US500FU trade ideas
Stock market pullback aheadIt’s an incredible time for retail investors: the market is pumping non-stop, and it seems like it could continue indefinitely.
However, the charts are signaling a different scenario as we approach October.
MACD is at the top of its range
RSI is at the top of its range
Stochastic is at the top of its range
While liquidity remains high and rate cuts appear increasingly likely, history shows that when these indicators reach such extremes on the 1-week timeframe, a market correction often occurs. This reset can pave the way for further growth.
In short, we may see a correction, sideways movement, or a pause, most likely starting in October.
Anything is possible, but the charts don’t lie—even if sentiment can be misleading.
Monitor the situation closely: a market correction can also be a great opportunity to buy at lower prices.
DYOR.
SPX: rate cut fuels market rallyThe Fed finally made a long awaited move and cut interest rates by 25 basis points, for the first time during this year. Additional cuts are possible during the Q4, however, they will depend on the economic data, not on expectations from markets. Fed Chair Powell stressed that risks are now switched to the jobs market from the inflation, which moved relatively stable during the past period, although still modestly above the Fed's target of 2%.
The US equity markets continue to react positively to new macro developments, with S&P500 reaching another new all time highest level as of the end of the week at 6.665. The market also continues to move within a highly overbought range. Some analysts are beginning to stress that current S&P 500 levels are trading at 22 times forward earnings, noting that a period of consolidation would be a healthy period.
The rise in the S&P500 was helped by a sharp jump in Intel shares, which surged nearly 23% following Nvidia’s $5 billion investment and their plan to collaborate on AI-chips. Other top contributors included Nvidia, which recovered earlier losses despite concerns over Chinese tech regulations. Meanwhile, some S&P 500 stocks lagged: Darden Restaurants fell after disappointing earnings, and CrowdStrike saw gains after broker upgrades.
sp500 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Inflation, Interest Rates & Global Trade CostsPart 1: Understanding Inflation
What is Inflation?
Inflation is simply the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises over time. When inflation is high, money loses value—what you could buy last year for $100 may now cost $110.
Economists track inflation using indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Wholesale Price Index (WPI). While some inflation is normal (a sign of healthy demand), too much or too little can destabilize economies.
Mild inflation (2–3% per year) usually means an economy is growing steadily.
High inflation (above 6–7%) erodes purchasing power, increases uncertainty, and hurts savings.
Hyperinflation (triple digits annually, like Zimbabwe or Venezuela at times) destroys entire economies.
Deflation (falling prices) may sound good, but it discourages spending and investment, leading to recessions.
Causes of Inflation
Demand-Pull Inflation – When demand for goods exceeds supply, prices go up. Example: During post-pandemic recovery, pent-up demand pushed prices higher globally.
Cost-Push Inflation – When production costs rise (raw materials, wages, fuel), producers pass costs to consumers. Example: Oil price spikes increase transportation and manufacturing costs worldwide.
Imported Inflation – When the cost of imported goods rises due to weaker currency or higher global prices.
Monetary Inflation – When central banks print too much money or keep interest rates artificially low, flooding the economy with liquidity.
Why Inflation Matters Globally
Inflation does not stay within borders. Higher energy prices in one country push up manufacturing costs worldwide. Food shortages in one region can cause global ripple effects. For example, the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted grain exports, leading to food inflation across Africa and Asia.
Part 2: Interest Rates
What are Interest Rates?
Interest rates represent the cost of borrowing money. Central banks (like the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, or Reserve Bank of India) set benchmark rates that influence lending across the economy.
When central banks change rates, they are essentially trying to control inflation and economic growth.
Low interest rates encourage borrowing and spending but can fuel inflation.
High interest rates slow down borrowing, reduce spending, and cool inflation—but they also risk slowing growth too much.
The Inflation–Interest Rate Link
Central banks use interest rates as their main weapon against inflation. If prices are rising too fast, raising rates makes loans costlier, which reduces consumer demand and investment, eventually bringing inflation down.
