EURUSDEURUSD needs some more correction before any further upside.
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USDEUX trade ideas
EURUSD H1 | Bullish bounce in playEUR/USD is falling towards the buy entry, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 1.1727, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 1.1696, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 1.1778, which acts as a swing high resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EUR/USD | From Tariffs to Targets – Testing 1.1800EUR/USD has staged a clean rebound since August as soft U.S. data and dovish Fed expectations weighed on the dollar, while Eurozone resilience added support. July’s pullback was tied to U.S.–EU tariff developments, but momentum has since shifted, with RSI showing further room to the upside.
Key resistance at 1.1800 is now under pressure—holding above here opens the path toward the 1.20 multi-month target. If resistance caps price again, we could see another corrective pause.
The story remains centred on U.S. data surprises and rate-cut expectations, alongside Eurozone growth signals.
EURUSD → Breakthrough of consolidation resistance. Rally?FX:EURUSD ends correction with a breakout of consolidation resistance. The market is waiting for a positive driver in the form of economic news that could support the growth of the euro...
A breakout of the correction (consolidation) resistance has formed. However, the momentum is being replaced by a correction aimed at consolidating in the bullish plane, which could trigger continued growth in the medium term.
The dollar looks weak, and expectations of interest rate cuts are supporting the euro. If the bulls keep the price above 1.17 - 1.172 within the current correction, the price may start to rally to highs...
Support levels: 1.173, 1.1703
Resistance levels: 1.178, 1.183, 1.190
Before continuing to grow, liquidity may be captured relative to the previously broken consolidation resistance. A false breakdown of support at 1.173-1.170 could trigger a resumption of growth towards 1.190.
Best regards, R. Linda!
What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets?What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets?
Systematic risk affects all traders, no matter the strategy or asset class. It comes from market-wide forces—like interest rates, inflation, or geopolitical shifts—that influence entire sectors at once. Unlike unsystematic risk, it can’t be avoided through diversification. This article breaks down what systematic risk is, how it’s measured, and how traders may incorporate it into their analysis.
What Is Systematic Risk?
Systematic risk refers to the kind of risk that affects entire markets or economies, rather than just individual assets. It’s the result of large-scale forces—like inflation, interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical conflict, or economic slowdowns—that ripple through multiple asset classes at once.
A sharp rise in interest rates, for example, tends to push bond prices lower and can drag down equity valuations as borrowing costs climb and consumer spending slows. Similarly, during a global event like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 shock in 2020, almost all sectors saw simultaneous drawdowns. These events weren’t tied to poor management or bad earnings reports—they were macro-level shifts that hit everything.
Because it’s a largely undiversifiable risk, systematic risk is a key consideration for traders assessing overall market exposure. It often drives correlation between assets, particularly in times of stress. This is why equities, commodities, and even currencies can start to move in the same direction during periods of heightened volatility.
So, can systematic risk be diversified against? Only relatively speaking. Traders and investors may shift into defensive positions to limit potential drawdowns (e.g. gold, bonds, healthcare stocks vs tech companies). However, no matter how diversified a portfolio is, it remains exposed to this kind of risk because it’s tied to broader market movements rather than asset-specific events.
Note: systematic risk differs from systemic risk. The systemic risk definition relates to the potential collapse of the financial system, such as in a banking crisis. It is rare but severe.
Systematic vs Unsystematic Risk
Systematic risk is broad and market-driven. Unsystematic risk, on the other hand, is specific to a company or sector. It might come from a product failure, a major lawsuit, or a change in management. For example, if a tech company misses earnings due to poor execution, that’s unsystematic. If the entire sector drops because of a global chip shortage or policy change, that’s systematic.
Unsystematic risk can be reduced through diversification. Holding assets across industries may help spread exposure to isolated events. But systematic risk can’t be avoided by simply adding more assets. It affects everything to some extent.
