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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD InsightWelcome, subscribers. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to boost and subscribe. Key Points - Following the FOMC meeting, the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened amid assessments that expectations for the Fed’s rate cuts had been excessive. - U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping described their recent call as “constructive,” and confirmed they will meet at the APEC summit in South Korea at the end of next month. - According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, public sector borrowing from April to August 2025—the first five months of the 2025–2026 fiscal year—totaled £83.8 billion, exceeding forecasts. This marked the largest borrowing since the pandemic in 2020, heightening concerns about the deterioration of the UK government’s finances. Key Economic Events This Week + Sept 23: U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Sept), U.S. Services PMI (Sept), Fed Chair Powell’s speech + Sept 25: U.S. GDP (Q2) + Sept 26: U.S. PCE Price Index (Aug) EURUSD Chart Analysis The pair has been on a steady decline from the 1.19000 level, now hovering around the 1.17000 level. If the trendline support at 1.17000 holds, a rebound toward 1.20000 can be expected. However, if this support breaks, the pair could see further downside toward the 1.15000 level.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Anchoring Your MindsetOperating from a scarcity mindset can be a huge hindrance to your growth, and it often shows up as self-sabotage. When you already know what your setup is, but you allow outside noise to determine your actions for example, you have an idea to trade and just need to execute, but you second-guess yourself you miss the opportunity. Trading looks different for everyone. It is possible to reach success, but the journey will not look the same for all of us. A positive mindset is the starting point. Most of us are shaped by where we come from, often influenced by beliefs formed years earlier. For me, living in scarcity showed up in my trades. Even when I understood the technical side, I still found myself struggling because I wasn’t fully living in abundance. Fighting your old mindset is still part of the journey. You need to be intentional about creating new beliefs that support your growth, rather than letting old ones hold you back. Ways to counteract scarcity: Accept that you do deserve wealth, progress, and success. Embrace an abundant mindset by choosing growth over fear. Practice acceptance—acknowledge where you are now, and commit to moving forward. It’s like trying to accept a gift with closed hands you first need to let go of the scarcity mindset to receive what abundance has to offer. Regardless of your background, you can choose to shift. It’s like trying to accept a gift with closed hands you first need to let go of the scarcity mindset to receive what abundance has to offer. Regardless of your background, you can choose to shift. Practical steps to anchor your mindset: 1.Growth-Oriented Mindset: Be intentional about how you approach challenges. 2.Abundant Mindset: Break free from limited thinking. Believe that there’s more available and that you can thrive. 3.Build Capacity: Practice accumulation—not only money but also habits, consistency, and discipline. This allows you to sustain progress. 4.Create Rules: Protect what you’ve gained. Journal your emotions before and after trades to stay grounded. Changing your beliefs may sound small, but it’s powerful. The first step is acknowledgment. Speak to yourself daily affirm your progress before you even open your charts. Little by little, this rewires your perspective and builds the foundation you need to thrive.
by hlengiengwane
EURUSD(20250922) Today's AnalysisMarket News: Federal Reserve Board Governor Milan: Expects continued rate cuts in the coming months and will work to convince other policymakers to cut more quickly; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Two more rate cuts this year would be appropriate. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.1755 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.1892 1.1795 1.1780 1.1731 1.1716 1.1692 Trading Strategy: If the price breaks above 1.1755, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price being 1.1780. If the price breaks below 1.1731, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price being 1.1716
Short
by GoldenBigAge
EURUSD VIEW For 22nd SEP to 26th SEP 2025 ECON DATA Mon 22th Sep: AUD RBA GOV SPEAKS. Tue 23rd Sep: GBP BOE GOVERNOR SPEAKS, EUR, GBP, USD FLASH PMI, RICHMOND MANUFACTURING INDEX. Wed 24th Sep: USD FED CHAIRMAN SPEAKS, AUD CPI, EUR GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE, USD NEW HOME SALES. 25th Sep: CHF INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT & PRESS CONFERENCE, USD GDP, DURABLE GOODS ORDERS & EXISTING HOME SALES. Fri 26th Sep: CAD GDP, USD CORE PCE PRICE INDEX & REVISED UOM INFLATION EXPECTATION. Magnified View (YEARLY/MONTHLY TIME FRAME) Trend: Congestion with an upside bias. Price Target: 1.2065 / 1.2285 / 1.2325 / 1.2565 by year-end. Key Levels: Above 1.1400 / 1.1280. Outlook: Pullback or consolidation expected before October. Macro View (WEEKLY/DAILY) Trend: Limited uptrend. Price Target: 1.2000 / 1.2100 while above 1.1565 / 1.1400. Signals: All signals point up except RSI (divergence on Weekly, turning down on Daily). Recent breakout higher appears weak, suggesting lack of strength. Timing: Upside momentum may last until end of October, but reversal could occur earlier. Key Levels: Watch 1.1565 / 1.1400 for potential breakdowns. Bias: Cautiously bullish until end of September or until key support breaks. Micro View (HOURLY/15M) Current Move: Correction downward from 1.1920, with Hourly and 15M waves synchronized in a down move. Projection: Potential downside to 1.1600 / 1.1580 before next wave up. Immediate Support: 1.1660-1.1610, but pullback may be weak due to lack of strength. Alternative Scenario: If 1.1850 / 1.1920 holds, expect consolidation before breakout within 1.1680-1.1610 / 1.1920. TRADING IDEAS: Buy on Dips: Near 1.1660-1.1610, Stop <1.1550, Target @ 1.1780 / 1.1840-1.1880.