For example, in 2022–23, the U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively hiked interest rates from near 0% to above 5% to fight the worst inflation in 40 years. That made mortgages, car loans, and corporate borrowing more expensive, slowing down demand.
Interest Rates & Global Trade
Interest rates do not just affect domestic economies—they also influence global trade and capital flows:
Currency Strength – Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, strengthening the domestic currency. A stronger dollar, for example, makes U.S. exports more expensive but imports cheaper.
Capital Flows – Investors chase higher yields. If U.S. rates rise, money flows into American bonds and stocks, draining liquidity from emerging markets.
Debt Burden – Many developing countries borrow in dollars. When U.S. rates rise, their repayment burden grows, sometimes leading to crises.
Part 3: Global Trade Costs
What are Trade Costs?
Global trade costs include everything that makes cross-border trade expensive or complicated:
Transportation Costs – Shipping freight, air cargo, fuel charges.
Tariffs & Trade Barriers – Import duties, customs delays, paperwork.
Supply Chain Costs – Warehousing, inventory, distribution networks.
Currency Fluctuations – Exchange rate risks add hidden costs to contracts.
Key Drivers of Trade Costs
Energy Prices – Oil and gas prices directly affect shipping costs. For example, a spike in crude oil prices can double container freight charges.
Geopolitical Tensions – Wars, sanctions, and tariffs increase uncertainty and add barriers to trade.
Infrastructure Bottlenecks – Port congestion, lack of modern rail/road links, or limited storage facilities make trade inefficient.
Technology & Automation – Digital tools (blockchain, AI logistics, tracking systems) can lower costs by reducing inefficiencies.
Regulatory Complexity – Each country’s rules on safety, quality, and documentation increase time and cost.
Recent Shocks to Global Trade Costs
COVID-19 Pandemic – Container shortages, factory shutdowns, and port delays caused shipping costs to multiply five-fold.
Russia–Ukraine War – Energy price shocks and rerouted shipping lanes raised logistics costs.
Climate Change & Canal Blockages – Events like the Suez Canal blockage (2021) disrupted $9 billion worth of daily trade.
Part 4: The Interconnection
Here’s where it all ties together:
Inflation & Trade Costs
Higher trade costs (fuel, shipping, tariffs) push prices up globally, fueling inflation.
Inflation in turn raises production costs, which feeds back into higher global trade prices.
Interest Rates & Inflation
Central banks raise rates to fight inflation.
But higher rates increase borrowing costs for shipping companies, exporters, and importers, raising global trade costs indirectly.
Interest Rates & Trade Costs
Higher rates strengthen currencies, making imports cheaper but exports less competitive.
Developing nations with heavy external debt see rising repayment burdens when rates go up, making global trade riskier.
A Cycle in Motion
Rising oil prices → higher shipping costs → global inflation.
Global inflation → central banks raise interest rates.
Higher interest rates → stronger currencies, weaker exports.
Weaker exports → trade slows down, but debt burdens grow.
This cycle shows how tightly linked these forces are, making global economic management extremely tricky.
Part 5: Case Studies
Case Study 1: U.S. Federal Reserve & Global Trade (2022–23)
When the Fed hiked rates rapidly to curb inflation, emerging markets like Turkey, Argentina, and India faced capital outflows and currency depreciation. Their import bills rose, worsening inflation. Shipping companies faced higher borrowing costs, raising freight charges.
Case Study 2: Oil Price Spike & Global Inflation (1970s & 2020s)
In the 1970s, OPEC’s oil embargo quadrupled oil prices, fueling global inflation and recession. In 2021–22, post-pandemic recovery plus the Russia-Ukraine war caused similar oil and gas price spikes, driving up both inflation and trade costs.
Case Study 3: Pandemic & Supply Chains
COVID-19 shutdowns raised container shipping costs from $2,000 per container in 2019 to nearly $20,000 in 2021. This directly drove inflation in consumer goods worldwide.
Part 6: The Future Outlook
Trends to Watch
De-Dollarization – If global trade shifts away from the U.S. dollar, interest rate cycles in the U.S. may have less influence globally, though this will take time.
