Bulls and Bears zone for 04-11-2024S&P has been trading in a range since April 4th sell off. Neither buyers or sellers have any conviction in trading. Level to watch: 5217.00 ----5215.00 Report to watch: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 am ESTby traderdan590
US500 Will Fall! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 5203.9. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5153.7 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Shortby SignalProviderUpdated 114
US500 is this the end?* CPI report came out today of 3.4, 0.1 Point higher than consensus 3.3 * Food and durable goods experienced significant gain.. (Egg price went up by 5 percent during this month only... guess no more scramble eggs for the rest of the month fml) * Other trajectories remained pretty stable from last month. * Latest PMI report delivered score that is higher than 50 points for the first time in two years. And so far so on.. Market suggests the narrative is now much further away from expected June Rate cut, which had extended end of the year rally throughout the first quarter of the current year. It is very troublesome time for investors to make their investment decisions. Obviously, you can go for other alternatives like SET:GC , NYSE:CL , CRYPTOCAP:BTC , etc.. Chart-wise, I think we are also indecisive of which direction to head towards. We might end up being consolidated till the next inflation relative publication to give us a better hint of Fed's interest rate decision. Each side is surrounded by persistent 4 hour or higher timeframe order blocks with no significant volume occurrence because everyone is too busy buying Treasury bonds and alternative investments... Here are two narratives you can refer to which I've found quite persuasive..(and obviously, its you who will make your decision): 1. Powell said he will cut rates 3 times this year. Bull trend will continue until the rate cut is completed. 2. One suggests that the Neutral Interest rate is being fixated at the current level, and Fed won't be able to meet their expected rate of inflation. Also, Fed is highly unlikely to lower interest rate until the nomination season is over because it will heavily impact the nomination outcome. Well, this is it. Wish you all the traders best of luck...and I expect you will pray for myself as well (cuz I need it desperately). The best of wish to you all.by Kim_CLSPXUpdated 0
SPX500 (H4) GOIN DOWN SPX500 (H4) GOIN DOWN SPX500 Prize know 5254.34 The price of SPX500 going down near 5070.49 SPX500 get ready to trade 🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰 Note: COMMENT, FOLLOW AND LIKE. 🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰🟰by ForexFlightsUpdated 2217
My three buddah patternLet´s see how this plays out. So far this is what I think will happen and we won´t see the real bottom until the end of 2026. Market will probably go down very slowly. As of today... and thenShortby josemanuelmaestrerodriguez111
SPX500Markets are amazing.. they push and push and push some more until bears give up shorting it then.. pow its over.. SPX500 started losing some steam it seems, is it time for a correction.. Lets see how it goes :)Shortby Roxo66Updated 3
US30 CLOSED OF WITHIN SELL ZONEUS30 has closed of within our sell zone so we do look to short the pair in the week ahead provided it gets rejected at resistance zone Follow to keep up to date Shortby mffxtradingUpdated 3
3 buddhasMy guess is that we are heading south to form the head of the three buddha pattern (or H&S) If I am right, during the next three months we are going to see a sell off to 4450. After that, my strategy is to open a buy position to try to catch a new rally... So far, I am in green with two main shorts at 5242 and 5215 pips which my main idea is to keep them until 4450. So far, just watching the evolution of this sell off which I believe we are in.by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez0
Next target 4840 (.786 Fib)As of today Sp500 is just below her important uptrend line (montly. 2009 to 2021-previous high) which currently is 5162 pips. Volatility could change this, but so far that means that Sp500 is losing steam and if I am right it will continue falling until her next major support at 4840 to see a proper bounce.Shortby josemanuelmaestrerodriguez115
S&P 500 - Recovery at Bouhmidi-BandsS&P 500 fell below the important level of 5200 and below the lower BB as well as the previous day's low after higher inflation data then expected. Now right after initial balance, we see a reversal towards the bandwidth. If the level is not reclaimed, the downward trend could continue today. The next targets would then be at BB (5148/5128). Longby Sisa873
Options LevelsDay after day, I find that these levels matter in a big way. From what I can tell, during the OpEx, normal levels will work, but as soon as the market is open, the SPX and QQQ options levels drive everything.by trepidity223
What's next for SP500?SP500 has made a nice drop like i predicted in my previous idea. I expect a little continuation of the drop before a pullback that could lead the price to the resistance area at 5250. Here i will look for a new short in the next weeks.by CryptoForexGem223
