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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD - Fundamental Move (18.09.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1744 2nd Support – 1.1704 Fundamental Updates : Fed Chair Powell described this rate cut as a way to manage risks due to a weaker job market, and said there is no need to rush further rate cuts. The Fed's future plans suggest more rate cuts this year, but only one more in 2026. 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
72
Euro can Bounce From Wedge Support and Rally to 1.1930Hello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. The market for the Euro has transitioned from a clear trending phase into a more complex corrective structure after the prior upward channel failed to sustain its momentum. Following a significant rejection, the price broke down and underwent a deep correction, which was ultimately absorbed by the major 1.1430 - 1.4000 buyer zone. This level served as a critical pivot, halting the decline and initiating the current market phase, which has taken the form of a large upward wedge. The price action for EURUSD has since been contained within this new pattern, rotating between its ascending support and resistance lines. Currently, the asset is at a key inflection point, having completed a corrective swing down to test the ascending support line of this wedge. In my mind, this sets up a long, rotational scenario. I expect that buyers will defend this dynamic support. A confirmed bounce from this support line would validate the integrity of the wedge and signal the start of a new rally towards the upper boundary. Therefore, I have placed my TP at 1.1930, a target that aligns perfectly with the resistance line of the wedge. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by LegionQ8
22
Liquidity Timing: Why Session Opens Define the Day’s Direction🔵 Liquidity Timing: Why Session Opens Define the Day’s Direction Difficulty: 🐳🐳🐳 - - - (Intermediate) This article is for traders who want to understand how global trading sessions (Asia, London, and New York) shape intraday price movement. By mastering liquidity timing, you’ll recognize why markets often fake out early, expand mid-session, and reverse into the close. 🔵 INTRODUCTION Markets aren’t random — they move in rhythm with global liquidity. Every major financial center adds a wave of participation, creating unique price behaviors. The session opens often act as turning points or launchpads for the day’s main move. Understanding session timing gives traders an edge in anticipating liquidity grabs, expansions, and reversals. 🔵 THE THREE MAJOR SESSIONS 1️⃣ Asia (Tokyo/Sydney) — The Range Builder Time: ~00:00–06:00 UTC Behavior: Usually low volatility, narrow ranges, liquidity buildup. Purpose: Market sets the “box” for later sessions. 2️⃣ London — The Expansion Session Time: ~07:00–11:00 UTC Behavior: Breakouts from Asia range, liquidity sweeps, trend acceleration. Purpose: Injects strong volume and defines directional bias. 3️⃣ New York — The Reversal or Continuation Time: ~12:00–20:00 UTC Behavior: Overlaps with London, fuels volatility. Often causes midday reversals or extensions. Purpose: Final liquidity grab before daily close. 🔵 WHY SESSION OPENS MATTER Liquidity Injection: New orders flood in as banks and institutions open. Fakeouts & Sweeps: Early moves often target stops before real direction sets. Timing = Structure: Knowing when a session opens helps anticipate when ranges will break or reverse. Key Point: Most intraday trends don’t start randomly — they’re triggered by session transitions. 🔵 HOW TO TRADE SESSION TIMING 1️⃣ Define the Asian Range Mark the high and low of the Asia session. This acts as a “box” for London to break. 2️⃣ Watch London Open Often creates a fakeout → sweeps Asia highs/lows → then drives in real direction. 3️⃣ Prepare for New York Shift NY may extend London’s move or reverse it, depending on liquidity needs. 4️⃣ End-of-Day Fade Late in the session, volatility fades and price consolidates. 🔵 EXAMPLE SCENARIO Asia builds a tight 80-pip range overnight. London open sweeps the range low, trapping sellers. Price reverses and rallies strongly, breaking above the range high. New York continues the bullish move but reverses in the afternoon. 🔵 USING THE NEW YORK OPENING RANGE Of all global sessions, the New York open often brings the sharpest volatility. A simple but powerful way to trade it is by defining the opening range — the high and low formed between 12:00–12:30 UTC on 15min timeframe. Once this 30-minute range is set, it becomes a reference box for the rest of the session: A breakout above the range → signals bullish continuation potential A breakout below the range → signals bearish continuation potential Failed breakouts often lead to strong reversals back inside the range This method works because the first 30 minutes of New York capture a flood of institutional orders, setting the tone for the session. Traders can then watch how price interacts with this “opening box” to identify liquidity grabs and true directional moves. 🔵 ADVANCED TIPS Align session plays with higher timeframe bias (daily trend). Avoid chasing the first breakout — wait for confirmation after the sweep. Use liquidity pools (Asia highs/lows) as magnets. Track economic calendar: London/NY opens often coincide with news. 🔵 CONCLUSION Liquidity isn’t constant — it comes in waves with each global session. By mapping Asia, London, and New York opens, traders can anticipate where traps, expansions, and reversals are most likely to form. Session timing turns randomness into structure. If you learn to respect the clock, you’ll stop chasing moves — and start trading with the rhythm of the market.