Green Energy Transition – As shipping and manufacturing shift to renewable energy, volatility from oil price shocks may reduce, lowering trade costs in the long run.
Technology in Logistics – AI, blockchain, and real-time data tracking can significantly reduce global trade costs.
Fragmentation of Supply Chains – “Friendshoring” and regional trade blocs may reduce dependence on global shipping but increase localized inflation risks.
Climate Risks – Extreme weather, rising sea levels, and canal disruptions will continue to add volatility to trade costs.
Policy Challenges
Balancing Inflation & Growth – Central banks must avoid over-tightening, which risks recession.
Global Coordination – Inflation, interest rates, and trade costs are global phenomena; yet policies are mostly national. Lack of coordination worsens shocks.
Debt Sustainability – Rising global interest rates put developing nations at risk of debt crises, which can collapse trade flows.
Conclusion
Inflation, interest rates, and global trade costs are not isolated variables. They form a complex, interconnected system that shapes the global economy. Inflation eats away at purchasing power, central banks fight it with interest rates, and those rate changes ripple through currencies, trade, and debt. Meanwhile, trade costs—driven by energy, geopolitics, and supply chains—feed into inflation, creating a feedback loop.
For businesses, policymakers, and traders, understanding this triangle is essential. A shipping delay in Asia can fuel inflation in Europe. An interest rate hike in the U.S. can trigger capital flight from Africa. And an oil shock in the Middle East can raise costs across the globe.
In the 21st century, with economies so deeply interconnected, no country can ignore the dance between inflation, interest rates, and global trade costs. Managing this delicate balance will determine whether the world enjoys steady growth—or faces repeated cycles of crisis.
SPX 23% - 36% Market Crash From Recent Highs (~6,147)Structural Breakdown & Key Observations
Recent High: $6,147.43 (ATH level)
Bearish Momentum Indicators:
MACD: -40.98 (Bearish momentum increasing)
RSI: 45.11 (Weakening strength but not yet oversold)
Volume Increase: $14.18B → Indicates potential distribution.
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Confirmation:
Potential Upthrust & Distribution Phase around 6,147 - 6,000.
If SPX loses 5,700 - 5,600, it will confirm a markdown phase → Bearish.
What Could Trigger a 23% - 36% Crash?
Macroeconomic Risks:
Rising interest rates (Liquidity tightening).
Earnings recession (Corporate profits declining).
Geopolitical risks (Oil, China, etc.).
Bond market stress → Inverted yield curve impact.
Technical Market Triggers:
Break of 5,600 → Strong Bearish Confirmation.
5,400 - 5,200 = Critical "Mid-Crash" Zone → If lost, crash risk accelerates.
VIX spikes above 30+ would confirm a volatility explosion.
✅ Bearish bias confirmed → If SPX breaks below 5,600, crash potential is HIGH.
✅ A 23-36% drawdown aligns with macro & technical risks.
✅ Watch for Fed intervention at ~4,300 - 4,750 levels → This will dictate if the market stabilizes.
🚨 Conclusion:
If SPX holds 5,600, expect a bounce → Otherwise, full markdown into a 23-36% crash is possible.
Key level to watch: 5,400 - 5,200 → This is the TRUE danger zone for a full market selloff.
YOU MAY LIVE TO SEE MANMADE HORRORS BEYOND YOUR COMPREHENSION :)"Beyond Technical Analysis" aka "Wave Analysis > Shingo Waves"
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
I've also absolutely NAILED _both_ OANDA:XAUUSD and OANDA:XAGUSD breakouts in their entirety (@ see history)
Major S&P 500 - Bearish Signals On 09/19/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) had two major bearish Signals.
Since March of 2000 all significant SPX peaks occurred with a rising VIX. On 09/19/25 the VIX made its second higher bottom since 08/28/25.
Daily RSI has reached the overbought zone and has a bearish divergence.
