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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD MARKET OUTLOOK📊 USDCAD Institutional Market Outlook 🔷 Monthly & Weekly Structure – Bearish Bias A Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) was formed after a breakaway gap, closing all prior bullish FVGs. This signals strong bearish intent from institutions, with a likely draw toward the next key liquidity level at 1.34210. Similarly, a Weekly FVG, also formed from a breakaway imbalance, is currently acting as an unmitigated supply zone. Historically, FVGs formed from breakaway moves are not revisited until the market completes its delivery to a main liquidity pool — in this case, the 1.34210 level. Price is now consolidating below this weekly FVG, reinforcing a continuation bias rather than reversal. 🔹 Daily Structure – Short-Term Countertrend Rally A bullish Daily FVG has recently formed, suggesting a possible short-term countertrend rally. However, due to the breakaway nature of the weekly FVG, price is unlikely to reach back up to 1.3760 before continuing its bearish path. A probable scenario: price may react from daily demand zones, push into a short-term premium area, then resume its decline toward 1.34210. 🌐 Fundamental Confluence 🟥 CAD Weakness: U.S. tariff policy is placing heavy pressure on the Canadian economy, especially in autos, steel, and oil sectors. Recent SECO reports and tariff-related projections expect a long-term GDP drag of ~2.1%. Although oil prices have slightly rebounded, it's not enough to counterbalance the trade and policy headwinds. 🟩 USD Strength: The U.S. dollar remains supported by global safe haven flows and a resilient macro backdrop. No significant shift in Fed policy tone has emerged, and the USD continues to benefit from relative strength across multiple pairs. | Timeframe | Bias | Reason | | ------------ | ------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Monthly | Bearish | Breakaway FVG + closed bullish zones → draw toward 1.34210 | | Weekly | Bearish | Consolidation below breakaway supply zone | | Daily | Short-term bullish | Countertrend move expected into local premium, likely to fail near 1.3760 | | Fundamentals | Bearish CAD, Bullish USD | Tariff risks + economic divergence
by akilaastc
6
USDCADThe US tariffs have had a mixed but generally weakening effect on the Canadian dollar (CAD) , influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate Current Exchange Rate Context As of July 11, 2025, the USD/CAD rate is around 1.37-1.3698 , with the US dollar strengthening and the Canadian dollar weakening about 0.7% over the past month. Impact of US Tariffs on CAD Strength Trade Exposure: Canada is highly integrated with the US economy, with over 70% of Canadian exports going to the US. Tariffs on Canadian goods or retaliatory tariffs can reduce trade volumes and economic growth in Canada, weakening the CAD. Market Sentiment and Risk: Tariff uncertainties create volatility and risk aversion, often benefiting the safe-haven USD at the expense of commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Commodity Prices: Tariffs can disrupt global supply chains and commodity demand. Since Canada is a major oil exporter, any negative impact on oil prices due to trade tensions tends to weaken the CAD. Interest Rate and Economic Outlook: Trade tensions may lead to cautious monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, limiting rate hikes or prompting cuts, which can reduce the interest rate differential versus the US and weigh on CAD 2. Interest Rates Bank of Canada (BoC) Overnight Target Rate: 2.75% (held steady as of July 9, 2025). Canadian government 10 year bond yield is 3.419% US Federal Reserve Rate: Around 4.5% (market consensus for mid-2025). United states government 10 year bond yield is 4.38%-4.4% The interest rate differential between the US and Canada remains significant, favoring USD, which supports USD strength against CAD. US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Generally higher than Canadian yields, around 4.38%–4.4% (market consensus), maintaining a yield advantage for USD assets. 4. Impact on USD/CAD The higher US interest rates and bond yields relative to Canada make USD-denominated assets more attractive, contributing to the USD’s strength against CAD. Conclusion The US tariff policies in 2025 have contributed to a weaker Canadian dollar by increasing economic uncertainty, disrupting trade, and pressuring commodity prices. This has supported the US dollar’s recent strength against CAD, pushing the USD/CAD rate toward the higher . #usdcad #cad #usd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
US Dollar Strengthens Following Trump’s Tariff DecisionUS Dollar Strengthens Following Trump’s Tariff Decision US President Donald Trump has announced his decision to impose new tariffs: → For Canada, tariffs are set at 35%. They are scheduled to take effect on 1 August, although negotiations may take place before this date, potentially influencing Trump’s final stance. → For many other countries, tariffs may be set at 15% or 20%; → For the European Union, the exact tariff levels have not yet been disclosed. Overall, Trump’s latest comments have added to the uncertainty surrounding the specific tariffs to be applied to each country. The financial markets reacted as follows: → The US dollar strengthened against other currencies (including the Canadian dollar); → Equity markets saw a modest decline. Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD Chart As soon as the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports to the US was made public, the USD/CAD rate spiked sharply (as indicated by the arrow), reaching levels last seen at the end of June. In the hours that followed, the pair stabilised. Taking a broader view, the chart appears to show a triangular formation, which consists of: → A descending resistance line (R); → A key support level (S) around 1.3570. From this perspective, it is worth noting that the bulls’ attempt to break above the resistance line amid the 35% tariff news did not succeed, indicating strong selling pressure. At the same time, the price action of USD/CAD in early July allows us to identify a local support level (marked by the blue line). This suggests that, for now, the pair is consolidating within a formation bounded by the blue support line and resistance line R. However, how long this consolidation will last, and which direction the breakout will take, will most likely depend on the next round of news regarding US–Canada trade negotiations. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25 It’s Fun Coupon Friday! 💸🔥 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily Order block identified ✅4H Order Block identified ✅1H Order Block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USD/CAD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3695 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Stop loss: 1.3740 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3618 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD – July 10 OutlookUSDCAD’s high-risk, high-reward (HRHR) sells from Wednesday are still in play with price currently up 35 pips. Price action remains within the structure as we continue to respect the March trendline, but are now stalling in a tight 4H range. 📍 Key Observations: 1.36647 is acting as strong intraday support Possible retest of yesterday’s or Wednesday’s high could provide another HRHR sell opportunity Break below 1.36527 could open the door for a clean 70-pip move toward 1.35827 🔔 Summary: Patience is essential—watching for either another short-term rejection at resistance or a clean structural break to continue the broader bearish bias.
