USDCNH Trades To Triangle Breakout Targets, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action in the USDCNH and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
USDCNH trade ideas
THE HOLY GRAIL 50K PIP50 pips this market went since we forecasted the move. Expect another 50k more as a measured move right up to the double tops liquidity which support the bearish structure of the chart. We’ll be waiting to catch that move n put it away
Let’s see what happens %)
The offshore RMB may be difficult to break 7The offshore RMB may continue to depreciate, but the extent is limited, and it may be difficult to break 7.
Under the expectation of the appreciation of the US dollar, non-US currencies are generally weak against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB has to depreciate. RMB to remain generally "stable and volatile" in past 10 years. The intention of the Chinese central bank to lead the easing of the domestic economic environment is apparent. China's positive foreign trade figures were favorable to the appreciation of the offshore RMB.
The market has now anticipated and priced in Powell's likely hawkish bias at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this weekend (25-27 August) from 11 August to 23 August. As a result, the USD index has risen by 4.5% (104.30 - 109.00). In the medium to long term, the author believes that it is unlikely that the offshore RMB will depreciate significantly. The CNH/USD will continue to depreciate for the rest of the year, driven by the rising USD, but it may be more challenging to break 7.0000. CNH/USD may be expected to depreciate with a high probability to the max range of 6.900- 6.9500 in the rest of the year, then it is more likely to resume appreciation to around 6.5750.
USDCNH breakoutPrice broke up this triangle📐 and I think there is chance for run to 6.92 and even higher. Setting BUY LIMIT order to previous range high to catch🎣 the pullback. Resistances along the way
ENTRY : local high @ 6.735
STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 6.668
TARGET (TP) : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY LIMIT - STOPLOSS) @ 6.92
REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 2.8
INVALIDATION : when SL level hit
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⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
US Dollar Ready to Resume Rise Against the Chinese Yuan?Following a few months of consolidation, the US Dollar seems to be making some upside progress against the Chinese Yuan.
Fundamentally speaking, a hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish People's Bank of China offer upside potential for USD/CNH. This also follows measures from China's government (about 1 trillion Yuan) to bolster the economy.
In response, USD/CNH is trying to confirm a breakout above the May high (6.8376). Key resistance seems to be the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension (6.8833).
Further gains place the focus on the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at 6.9460 and 7.0353 respectively.
Keep a close eye on the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). These could reinstate the upside focus in the event of a turn lower.
FX_IDC:USDCNH
USDCNH Jan 2022 to 14 Aug 2022USDCNH Jan 2022 to 14 Aug 2022
USD/CNH refreshed the highest level since 2022 yesterday, with short-term support focusing on the May high of 6.8375. After the RSI failed to break through 70 again, it is showing signs of divergence (the high point in May and the high point of the year refreshed yesterday), suggesting that the exchange rate may turn down in the short term, and the key support below is the 20-day SMA moving average.
JICPT| USDCNH is likely to test 7.01Hello everyone. USDCNH has been moving sideways for the past 3 months until the weaker-than-expected July economic data released this week. In addition, the unexpected rate cut to MLF gave a boost to the pair.
The offshore Chinese currency fell sharply against the dollar by over 700 bps. Now, it pulled back from the previous high around 6.83.
Technically, the all my moving averages are heading to the upside, with a quick retest of my long key MA. That may indicate that previous high is likely to be penetrated. By the measure move method, the upper range after the breakout is 7.01. The weaker Renminbi can help China's export, offsetting the impact of sluggish domestic demand. Companies and consumers are reluctant to take on more debt amid fresh Covid flare-ups.
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USDCNH - Dollar is kingFollowing my post on HSI, my focus is also on USDCNH pair. My take is that it is in an upward channel and given the differing monetary policies by the Fed and PBoC, my take is that USD will continue to strengthen. However, we should pay more attention to the Jackson Hole symposium for more insights on the Fed's future rate policies as well as the US labour market which seems to be still red hot.