A multi – week decline could begin soon.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 19, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the trading session of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index demonstrated a significant upward price movement following a severe drawdown on Tuesday. The index successfully reached the Outer Index Rally level of 6620 and is currently progressing towards the established target of the Inner Index Rally at 6704, with the potential for further upward momentum to extend to the Outer Index Rally level of 6768.
It is essential to acknowledge that upon achieving the target of the Inner Index Rally at 6704, the expected price action is likely to initiate a substantial pullback, which is projected to aim for the target Mean Support level of 6585 and may extend to the Mean Support at 6485. Nonetheless, this primary segment of intermediary In Force Retracement pullback is likely to facilitate a considerable rebound, allowing for a subsequent retest of the Outer Index Rally level of 6704.
US500 (S&P500) Projection📊 US500 (S&P500) Forecast | Intraday & Swing Outlook 🚀📉
Asset Class: US500 CFD (SPX, SPY, S&P500)
Current Closing Price: 6,661.8 (20th Sept 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4)
🔎 Market Overview
The S&P500 remains highly volatile as it consolidates near all-time highs. Both bullish continuation and reversal traps are emerging.
We integrate Elliott Wave 🌊, Ichimoku ☁️, Gann 🔺, and VWAP 📏 tools to frame trade setups.
⚡ Intraday Technical Levels
Immediate Support: 6,635 – 6,610 🟢
Key Resistance: 6,690 – 6,725 🔴
VWAP Zones: Anchored support at 6,628 📏
RSI: Neutral (52) → room to swing both sides 📈📉
🎯 Intraday Trade Ideas
Buy (Scalp): 6,620 – 6,635 🛒
Target: 6,670 → 6,690 🚀
Stop Loss: Below 6,600 ❌
Sell (Scalp): 6,690 – 6,710 🛑
Target: 6,645 → 6,625 📉
Stop Loss: Above 6,730 ❌
⏳ Swing Trading Outlook
Swing Support: 6,580 – 6,520 📉
Major Resistance: 6,750 – 6,820 🚀
Ichimoku Cloud: Bullish bias (daily/weekly) ☁️
Wave Count: Elliott suggests Wave 4 consolidation before Wave 5 breakout 🌊
🎯 Swing Trade Ideas
Buy (Swing): 6,580 – 6,600 🛒
Target: 6,720 → 6,800 🚀
Stop Loss: 6,520 ❌
Sell (Swing): 6,750 – 6,820 🛑
Target: 6,640 → 6,600 📉
Stop Loss: 6,860 ❌
📐 Pattern Watchlist
⚠️ Potential Bull Trap: Above 6,725 – rejection zone
⚠️ Head & Shoulders risk: Breakdown below 6,580
📏 Gann Levels: Time cycle indicates critical reversal window next week
☁️ Ichimoku Twist: Signals momentum shift by month-end
📌 Strategy Recap
🎯 Intraday Bias: Range trade → watch VWAP flips 📊
📈 Swing Bias: Bullish above 6,600, bearish below 6,580 🔑
⏳ Patience Key: Avoid chasing breakouts without volume confirmation 📉📊
🧭 Conclusion
The US500 (S&P500) is at a make-or-break zone.
✅ Buy dips near 6,600
❌ Sell rallies into 6,750 – 6,820
🔮 Expect volatility as macro events drive direction
📊 Stay disciplined, trade the levels, and adapt quickly 🚀📉
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
📝 TRADING CHECKLIST
Before entering any position:
- ✅ Confirm volume supports move
- ✅ Check RSI for divergences
- ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment
- ✅ Set stop loss before entry
- ✅ Calculate position size
- ✅ Review correlation with DXY/SPX/US30
- ✅ Check economic calendar
- ✅ Assess market sentiment
⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
Sea Routes & Supply Chains1. The Historical Foundation of Sea Routes
1.1 Ancient Maritime Trade
Maritime trade is as old as civilization itself.
The Phoenicians of the Mediterranean (around 1500 BCE) mastered navigation and spread commerce across North Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Europe.