Short
by Thetraderscollective
USDCAD Entering Bullish Trend on 2-Hour Chart – Key LevelsUSDCAD Entering Bullish Trend on 2-Hour Chart – Key Levels and Analysis The USDCAD pair is showing early signs of a potential bullish trend reversal on the 2-hour chart, as price action has formed a Higher High, indicating a shift in market structure. This pattern suggests that buyers are gradually gaining control, which could lead to further upside momentum if the trend continues. However, in the short term, the pair may still experience some bearish pressure before confirming a full bullish breakout. Current Market Structure and Bullish Indications - The formation of a Higher High signals that the downtrend may be weakening, and buyers are stepping in at higher levels. - If the price holds above recent swing lows, it could confirm the beginning of a new uptrend phase. - However, traders should remain cautious, as a temporary pullback or consolidation is possible before a sustained upward move. Key Support Level: 1.35500 On the downside, 1.35500 is a critical support zone. This level has previously acted as both resistance and support, making it a strong area for buyers to defend. - Bullish Scenario: If the price bounces from 1.35500, it could reinforce the bullish outlook and provide a base for further upward movement. - Bearish Risk: A decisive break below this level could delay the bullish reversal and lead to a deeper retracement toward 1.35000 or lower. Upside Targets: 1.37450 & 1.38000 If the bullish momentum strengthens, the next key resistance levels to watch are: 1. 1.37450 – A break above this level could accelerate buying interest. 2. 1.38000 – A major psychological and technical resistance zone where profit-taking may occur. Short-Term Bearish Possibility Before Bullish Continuation Despite the bullish signals, the pair may still face short-term bearish pressure due to: - Profit-taking near resistance levels. - Potential USD weakness or CAD strength in upcoming sessions. - Market consolidation before the next directional move. Trading Strategy & Key Takeaways - Confirmation Needed: Wait for a strong close above recent highs to confirm the bullish trend. - Support Watch: A hold above 1.35500 keeps the bullish structure intact. - Targets: If bullish momentum continues, 1.37450 and 1.38000 are the next key objectives. - Risk Management: A break below 1.35500 could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to a reassessment of the trend. Conclusion The USDCAD is showing early signs of a bullish reversal on the 2-hour chart, but traders should remain cautious of short-term bearish retracements. The critical levels to watch are 1.35500 (support) and 1.37450–1.38000 (resistance targets). A confirmed breakout above resistance could signal a stronger bullish trend, while a breakdown below support may extend the correction phase. Proper risk management and confirmation through price action will be essential for successful trading in this scenario.
Long
by Brillant_Capital
USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily Order block identified ✅4H Order Block identified ✅1H Order Block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has rejected off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.3704 1st Support: 1.3645 1st Resistance: 1.3741 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bearish reversal?USD/CAD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3695 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Stop loss: 1.3734 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 1.3639 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USD/CAD carving out a bottom?The USD/CAD is poking its head above a bearish trend line that has been in place since mid-May, in one of the first signs that suggests we may have seen a low in the Loonie. As well as the trend line, the 21-day exponential is also now below price, further suggesting that the tide is turning. Key levels Support levels off this daily chart are seen around 1.3695 then 1.3617 Resistance seen around 1.3750 next, followed by the next round handles like 1.38, 1.39 etc. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom
USDCAD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal USDCAD - Classic bearish setup - Our team expects bearish continuation SUGGESTED TRADE: Swing Trade Short USDCAD Entry Point - 1.3688 Stop Loss - 1.3717 Take Profit - 1.3634 Our Risk - 1% Start protection of your profits from lower levels Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
by UnitedSignals
1