Education
by BigBeluga
16
EURUSD – Bullish Technical Outlook Still Intact👋Hello everyone, what do you think about the trend of FX:EURUSD ? As of now, EURUSD is moving as expected, with the pair trading around 1.174 at the start of the week. EURUSD is approaching a significant resistance zone around 1.1800, with the first target at 1.176 already tested. From a technical standpoint, the pair is in a clear uptrend, supported by the trendline and two EMA lines, with strong bullish momentum in play, following the trajectory of an Ascending Triangle pattern. The target to break through remains 1.1800. If the price breaks this level, we could see the next leg of the rally towards 1.1900 or even higher. Watch for a solid confirmation before entering the trade for a safer position. What do you think about EURUSD? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments! Good luck!
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
18
EURUSD: Is the USD Weakness Already Priced In?Is the USD Weakness Already Priced In? The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at this meeting. Right now, the main story is that this expectation is driving the USD lower. But is that really the reason behind the weakness? The USD has often shown weakness no matter the news — weak on good data, weak on bad data, weak when the Fed holds rates, and even weaker now as the Fed prepares to cut. It almost looks like a no-brainer. If everything is already priced in, the USD could drop further right after the Fed cuts rates. Still, if the unusual USD weakness and EUR strength continue, EUR/USD may keep rising. Be cautious though — if it breaks above the red zone, it could be a false breakout before falling again. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
17
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? The pair is moving within an ascending channel, but after reaching a resistance zone, it has entered a corrective phase. We expect the correction and sideways range to continue until the price reaches the support area. From there, a bullish reaction could trigger the next upward move toward higher resistance levels. As long as EUR/USD trades inside the channel and above the support, the bullish outlook remains valid. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
12
EUR/USD - Rising Wedge Breakout @ H1 CMCMARKETS:EURUSD EUR/USD - Wedge Pattern Strong breakout - @ H1 with high volume. Expecting Strong Bearish outlook today and Fundamental also play major role today. "The Fed is still signalling more rate cuts, but at the same time still sees okay growth, which is a positive combination for share markets" The Fed reduced rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, as expected, and indicated it will steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of this year, initially sending the dollar plunging. Support by Likes and Comments. Thank you.