The Silk Road by sea connected China, India, Arabia, and Africa, long before modern globalization. Spices, silk, and precious stones moved across oceans, shaping cultures and economies.
In South Asia, the Indian Ocean trade system linked ports from East Africa to Southeast Asia. Seasonal monsoon winds powered dhows and junks carrying pepper, gold, and textiles.
1.2 Age of Exploration and Colonization
The 15th and 16th centuries marked a turning point. European powers—Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, and later Britain—sought new sea routes to bypass land-based trade monopolies.
Vasco da Gama’s voyage to India (1498) opened Europe to Asian spices.
Columbus’s Atlantic crossing linked Europe with the Americas.
Britain’s mastery of naval power allowed it to dominate maritime routes, turning sea trade into imperial control.
Sea routes became instruments of wealth and power, laying the groundwork for today’s globalized supply chains.
2. Sea Routes: The Arteries of Modern Trade
2.1 Major Maritime Routes
Modern maritime trade relies on established routes shaped by geography and economics.
The Suez Canal Route: Connecting Europe and Asia via the Mediterranean and Red Sea. It shortens the Europe-Asia journey by nearly 7,000 km compared to circumnavigating Africa.
The Strait of Hormuz: A narrow chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.
The Strait of Malacca: Linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, this is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.
The Panama Canal: Vital for connecting the Atlantic and Pacific, especially for trade between the Americas and Asia.
The Trans-Pacific Route: Connecting East Asian manufacturing hubs (China, Japan, South Korea) with North American markets.
The Trans-Atlantic Route: Linking Europe and North America, critical for goods, energy, and raw materials.
2.2 Strategic Chokepoints
These routes rely on chokepoints, narrow maritime passages that, if disrupted, can cripple trade. The Strait of Hormuz, Malacca, and Bab el-Mandeb are classic examples. Piracy, blockades, or accidents in these areas can trigger global economic shockwaves—as seen when the Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal in 2021.
2.3 Cargo Diversity
Sea routes transport a staggering variety of goods:
Bulk commodities: oil, coal, iron ore, grains.
Containerized goods: electronics, apparel, machinery.
Liquefied gases: LNG and LPG.
Specialized cargo: cars, chemicals, refrigerated food (reefer containers).
The efficiency of sea routes lies in their ability to handle massive volumes cheaply compared to air or land transport.
3. Supply Chains: The Skeleton Behind Sea Routes
3.1 What Is a Supply Chain?
A supply chain is the entire process of sourcing, manufacturing, and delivering goods. It includes suppliers, factories, warehouses, transport hubs, shipping lines, and retailers. Sea routes act as international connectors within this chain.
3.2 Globalization and the Rise of Complex Supply Chains
From the late 20th century, businesses adopted “just-in-time” production to minimize inventory and reduce costs. Manufacturers sourced parts globally, relying on efficient shipping. For example:
A smartphone may have components from South Korea, semiconductors from Taiwan, assembly in China, and final sales in the U.S.
Automakers source steel from Brazil, engines from Germany, and wiring harnesses from Mexico.
Sea routes enable this complex web, making supply chains international in scope.
3.3 Containerization Revolution
The introduction of the shipping container in the 1950s revolutionized logistics. Standardized containers allowed goods to move seamlessly between ships, trains, and trucks. This reduced theft, increased efficiency, and lowered shipping costs dramatically. Today, mega-container ships can carry over 20,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units), making sea transport the backbone of global supply chains.
4. Geopolitics of Sea Routes and Supply Chains
4.1 Naval Power and Trade Control
Sea routes are not just commercial pathways but also strategic assets. Countries with strong navies—like the U.S., China, and historically Britain—use maritime dominance to secure trade. Control over chokepoints gives nations leverage in global politics.
4.2 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
China’s Maritime Silk Road, part of the BRI, seeks to expand its influence by investing in ports and shipping infrastructure worldwide. From Gwadar in Pakistan to Piraeus in Greece, China is reshaping maritime geopolitics.