That’s why traders track both systematic and unsystematic risk—understanding where their risk is concentrated and whether their exposure is tied to broad market movements or individual events. Clear separation of the two may help traders analyse potential drawdowns more accurately.
Key Drivers of Systematic Risk
Systematic risks tend to stem from structural or macroeconomic forces, and while they can’t be avoided, traders can track them to better understand the environment they’re operating in. Below are some of the most common types of systematic risk and how they influence market-wide movement.
Monetary Policy
Central banks play a huge role in shaping market conditions. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive, which tends to slow down spending and investment. That usually puts downward pressure on risk assets like equities. Conversely, rate cuts or quantitative easing often lead to a surge in asset prices as liquidity improves.
Traders closely monitor central bank statements and economic projections, especially from institutions like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank.
Inflation and Deflation
Inflation affects everything from consumer behaviour to corporate earnings. Higher inflation can reduce real returns and push central banks to tighten policy. Deflation, though less common, signals weak demand and falling prices, which also tends to hurt equities. Commodities, currencies, and bonds often react sharply to inflation data.
Economic Cycles
Booms and busts are among the most well-known examples of systematic risk, influencing everything from job creation to earnings growth. During expansions, risk appetite tends to rise. In downturns, investors often shift towards defensive assets or cash. GDP figures, manufacturing data, and consumer spending are key indicators traders watch.
Geopolitical Risk
Elections, wars, trade tensions, and sanctions can drive sharp market reactions. These events introduce uncertainty, increase volatility, and can disrupt global supply chains or investor sentiment.
Market Sentiment and Liquidity
Panic selling or sudden shifts in positioning can cause assets to move together, even if fundamentals don’t support it. During liquidity crunches, correlations spike and markets can move sharply on little news. This is often driven by leveraged positioning unwinding or large institutions adjusting risk.
Measuring Systematic Risk
Systematic risk can’t be removed, but it can be measured, and that may help traders understand how exposed they are to broader market swings.
One of the most widely used tools is beta. Beta shows how much an asset moves relative to a benchmark index. A beta of 1 indicates that the asset typically moves in the same direction and by a similar percentage as the overall market. Above 1 means it’s more volatile than the market; below 1 means it’s less volatile. For example, a high-growth stock with a beta of 1.5 would typically move 15% when the market moves 10%.
Another approach is Value at Risk (VaR), which estimates the potential loss on a portfolio under normal market conditions over a specific timeframe. It doesn’t isolate systematic risk but gives a sense of how exposed the overall portfolio is.
Traders also watch the VIX—often called the “fear index”—which tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500. When it spikes, it usually signals rising market-wide risk.
More complex models like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) use beta and expected market returns to price risk, but some traders use these tools to get a clearer picture of how exposed they may be to movements they can’t control.
How Traders May Use Systematic Risk in Analysis
Systematic risk isn’t just a background concern—it plays a direct role in how traders assess the market, structure portfolios, and manage exposure. By understanding how market-wide forces are likely to affect asset prices, traders can adjust their approach to reflect broader conditions rather than just focusing on technical analysis or individual names.
Position Sizing and Exposure
When systematic risk is elevated—during tightening cycles, political unrest, or global economic slowdowns—traders may scale back position sizes or reduce leverage. The aim is to avoid being caught in a correlated sell-off where multiple positions move against them at once. It's common to see increased cash holdings or a shift towards lower beta assets in these periods.
Asset Allocation Adjustments
Systematic risk also shapes how capital is distributed across asset classes. For example, during periods of strong economic growth, traders may lean into equities, particularly cyclical sectors. In contrast, during uncertain or contractionary periods, there may be a move towards defensive sectors, fixed income, or commodities like gold. Some rotate between assets based on macro trends to stay aligned with the dominant forces driving markets.
Macro Analysis and Scenario Planning
Understanding systematic risks may help traders prepare for potential market reactions. A trader can analyse upcoming interest rate decisions, inflation prints, or geopolitical tensions and assess which assets are likely to be most sensitive. If recession risk increases, they may expect higher equity volatility and reassess exposure accordingly.
