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TPL2! trade ideas

PL1!1️⃣ Trend & Structure Long-Term Breakout: After years of sideways consolidation between roughly $850–$1,200, Platinum has broken above the long-term moving averages (MA ribbon and 200-month black MA), signaling a strong structural breakout. Momentum Shift: The recent monthly candles show strong bullish follow-through, indicating renewed institutional interest. 2️⃣ Key Price Zones Perfect Buy Zone: $1,170 – $1,070 Highlighted in yellow, this area represents a strong historical demand/support zone and an ideal pullback entry for swing or position traders. First Target: $1,643 – $1,692 Marked in purple, this is the next major resistance cluster where price may encounter selling pressure or consolidate. 3️⃣ Support & Stop Loss Primary Support: The breakout area around $1,150 – $1,170 now acts as the first layer of support. Defensive Stop: The chart suggests a wider stop loss around $850, which is below the long-term base and protects against a full breakdown of the bullish setup. 4️⃣ Moving Averages & Indicators MA Ribbon Alignment: Short- to mid-term moving averages (20, 50, 70, 89) have turned upward and are stacking bullishly above the 200-month MA, which is a classic long-term buy signal. Volume (not shown): Sustained volume on the breakout would further confirm institutional buying. 5️⃣ Trading Scenarios Bullish Base Case: A pullback toward $1,170 – $1,070 offers a favorable risk–reward entry for a run toward $1,643 – $1,692. A monthly close above $1,700 would open the door for extended gains toward the psychological $1,900–$2,000 zone. Bearish Risk: A decisive close below $1,070 would weaken the breakout thesis. A drop below $850 invalidates the bullish structure entirely. 📊 Summary Platinum Futures have shifted from a multi-year consolidation to a confirmed long-term bullish trend. The breakout above key moving averages strengthens the technical case for upside toward the $1,650 area, with a preferred accumulation zone on any retracement to $1,170–$1,070 and a protective stop near $850.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by IbrahimTarek
1
Short PL1!📌 When is Platinum in High Demand & How Does It Cycle? Platinum is one of the rarest and most versatile precious metals. Historically used in jewelry and luxury goods, it is now essential in the automotive industry (catalytic converters), medical devices, electronics, and even green hydrogen technologies. Platinum futures (traded on CME Globex, physically settled) give investors direct exposure to this volatile metal. Unlike gold, platinum has been a historically weaker performer over decades, but it offers unique diversification benefits and short-term trading opportunities due to its cyclical demand patterns and volatility. 🔹 1. When is Platinum Demand Highest? (Bullish for Platinum Prices & PPLT ETF) ✅ Q4–Q2 (November – May) → Winter & Spring Strength Platinum futures often outperform in winter and spring months. Demand rises ahead of new vehicle production cycles (car companies restock catalytic converters). Jewelry demand also peaks around holiday and wedding seasons (Q4–Q1). 📌 Example: Between January and April 2021, platinum surged nearly 30% as automakers scrambled to secure supply after COVID-related shortages. ❌ Q3 (June – September) → Seasonal Weakness Historically, platinum underperforms in summer/fall. Jewelry demand slows, and auto sector production eases. Risk-off market environments often shift capital back into gold instead of platinum. 📌 Example: In summer 2018, platinum fell below $800/oz (a 15-year low) despite broader metals strength. ✅ Year-Round Demand Drivers 1️⃣ Automotive Industry – Over 40% of platinum is used in catalytic converters. Auto demand = platinum demand. 2️⃣ Industrial Applications – Electronics, petroleum refining, medical devices, and hydrogen fuel cells. 3️⃣ Jewelry & Luxury Goods – Peak in winter/spring seasons, especially in China, India, and Japan. 4️⃣ Investment Flows – Platinum ETFs like PPLT attract safe-haven and diversification investors. 5️⃣ Supply Shocks – Over 70% of platinum comes from South Africa. Strikes, power shortages, or mine closures can spike prices. 🔹 2. Platinum Futures Seasonal & International Rotation Platinum has fewer “geographic harvest” cycles than commodities like corn but exhibits industrial seasonality tied to global auto production, jewelry buying, and investment flows: Month Seasonal Driver Trade Focus Jan–Feb Jewelry & auto restocking demand Long Platinum Futures (PL), Long PPLT Mar–Apr Industrial production peak Long platinum miners (SBSW, IMPUY) May–Jun Strength carries into spring Hold platinum futures, ETFs Jul–Aug Seasonal weakness Rotate into gold (GLD) or palladium Sep–Oct Weak demand period Avoid longs, watch for oversold bounces Nov–Dec Holiday jewelry + auto planning Long PL, PPLT, platinum jewelers (TIF, luxury plays) 📌 Example: EquityClock data shows platinum’s strongest performance window historically runs from January 1 → May 5, with average returns outpacing other periods. 🔹 3. Platinum Futures & ETF Trading Strategies 📈 Strategy #1: Seasonal Strength (Winter/Spring Bias) Buy platinum futures (PL) in December–January. Hold through April–May, when industrial and jewelry demand is strongest. Exit before summer weakness. 