4.3 Trade Wars and Supply Chain Shifts
U.S.–China tensions have exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains. Companies are “China+1” strategies, diversifying manufacturing to Vietnam, India, or Mexico. Yet, all these shifts still depend on sea routes for global distribution.
4.4 Vulnerability to Conflict
Conflicts in Ukraine, the South China Sea, or the Middle East can disrupt supply chains. Sanctions and blockades weaponize trade routes, showing how economic security is intertwined with geopolitics.
5. Challenges Facing Sea Routes and Supply Chains
5.1 Disruptions
Pandemics: COVID-19 exposed supply chain fragility when ports shut down, containers piled up, and shipping costs soared.
Piracy: Particularly in the Gulf of Aden and parts of Southeast Asia.
Climate Change: Rising sea levels, stronger storms, and melting Arctic ice are reshaping routes.
5.2 Environmental Concerns
Shipping contributes about 3% of global CO₂ emissions. Heavy fuel oil pollutes air and oceans, prompting stricter environmental regulations. The push for green shipping—using LNG, hydrogen, or wind-assisted propulsion—is gaining momentum.
5.3 Infrastructure Strain
Mega-ships require deeper ports and better logistics hubs. Not all regions can afford the infrastructure, creating bottlenecks in global trade.
6. The Future of Sea Routes and Supply Chains
6.1 Technological Transformation
Digitalization: Blockchain and AI are streamlining documentation and tracking shipments.
Autonomous Ships: Trials are underway for crewless vessels that reduce costs and risks.
Smart Ports: Automated cranes and AI-driven logistics increase efficiency.
6.2 Arctic Sea Routes
As ice melts, the Northern Sea Route along Russia and the Northwest Passage through Canada are becoming viable. These routes cut travel time between Asia and Europe but raise environmental and sovereignty concerns.
6.3 Regionalization vs. Globalization
Some argue the world is moving towards regional supply chains due to geopolitical tensions and resilience concerns. For instance, the EU encourages near-shoring manufacturing, while the U.S. promotes domestic chip production. However, sea routes will remain indispensable for intercontinental trade.
6.4 Resilient Supply Chains
Companies are rethinking strategies:
Building redundancy (multiple suppliers).
Increasing stockpiles of critical goods (semiconductors, medicines).
Investing in predictive analytics for disruptions.
Conclusion
Sea routes and supply chains truly are the hidden arteries of the global economy. From the spice traders of antiquity to the container ships of today, oceans have been the lifeblood of commerce and civilization. They connect continents, fuel industries, and ensure the smooth functioning of daily life. Yet, they remain vulnerable to geopolitical rivalries, environmental pressures, and technological disruptions.
As the world faces climate change, rising protectionism, and shifting power balances, the future of sea routes and supply chains will demand innovation, resilience, and cooperation. They may be invisible to the average consumer, but every time someone picks up a smartphone, drinks coffee, or fills their car with fuel, they are directly benefiting from the silent yet powerful arteries that keep the global economy alive.
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S&P reaching 6666...what could ever go wrong?There's a healthy does of bullishness as tech companies buy from their neighbors with CAPEX (100% depreciation) and short term rate cuts. The stock market is at the most expensive level, ever, blowing out PE and CAPE ratios. While I hope the economy does better, a pull back is healthy. Many of the leading indicators show bright red, and some are choosing to ignore. I guess time will tell! Best of luck and keep an eye on VIX (UVIX). There's a Volmageddon 2.0 in the making.....
My top wave count alt 6681/6712I have moved back into puts for 2027 rather deep in the money As we are now up almost 24 to 26 weeks in this rally .The PUT to call ratio is now into level I see as mind blowing on 5 10 and now 20 day . and also have three bearish Divergences from Rsi to two of my private models .I have a major turn once again based on the Spirals 2/19 top and 4/7 low they are due near the end of next week . I am now 95 % in Puts and will move to 115% next week based on the dates or is the sp cash can rally to 6709 next week Best of trades WAVETIMER
US500 Remains in Bullish Trend. US500 remains in an overall bullish trend, recently reaching new record highs above 6,600, but market momentum is beginning to moderate as valuations stretch and profit-taking increases.