Correlation Tracking
As systematic risk rises, correlations between assets often increase. Traders who normally count on diversification may find their positions moving together. Keeping track of these shifts may help reduce false confidence in portfolio structure and encourage more dynamic risk controls.
Systematic Risk: Considerations
As mentioned above, systematic risk is mostly unpredictable and fully unavoidable. There are some other things you should consider when trying to analyse it. Here are a few points traders often keep in mind:
- Lagging indicators: Metrics like GDP or inflation are backwards-looking. Markets often react before the data confirms the trend.
- False signals: Beta, VaR, and the VIX can be useful, but they’re not foolproof. A low VIX doesn’t guarantee calm markets, and beta doesn’t account for real market conditions.
- Uncertainty around timing: Even if the presence of risk is clear, the timing and severity of its impact are hard to analyse with precision.
- Overreaction risk: Markets can price in fear quickly, and traders may misjudge whether a reaction is justified or temporary.
- Diversification assumptions: Assets that usually behave differently may move in sync during stress. Risk models can underestimate this.
The Bottom Line
Systematic risk is unavoidable, but understanding how it moves through markets may support traders in making decisions. By tracking macro drivers and adjusting positions accordingly, traders may respond with more clarity during volatile periods. However, it is important to take into account all the difficulties that systematic risk brings.
FAQ
What Is Systematic Risk?
Systematic risk refers to the type of risk that affects an entire market or economy. It’s driven by macroeconomic forces such as interest rates, inflation, economic health, and geopolitical events. Because it impacts broad segments of the market, systematic risk cannot be eliminated through diversification.
What Is Systematic Risk vs Unsystematic Risk?
Systematic risk is market-wide and linked to broader economic conditions. Unsystematic risk is asset-specific and tied to events like company earnings, leadership changes, or industry developments. According to theory, unsystematic risk can be reduced by holding a diversified portfolio, while systematic risk remains even with strong diversification.
What Are the Five Systematic Risks?
The main categories include interest rate risk, inflation risk, economic cycle risk, geopolitical risk, and currency or exchange rate risk. Each can affect multiple asset classes and contribute to broad market shifts.
Can You Diversify Systematic Risk?
No. While diversification may help reduce unsystematic risk, systematic risk affects most assets. It might be managed, not avoided.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1676
1st Support: 1.1618
1st Resistance: 1.1772
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD | Euro Rejected, Eyeing 1.168 & 1.166 (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price started to drop as expected, correcting down to 1.168. After that move, demand stepped in, and now the pair is trading around 1.1716.
If the price manages to stay below 1.174, we could see another bearish move. The possible downside targets are 1.168 and 1.166. Key supply zones are 1.174–1.178 and 1.179–1.1810.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EURUSD buylimit at key levelHello everyone! Here is a buy limit for us to get into a trade offering us a lower price with Smart Monet Technique, the price lies inside the ICR Silver bullet window, which is already an edge with a FVG inside the zone making it more linear for me. I expect this trade to go very well.
Tighten your seat belts and take the affordable risk, just do manage the risk, CHEERS!
EUR/USD Facing Important Deadlines!The EUR/USD pair is heading into two very important trading sessions in terms of economic data and news.
On the U.S. dollar front, markets are awaiting today, Wednesday, September 10, the Core Producer Price Index (monthly), where expectations point to a decline from 0.9% to 0.3%, and the Producer Price Index (monthly), where forecasts also suggest a drop from 0.9% to 0.3%. The current monthly PPI reading is considered very important because the last reading rose to its highest level since June 2022, and markets are anticipating some declines.
On Thursday, September 11, U.S. inflation data will also be released, with expectations for the Core Consumer Price Index (monthly) to remain steady at 0.3%, and the annual Consumer Price Index to rise from 2.7% to 2.9%. These data carry many important messages for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. If the annual CPI falls below 2.7%, this increases the probability of a U.S. interest rate cut by around 25 to 50 basis points, especially with the weakness in the labor sector.
