USDCAD potentail longs due to weaker than expected CAD CPI y/y The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 showed a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 1.7%, down from 1.9% in June 2025 and below the forecast of 1.8%. The decline in headline inflation was largely due to falling gasoline prices, though food and shelter costs continued to push inflation higher.
Due to the weaker-than-expected economic data, we expect the CAD to weaken against the USD.
USDCAD trade ideas
August 11, Forex Outlook: Key Market Expectations for the Week!Welcome back, traders!
In today’s video, we’ll be conducting a Forex Weekly Outlook, analyzing multiple currency pairs from a top-down perspective—starting from the higher timeframes and working our way down to the lower timeframes.
Pairs to focus on this Week:
USDCAD
EURGBP
EURJPY
GBPCHF
USDCHF
NZDCHF
EURNZD
Our focus will be on identifying high-probability price action scenarios using clear market structure, institutional order flow, and key confirmation levels. This detailed breakdown is designed to give you a strategic edge and help you navigate this week’s trading opportunities with confidence.
📊 What to Expect in This Video:
1. Higher timeframe trend analysis
2. Key zones of interest and potential setups
3. High-precision confirmations on lower timeframes
4. Institutional insight into where price is likely to go next
Stay tuned, take notes, and be sure to like, comment, and subscribe so you don’t miss future trading insights!
Have a great week ahead, God bless you!
The Architect 🏛️📉
USDCADI took some time to reflect on the mistakes I made in my previous trades. This game is all about learning from those missteps and I genuinely feel I’ve grown. I’ve learned the importance of being accurate and precise with my levels.So I woke up to this beautiful structure by USDCAD setup now this looks like a convincing buy to the upside
USDCAD Analysis: Triple Top Pattern and Bearish OutlookHello everyone, what do you think about OANDA:USDCAD ?
The USD/CAD pair has formed a Triple Top Pattern, indicating a potential reversal after struggling to break through recent highs. The price has failed to maintain the bullish momentum and has been rejected at key resistance levels. With the market showing signs of a downward trend, we can expect the price to continue to decline towards the support zone, a critical level to monitor.
The next key support level lies around 1.375. If the price continues to stay below the resistance, the likelihood of a drop to this level is high.
Stay alert and trade smart.
Good luck!
All eyes on USDCADIn trading, never chase the price but if there is one thing you may chase, its volatility. On Tuesday, 14:30, (Central African Time) we will see the release of the Canadian CPI for July. USDCAD will see the most volatility. Price action is suggesting a bullish move, seen from the analysis above. An inverted head and shoulders pattern can be seen on the 3hr chart whilst a bullish flag pattern forms on the 1hr chart. Let us wait for price to fall into the right shoulder before executing long.
USDCAD (Swing/Position Long Idea)USDCAD currently appears to be setting up a great long trade for this week (and potentially beyond). Going top-down, the Monthly is playing off a major demand level (which seldomly happens on this TF so it's always significant when it does) which already has my bias shifting to longs. Additionally, if we look at the daily, we'll notice that price broke previous structure, pulled back and looks to be on it's way to make a new HH. The only TF that we need to watch is the weekly, as we are not far away from a potential weekly supply/structure point. Beyond the weekly, as we start to think about execution, if we go to the 4H TF we just broke through a previous structure point strongly, giving me further indication that longs will be the right play. For now, I am waiting for a retracement in price before it continues it's leg up. I'd be planning to hold this trade for at least the remainder of the week and depending on how price acts at the weekly, this trade may actually have the potential to hold for a year, if you have the patience for that (I probably don't but if you do Kudos).
USD/CAD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USD/CAD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is evidently rising on the 8H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 1.371 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDCAD set to drop to order block?USDCAD currently showing potential rejection upon testing the resistance 4h timeframe. There is one single move to the upside tested this key level and formed a doble top. The major direction of the trend is down and there is high potential for this market to drop to order block to test that level.
USDCAD BUY TRADE PLAN# 📋 ELITE TRADE PLAN — USDCAD (Aug 18, 2025)
* 🔥 **Pair + Date**: USDCAD — Aug 18, 2025
* 🆔 **Plan ID**: UCAD-1808-25
* 📋 **Plan Overview Table**
| Type | Direction | Confidence % | R\:R | Status |
| --------- | --------- | ------------ | ---- | ------ |
| Swing/Mid | 📈 Long | 75% | 1:3+ | Valid |
---
## 📈 Market Bias & Type
* **HTF (D1)**: The pair has been in a broader **downtrend** since March, but recent structure (June–Aug) shows **base-building and potential reversal signs** around 1.36–1.38. Current candles show compression near resistance.
* **H4**: Clean push-up end July → pullback early August → consolidating between 1.3760–1.3830. Higher-lows are holding, hinting bullish continuation.
* **H1**: Structure holding above 1.3780, with repeated liquidity sweeps. Suggests intraday accumulation.
* **Macro**: USD broadly supported by Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance vs CAD tied to oil (WTI volatility). Risk sentiment slightly USD-favorable.