Short
by AM_AlphaTrading
17
EURUSD - Successfully Testing New HighsHello everyone, what do you think about the trend of FX:EURUSD ? EUR/USD has moved as expected, successfully testing the resistance level at 1.180 for the first time. From a technical perspective, EURUSD is moving within an upward price channel, further supported by the momentum of the EMA. The current pullback occurred after EURUSD reached its peak, and as long as the price channel and support levels hold, the target is to continue aiming for higher zones. I’m expecting further upward moves, but what do you think about EURUSD? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
by Kevinn_Nguyen
20
EUR/USD – Ascending Triangle Breakout WatchOn the 4H chart, EUR/USD is forming an ascending triangle, with higher lows pressing against the resistance area near 1.1780 – 1.1800. A confirmed breakout above this resistance could open the path toward 1.1850+ levels, while rejection may lead to another retest of the ascending support trendline. This structure highlights how traders often monitor ascending triangles for potential continuation setups, especially when price consolidates near key resistance. This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
Long
by ProfitMagnet-Pro
15
EURUSD This is its final rally before Bear Market.The EURUSD pair has been rising aggressively within a (blue) Channel Up since the January 13 2025 bottom. The current Bullish Leg started 6 weeks ago when it hit the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) and rebounded. This is a critical buy level as it has supported all similar Channel Up patterns since January 2017. When that broke and a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing came equally fast, the new Bear Market in the form of a (red) Channel Down started. The key now is the 1W RSI, which has started to form a Double Top peak pattern similar to those that led to the tops of February 12 2018 and January 04 2021. What those two have in common is contact with the Lower Highs trend-line, an 8-year Resistance level that EURUSD is targeting now. If the 1W RSI double tops again, we expect another brutal rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line and we estimate that to be around the 1.20000 psychological level. As a result, we call the current rise, EURUSD's final rally on a Bull Cycle that lasted a year. After that, we expect the new Channel Down to lead to the Bear Market that will at least target the top of the 9-year Support Zone. It is a long-term projection but we see 1.06500 getting hit by the end of 2026 - beginning of 2027. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
7
EURUSD - Breakout from Key Resistance Zone👋Hello traders! Have you noticed the impressive surge in FX:EURUSD recently? The pair has been steadily climbing and has surpassed the previous resistance level at 1.177, achieving the target we set in our previous analysis . Looking at the chart, we can expect a potential pullback before the pair continues its upward momentum. This could present an ideal buying opportunity before the next rally. As long as EURUSD holds above the 1.177 support zone, the bullish trend remains intact. The next major target to watch is 1.1900, with even more upside potential if the momentum continues. With solid technical support and continued investor confidence, EURUSD is likely to keep growing. What do you think? Will the rally continue? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! Happy trading!
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
10
EUR/USD Retesting Support Zone for Potential ContinuationEUR/USD has recently broken above the resistance area and is now pulling back towards a fresh support zone around 1.1820 – 1.1830. If buyers defend this area, the pair could continue its bullish momentum towards higher levels. Key points to note: Previous resistance has now turned into support. Price is trading above the 200 EMA, showing bullish structure. A successful retest may open the path for continuation to the upside. Traders should watch how price reacts at the highlighted zone before considering further moves.
Long
by ProfitMagnet-Pro
12
EUR/USD | Supply Zone in Play at 1.179–1.1810 (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 6-hour timeframe, we can see that after dropping to 1.166, the price gained demand again and is now trading around 1.177. Ahead, there is a key supply zone between 1.179 and 1.1810, and we need to carefully watch how the price reacts to this area. The important demand zones are 1.163–1.166 and 1.156–1.159. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
11
EUR/USD Breakout Incoming? COT & Sentiment Point to 1.1850COT Report (09/09/2025) EUR (Euro FX CME): Non-Commercials increased longs (+2,389) and reduced shorts (-3,696) → bullish bias. USD (US Dollar Index): Non-Commercials remain net short (24,750 vs 19,192 longs). Slightly bearish bias on the dollar. 👉 The combination suggests a favorable context for Euro strength against USD. 📊 Seasonality September is historically flat or slightly negative for EUR/USD, but over the last 5 years seasonality shows a recovery in the second half of the month. 👉 This reinforces the idea that downside risk is limited and that pullbacks may offer long opportunities. 🧠 Sentiment Retail traders: 74% short, only 26% long. Classic contrarian signal: retail is short, which supports a long bias. 📉P rice Action & Technicals (H1/D1/W1) Price is moving inside a daily ascending channel (uptrend in progress). Key resistance: 1.1800 – 1.1850 (weekly supply cluster). Main support: 1.1650 – 1.1600 (daily demand zone, RSI reacted). Daily RSI above 50 → positive momentum, not overbought. ✅ Operational Summary EUR/USD shows a favorable context (fundamentals + COT + sentiment) supporting the upside. Technical structure favors a test of 1.1850 resistance. Best strategy: look for long entries on pullbacks or breakouts, with invalidation below 1.1650.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
