DXY Top-Down Analysis: Market Structure & Directional Bias This video demonstrates a top-down analysis of DXY. I'll show you how to identify market structure, value areas, directional bias, and key support and resistance levels. You'll learn to analyze the market from weekly to hourly timeframes using Heikin-Ashi candles and the 200 EMA.
DXY trade ideas
the retail trader outlookWe see that the wedge pattern has been completed and the bullish market is strong as the candles a huge, this is a high risk low reward trade as it clear and obvious to the vest public that the markets wants to rally. the role of the dollar price plays a vital role in this not happening as we see that the dollar has formed the yearly low as is starting to move up in an increasingly high speed suggesting that Gold is more likely to be affected by the sudden Rally in the dollar currency and the opposite is true given a drop in dollar.
DXYThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on July 30, 2025, that it will maintain the federal funds rate at the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This keeps the rate unchanged from previous meetings, continuing a "wait-and-see" approach amid mixed economic signals. The decision was supported by a 9-2 vote. The committee highlighted that recent data suggests economic activity growth has moderated in the first half of the year, with low unemployment and somewhat elevated inflation. The FOMC indicated it would carefully assess incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks before making further adjustments. There is no rate cut at this meeting, but the Fed remains attentive to risks on both sides of its dual mandate of maximizing employment and achieving inflation around 2%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for additional data, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, before changing policy. The economy showed stronger-than-expected second-quarter growth, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, contributing to the decision to hold rates steady. The committee's stance reflects caution despite pressure from political sources to cut rates.
The next FOMC meeting after this one will be in September 2025, and some economists predict a possible rate cut then depending on economic developments. Powell's press conference and the FOMC statement will be closely analyzed for any subtle shifts in policy tone or outlook.
In summary:
Federal funds rate maintained at 4.25% - 4.50%
Economic growth moderated but remains solid
Low unemployment, inflation somewhat elevated
Fed is data-dependent and cautious
No rate cut for now but possible in September
This is consistent with the ongoing approach since late 2024 of holding rates steady to balance inflation control and support for the labor market.
DXY has finally arrived at our final POI. What next?DXY has finally arrived at a point I marked out for you since. I called it out and I was called a madman.
We may experience some downwards pressure and it already started during the Asian session. We have to wait for further confirmation to know if it wants to continue the bullish movement or fall.
Let's be patient for now.
Decision Zone for DXY This Week: Around 97.600After a significant downward expansion in DXY, we observed a consolidation around last week's low. This week, the market opened with a pullback.
The first stop for this pullback appears to be the current daily fractal high candle and the weekly bearish FVG on the chart. We can assess potential selling pressure from this area on lower timeframes. We'll be monitoring the wicks within this zone, along with any newly forming FVGs.
If the price breaks above this area, our next points of interest will be the gaps within the zone above the 0.5 swing level, and ultimately the swing high itself as the final target.
Given the current setup, we believe there are promising trading opportunities on EURUSD.
Take care until the next update!
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Pro Analysis | 1H Chart |1. Strong Bullish Momentum
DXY broke out sharply above the 99.41 resistance, showing clear strength from bulls with minimal pullbacks during the rally.
2. Short-Term Rejection at Supply
Price was rejected from the 99.978 zone — a key supply area. This indicates the presence of active sellers near the psychological 100 level.
3. Retesting Breakout Structure
Currently hovering just above 99.669, the DXY is retesting the previous breakout level. This could act as short-term support if bullish momentum resumes.
4. Next Key Zones
Resistance: 99.978 → 100.534
Support: 99.411 → 98.92
Break below 99.411 may invalidate the breakout.
5. Outlook
Bias remains bullish above 99.41. However, failure to reclaim 99.978 soon may signal temporary exhaustion or consolidation before next leg up.
USD Dollar Index (DXY): Pushing Higher As Forecast!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 30 - Aug1
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
USD Index
In my last USD video, the forecast was for higher prices. Check the related links below to see that video forecast. It played out exactly as analyzed. The +FVG was used to push for higher prices. The FOMC decision to keep the rate unchanged only pushed it further along.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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DXY with interest rates With interest rates remaining steady, the U.S. Dollar is currently moving in a bullish direction.
As shown in the chart, it seems likely that price will break the previous high and form a bullish Quasimodo (QM) pattern. The price may then reach the 50% Fibonacci level.
After that, we should wait and observe the market's reaction.
