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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD FRGNT DAILY FORECAST - FRGNT FUN COUPON FRIDAY📅 Q4 | W50 | D12 | Y25 | 📊 USDCAD FRGNT DAILY FORECAST 💰FRGNT FUN COUPON FRIDAY 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 FX:USDCAD
Long
by JCFRGNT
Bearish continuation setup?Loonie (USD/CAD) could rise to the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance, and could reverse to the 1st support, which has been identified as an overlap support. Pivot: 1.3916 1st Support: 1.3761 1st Resistance: 1.4107 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Short
by IC Markets
USDCAD: Massive Pullback Incoming or Final Trap?USDCAD is reacting from a major demand area at 1.3720–1.3770, which aligns with: • the lower boundary of the yearly ascending channel; • an institutional zone that has been defended multiple times (Q3 and early Q4); • a daily RSI showing relative oversold conditions; • a liquidity cluster below the October lows that has now been swept. The rebound is technically justified, but its sustainability will largely depend on CAD structure (strong in the latest COT data) and on December seasonality, which is historically unfavorable for USDCAD. The base case is a bullish pullback toward 1.3890–1.3930, followed by renewed downside pressure if macro sentiment continues to support the CAD. The daily chart highlights: • Primary trend: still bullish, but undergoing a deep corrective phase. • Midline channel break → bearish acceleration into the demand area. • Current price action: sharp rejection with increased relative volume at the lows (typical structural “spring”). • The 1.3880–1.3930 zone is the first major supply: confluence between previous structure, the last breakdown area, and a psychological pre-pivot region. Key technical levels: Support: 1.3720 (demand), 1.3660 (extreme), 1.3570 (macro support). Resistance: 1.3880, 1.3930, 1.4050. Technical outlook: As long as the price remains above 1.3720, the market favors a corrective rebound. Below 1.3660, price opens the path toward 1.3570. Seasonality – December December is historically a bearish month for USDCAD, with negative readings across 20-, 15-, 10-, and 5-year datasets: • 20-year avg: -0.0014 • 10-year avg: -0.0091 • 5-year avg: -0.0195 (significantly negative) • Only the 2-year pattern shows a more neutral/volatile structure. Seasonality takeaway: bearish bias, suggesting the current rebound is more likely a technical pullback rather than the start of a new trend. COT Analysis (CAD + USD Index) CAD – COT data (Nov 4, 2025) • Non-Commercials increased CAD shorts aggressively (+8,288) while reducing longs (-1,180). → Indicates speculative CAD weakness in recent weeks. • Commercials significantly increased CAD longs (+13,164). → Typical of institutions accumulating CAD at discounted prices. Interpretation: CAD displays a clear divergence: speculators are bearish, while commercials are increasingly bullish. This suggests a potential macro turning point where institutions anticipate medium-term CAD strength. USD Index – COT data (Nov 4, 2025) • Non-Commercials increased both longs (+6,038) and shorts (+5,474). → Polarized market. • Commercials increased longs (+1,188). → Marginal support for the USD. Macro COT conclusion: • CAD: institutional buying pressure. • USD: indecision and polarization. Overall COT bias → medium-term bearish USDCAD, although consistent with a short-term corrective bounce. Retail Sentiment • Short: 37% • Long: 63% Retail positioning is clearly long. Contrarian interpretation: downside risk remains elevated after the pullback. Macro Context • Oil remains volatile but structurally firm → historically CAD-supportive. • The Fed maintains a cautious stance with potential rate cuts in 2026 → structural pressure on the USD. • The BoC, although dovish, may delay cuts relative to the Fed → supportive for CAD in the medium term. Probability 60% – Base Scenario Pullback toward 1.3880–1.3930 before renewed bearish pressure. Confirmations: • Daily close above 1.3820 • Bullish H4 structural shift Target: 1.3890 Extension: 1.3930 Failure level: below 1.3720. Alternative Bearish Scenario – Probability 40% A direct break below 1.3720 → continuation toward 1.3660 and then 1.3570 (macro level). Confirmations: • Pullback failure / squeeze • H4 bullish breakout in oil • Daily rejection on the USD Index. USDCAD is currently rebounding within a broader corrective structure. COT and seasonality do not support a strong bullish reversal, but short-term price action allows room for a move toward 1.39, where institutional interest will likely re-emerge to resume the broader macro bearish narrative. Barring macro shocks, the preferred structure remains: corrective rally → short setup at 1.3880–1.3930 → target 1.3720 and potentially 1.3660.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Bullish reversal?Loonie (USD/CAD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.3821 1st Support: 1.3770 1st Resistance: 1.3909 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Long
by IC Markets
USDCAD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDCAD is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDCAD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Long
by TheGrove
1
Stop!Loss|Market View: USDCAD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the USDCAD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 1.37449 💰TP: 1.39357 ⛔️SL: 1.36519 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Further weakening of the US dollar is likely to be expected in the near future. Against this backdrop, USDCAD is approaching support at 1.37335 (short-term selling could be looked for). At the same time, a promising upward reversal is expected from this area, with a preliminary target of 1.39000. A longer-term move could continue toward 1.40000 and 1.41000. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅
Long
by StopLoss222
LONG USD/CADAs we seek last week, the sharp decline that happened in last Friday which was affected by strong jobs 53 k versus-1.5k , this decline was a trap for loonie then the fed will cut rates with 25 basis points with 90 % confirmation and central bank of Canada will hold rates this week , so the fed rate is still higher and more attractive than CAD after cut off with 1.5% increase for USD ( 3.75% for US 2.25 % for CAD) so still more good for USD to be bullish in the next week
Long
by KPR-Investment
USD/CAD Trade Alert🚨 USD/CAD Trade Alert 🚨 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Type: 🔵 Buy Entry: 1.38553 Take Profit (TP): 🎯 1.39391 Stop Loss (SL): ❌ 1.38041 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 Status: Active 💡 Market Insight: Price holds above the stop, which keeps the buy setup intact. Buyers continue to show interest after defending the lower range. As long as price stays above 1.38041, the path toward 1.39391 remains open. A drop below the stop would signal that downside pressure has taken over.