EURUSD Testing the Wedge, Eyes on Breakdown PotentialPrice action on EURUSD is coiling within a broad ascending wedge, and momentum looks heavy near the upper bound. The repeated rejections at resistance highlight fading bullish energy, and with fundamentals aligning toward USD resilience, the pair could be preparing for a downside break. Let’s break this down step by step. Current Bias Bearish, price action signals downside risk as EUR/USD fails to sustain momentum at wedge resistance and approaches critical support. Key Fundamental Drivers ECB stance: Recent commentary (Patsalides, Kazaks, Simkus) shows caution. ECB members see risks balanced but stress that the next move could still be higher if needed. Fed policy: US data (labor cooling, ISM Services expansion, sticky inflation) keeps Fed in cautious easing mode. The dollar still benefits from safe-haven demand and relative growth strength. Yield spreads: US Treasury yields remain elevated compared to Eurozone bonds, keeping USD attractive. Macro Context Interest rates: ECB signals that cuts are not urgent, while the Fed eyes gradual easing. The relative policy stance favors USD stability. Economic growth: Eurozone growth data remains fragile (Germany flat, France stable, Italy soft). US shows moderate but slowing growth. Commodity flows: Energy prices are softer, reducing pressure on the Eurozone’s import bill but also reflecting weaker global demand. Geopolitical: Tariffs, EU-US trade tensions, and energy security risks remain an overhang. Primary Risk to the Trend A dovish Fed pivot or softer US CPI could weaken the USD, pushing EUR/USD higher through wedge resistance. Conversely, if Eurozone inflation flares up again, the ECB could delay cuts, temporarily supporting the euro. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US CPI release – key for Fed trajectory. ECB meeting minutes and Lagarde’s speeches – signals on rate path. Eurozone PMIs – fresh check on growth momentum. Leader/Lagger Dynamics EUR/USD is a leader within euro crosses, often setting directional bias for EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and EUR/CHF. It also tracks USD momentum, so it can act as a lagger to US data-driven moves that first show up in DXY. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.1692, 1.1585 Resistance Levels: 1.1746, 1.1788 Stop Loss (SL): 1.1788 (above wedge top) Take Profit (TP): 1.1585 (major downside target if wedge breaks) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints EURUSD is tilting bearish as it stalls at wedge resistance and fundamentals lean toward USD strength. The bias points to a potential break lower, with downside targets near 1.1692 and ultimately 1.1585 if momentum accelerates. A stop loss above 1.1788 protects against false breakouts. Traders should keep a close eye on US CPI and ECB communication, as these will dictate whether this wedge finally resolves to the downside or extends consolidation. For now, the watchpoint is clear: hold bias bearish, with 1.1585 as the key profit zone.
Short
by ultreosforex
6
EURUSD is poised for a bearish move. What comes next?EURUSD is poised for a bearish move. What comes next? The pair made a false breakout above the resistance zone around 1.1830, but quickly fell back below, showing weakness. This bearish movement happened after the FOMC meeting. The FED is expected to cut rates 2 more times this year. Probably everything was already priced in advance as long as the price is moving down. It's required to confirm a bit more but so far remains bearish. From our previous analysis the first target at .1729 was reached and EURUSD is set to drop further. If selling pressure continues, the next supports are 1.1670and 1.1610. As long as EUR/USD stays under 1.1830, the bearish outlook remains valid. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
16
Lingrid | EURUSD Trend Extension: Continuation OpportunityThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . FX:EURUSD is trading inside its upward channel, maintaining a sequence of higher lows that confirm bullish structure. Price is currently hovering above the 1.1695–1.1700 support zone, with the upward trendline acting as a critical base for continuation. A successful defense here could trigger a rally toward 1.1805 and potentially the 1.1850 resistance area. However, repeated failures to sustain momentum above mid-channel levels show that buyers face strong resistance overhead. The broader setup still favors upside as long as 1.1690 holds firm. 💡 Risks: A breakdown below 1.1690 would invalidate the bullish channel and expose downside toward 1.1560. Stronger US economic data or hawkish Fed commentary could boost USD, pressuring EURUSD lower. Weakness in eurozone fundamentals could limit buying strength and stall continuation attempts. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