👉 **Bias = Bullish Continuation**, but only above 1.3780 structural hold.
---
## 🔰 Confidence Level
* Structure bias: ✅ HTF accumulation + higher-lows
* Macro alignment: ⚠ Mixed (CAD can strengthen if oil spikes)
* Liquidity maps: ✅ Clear stop-sweeps under 1.3780
* EMA trend (HTF): ✅ Neutral-to-bullish slope
* Session filter: ✅ Best in London/NY overlap
**Final Confidence: 75% (Valid, but must respect 1.3780 as line in sand).**
---
## 📍 Entry Zones
* **Primary Entry**: 1.3785–1.3800 zone (liquidity sweep retest, bullish engulf confirmation on M15/H1).
* **Secondary Entry**: Break/retest above 1.3845 (liquidity grab + clean HTF breakout).
* **Invalidation**: Sustained close below 1.3760 (structure broken).
---
## ❗ Stop Loss Placement
* Conservative: 1.3745 (below recent liquidity sweep).
* Aggressive: 1.3765 (just under recent higher-low).
---
## 🎯 Take Profit Targets
* **TP1**: 1.3855 (recent high, partial close).
* **TP2**: 1.3920 (mid-July swing high).
* **TP3**: 1.3980 (extended HTF liquidity target).
R\:R ranges 1:3 → 1:5 depending on entry precision.
---
## 📊 Risk & Money Management
* Risk = 1% per trade.
* If entering Primary + Secondary, split risk 0.5% each.
* Take partials at TP1 (30–40%), trail stop to BE.
---
## 🧭 Final Execution Strategy
* Wait for London/NY session liquidity sweep → bullish M15/H1 confirmation candle at 1.3785–1.3800.
* Enter long with SL below 1.3760–1.3745 depending on risk appetite.
* Manage with scaling partials → hold runner toward 1.3920/1.3980 if momentum persists.
* If price rejects 1.3845 strongly without retest → **Skip.**
---
✅ **Summary**: USDCAD shows bullish continuation potential off 1.3780–1.3800 demand. Valid plan with 75% confidence. Risk tight; aim for 1:3+. Must skip trade if HTF breakdown below 1.3760 occurs.
SELL USDCAD 18.8.2025Reversal trade order: SELL at M15
Type of entry: Limit order
Reason:
- The price breakout the sub key of M15, confirming it will hit the main key M15.
- Confluence of two timeframes is M15 and H1.
Note:
- Management of money carefully at the price of bottom of M15 (1,38049)
Set up entry:
- Entry sell at 1,38089
- SL at 1,38122
- TP1: 1,38049 (~>1R)
- TP2: 1,37994 (~3R)
Trading Method: Price action (No indicator, only trend and candles)
Bearish reversal?USD/CAD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonaccci retracement and could drop from this levl to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3815
Why we like:
There is a pullback resistanc that lines up with the 61.87% Fbonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3876
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 1.3729
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support.
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USD/CAD - Ascending Triangle (18.08.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3774
2nd Support – 1.3755
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Idea for next week.USD/CAD remains as one of the more attractive major pairs for USD strength as the pair posed a pullback to support at prior resistance following the late-July break of the ascending triangle formation.
I looked at an updated setup in the Tuesday webinar and the shorter-term Fibonacci retracement remains in-play, with price currently testing the 23.6% retracement of that move.
USD/CAD is at a fresh high this morning following the 50% pullback of the prior rally. As looked at in the webinar, that 50% pullback comped well with the USD pullback which had clawed back more than 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the same relevant move. This made USD/CAD look attractive for USD-strength scenarios and despite the fact that the USD set a fresh lower-low yesterday, USD/CAD held a higher-low at a critical spot on the chart.
USD/CAD) Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 4H timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC).
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🔍 Technical Breakdown – USD/CAD (4H)
1. FVG (Fair Value Gap) / Supply Zone
Price is currently trading inside a supply/FVG zone (highlighted in yellow at the top).
Market is reacting to this imbalance area where institutional selling pressure is expected.
2. BOS (Break of Structure)
Earlier, price made a Break of Structure (BOS) on the downside, confirming a bearish shift in market structure.
The current bullish retracement into the supply zone is likely just a pullback before continuation down.
3. Bearish Rejection Expected
From the chart, price is anticipated to reject from the supply zone and start a bearish move.
Projection shows a strong drop toward the target support zone (SSS).
4. Target Point
Final downside target is marked at 1.35847, aligning with the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support zone (SSS).
This zone is a strong liquidity pool where price may hunt stop losses before reversing.
---
Summary
Bias: Bearish
Current Price: 1.38147
Supply Zone (FVG): 1.3800 – 1.3850 (reaction expected)
Target Zone (SSS): 1.35847
Setup: Look for short entries inside supply zone with confirmation.
Mr SMC Trading point
This is a classic SMC setup: BOS Pullback to FVG Liquidity hunt Target
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