📈 Strategy #2: Platinum-Gold Ratio (Relative Value Trade) Platinum is traditionally more expensive than gold (“rich man’s metal”). When the Platinum-to-Gold ratio falls below 0.5, platinum is undervalued. Trade idea: Long PL / Short GC when ratio < 0.5; exit when ratio normalizes. 📌 Example: 2020 → Platinum was trading at half the price of gold → relative value longs returned double-digit gains. 📈 Strategy #3: Auto Industry Hedge Since catalytic converters are a core use, platinum often follows auto sales trends. When auto demand rises (Tesla, Toyota, GM production ramps), platinum futures typically rise. Pair trade: Long PL, Short Palladium (if platinum demand substitution rises due to palladium shortages). 🔹 4. Platinum Investment Vehicles Platinum Futures (CME: PL) – Physically settled, high liquidity, leveraged exposure. ETFs: PPLT (Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum ETF) → Direct platinum exposure. PGM (ETFS Physical Platinum Shares). Mining Stocks: Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) → Major South African platinum miner. Impala Platinum (IMPUY) → One of the largest global producers. Anglo American Platinum (ANGPY) → Diversified platinum group metals. 📌 Best Time to Buy: Winter & Spring (Nov–May) when seasonal demand peaks. 📌 Conclusion: Best Platinum Trading Strategy ✅ Seasonality Play: Buy platinum futures or PPLT ETF in winter/spring (Nov–May) → strongest historical performance. ✅ Relative Value Play: Use Platinum/Gold ratio to find undervaluation entry points. ✅ Diversification Benefit: Platinum often behaves differently from gold/silver, making it a hedge in commodity portfolios. ✅ Industrial Demand Edge: Watch auto production cycles, green hydrogen policies, and South African supply risks. Platinum may not be the long-term outperformer that gold is, but it offers short-term trading edges, seasonal opportunities, and diversification benefits that can strengthen a commodities rotation portfolio.
NYMEX:PL1!Short
by GabrielAmadeusLau
1
Platinum rally runs out of steam as nearterm outlook tilts shortThe Rally That Looked Unstoppable Through the spring and into early summer, platinum looked like it had finally broken free of its long-standing range. From April to late June, prices surged over 36% to hit 11-year highs above $1,500/oz. The move was powered by a perfect storm of short-term drivers. China was the first spark. In April and May, imports jumped to the strongest monthly volumes in a year, driven by a rebound in jewellery demand and the kind of bargain-hunting Chinese buyers are known for when a metal is still “out of favour.” Source: Bloomberg In recent years, China’s surplus platinum build has steadily removed metal from the global pool, tightening availability elsewhere. The smaller 2025 figure reflects data only through June, which, if annualised, is on pace with prior years. The physical pull was also amplified by U.S. tariff fears. Although platinum was eventually spared from the April tariff list, the initial uncertainty yanked metal into NYMEX warehouses, draining those of London and Zurich. Source: Bloomberg This created localised tightness and premiums, spiking lease rates to levels not seen in years. Even after easing from July’s extreme of over 35%, the implied one-month rate is holding above 10%, a far cry from the near-zero levels typical in stable conditions. Rates at this level reflect a market where physical metal is scarce and owners are demanding substantial compensation to lend it out. Source: Bloomberg At the same time, South Africa, the source of nearly three-quarters of global mined platinum, was struggling through weather damage, power grid instability, and refinery bottlenecks. Q1 output slid to 715,000 ounces from 1.16 million ounces a year earlier, a 38% decline YoY. Even U.S. policy gave a boost. On July 4, a bill ending EV subsidies and relaxing emission penalties was signed, effectively making internal combustion engines (ICE) more attractive near-term. Automakers stockpiled catalytic converter metal ahead of the change, adding another layer to already feverish demand. When the Fuel Runs Low But the same factors that propelled the rally are now starting to lose their force. Chinese physical buying has slowed sharply since prices broke above roughly $1,050/oz. The country’s import pullback leaves the market without its most aggressive marginal buyer, and without a fresh demand impulse, prices have begun to drift. The tariff-driven warehouse reshuffle has also cooled. Lease rates remain elevated versus normal, but they’ve fallen from the panic highs of June. The term structure is less steep, and options skew, which blew out during the rally, has moderated. In past cycles, those reversals have lined up with corrections. South African supply is staging a recovery in H2, with the worst of the weather and maintenance disruptions behind it. Meanwhile, the July auto catalyst stockpiling in the U.S. was always going to be front-loaded. Without a sustained change in global policy, the longer-term trend of muted ICE vehicle demand still hangs over platinum’s largest use-case. Source: Sprott Even investor enthusiasm is showing cracks. ETF holdings in North America had been climbing through the rally but have turned patchy in recent weeks. Several funds saw profit-taking, leaving futures traders without an investment-flow tailwind to fall back on. Deficits Without Danger The World Platinum Investment