March 2024 CPI Recap: Lack Of Progress Pushes Cuts Back FurtherUS CPI, once again, surprised to the upside of expectations in March, sparking a hawkish cross-asset reaction as the balance of risks tilts towards later, and fewer, Fed cuts than markets had expected, as price pressures remain stubbornly high. Headline CPI rose by 3.5% YoY in March, a significant uptick from the 3.2% YoY pace seen a month prior, and above consensus expectations of a 3.4% print – the 4th straight hotter than expected headline CPI print in a row. Core CPI, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 3.8% YoY last month, a worrying sign, which implies that disinflation progress within the US economy may be stalling, a particularly concerning sign for an FOMC who continue to seek additional “confidence” that inflation is on its way back towards the 2% target. Of even more concern, ‘supercore’ inflation (core services ex housing) rose to 4.8% YoY, its highest level in almost a year. It is, however, important to note that the annual inflation metrics are not necessarily the most accurate way of interpreting incoming price data, while FOMC members also place increasing weight on 3- and 6-month annualised CPI metrics, though of course the PCE inflation gauge – due later this month – remains the primary focus. These metrics, however, are similarly concerning. Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM in March, unchanged from the month before, while core prices also rose 0.4%, also being unchanged from the pace seen in February. Clearly, this also points to a worrying lack of disinflationary progress. Converting these prints to annualised figures produces the following: 3-month annualised CPI: 4.6% 6-month annualised CPI: 3.2% 3-month annualised core CPI: 4.5% 6-month annualised core CPI: 3.9% Digging further into the inflation figures, it’s clear that the uptick in headline inflation was driven primarily by a substantial rise in energy prices, particularly gasoline, as the component snapped a disinflationary streak that had previously run for at least the last 12 months. Nevertheless, price pressures remain relatively broad-based across the economy. Sticking with inflation components, a clear divergence remains between core goods and core services prices. The former fell 0.6% on an annual basis in March, as the pace of goods disinflation quickened, and the component slipped further beneath the pre-pandemic average. In contrast, services prices remain stubbornly high, rising to 5.4% YoY last month, likely a direct consequence of the continued labour market tightness seen within the US economy. While goods disinflation has continued, this divergence is of particular concern given the increasing upside risks to goods inflation, as geopolitical tensions persist, and transport costs rise, factors which may contribute to push headline inflation higher still, particularly if the pace of services disinflation remains painfully slow, or even prices begin to make a resurgence, as this report demonstrates is a distinct risk. As always, however, some context is key with this inflation report, particularly in terms of potential policy implications. While the bumpy path back to the FOMC’s 2% inflation target continues to be followed, policymakers will be loath to over-react to a single print, particularly when there are another two CPI prints to come before the June FOMC, at which the sell-side consensus still sees the first cut being delivered. Furthermore, one must recall that the FOMC actually target the PCE inflation gauge, as opposed to its CPI cousin, and we also have a further two PCE reports due by the time of that meeting. In short, every man and his dog will have likely forgotten this data by the time the June FOMC decision comes around. However, as recently as last week, Chair Powell was noting that it remains “too soon” to determine whether recent inflation data is more than a ‘bump’ – a report of this ilk, particularly the component breakdown, implies that the recent resurgence in price pressures could indeed be more than just a bump in the road, therefore tilting the balance of risks towards later, and fewer, cuts than previously thought. This was well-evidenced by the substantial hawkish reaction in the USD OIS curve to the data. Money markets now imply just a 20% chance of a June cut, down from around 60% pre-CPI, while also seeing a cut in July as just an even chance, compared to the certainty that it was prior to the release. The curve now fully prices the first cut for September, while pricing just 50bp of cuts in total during 2024, a significant divergence with the 75bp of easing that the March median dot implied. Naturally, this move in rate expectations sparked a broader hawkish market reaction, with Treasuries and equities both selling off aggressively, as both the S&P and Nasdaq futures slipped more than 1%, while policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yields rose a whopping 20bp form pre-release levels, charging towards the 5% handle. Gold also found sellers, as nominal rates surged, while the move in Treasuries also