who does not know why his not only wrong but he completely assess the pattern incorrectly. I have done that many times in my life I discovered that that kind of thinking is too expensive.... so I had to find tutors and I read... or at least bought many books.... I even went to a practicing well-trained psychologists who specialized in helping Traders... he claimed that he helped some of the most successful traders in the United States. he was about $300 an hour. there is a price to pay for an education. by the way and this is some years ago... the advice that I got from that psychologists ended up being useful but that's psychologist didn't want to see my charts and apparently he was a successful Traders well and I never saw his charts..... and that probably would seem unusual to most people.....the bed actually in the end I was okay with the experience the contracted for 10 sessions and I have no regrets.
NYMEX:PA1!
by ScottBogatin
PALLADIUM | XPDUSD: Prepare to SELL!Over the next couple of weeks, be ready to sell Palladium on the pullback! This is a ERL to IRL to ERL move in the making! Don't miss it! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:PA1!
by RT_Money
3
This could be the lowLooking at the RUS:PD1! contract: After completing the three impulse waves (1, 3, 5) upward, Palladium futures entered a steep downward correction, reaching the final Fibonacci level (76.4%). It appears that the price is now forming the first green daily candle in a long time. With an upward-pointing elliptical trendline, this could mark the low. We’ll need to wait for confirmation in the coming trading days. Additionally, Palladium’s bullish seasonality is set to begin soon, suggesting a potentially strong end to the year. Let’s see how it unfolds!
RUS:PD1!Long
by p4917
Palladium: Analyzing the Recent Surge in PricesSince the beginning of August 2024, Palladium has experienced a notable surge in value, reaching approximately $1,250 today. This strong bullish rally signals renewed interest in the precious metal, driven by various market dynamics. However, as the price approaches a critical supply area, traders must exercise caution and prepare for potential market reversals. Price Movement and Historical Context The recent price increase in Palladium has not gone unnoticed, and it coincides with a historical trend. Over the past five years, data shows that Palladium has typically encountered a reversal in value around this time of year. This historical pattern serves as a vital reference point for traders considering their next moves. Evaluating Supply Areas and Potential Reversals As Palladium nears a significant supply area, it becomes essential to analyze price action carefully. Before contemplating any short positions, it is prudent to wait for a clear bearish pattern to emerge. This approach minimizes the risk of entering prematurely, particularly in a market characterized by bullish momentum. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals contrasting positions among market participants. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions, indicating optimism regarding Palladium's future performance. Conversely, "smart money" or institutional investors have begun to build bearish positions, suggesting that they anticipate a potential downturn. This divergence in sentiment may create a volatile environment as both sides adjust their strategies. The Importance of Patience In the current landscape, patience is crucial. Rushing into trades without solid confirmation can lead to unfavorable outcomes. By waiting for a clear bearish signal, traders can better position themselves for potential market reversals. This disciplined approach aligns with the principles of risk management and enhances the chances of executing successful trades. Conclusion In summary, Palladium's recent rally to $1,250 places it at a critical juncture. As it approaches a historically significant supply area, traders must remain vigilant and analytical. Observing the emergence of a bearish pattern, coupled with insights from the COT report, will be essential in determining the appropriate timing for any potential short positions. With patience and a strategic mindset, traders can navigate the current market conditions effectively. What are your thoughts on Palladium's trajectory, and how do you plan to position yourself in this evolving landscape? ✅ Please share your thoughts about PA1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:PA1!
by FOREXN1
5
Ducks in A Barrel Long Setups - BTC, SOL, TON & PADISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This for educational purposes only to show how I am looking to participate in these markets. Trading involves significant risk, do your own homework and due diligence. Ducks in a Barrel Weekly-Daily Strategy LONGS: BTC, SOL, TON SHORT: PA LONGS: The crypto market is overall in a strong up trend based on weekly MA's sloping up. We see that BTC, SOL & TON are undervalued vs the price of Gold and Treasuries, and are oversold on stochastic. If we see a trend change to the upside on the Daily chart, I'll look to long these markets. I admit, I'd like to see sentiment more bearish, as currently sentiment is in the middle of the road. Perhaps one more flush to the downside would create some panic and bearish sentiment, which would make this trade idea even more valid. SHORTS: Palladium is in a strong weekly downtrend. Right now we are overvalued vs treasuries, but not yet overvalued vs gold or overbought. I'd like to see this market get overbought & overvalued vs gold to qualify looking for shorts on the daily time frame. Good luck & Good trading.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Palladium is breaking out of the long-term downtrendTechnical Analysis of Palladium: Palladium may now be in the process of establishing a bottom after a sharp decline from around USD 3,000 to today around USD 1,000. Solid technical support has been established for Palladium around USD 850, and on the upside there is an important technical resistance level around USD 1,120. An established break above USD 1,120 will trigger a strong technical buy signal for Palladium, which will then have the potential to initially reach USD 1,350, which will then be the next important technical resistance level. Further up, there is an important technical resistance level around USD 1,600. Palladium has now broken above the 50-day moving average, and is also about to break above the 200-day moving average. The overall technical picture for Palladium now signals that a break above the important technical resistance level around USD 1,120 could come shortly. In that case, it will trigger a strong technical buy signal for Palladium, which is then considered to have a potential of around USD 1,600 in the 3-6 month term.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by StockCharts365
PA1!: K.O. or bear-trap Round 2?With rate cut questions fueled by the West's bumbling towards another Mid-East war, palladium bears have returned the recent pump to sender with a vengeance. Factor in more EVs and the future for the PGMs looks bleak, right? But a closer look suggests not is all as it seems for these precious metals with their unique properties. A recent Reuters article from December 2023 revealed that Russian and Chinese scientists with government backing "have been conducting semi-industrial tests of palladium-based catalysts for the hydrogen industry's water electrolysis and fuel cell technology," with the tests "due to be completed in the first quarter of 2024." With Russia being the largest miner of palladium and China the biggest importer, these new "products could add 40 metric tons of global demand for palladium by 2030, offsetting a surplus of 10-20 tons owing to the expected reduction in consumption by the automotive industry by the same year". Furthermore, tests of these new "palladium-based catalysts for the chemicals industry will start in the second quarter" of 2024 with focus also on the "development of a palladium-based photocell..for the solar power sector." (source: www.reuters.com) Add to this equation massive US investment in a hydrogen economy as evidenced by the number of projects presenting at CES '24 and PA1! is worth keeping an eye on. (Disclaimer: Any and all ideas and or comments published by me is not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.)
NYMEX:PA1!
by R0llins_