8
EURUSD: Correction will ContinuesHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup. Market Analysis From a broader perspective, we saw a significant bullish impulse on EURUSD after the price broke out of a multi-week upward wedge. This breakout carried the price well above the Support 1 level at 1.1780, culminating in a new local All-Time High before entering a corrective phase. Following that peak, the market has pulled back and is now consolidating. Currently, it appears that the price is attempting to build support for another move higher, likely to re-challenge the recent highs. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is a bearish one, built on the expectation of a failed retest of the recent ATH. I'm looking for the price to make one more push upwards towards the recent ATH. The key signal for this short idea would be a clear and strong rejection from that high, showing that buyers no longer have the strength to continue the trend. Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this failure at the highs. A confirmed reversal would validate the short scenario. The primary target for the subsequent decline is the 1.1795 support zone, which aligns with the Support zone 1 area. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Short
by Ratner
5
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18500.Dear colleagues, the upward movement is not over yet and I think wave “3” is not over yet. At this stage, I believe that the correction has already taken place or will soon end in the support area of 1.16573, then I expect the upward movement to continue to the resistance area of 1.18500. This is a pretty strong area, as this is where the high of the big wave “3” (Red) is located. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
23
Euro will reach seller zone and then start to fallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. The market for the Euro is currently positioned at a critical inflection point, as a prolonged period of consolidation appears to be nearing its resolution. After transitioning from a prior downward channel, the price action for EURUSD has been contained within a large symmetrical triangle, a pattern of contracting volatility. This structure has been defined by a clear descending resistance line and an ascending support line, anchored by the major seller zone and the buyer zone. At present, the asset has rallied from the support line and is now directly testing the upper boundary of this triangle. This area represents a powerful confluence of resistance, where the dynamic trendline meets the horizontal seller zone near the 1.1730 Resistance Level. The primary working hypothesis is a short, rotational scenario, based on the expectation that this resistance will hold. A confirmed rejection from this 1.1730 - 1.1750 area would validate the integrity of the triangle and signal that another major swing to the downside is underway. Therefore, the TP is logically placed at 1.1620 поинтов, a key target located in a high-liquidity area on the path towards the main 1.1575 support level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
16
EUR/USD BEFORE FOMC VIEWOANDA:EURUSD Main Trend: The 4-hour chart clearly shows that EURUSD is in a strong uptrend, confirmed by the ascending trendline. Market Structure: After a breakout above the previous high, the price has created a new demand zone, labelled as "CP - ORDER". This zone is located roughly between 1.17600 and 1.17700. Footprint Analysis: The 1-hour footprint chart provides confirmation of the bullish momentum. It shows large volumes and significant positive delta (more buy orders than sell orders) being executed on the strong upward candles. Key Observation: The most recent bullish candle on the footprint chart (around 20:00) has a very large positive delta (+681) and high volume (12.19K), indicating strong buying pressure is driving the price up. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue. Trading Plan (BUY Plan) Based on this analysis, the primary strategy is to wait for a pullback and look for a buying opportunity, in line with the current upward trend. Entry: Wait for the price to retrace back to the CP - ORDER demand zone, which is around 1.17600 - 1.17700. This area is expected to contain significant pending orders. Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the low of the demand zone, at approximately 1.17100, or as marked on the chart. This position is also below the trendline, providing protection against deeper pullbacks. Take Profit (TP) Targets: Target 1: The most recent high, at around 1.18200. Target 2: You can hold the position to aim for higher levels, following the market's upward momentum. The ultimate target, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, could be the 1.19000 level or even higher. Conclusion This trading plan is a clear long setup based on a combination of technical analysis (uptrend and demand zone) and order flow analysis (strong positive volume and delta). However, you should always keep the following in mind: Make sure the price actually pulls back to the CP - ORDER zone and shows signs of confirmation (e.g., a bullish pin bar, an increase in volume) before entering a trade. Practice strict risk management by adhering to the defined stop-loss level. DXY ANALYSIS IN DONWTREND and High Rate back to Higher OB
Long
by Linda_OneShotTrader
6