As for the euro, European markets are awaiting the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, September 11, where expectations point to keeping the interest rate at 2.15%, while attention will be focused on the upcoming economic forecasts of the ECB.
Technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair away from the news and its potential strong impact on the pair’s movement:
The EUR/USD pair traded in a sideways range for a full month between the level of 1.17424 as a resistance line and the level of 1.15742 as a support line, until the level of 1.17424 was breached and a bottom was recorded above it to continue the upward trend.
If the U.S. dollar experiences further weakness against the euro, the current declines are expected to be corrective, aiming to touch the level of 1.16184 before resuming the upward movement again.
Meanwhile, the level of 1.15742 represents an important support line; if it is broken and a bottom is recorded below it on the 4-hour timeframe, this would indicate a trend reversal from bullish to bearish on the 4-hour chart, in line with the downward trend on the daily timeframe.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish dropEUR/USD is rising towards the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 1.1737, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.1780, which is a multi swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.1615, which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bullish breakout in progress?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has broken out of the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1711
1st Support: 1.1584
1st Resistance: 1.1846
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD BUY OPPORTUNITYHello traders, volatility slowly coming back and we already are benefiting from interesting trade opportunities. Here's my point of view about CMCMARKETS:EURUSD
Technically:
This pair last week was very bullish due to TVC:DXY weakness. I personally did a full breakdown explaining the US DOLLAR TECHNICAL BEARISH SETUP. This week price EURUSD started to retrace. near to the daily gap and HIDDEN OB. I personally see more UPSIDE. We had massive liquidity run after CPI released. We might continue up. Price right now is retracing at the H4 GAP. I'd like to see Euro lift from here. As I have been.. and will be until proven otherwise. If we have a DXY WEAK then EURUSD will be very bullish otherwise DXY strength means more downside for EURUSD. Don't forget that volatility still slowly coming back to normal levels & markets still WAITING FOR more fundamentals to have swing trend & a clear direction.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck! MAKE SURE TO STAY STRICT WITH YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish reversal from swing high resistanceEUR/USD is rising towards the sell entry, which is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, and could reverse from this level to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 1.1810, which is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss is at 1.1865, which lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit is at 1.1736, which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EUR/USD | EUR/USD Breaks 1.17 – Eyes on 1.176+ Targets! (READ)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price held at the 1.16 demand zone as expected and managed to climb above 1.17 with confirmation. Currently, it’s trading around 1.173. If the price can break the 1.174 resistance and close above it, we can expect further upside.
The possible bullish targets are 1.176, 1.177, and 1.179.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EUR/USD: Bullish Surge to 1.183?FX:EURUSD is setting up for a bullish move on the 4-hour chart , with an entry zone between 1.16335-1.16650 near a key support and trendline.
The target range of 1.1808-1.183 aligns with the next resistance, offering strong upside potential. Set a stop loss on a close below 1.15740 to manage risk effectively. 🌟
A break above 1.1675 with solid volume could trigger this surge, driven by EUR strength and U.S. data shifts. Watch economic releases! 💡 Ready for this push? Drop your take below! 👇
📝 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry Zone: 1.16335 – 1.16650 (support + trendline area)
❌ Stop Loss: Daily close below 1.15740 to manage risk
🎯 Target Zone: 1.1808 – 1.1830 (next resistance)
Ready for this push? Drop your take below! 👇
EUR/USD - Next Week Direction? (Part 2)CMCMARKETS:EURUSD
What happened since last week In MY PREVIOUS ANALYSIS :
- Price respected the 1.1650–1.1620 demand zone and the 4H EMA base, then pushed higher exactly as mapped. We stair-stepped into the 1.1730 region and briefly printed a new swing high near 1.1742 before consolidating.