pushed the USD higher across the board, including forcing USD/JPY north of the 152 handle, which had by many been seen as a ‘line in the sand’ at which Japan’s MoF may seek to intervene. On the whole, however, the data is a worrying sign for the FOMC, confirming that what had previously been dismissed as noise in hotter than expected January and February data, may well indeed be a signal that price pressures are stickier and more stubborn than expected. The balance of risks clearly points towards the FOMC remaining a hawkish outlier among G10 peers, as rate cuts loom elsewhere, likely continuing to underpin the greenback. Equities, meanwhile, should see dips remaining relatively shallow, and short-lived, as the policy outlook should remain supportive with cuts still on the table later this year, though earnings season – starting 12th April – will be the key near-term driver.by Pepperstone5
S&P500 Bull Cycle intact. 100 year long Blueprint revealed!A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. Along those lines, we present you the S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale. As you can see, since the Great Depression, the stock market started to creat a pattern with clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons' to fill out and complete this pattern. Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). This may all be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. Are you willing to bet against this blueprint? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇by TradingShot7748
S&P500: Will the Positive Bias Return to WallStreet?Important U.S. manufacturing and inflation data for the month of March will be released this afternoon. On the sidelines, the American Bank Lenders Association (MBA) loan purchase index will be released to provide additional insight into the impact of household debt. The afternoon will close with U.S. crude oil stockpiles and end the afternoon with Chicago Fed President Austan D. Goolsbe and the FOMC data release. S&P500 (Ticker AT: USA500) and the US equity markets closed the day slightly in positive after starting the session with a -1.23% bump after which the index in the late afternoon was able to recover just before the end of the day ending the day up +0.14% closing at 5,209.91 points. On a technical level since the end of March the index has been in the middle zone of a long term range, having created a relatively stable trading zone between 5,280.97 and 5,124.80 points. It is likely that if this afternoon's data accompanies the market in positive, and shows a solid economy, the US indices will regain their tone and try to look again for the 5,258.28 points that are last Thursday's price zone, to test if it has enough strength to try to look for higher price zones. If we look at the RSI at the moment it is at the trading average with 55.80% and the price bell indicates that it is not likely to pass given that it marks 5207 points the strongest checkpoint zone. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk. ULongby ActivTrades1
S&P500 Technical Outlook For CPI DayTussle between bears and bulls resulted a narrow close after big sell off in first hour today. SPX pull back in last hour shows strong resilience from bulls before big CPI day. Dragonfly Doji candle formed on daily time frame which is positive sign for bulls. – Hourly Trend is still down – Swing high and lows are around 5260 and 5160 respectively. Tomorrow we may see big move from support or resistance if CPI print is at least 0.30 points higher or lower from expected 3.4% numbers.by Gurmeet0
spx500just for my own eyes, to see in the future. can it blow off all the lines 6-8k before 1929 like crashby MoneysharX0
DEMO: liquidity taken, market structure shift, fvg for entryDEMO: liquidity taken, market structure shift, fvg for entryShortby ptwPTW1
S&P500; Into the Void Pt.3S&P500 has failed to touch the "Swing High", or even the Swing High close. Meaning that there is not much to trade from(in my opinion). However, the previous range is a good reference point and is therefore more meaningful. I have indicated a Bullish Order Block, a Fair Value Gap and an entry that is at the Equilibrium of that previous range. TPs remain the same.Longby jordandeklerkUpdated 0
S&P500; Into the Void Pt.4The price of the S&P500 went to the top of the previous range, then to our entry and things went to plan as TP1 was hit. A retracement is expected before heading to TP2.Longby jordandeklerk2
Quick ScalpPrice broke structure creating a higher high. SL at 5194 targeting friday highs with a 1:R risk reward ratio. Entered on new york open. Hopefully price reaches target if market follows structure. SP500 is currently in a short term uptrend.Longby Arys-CapitalUpdated 7
S&P 500 in 15 min chart Hello everyone Sometimes I want share my trading set ups but please consider that I just enter them if I get confirmation and also these type of ideas are completely different from long term strategies in big timeframe charts. So if my signals works and are correct use them and if not so put them in the garbage because they wont be useful for the future set ups. Thanks Longby AMA_FX2