Trade ideas
Dollar Index Behavior in a Descending DiamondThe dollar index has made a very polite effort and has been fluctuating within the range I have drawn, and I think this effort will continue and continue its downward trend until the price range I have indicated in the image!
Time will tell if this claim is true!
Good luck...
Bearish drop off?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 98.91
1st Support: 98.43
1st Resistance: 99.43
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2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2)2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2) 📉💵
📆 Feb 25 was just the beginning — and now we’ve got confirmation.
DXY couldn’t hold above structure, and the drop is on. What began as a quiet theme is turning into the macro headline:
The King Dollar is softening... on purpose.
🔍 Chart Context
• 🔴 Rejection at 112.3 — clean and brutal**
• 🔁 100.95 now flipped into resistance**
• 📉 Heading toward Target: 94.37** — the long-term structure low
The structure hasn’t changed — only the velocity has.
This isn’t a flash move. This is policy-meets-price.
🧨 Fundamentals: Trump’s Soft Dollar Doctrine
Back on January 23, Trump told the world exactly what he wanted:
“I’d like to see interest rates come down… a lot.”
“Oil down, prices down, inflation gone — and then rates down.”
Translation?
💵 A weaker dollar to fuel exports, ease debt loads, and juice the real economy.**
This is not weakness — it’s a recalibration.
Add in:
• Tariffs + labor policy inflation
• Pressure on Powell
• Geopolitical chess moves (Putin negotiations, Middle East detente)
→ and you’ve got a coordinated softening playbook.
📉 What’s Next?
• 🔹 Break 98 = Target 94.37 opens wide
• 🧱 If 94 cracks, we’ll re-assess — but for now, that’s the magnet
• DXY needs a miracle to reclaim strength without Fed resistance easing
2025 could be the year the dollar gets normalized by force — not finesse.
🔄 Perspective Shift 🔄
This isn’t dollar death — it’s dollar diplomacy.
Strong enough to hold global weight, soft enough to boost Main Street.
You think this isn’t coordinated? Look again. 📡
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
First episode:
⚠️ I’m not a financial advisor — just a philosopher with better chart vision than 99% of the noise out there. What I share is my view, not a signal. You trade? You’re responsible. Just don’t blame me when I’m right again.
17.10.25 Morning ForecastJust a heads up! I will be in Italy the beginning of next week, so most likely will not be able to upload any video forecasts. I will do my best to post what I am looking at for the day to keep you guys in the loop. From Thursday next week I will be back to normal schedule 🫡
Pairs on Watch -
FX:USDJPY
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
US Dollar: Bullish! The Pullback To Support Is An Opportunity!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct 13 - 17th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD was bullish all of last week, except for Friday. Pres. Trump announced China tariffs and the market dumped. For me, this is a market knee jerk reaction, and temporary in nature. I am looking for the DXY to continue higher this coming week, rendering last Friday's candle as only a pullback to support.
There is an opportunity here for buyers, in my opinion.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Slips Today: Bearish Pressures from Fed?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down today, trading around 98.86 to 98.91, with a daily decline of approximately 0.15% to 0.21% or about 0.15 to 0.23 points.
This extends a pullback from recent highs near 99.57, marking the second consecutive session of losses as the index slips below 99.00.
Key pressures include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments on a softening labor market, which have boosted expectations for another quarter-point rate cut this month, followed by more in December and potentially three additional reductions next year.
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed critical economic data releases, adding uncertainty and weighing on sentiment. Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, such as threats of a cooking oil embargo and sanctions on related firms, are further undermining the dollar amid broader economic risks.
Despite a 2.31% monthly gain, the index remains down 4.52% over the past year, with forecasts pointing to further softening toward 98.43 by quarter-end and 96.54 in 12 months. Recent market chatter reinforces a bearish tilt, with the euro and yen gaining ground on related policy shifts abroad.
DXY - TRADING WEEK 20 - 24 OCTOBER 2025This week i expect the DXY to pullback to the 98.800/98.900 level of resistance and consequencially selloff to the 97.700 - 97.600 level of support closing the gap created two weeks ago, I don't exclude a lower test in the 97.000 area, this will be up to the strenght of the USD coming out from data at the start of the week.
The test of 97.700 - 97.600 could provide excellent trading setup and entries for GOLD, EUR USD, USD CHF and related USD pairs.
I expect the index to rally up and achieve the 99.600 and 100.200 level of resistance.
Please like/comment/share this idea - i will follow up through the week.
Wishing you all a great trading week!
DOLLAR Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
DXY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY Price is expected to retest the horizontal supply area early next week as liquidity builds up below Friday’s close. Smart Money may engineer a short-term rally into this zone before resuming the bearish move toward 98.38.