- The catalyst was a broad USD pullback after the Fed’s dovish tilt at Jackson Hole. U.S. yields retreated into Friday’s close, and DXY softened, allowing EUR/USD to extend above 1.17.
- Headlines reinforced uncertainty around U.S. policy and tariffs, capping USD rebounds. Meanwhile, the ECB remains cautious but less eager to ease than the Fed, keeping policy divergence supportive for EUR/USD.
Now,
- Fed: Markets lean toward a September cut; the tone is data dependent, with CPI and labor trends key for guidance into the Sep 17–18 FOMC.
- ECB: Decision and presser on Sep 11. With inflation near target but growth subdued, guidance is likely careful—still less dovish than the Fed path, which keeps the divergence theme intact.
- Net effect: Mild EUR/USD bullish bias while U.S. yields drift lower and the Fed is perceived closer to easing.
The trend remains bullish. Why my view still stands:
- Policy divergence remains the principal driver: the Fed is closer to easing than the ECB Sep 11. Together with softer U.S. yields, that continues to favor EUR strength on dips.
- Technically, buyers keep absorbing retracements into 1.1650–1.1620, and the 4H EMA remains a reliable institutional anchor.
What I’m watching next:
- Sep 11 ECB: Any pushback against early easing could help EUR. A surprisingly dovish read would cap rallies near 1.18.
- U.S. CPI and labor gauges into the Sep 17–18 FOMC: downside CPI surprises or softer labor data likely extend USD weakness; upside surprises risk a squeeze back toward 1.1650.
- Tariff/Geopolitical headlines: sources of intraday volatility; manage size around event risk.
Bottom line:
As long as the pair holds above 1.1650, dips are buyable for a continuation toward 1.1800/1.1829. I will avoid chasing into resistance and prefer pullbacks to 1.1690–1.1705 or 1.1650–1.1660, and I’ll switch stance only on a daily close below 1.1650.
So how’s your trade? Mine hit two long take-profits and one tactical short. Remember, consistency beats intensity! Trade with patience, discipline, and confidence in your plan!
EURUSD: Classic Bullish SetupI believe that the EURUSD pair may have the potential to continue its upward movement.
The market has been consolidating for a period within a broad intraday horizontal range.
The breakout of its resistance appears to be a strong bullish indicator.
The next level of resistance is anticipated at 1.1808.
EUR/USD on the 4-hour chart.EUR/USD on the 4-hour chart.
The price is currently around 1.1770
I have drawn a triangle breakout pattern.
The chart shows a target point around 1.1950.
👉 Based on the pattern drawn, the breakout projection suggests the target zone is near 1.1950.
EURUSD: Will the Right Shoulder Spark a Bullish continuation?The chart displays a classic inverse Head and Shoulders formation on the EURUSD pair—a widely recognized reversal pattern signaling potential exhaustion and a shift in market sentiment.
The right shoulder having moved to the neckline suggests a potential breakout. If confirmed by volume and momentum indicators, this could lead to a trend continuation targeting previous high of 1.18299 or Fibonacci extension (target) 1.19004 and final target of 1.21195 .
🔴 Bearish Risk:
Failure to break above the neckline could reinforce the bearish narrative, with price possibly retesting lower support zones. Watch for rejection candles or divergence signals.
I wish you best of trades!!
EURUSD Sell Idea • Trend: EUR/USD has been under pressure recently, with the pair struggling to sustain rallies. Lower highs are forming, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Resistance Levels:
• 1.0800 – 1.0820: Strong resistance zone; recent rejections here indicate sellers are active.
• 1.0850: Key psychological barrier – a close above would challenge the bearish view.
• Support Levels:
• 1.0700: First downside target.
• 1.0650 – 1.0620: Deeper support; break below could accelerate selling.
• Indicators:
• RSI drifting below 50 → momentum favors sellers.
• Moving averages (short-term crossing under medium-term) signaling continued bearish bias.