Council’s Q1 update still projects a large market deficit for 2025, between half a million and nearly a million ounces. But deficits don’t bite the same way when there’s a stockpile buffer. Above-ground inventories remain around 9 million ounces, equivalent to roughly 14 months of demand. That is more than enough to bleed into the market when tightness indicators flare, taking the sting out of the “shortage” narrative. There’s also a price-risk valve in the form of palladium. The auto industry has flexibility in catalyst metal choice, and a platinum premium over palladium approaching 30% would tempt manufacturers to reverse-substitute away from platinum. Why the Balance Now Tilts Short The rally’s foundation, which is a combination of China’s aggressive buying, microstructure stress, and front-loaded industrial demand, is now eroding. Technicals confirm the shift: momentum indicators like RSI are rolling over, with platinum trading below the 9-day moving average for the first time since the rally began: Term structure and skew are normalising, lease rates are easing, and the physical market is no longer under siege. That doesn’t mean platinum can’t spike on a headline; this market has a history of violent squeezes. But in the absence of a new catalyst, the path of least resistance near-term is lower. Any bounce into resistance offers an opportunity to build a short, with stops placed to respect the risk of sudden microstructure shocks. The bullish story that carried platinum to multi-year highs was compelling because every driver pointed the same way. Now, most of them are pointing the other. That is when short setups work best; not by betting against strength, but by recognising when the strength itself is running out of air. Hypothetical Trade Set-up With October platinum futures consolidating after an 11% drop from the July peak and failing to break decisively above $1,360, fading physical tightness and softening demand momentum set up a tactical short. Traders can deploy CME Platinum PLV2025 Futures to express this view. Each contract requires margin of $5000. Alternatively, traders could deploy the micro platinum futures which provide exposure to 1/10th the notional of the standard contract. Entry : $1,340/oz (current price) Target : $1,296/oz (recent swing low) Stop Loss : $1,370/oz (recent pivot resistance) Profit at Target: Contract size: 50 troy ounces Price move: $1,340 – $1,296 = $44 $44 × 50 oz = $2,200 per contract Loss at Stop: Price move: $1,370 – $1,340 = $30 $30 × 50 oz = $1,500 per contract Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.47× MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:PLV2025Short
by mintdotfinance
2
Platinum: Breaking the Supply Barrier?I'm adding a second Platinum position. Price has hit a strong weekly supply area, also a significant monthly supply zone. I'm anticipating a reversal here, as non-commercial holdings are decreasing, and seasonal patterns suggest a potential trend change. To further capitalize on potential upside, I've placed a pending order above the primary supply zone, at a slightly higher, but still relevant. These are older, established and fresh supply zones. (Note: Reducing the chart size may help to better visualize the long-term significance of these overlapping areas.) ✅ Please share your thoughts about PL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:PL1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
From Sweep to Slaughter, Bear Setup EngagedOk a little late but I saw this and thought I'd share. Price has swept liquidity above the prior range high and failed to close strong. Structure is now rejecting under micro trend EMAs, breaking the local trend line and forming a short-term bearish momentum bias into the IFV zone. This is a short-term bearish play following a liquidity sweep at key highs targeting rebalancing zones below while the broader uptrend remains intact. Setup Breakdown: Entry: 1440.3 SL: 1486.0 TP1: 1390.0 TP2: 1360.0 RRR: 2.3 (TP1) / 3.7 (TP2) Confluence Stack: Liquidity Sweep confirmed rejection from upper QPOI (1450–1480). Breaker Block Formed, post-sweep, price lost momentum and slipped below Micro Trend (EMA9). The Structure Guard has broken the 21 EMA and diagonal trend line now acting as dynamic resistance. IFV Zone is unfilled there is a clean inefficiency still open below with a high-probability magnet zone. Defined invalidation above swept highs, preserving capital integrity Labels Used: Liquidity Sweep – Engineered exit at top-side trap Micro Trend – 9EMA, broken with momentum Structure Guard – 21EMA + trend line intersection, acting as a flip zone IFV Zone – Target area for rebalancing and fair value return Price Inefficiency Zone – Swing support for a extreme retest This setup aligns with typical post-sweep reversal behaviour seen in thin commodity books. Short into structure with clearly defined risk, targeting the inefficiencies below. If TP1 breaks cleanly, runners to TP2 offer major extension potential into institutional rebalance levels. What I'm Watching: EMA resistance holding = active setup Daily close below 1390 = continuation confirmation Aggressive shorts could trail stop once 1410 is lost intraday Staakd Rating: Edge: ★★★★☆ Risk Profile: Moderate Setup Type: Liquidity Reversal > IFV Rebalancing Running this short? Scaling in from lower TFs? Let’s compare triggers drop your setups.