On the technical front, if the dollar crosses 6.842, there is likely to be greater upside. Else if it closes well below 6.83, then likely to continue the downward trend to the next retracement level. Based on stoch, it appears to be a buying signal but the volume is still weak.
Typical Long USDCNH breakout playUSD tightening policy vs CNH easing policy
Inflation is like an illness, and medicine needs to be tailored to the specific problem. Both countries policies are deployed to aid individual domestic economy. And right now, the Fed has no control over the main driver of rising prices, however data suggest that domestic economy allows for Fed to press on tightening policies while closely monitoring signs of industrial recession. On the other hand, China is behind inflation and GDP target, and PBOC has reiterate on easing monetary policies to focus on lowering cost of covid controls while stimulating effective demands. We expect to see more fiscal aid coming from Chinese government in second half 2022 to support economic growth.
Upcoming U.S PMI and CPI data will give more colors to dollar strength, with stronger data pointing to dollar strengthening together with more liquidity assistance by PBOC, we are likely to see short term USDCNH strengthening towards 6.9x over the next few months; in line with forward premium rate follow by USDCNH retracement in late 2022 due to peak inflation and China domestic recovery leading the economy.
We expect the release of China’s fiscal policy to be the trigger for this possible upcoming breakout of USDCNH, with more injected liquidity into the system that weakens RMB. While dollar side movement had been somewhat priced for 75bps next Fed meeting together with projected Fed Dot Plot, the remaining moving factor ceteris paribus shall fall on RMB side of story.
Squeeze on USD v Chinese JuanThis triangle pattern on the USD v Chinese Juan could mean a significant breakout price move is imminent. I would speculate that the USD is more likely to breakout higher relative to the Juan simply due to poor financial conditions in China with the housing market there in trouble.
USD/CNH should drift higher to USD/CNH 7.0strong USDollar should drift higher 3.6% to test and already seen exchange rate level USD/CNH
A lovely bat pattern for USD/CNHThis pattern is very harmonic with excellent ratios.
It is time for a short order.
USDCNH VERTICAL LEAPFundamental Insight:
- PBOC Easing Mode
- Zero covid lockdown and Increasing new strain case
- Housing market problems
- Forced regulation on big techs
- King dolla is king
UNPOPULAR OPINION USDCNHThings you should not bet against and one major of them is commodity currencies. I have done research based on sentiments and everyone is looking for a crisis out of china to be break its market, especially in the housing market.
This is my personal view based on a group of commodity currencies a reversal in all of them in almost certain. Will this push for a second wave of inflation "YES" not likely to be felt a few year is monetary policies reverse which I see them doing, but if they become more aggressive then risk of uncertainty is extremely high also Risk of emerging markets could be far worse that we imagine.
Long commodities and commodity currencies.
USDCNH BULLISH FLAGInteresting possible bullish set up on USDCNH ahead of today US annual June CPI at 14:30 GMT+2
Buy entries should be triggered in case of hourly session close above the downtrend line of yesterday’s high and confirm the break of the bullish flag continuation pattern, with stop loss below today low at 6.7220 and target around 6.7744, giving an overall R/R of 2.
USD/CHN gets ready for another runA continuation congestion is in the late stages for the Dollar to scream another upleg against the Offshore Yuan
THE HOLY GRAIL SIGNAL measured moved Another fruitful moves seen on this market as mentioned 2 years ago over 5000 pips up !
This update is an continuation of the move up for a measured move swing of high probability
Putting price at 7.0
Where we’ll see if we are going higher or the completion of the bear market either way it’ll b a move to watch n everlasting
USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice.
The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%.
This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
Chinese Yuan Threatens Triangle Support. Is a Break Down Near? USD/CNH eyeing a possible break below triangle support, which may see prices break down, potentially to the rising 100-day SMA.
USDCNH Trading The TriangleIn this update we review the recent price action in USDCNH and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