Long
by Praxis_FX01
Bullish bounce off?USD/CAD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3816 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 1.3769 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.3910 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by Vantage
USD/CAD: Will the Great Divergence Break the Greenback?The financial world stands on the precipice of a defining moment for North American currency markets. The USD/CAD pair hovers near 1.3855, ticking nervously as traders count down to a rare double-header of central bank decisions. December 10, 2025, marks a pivotal divergence point where economic pathways between the United States and Canada split sharply. This is not merely a technical adjustment; it is a fundamental collision of monetary policy, geopolitical strategy, and industrial resilience. The outcome will likely dictate the Loonie’s trajectory for the coming year. Macroeconomics: A Tale of Two Trajectories The macroeconomic landscape reveals a stark contrast between the two nations. The Federal Reserve prepares to slash interest rates for the third consecutive time, targeting a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Markets price this move at nearly 88% probability. The US labor market displays clear signs of cooling, necessitating easier financing conditions to prevent a recession. Conversely, the Bank of Canada (BoC) stands firm. Canada’s economy defied expectations with a robust 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3, crushing earlier forecasts. This resilience compels the BoC to hold rates at 2.25% to prevent reigniting inflation, which remains sticky at 2.2%. Geostrategy: The Fertilizer Chess Game Beyond interest rates, a high-stakes geopolitical trade war complicates currency valuation. The US administration’s threat of severe tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports paradoxically jeopardizes US food security. American farmers rely heavily on Canadian potash, importing over half of Canada’s production. Tariffs here act as a double-edged sword: they aim to punish Canada but simultaneously drive up input costs for the US agricultural sector. This strategic misstep weakens the US Dollar’s purchasing power domestically while forcing the administration to print subsidies, further diluting the currency. Industry Trends: Agriculture Under Siege The agricultural industry sits at the epicenter of this financial storm. The promise of $12 billion in aid to US farmers highlights the structural damage already inflicted by trade barriers. This subsidy model creates a vicious cycle of dependency rather than innovation. While Canadian fertilizer producers face tariff headwinds, their product remains essential, granting them significant pricing power. US farmers face a "margin squeeze" that ripples through the broader economy, softening the US economic outlook and diminishing the appeal of the Greenback relative to the resource-backed Loonie. Management & Leadership: Powell vs. Macklem Leadership styles at the central banks further amplify market volatility. Fed Chair Jerome Powell operates under intense political pressure and conflicting data, forcing a reactionary "data-dependent" approach. His leadership currently signals caution and retreat. In contrast, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem displays a steady hand, anchoring policy to tangible growth metrics like the recent 180.6K job surge. This stability in Canadian monetary leadership attracts foreign capital seeking predictable returns, creating a natural demand for the Canadian Dollar over the politically volatile USD. Business Models: Supply Chain Resilience The trade dispute forces companies to rethink business models. Canadian exporters are diversifying markets beyond the US, strengthening long-term resilience. Meanwhile, US importers face a supply chain crisis, unable to quickly source alternative fertilizer at competitive rates. This rigidity in the US supply chain exposes a critical weakness in the American business model for agriculture. Investors recognize this structural flaw, leading to capital flows that favor the adaptability of the Canadian export sector, thereby supporting the CAD against the USD. Conclusion: The Loonie’s Rebellion The confluence of diverging interest rates and self-inflicted US trade wounds creates a perfect storm for USD/CAD bears. The Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot contrasts sharply with the Bank of Canada’s confident hold, widening the yield spread in favor of Canadian assets. Combined with the strategic failure of fertilizer tariffs, fundamental drivers point toward a weaker US Dollar. Traders must watch the 1.3850 level closely; a break below likely signals the start of a prolonged downtrend for the pair. The divergence is real, and the Loonie is ready to rebel.
Short
by the5erstrading
USDCAD Ascending channel pattern buy on consolidation breakoutUSOIL Technical Outlook – 4H Timeframe USOIL continues to show strong downside momentum, with sellers maintaining control. Price is currently respecting the downtrend structure, and a consolidation breakdown below 59,100 is confirming further bearish pressure. 📉 Key Technical Levels: Immediate Support: 58,300 Next Major Support: 56,400 As always, ensure you are using proper risk management and wait for clear confirmations before entering any position. 👍 Like • Follow • Comment • Share Stay updated for more professional market insights.
Long
by ExpertTraderASK
3
USDCAD H4 | Bullish Reversal Off Key Overlap SupportMomentum: Bearish Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud, however, we can look for a bullish reversal as price is at a crucial level. Buy entry: 1.38811 - Strong overlap support - 161.8% Fib extension - 78.6% Fib projection Stop Loss: 1.3831 - Pullback support Take Profit: 1.3939 - Pullback resistance High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Long
by Tradu