⸻
📊 Fundamental Drivers
• ECB vs Fed Policy Divergence:
• The Fed remains cautious but resilient U.S. data (inflation, jobs) supports higher-for-longer rates.
• The ECB has turned more dovish, with growth slowing and inflation cooling in the Eurozone.
→ This divergence favors USD strength against the EUR.
• Economic Data to Watch:
• U.S. CPI & Jobs Reports: Strong data supports USD → downside in EUR/USD.
• Eurozone PMIs & Inflation: Weak prints add pressure to the euro.
• Geopolitical Risk: Safe-haven flows into USD (energy prices, global uncertainty) could amplify euro weakness.
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🎯 Sell Scenario Plan
• Entry Zone: Around 1.0780 – 1.0820 (on rallies/retests).
• Targets:
• TP1 → 1.0700
• TP2 → 1.0650
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.0850 (to protect against bullish breakout).
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Summary:
Bias remains bearish for EUR/USD as long as price holds below 1.0820. The technical structure aligns with fundamental headwinds for the euro. Selling rallies into resistance with tight risk management looks favorable.
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Key Points
- International credit rating agency Fitch downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating by one notch from AA- to A+, citing recent political risks and fiscal challenges. However, the agency assessed the outlook as “stable.”
- Russian and Belarusian forces plan to conduct joint military exercises until the 16th of this month in Russia, Belarus, the Baltic Sea, and the Barents Sea. In response, NATO is strengthening surveillance along Europe’s eastern front against potential Russian threats.
- The central bank governors of France, Spain, and Finland expressed concerns over economic growth and the possibility of disinflation, signaling a more dovish stance.
- At the upcoming FOMC meeting starting on the 16th, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Markets are watching closely to see whether the “dot plot” projection for two rate cuts this year will increase to three cuts.
Major Economic Events This Week
+ September 16: U.S. August retail sales, Canada August CPI
+ September 17: Eurozone August CPI, Bank of Canada rate decision, FOMC announcement
+ September 18: Bank of England rate decision
+ September 19: Bank of Japan rate decision
EURUSD Chart Analysis
The EURUSD has shown no clear trend, moving sideways between 1.16000 and 1.18000 for the past two weeks. The key question this week is whether the pair will break above resistance and continue rising toward the 1.20000 level, or fail to do so and retreat back toward 1.15000. At this stage, the overall trend still appears slightly bullish.
EUR/USD UpdateNext move on the way, focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades..!
Confluences & Key Reason:
1.Recently price move in a strong upside channel. It's mean bulls are active.
2.Fresh & unmitigated demand zone still in pending.
3.BISI still in pending.
4.Possible buying move expected from this demand zone.
This is not a financial advice. Confirmation very important. Let's see how it will work.
EUR/USD: Mild Uptrend Remains FavouredHello everyone, EUR/USD is showing technical improvement after several days of consolidation. On the H4 chart, the pair has broken out from the previous sideways zone and currently hovers around 1.171, following a bounce towards 1.174–1.175. The short-term structure has turned more positive: higher lows, price above the thin Ichimoku cloud, and three layered demand FVG boxes below 1.1685 → 1.1660 – a clear sign of active buying. In the near term, 1.174–1.175 remains immediate resistance, while 1.170–1.168 acts as a “magnet” during market fluctuations.
On the news front, the focus this week is the US CPI/PPI data, which directly affects USD and yields, alongside the ECB meeting where commentary on inflation and growth will influence EUR interest rate expectations. Currently, US easing expectations slightly outweigh European ones, giving EUR/USD a mild tailwind for upward movement.
My view: EUR/USD leans towards a mild bullish scenario, prioritising shallow pullbacks above 1.168 before retesting 1.174–1.175. A successful break of this cluster could see momentum extend to 1.180–1.185. Conversely, a close below 1.166 on H4 would weaken the bullish case, potentially returning the market to a broader sideways range.
How do you see EUR/USD unfolding next? Share your thoughts in the comments.