If price gets rejected from the 103 zone — especially if accompanied by a rate cut or bearish price action — we could see a sharp decline toward the 95 area.
This 95 zone also aligns with a key weekly Fibonacci support level on the Dollar Index.
As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, the U.S. Dollar may continue its upward momentum. However, the 103–104 zone — which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a significant supply area — could serve as a strong resistance.
If price gets rejected from this area and we simultaneously see signs of a rate cut or weakening U.S. economic data, a trend reversal and corrective phase could begin. In that case, lower targets around 95 or even 93 could become likely in the medium term.
good luck
DXY Bulls Ready — Can Powell Spark the Rally?📊 DXY Pre-FOMC Outlook
In my previous analysis released on Monday, I expected the Dollar Index to fill the gap around the 98.60 zone and range below the key red line at 99.429.
Now, with less than 8 hours left until the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision, it’s time to take a closer look at tonight’s event and what it could mean for the markets.
From a purely technical perspective — setting the news aside — the Dollar Index looks ready to break through the crucial 100 level and kick off a strong bullish rally.
However, recent political pressure from Trump urging rate cuts, along with visible tension between him and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has created uncertainty. If it weren’t for these conflicting signals, I would’ve confidently expected a clean breakout above 100.
As much as I enjoy trading news-driven events, I’ll likely stay out of the market tonight and observe from the sidelines. The setup is tempting, but the dual narratives make it risky.
That said — if you ask for my final take — I believe the stage is fully set for a bullish dollar and a corresponding drop in gold, EUR, GBP, and other major assets.
Let’s see how it plays out. 👀💥
DXY BEARISH TREND 30-JUL 15-JUN 2025There are some major upcoming events that could significantly impact the US dollar index (DXY), including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the Federal Funds Rate decision. Because of this, I expect the DXY to continue its downward movement until it reaches around 94.5. If it breaks below that level, it’s also possible that it could drop further and reach 89.00.
Currently, the DXY is expected to start its move downward from the 99.20–99.50 range, making a decline from that level quite likely
DXY still in downward channel. Rejection here = BTC rally The DXY is still in a downward sloping channel and trying to break back above the previous 2-year cycle low, but I think will reject here and kick off the next leg of the BTC rally.
Ideally we get a big DXY drop and ultimately break below the 95% level and on down into 'Bitcoin Super Rally Zone'🚀
DOLLAR INDEX DXYThe latest U.S. economic data released on July 30, 2025 shows:
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Actual increase of 104,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 77,000. This marks a strong rebound from the previous decline of -23,000 in June and indicates solid labor market momentum, particularly in services sectors like leisure/hospitality, financial activities, and trade/transportation. However, education and health services saw job losses. Wage growth remains steady at 4.4% year-over-year for job-stayers.
Advance GDP q/q Growth: Actual growth came in at 3.0%, beating the forecast of 2.5% and improving sharply from -0.5% previously. This suggests that the economy is expanding robustly in the second quarter
Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Inflation measure): Actual was 2.0%, slightly below the forecast of 2.2%, and down from 3.8% previously, indicating easing inflation pressures .
Interpretation of this data for Federal Reserve policy:
The stronger-than-expected job growth and GDP expansion signal a resilient economy, which may reduce the immediate likelihood of Fed rate cuts, as these indicators support sustained economic momentum.
The slightly softer inflation reading on the GDP Price Index suggests inflation pressures are continuing to moderate, which could offer some flexibility to the Fed.
Overall, the Fed is likely to view this data mix as supportive of a cautious, data-dependent approach, possibly maintaining current rates in the short term without rushing to cut, but monitoring to ensure inflation stays on a downward path.
If the Fed prioritizes strong growth and a resilient labor market, rate hikes or holds are more likely than cuts. If inflation remains subdued, it could permit a gradual easing down the line but probably not immediately.
Let me know if you want a detailed outlook on market reactions to this release or the potential Fed communication following today’s data.
#GOLD
Just a bounce off or a real trend reversal?DXY sits on a major support zone. Price often delivers a reflex bounce at strong levels before continuing the prevailing trend, so a quick pop isn’t proof of a new bull run. DXY is closely linked to US real yields (10y TIPS): if real yields roll over as the Fed eases, USD strength likely fades; if real yields stay firm, a durable reversal is more plausible.
This post is for informational/educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. I may hold positions related to the instruments mentioned.
