markusrafferty

markusrafferty

On one hand there isn't necessarily a reason to expect a meltdown similar to the pace of NFLX or META or more latterly TSLA; but on the other hand, thanks to how much extra data there is, it's possible for the trained and experienced eye to suppose a long term downtrend will rhyme with its own history (see the linked AMD chart which goes back even farther)

markusrafferty

As suspected in the linked / related post the higher orange channel didn't hold and what looks like a textbooky head-and-shoulders top has formed; a continued downtrend will likely respect the yellow traffic lines pictured just like the uptrend did

markusrafferty Updated 

50.14348112*FX_IDC:USDEUR^0.576*FX:USDJPY^0.136*FX_IDC:USDGBP^0.119*FX:USDCAD^0.091*FX_IDC:USDSEK^0.042*FX:USDCHF^0.036 "We can't publish this idea for you just yet" "Wow, looks like you've used quite a few capital letters here. This can SEEM LIKE SHOUTING to a lot of folks on the internet. If you could please tone it down a touch, that'd be much...

markusrafferty

The guess I made 6 months ago is based upon prior behaviour (see the other yellow channel from 10 - 15y ago)

markusrafferty Updated 

This post was originally made a few weeks ago when it looked like below but it was hidden by a moderator for no clear reason:

markusrafferty

If AAPL continues downward after another double whammy support wrap-around it could well trigger a collapse to 10k for Nasdaq 100 especially if TSLA goes with it; many are likely to fall for this thinking that up is the direction which makes sense but charts which spent a few years going up for "no reason" can also spend a few years going down for "no reason"

markusrafferty

The strong bounce on a confluence of supports--plus the usual "but we've only seen the beginning of the bear market lol" articles--would strongly suggest that the yellow brick inflation road will continue (see both related ideas) and that recent market activity is another ploy to keep retail anxious / confused / short (valid for as long as the highlighted supports hold)

markusrafferty

Without worsening geopolitical fundamentals and VIX surging back above the half way line (see linked idea) what will hindsightfully be the re-accumulation zone is likely to form here

markusrafferty

Similarly to the linked AMD broadening symmetrical this toppy-looking wedge with exceptionally clearly-defined levels ought to show that there could be a long way down still in a multi-year bear market and that buying levels on this particular chart could be where all time lows on the weekly RSI would later be created

markusrafferty

This chart shows 1) a potentially opposing perspective to the linked Dow Jones great depression 2.0 idea and 2) that whilst inflation took a lifetime to cause -90% damage for the boomers it now takes only about a generation for the zoomers to suffer the same damage a century later

markusrafferty

The weak support in the lower half of the parabolic trend throughout 2022 compared to before points to this being far from over

markusrafferty

If I could sleep for the next 6 months I would be able to guess very accurately how current world events unfolded from the decibel levels recorded here

markusrafferty

Ultimately there's no need for channels and wedges and such to even be penciled in here since the cycles clearly boil down to some simple ground rules... 1. If you're being encouraged to buy in the red or sell in the blue by anyone with alleged "tenure" then you're speaking to a thief; 2. Forget aiming for the all-time-highs or pico bottoms with any kind of...

markusrafferty

Presented as neutral once more as the monthly candle still has a week to close; this flat broadening wedge goes back almost 40 years and a "crisis" tends to be right around the corner whenever it finds resistance so expect very clean reversal market structure here should that trend continue and clear signs of supports refusing to break properly if this century's...

markusrafferty

This chart is presented as neutral since the implied "idea" can't come into play till at least one key support properly breaks and worst case till the yellow channel has become relevant again like before; if this were to play out the main "challenge" would be: how to keep retail long all the way down? (hint: the same supposedly unrelated "people" who "shorted"...

markusrafferty

This idea was put together for a non-trader friend almost two weeks ago and I didn't expect any new highs to be reached just yet but it looks like she might break up here anyway (flagging this as a long but I wouldn't actually enter till support is confirmed on the prior high if I were you so beware)

markusrafferty

Many of you are likely confused about the situation with crypto as things stand and what the best play ultimately is from here which is undoubtedly to reduce risk and wait given the devilish crossroads offered up here by the parabolic FOMO run pushing into the resistance of the broadening wedge on the left; something has to give and will likely do so in the...

markusrafferty Updated 

This one looks like she has more life left in her yet with the run's volume refusing to back down and the epic higher timeframe doji resistance here separating the top from the bottom will probably have a fair bit more time spent in it still One would expect most of the extra market cap fill to come from alts here but if there are still sufficiently many naked...