-------------------
Stop Loss: 98.71
Take Profit: 98.38
Entry: 98.58
Time Frame: 3H
-------------------
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY AnalysisOn the weekly chart, the price has formed a new trading range. We mark it out and move down to the daily timeframe.
After the correction, the price reacted from an inefficiency zone, showing buyer interest.
At the moment, I’m considering two bullish scenarios:
1️⃣ An impulsive breakout of the daily FVG zone followed by an expansion of the current range.
2️⃣ A reaction from the FVG zone, then a sweep of Friday’s low, after which the price could resume its upward movement.
I see the second scenario as more likely, as it would allow the market to collect liquidity before continuing higher.
DXY SHORT FROM SUPPLY AREA|
✅DXY Price is retracing toward the supply level, where a reaction is likely once the imbalance gets filled. A rejection from this zone could confirm the retest before continuation lower toward the 98.30 target area. Time Frame 2H.
SHORT🔥
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Dollar index - Macro Bearish divergenceA lot of information in the above 6-month chart of the dollar index, could discuss for hours.. some highlights:
1) The bearish divergence currently printing shall confirm by July 2023 should 100 level collapse. It is the only time in history a bearish divergence of this strength has printed on the 6-month chart.
2) IF it confirms, the index will target the lower side of the channel around 60-70 level.
3) Notice the trend of the index, lower highs lower lows. It is remarkable how many are bullish on the dollar, in the macro sense.
4) Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ made considerable gains in the 10-year period that followed a rejection from the upper side of the channel. Many ‘experts’ now talk about the coming lost decade. Gold is the only option, they say. Is that what you see in this chart?! Not what I’m seeing..
Will return in July to see how this candle prints, however with 1.3 months to go it is not looking good for the dollar.
Ww
DXY UpdateDXY — The Volume Cap: Where Momentum Meets Memory
Every market has memory — and in the Dollar Index, it’s sitting right at 97.4.
That’s the current Volume Cap — a zone where heavy participation once stopped price cold, leaving unfinished business behind.
Price loves to revisit these caps, testing whether the imbalance still holds or finally gives way.
⚙️ Context (4H | Friday Recap)
Friday delivered heavy volume and clean directional flow — a textbook session.
DXY continues to rotate within the 97.048–99.198 range, holding a short-term bullish tone inside a larger consolidation.
📊 Technical Map
• Structure: Long-term bearish range inside a broader consolidation phase.
• Momentum: Still bullish, but showing early fatigue.
• Volume Cap: The 97.4 level remains unfilled, acting like a magnet for potential retests — the true battleground between continuation and correction.
🌐 Fundamental Pulse
After a month of running hot, the dollar finally cooled.
Retail Sales and Industrial Production softened, yields eased, and traders started whispering “rate cuts” again.
The Fed’s cautious tone keeps volatility contained ahead of next week’s Core PCE inflation data.
🧭 Trade Plan (If/Then)
If DXY runs through 97.4, watch for a bearish Volume Cap flip — potential downside toward nearby support.
If Monday’s price action drives higher, expect bullish momentum rotation back toward the 97.0 retest region.
DOLLAR INDEX 97.999-98 IF RESPECTED A S A BUY FLOOR THEN consider to selll GOLD ,SILVER COPPER eurusd sell,audusd sell,usdjpy buy,gbpusd sell, usdzar buy .
the dollar index is the measure of the value of us dollar to basket of six other mejor currency and its affected by the price action of US10Y.
LAYER BY LAYER .
DONT RUSH
#DOLLAR #DXY
Will DXY Sustain The Pressure Amid Current Uncertainties?Fundamental approach:
- The US dollar retreated this week, pressured by expectations of continued Fed easing and signs of emerging economic weakness.
- The Fed's latest Beige Book revealed that economic activity remained flat, with increasing layoffs across districts, and middle- to lower-income households reducing their spending, reinforcing dovish expectations. Chair Powell's scheduled remarks and the ongoing government shutdown, which began on 1 Oct, have delayed critical data. The Sep NFP was not released, and the Sep CPI is rescheduled for Fri, 24 Oct, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's outlook.
- Meanwhile, the euro gained ground as European currencies strengthened against the greenback, with the dollar down around 10% YTD.
- The dollar may face continued downside pressure as markets await the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is widely anticipated. However, delayed economic data releases could inject volatility into near-term trading.
Technical approach:
- DXY is trading within the ascending channel and retesting the support at 98.60. The index is slightly above both EMAs, indicating the upward momentum persists.
- If DXY remains above the key support at 98.60, confluence with the ascending channel's lower bound, the index may rise to retest the psychological resistance at 100.00.
- On the contrary, breaking below the support and both EMAs may prompt the DXY to retest the following support at 97.15.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness






