by RAJOOC
EURUSD: 1.19 Hit — Sellers Step In?Hi traders and investors! This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). Buy patterns formed in the 1.1835–1.1830 zone, and then price reached 1.1900, as anticipated in the previous review. Got lucky on this one (see previous post). Let’s take a closer look—this is an interesting setup. Weekly chart The last three buyer bars showed elevated volume but no result — the closes are inside the wicks. Daily chart The buyer broke above the initiative’s upper boundary at 1.18299 with a wide-spread, high-volume candle, but the seller pushed price back below 1.18299 and engulfed the buyer’s candle. A sideways range is likely forming; a seller initiative is projected with a target at 1.15278. There’s a sell signal on the chart — very interesting. The Dollar Index, by the way, is turning in a mirror image. Wishing you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
Contradictions on EURUSD (21 September 2025)The way I see the market right now - basically neutral on monthly; - more long on weekly, but also a lot of reasons to be short; - probably the next daily candle will be short, yet the price is in a discount when you look at the internal trend; - 4h is over all long, but the internal is short and same is the fractal; Conclusion: There are contradictions again What does it mean? Even if the higher timeframe look's long, the lower one look bearish Does it mean I will do nothing? hell yes I do nothing before the lower timeframe get in alignment with the higher one. important lesson: - the more reasons you have to go in a certain direction, the more chances win; - don't try to guess where the market wanna go, let the market show you and then take action.
by stoianovionut22
eurusd 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels. Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
Oil Wars and OPEC+ Price InfluencePart 1: Oil as a Geopolitical Weapon Oil and Global Power Ever since oil replaced coal as the primary energy source in the early 20th century, it has been intertwined with national security, industrial growth, and military power. The British Navy’s decision in 1912 to shift from coal to oil was a strategic move that highlighted the importance of securing reliable petroleum supplies. From World War I to the Iraq wars, oil has dictated alliances, interventions, and even regime changes. Countries with abundant oil—like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Venezuela—have leveraged their reserves for geopolitical clout. Conversely, nations dependent on oil imports, like the United States, China, Japan, and India, have structured much of their foreign policy around securing energy supplies. Oil Wars: A Historical Overview “Oil wars” are not always literal wars fought exclusively for oil, but rather conflicts where oil plays a central role in the motives, strategies, or outcomes. Some major examples include: World War II (1939–1945): Control of oil fields was critical to the Axis and Allied powers. Germany’s failed push into the Caucasus (Operation Blue) was motivated by access to Soviet oil. Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor was partly triggered by U.S. sanctions restricting Japanese access to oil. The Arab-Israeli Conflicts & Oil Embargo (1973): In response to Western support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War, OPEC Arab members imposed an oil embargo. Prices quadrupled, exposing the world to the geopolitical leverage of oil producers. The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988): Both nations targeted each other’s oil infrastructure. Tanker wars in the Persian Gulf disrupted global supplies. The Gulf War (1990–1991): Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait was directly linked to control of oil wealth. The U.S.-led coalition intervened not only for sovereignty but also to secure global oil markets. The Iraq War (2003): While debated, many analysts argue that oil interests influenced the U.S. decision to invade Iraq, reshaping Middle Eastern energy politics. Syrian Civil War (2011–present): Control of oil fields and pipelines became central for different factions, with global powers eyeing energy routes as well. Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2014–present, escalated 2022): While largely territorial and political, oil and gas pipelines have been weapons in Russia’s economic standoff with Europe. Sanctions on Russian crude reshaped global trade flows. These conflicts illustrate that oil wars are not simply about owning oil fields—they are about controlling global supply routes, ensuring market access, and weaponizing energy for diplomatic or military leverage. Part 2: Birth and Evolution of OPEC Why OPEC Was Formed By the mid-20th century, the oil industry was dominated by Western multinational corporations—the so-called “Seven Sisters” (Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron, Gulf, Texaco, Mobil). They controlled exploration, production, and pricing, while oil-producing nations received minimal returns. In response, five countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela—founded the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960 in Baghdad. Their goal was simple: to coordinate policies and secure fairer revenues. OPEC’s Early Years Initially underestimated, OPEC gained prominence after the 1973 oil crisis when Arab members used production cuts and embargoes as political tools. This event showcased OPEC’s ability to shock the global economy. Oil prices skyrocketed, inflation surged worldwide, and industrial nations realized their vulnerability. In the 1980s, however, OPEC’s unity was challenged. Internal rivalries, cheating on quotas, and external pressures (like North Sea oil discoveries) weakened its control. Yet, OPEC retained the role of a “swing producer,” particularly through Saudi Arabia, which used its massive spare capacity to balance markets. Part 3: OPEC+ and the Modern Oil Market The Birth of OPEC+ By the 2000s, OPEC alone could not fully control prices due to the rise of non-OPEC producers, especially Russia, the U.S. (shale oil), and Canada. In 2016, in the aftermath of the oil price crash triggered by shale oil oversupply, OPEC allied with non-OPEC producers, most notably Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mexico, forming OPEC+. This alliance was critical in rebalancing markets through coordinated production cuts. Russia brought immense weight to the group as the world’s second-largest crude exporter, while Saudi Arabia retained its role as leader. How OPEC+ Influences Prices OPEC+ does not directly set prices; instead, it influences them through production targets. By cutting supply, they push prices up; by raising production, they cool markets. Key mechanisms include: Production Quotas: Members agree on collective output ceilings. Spare Capacity: Saudi Arabia and UAE often adjust supply to stabilize markets. Market Communication: Even announcements and forward guidance move prices, as traders react to perceived scarcity or abundance. Emergency Meetings: OPEC+ convenes when crises—such as the COVID-19 pandemic or Russia-Ukraine war—disrupt markets. Major OPEC+ Interventions 2016 Production Cuts: After oil crashed below $30 per barrel, OPEC+ cut 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd), reviving prices. COVID-19 Crash (2020): Oil demand collapsed, and at one point, U.S. crude futures went negative. OPEC+ enacted historic cuts of nearly 10 mbpd to stabilize markets. Russia-Ukraine War (2022): With sanctions on Russia, OPEC+ resisted Western pressure to raise output, choosing instead to support Russia and maintain stability for producers. Prices surged above $120 before stabilizing. 2023–2025 Cuts: OPEC+ has continued voluntary cuts, particularly by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to defend price levels against slowing global demand and rising U.S. shale output. Part 4: Oil Wars Meet OPEC+—A Symbiotic Relationship Oil wars and OPEC+ decisions often overlap. For instance: During the Iran-Iraq War, OPEC struggled to maintain unity as members fought each other. The Gulf War pushed OPEC to stabilize supply after Kuwait’s oil fields were set ablaze. The U.S.-Russia standoff over Ukraine has forced OPEC+ to navigate geopolitical divisions while maintaining production discipline. Thus, OPEC+ not only manages economics but also absorbs the shocks of oil wars, sometimes exploiting them to strengthen its influence. Part 5: The Economics of Price Influence Why Prices Matter Oil is not just a commodity; it’s a macroeconomic driver. Prices affect: Producer Nations: High prices boost revenues for OPEC+ states, funding budgets and political stability. Low prices create deficits and unrest. Consumer Nations: Importers like India, China, and Europe face inflation, trade deficits, and currency pressures when oil rises. Global Trade: Since oil is priced in dollars, higher prices strengthen the U.S. dollar and worsen debt burdens for emerging markets. The Price Band Strategy OPEC+ has often targeted a “comfortable” price band, usually between $70 and $100 per barrel. Too low hurts their revenues; too high accelerates renewable adoption and incentivizes rival production. The art of OPEC+ strategy lies in maintaining this balance. Part 6: Challenges Facing OPEC+ Despite its success, OPEC+ faces growing challenges: U.S. Shale Oil: Flexible and responsive, U.S. shale producers ramp up output when prices rise, capping OPEC+’s influence. Energy Transition: With the world shifting to renewables, long-term demand for oil may peak within decades, pressuring producers to maximize current revenues. Internal Unity: Not all OPEC+ members comply with quotas. Political rivalries (Saudi-Iran, Russia-Saudi tensions) threaten cohesion. Geopolitical Pressures: Western nations often accuse OPEC+ of manipulating markets, sometimes threatening antitrust actions. Global Economic Slowdowns: Recessions and crises, like COVID-19, reduce demand, testing OPEC+’s ability to respond. Part 7: The Future of Oil Wars and OPEC+ Looking ahead, oil will remain strategically vital even