DXY UPDATE FOR LONG as we forecast a long term this an update
The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.22% and posted a 5-week high. The dollar has carryover support from Monday following the EU-US trade deal that is seen as favoring the US. Also, expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of Wednesday's 2-day FOMC meeting are supportive of the dollar. The dollar extended its gains after the US Jun advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly shrank, a supportive factor for Q2 GDP, and after July consumer confidence rose more than expected.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis – 1H TimeframeUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis – 1H Timeframe
This chart shows the **US Dollar Index (DXY)** with key price zones, trendlines, and EMA indicators. Here's a detailed analysis:
**Key Observations:**
* **Price:** Currently trading near **98.41**
* **EMAs:**
* **EMA 7** = 98.373 (short-term trend)
* **EMA 21** = 98.356 (medium-term trend)
* **Trendline:** Uptrend line still intact, acting as dynamic support
* **Volume:** Steady, no strong breakout yet
* **Support Zones:** 98.20 – 98.35
* **Price Structure:** Consolidating above support and EMAs after a pullback from highs
**Bullish Scenario**
* If price **holds above EMAs and the green support zone (98.20–98.35)**
* **Breakout above 98.50** would confirm strength
* Targets:
→ **98.70**
→ **99.00+** if trendline support continues to hold
* EMAs are aligned bullishly (7 above 21) – good sign for continued upward trend
**Bearish Scenario**
* If price **breaks below 98.20 and closes under the trendline**
* Watch for rejection near 98.50 followed by strong red candle
* Downside targets:
→ **97.80**
→ **97.60**
* A breakdown below the ascending trendline = trend shift confirmation
**Conclusion**
* **Bias:** Bullish as long as DXY stays above 98.20 and trendline
* **Invalidation:** A break and close below 98.20 + trendline = bearish shift
DXY: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 98.471 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart Analysis
**Current Trend:** Bearish
Price trades below EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud, and within a bearish channel.
#**Bearish Scenario (Favorable)**
* **Conditions:**
* Price remains below EMA 7 & 21
* Stays under Ichimoku Cloud and 96.812 resistance (R1)
* Lower lows forming, bearish momentum increasing
* **Confirmation:**
Break below **96.37 (blue zone)**
* **Target:**
* TP1: 96.00
* TP2: 95.60 (next weak support)
**Bullish Scenario (Reversal)**
* **Conditions:**
* Price must break above **96.81 (EMA 7 + resistance)**
* Break above **R1 → 96.90**, and then above **R2 → 97.14–97.19**
* Bullish candles close above the Ichimoku cloud
* **Confirmation:**
Break and retest of **97.20**
* **Target:**
* TP1: 97.39
* TP2: 97.58 (key structure)
* TP3: 98.00 (major resistance)
**Bias:** Bearish unless DXY breaks above **97.20** with strong volume and bullish structure.
DXY Chart Outlook: Trend, Support, and Price Objectives**DXY Chart Outlook: Trend, Support, and Price Objectives (Reworded Analysis)**
**Trend Overview**
* The DXY chart reflects a **clear upward trajectory**, characterized by a sequence of **ascending highs and higher lows** — a classic sign of bullish momentum.
* Currently, the price is **retracing toward the 50-day EMA**, which appears to be holding as **dynamic support**.
* Two important **horizontal support zones** are marked:
* **Support 1 (S1):** \~97.400 (aligned with EMA-50)
* **Support 2 (S2):** \~96.800 (a deeper correction level)
**Projected Price Zones**
* **Near-Term Objective:** **98.800 to 99.000**
* A rebound from the EMA or S1 could send price higher toward this zone, continuing the current bullish structure.
* **Mid-Term Target:** **99.200 to 99.400**
* If the price successfully clears the 99.000 resistance, further bullish continuation could aim for this intermediate target range.
* **Extended Target:** **100.000+**
* A sustained breakout beyond 99.400 could open the path toward **psychological resistance at 100.000**, possibly higher on strong momentum.
**Support Zones to Watch**
* **S1 (97.400):** This level coincides with the 50-day EMA and represents a **first line of defense**.
* **S2 (96.800):** Should the price fall below S1, this secondary level could provide **stronger support** and potential bounce opportunity.
**Risk Management**
* Consider placing a **protective stop** just below S2 — around **96.500** — to safeguard against a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
**Summary**
* The DXY remains **technically bullish**, with potential upside targets at **98.800**, **99.400**, and eventually **100.000+**.
* Traders can monitor **S1 and S2** for potential entries or trend confirmation.
* A **breakdown below 96.500** would invalidate the bullish setup and warrant caution.