Fundamental Price Action Drivers
The main drivers are Fed rate cut optimism, strong earnings from big tech, and resilient consumer spending. These factors underpin risk appetite and support the rally.
Weak labor market and softer economic data are leading to expectations for ongoing monetary easing, keeping equities attractive despite elevated risks.
Rotation across sectors is visible, with technology and communication services acting as leaders while defensives and industrials lag.
Corporate earnings resilience and prospects of a "soft landing" continue to draw in buyers, but recent macro headwinds inflation, China trade are sparking caution and some volatility.
Technical Analysis
The index shows overbought technical signals, so any miss on earnings or hawkish surprise from the Fed could rapidly fuel a correction back to 6,490 or even 6,400.
While upward price targets 6,680 –6,725 remain feasible, consolidation or shallow pullbacks are likely in the near-term. Maintaining above 6,500 support for trend continuation is important, a break below increases risk for deeper downside toward 6,400.
Key Technical Levels
Support Zones: 6,610 (major) & 6,555 (pivot),
Resistance Zones: 6,680 & 6,725 (major target).
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SPX500 Trading Strategy Explained: From Entry to Exit⚡ SPX500 “STANDARD & POOR” Indices Market Wealth Strategy Map ⚡
(Swing / Day Trade Plan – Thief OG Style)
🧭 Plan
📈 Bias: Bullish confirmed with 30m LSMA pullback + 0.786 Fibonacci-based MA confluence.
💡 Entry Approach (Thief Layering Strategy™):
Instead of one-shot entry, I place multiple buy-limit layers to average into strength. Example setup:
Buy limit: 6600
Buy limit: 6620
Buy limit: 6640
👉 You can extend or adjust the layering based on your own strategy.
🎯 Stop Loss (SL)
This is my Thief SL @6560.
⚠️ Note to Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s): This SL is not a recommendation. Use your own judgment — protect your loot at your own risk.
💰 Target (TP)
📌 6750 — sitting at strong resistance + overbought zone + possible bull-trap.
⚠️ Again, OG’s — this is not financial advice. Take profit when it fits your plan. Secure the bag, then enjoy the loot!
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch
Keep an eye on these correlated assets to confirm the SPX500’s move:
NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy index with strong correlation to SPX500. If tech stocks are pumping, it’s a bullish signal for our trade. 📊
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): A weaker dollar often boosts equities. Watch for inverse correlation—DXY dropping could mean SPX500 is ready to fly! 🚀
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index): Low VIX levels signal market calm, supporting our bullish setup. A spike in VIX could warn of trouble, so stay sharp! ⚡
Key Correlation Insight: SPX500 often moves in tandem with NASDAQ:NDX due to shared tech giants (think Apple, Microsoft). If NASDAQ:NDX is rallying, it’s a tailwind for our trade. Conversely, a rising TVC:DXY or TVC:VIX could signal caution.
📝 Thief Note
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s):
This map is my personal swing/day trade playbook — not a fixed recommendation. Layer entries, cut losers fast, and loot when you can. Market moves are wild; manage risk like a true OG.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy shared just for fun & educational vibes. Not financial advice. DYOR & trade responsibly.
S&P 500 | H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello Traders,
Similar to the Dow Jones setup, the US500 is also showing a rising wedge pattern. Yesterday, price broke to the downside and is now retesting the wedge — a classic technical setup.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 5.4
Entry: 6 653.6
Stop Loss: 6 676.8
Take Profit: 6 526
🧐 Market Overview:
Rising wedges are typically bearish continuation/reversal patterns, and the current retest provides an opportunity to align with that probability. That said, wedges can fail, especially around major news events, so risk management is key specially with markets being bullish after the fomc announcement.
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
When trading wedge retests, always allow the market to confirm direction. A strong rejection on the retest adds confluence and avoids false breakouts.
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📌 Please note:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.