as renewables grow. Three possible scenarios unfold: Continued Relevance: OPEC+ maintains its dominance through discipline and coordination, ensuring prices stay profitable. Fragmentation: Internal rivalries and external competition weaken OPEC+, reducing its control. Transition Era Wars: As global demand slows, competition for shrinking market share could trigger new oil wars, especially in regions like the Middle East and Africa. At the same time, OPEC+ is exploring cooperation in renewable energy investments, hedging against a post-oil future. Yet for now, the cartel remains the single most important force in shaping global energy markets. Conclusion The history of oil is the history of power, conflict, and economic influence. From wars fought over fields and pipelines to the coordinated strategies of OPEC+, the price of oil has never been left to free markets alone. Instead, it has been molded by both bloodshed and diplomacy. Oil wars remind us of the destructive potential when energy becomes a weapon of conflict. OPEC+ illustrates the stabilizing—or destabilizing—impact of collective price management. Together, they show that oil is far more than fuel; it is leverage, influence, and survival. As the world transitions toward cleaner energy, the influence of oil may eventually decline. But in the foreseeable future, oil wars and OPEC+ price influence will remain at the core of global economics and geopolitics—deciding the fates of nations and the rhythm of the world economy.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
EURUSD - 21/9/2025Due to the weakening of the dollay DXY there has been a bullish sentiment with EUR.. price has pulled back to an initial zone on the 4hr caused by a doji with imbalance above it. I am looking for a reaction from this zone to continue the HTF bullish sentiment. +ve: 1. the top zone was broken suggesting further bullish price action is coming 2. price at doji now -ve: 1. the extreme zone is just below this area Alternative trade: - if price hits my SL then i will watch the extreme zone for a confirmation entry and not jump it till i see that - price may break the Higher low marked under the extreme zone and close under it (not wick). if it does then it may mark a bearish reversal for the time being and i will look for a short entry.
Long
by AlpenglowTrader
EUR/USD UpdateEUR/USD Update We use advanced data that counts the start of the cycle and all important key levels. On the low time frame, EUR/USD is pulling back after rejecting the 1.1848 resistance zone. Key levels: 1.1760 – 1.1762 → current support area. Holding above this keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. 1.1848 → major resistance and confirmation level for continuation of the main uptrend. A close above this would signal strength for higher targets. If price breaks below 1.1760, downside pressure could increase, with 1.1665 as the next important support. Cycle level: 1.1530 is the critical long-term support. EUR/USD must hold this level to remain in the green cycle. 📌 Summary Above 1.1760 → bullish structure can continue. Breakout above 1.1848 → confirms strong uptrend continuation. Below 1.1760 → correction risk, targeting 1.1665 support. 1.1530 → cycle must-hold level for long-term trend.
Long
by SatochiTrader
EURUSD : LiesMaybe when any of you who have been playing for some time now would have realised that in this game, there are a lot of lies being told. No. 1 is Elliot Wave - I am sure by now you would agree with me that the D is far better. No. 2 is, of course, the favorite Trendline. I can show you why, but I think I'll keep this to myself. No.3 is the Demand & Supply zone as well as the volume profile. Previously, I had been a keen follower. Nowadays, it is better to use something else. The answer to No.1 can be seen above. Answers to No.2 and No.3 can also be found above if you look closely. Whatever it is, once you decide to play this game, it will take a while to learn. Many would have given up. Just remember, it is full of lies out there. So, just be VERY careful. Good luck.
by i_am_siew
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 19, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session of the previous week, the Euro successfully retested the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.177 and displayed significant upside momentum, reaching and completing the Outer Currency Rally at 1.187, with Key Resistance noted at 1.181. Following this completion, the Euro reversed its course and experienced a sharp decline, ultimately resting at the Mean Support level of 1.173. It is imperative to highlight that the current market dynamics indicate a likelihood of continued downward movement from recent price levels. Attention should be directed towards additional support targets established at 1.169 and 1.162. Conversely, the present price action suggests a potential retest of the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.177 and Outer Currency Rally at 1.187, which will lead to a substantial pullback from these upward targets.
by TradeSelecter