NYMEX:PL1!Short
by stakkd
Platinum Market Alert: One-Day Reversal in Play On Friday, the platinum market printed a key day reversal — a classic signal that a short-term correction may be underway. 🔍 In our analysis posted Thursday, we highlighted the 55-hour moving average as good place to place a stop level in a runaway market. Fast forward to now: that level has been decisively broken, along with a drop below the cloud on the hourly chart. ⚠️ This breakdown increases the probability of a near-term correction. Stay sharp. Manage your risk. Markets are talking — hope that you are listening! Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NYMEX:PL1!
by The_STA
"Runaway Market? Here’s Where to Put Your Stop"Today we’re diving into what to do with your stops in a runaway market 🚀📈 Just 4 days ago, we talked about the platinum market breaking higher — and wow, what a move it’s made since then. So, the big question is: 👉 Where do you place your stops now? Here’s my approach: 🔍 First, I check the long-term time frame. We're heading toward 1348 — that’s the 2021 high, and likely a profit-taking level. 📉 Then I drop into shorter time frames — hourly, 30-min, 15-min, even 5-min if needed. I’m currently eyeing the hourly chart, where the 55-hour moving average (green line) has done a solid job supporting the rally. It's sitting at 1227 — a reasonable area to consider for a stop, especially with little other support nearby. Hope this helps! Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by The_STA
Just in Case Still Believe that Silver Will Outperfom Platinum..Platinum is still severely undervalues when compared to both Gold and Silver...If you still think Silver will move as much as Platinum in this Bull market, there is a very high probability that you will be wrong...most people think that Silver will outperform...and most people are always wrong...only a small percentage of people are right...and they will have a lot of wealth...there are more poor people than wealthy...that is how the world works...You are being brainwashed.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by GoldAddict
Platinum Futures Break Major Long-Term Down trendsToday, we're analysing Platinum Futures – and the market is showing some major technical shifts. On the weekly chart, we’ve seen a sharp rise, pushing prices to new 3-year highs. Switching to the monthly chart, the picture gets even more compelling: 🔹 We've broken above two significant long-term downtrends — one dating back to 2008, and another from 2011. 🔹 The price has now hit the 200-month moving average at 1155. A close above this level could confirm a powerful breakout. 🔹 The measured upside target? A potential move to 1826, based on the 2020–2021 range. In the short-to-medium term, keep an eye on these levels: ✅ Resistance at 1100 and 1348 (Feb 2021 high) 🛡️ Support ideally holds above 1081–1045 to maintain bullish momentum 📊 This is shaping up to be an exciting market with long-term potential. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by The_STA
I cant believe Platinum is still this cheap vs goldPlatinum could hit its all-time high of ~$2,400/oz in 5-10 years if things line up. South Africa’s mines are struggling, so supply is tight. Demand is growing for platinum in green hydrogen tech and car parts, especially with big global investments. Plus, with U.S. debt soaring and the dollar looking shaky, people might turn to platinum like they do gold and silver to protect their money. If electric vehicles don’t cut demand too much and the economy stays decent, platinum could soar to $2,400 by 2030-2035. Im long a bunch, and will sell portion along the way up to get my basis out and ride the rest for free. Like if you agree!
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by ValuePig
1