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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD: Bearish Control Holds Below Trendline Resistance ZoneEUR/USD is trading just beneath the descending trendline, showing repeated rejection near 1.16675 and signaling sustained seller strength. The pair remains within a broad descending channel, with each rally met by strong resistance near the upper boundary. A break below 1.1600 could invite fresh downside pressure toward 1.15400, and possibly 1.15100 if momentum accelerates. Broader sentiment stays bearish as long as price holds below 1.16970, especially with the macro backdrop favoring USD strength.
Short
by RTED_Investing
EUR/USD | Breaks Higher After CPI Data – Next Stop 1.17?By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that after an initial rise, price corrected to 1.15765, then gained strong buying pressure and climbed up to 1.165 so far. Following today’s CPI report , which came in lower than expected, the euro strengthened and the U .S. dollar weakened . I expect EUR/USD to continue its upward move, with the next target at 1.16710 . If price breaks above this level, the following targets are 1.16815 and 1.16950. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
10
EURUSD: Buyers Preparing for a Potential Reversal MoveHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup. Market Analysis After a prolonged bearish trend that followed the formation of a clear Head and Shoulders pattern, EURUSD has transitioned into a range-bound consolidation. The market structure suggests that sellers are losing momentum, as the price has established strong support near the 1.15550 area, forming a key demand zone where buyers have shown repeated interest. Recently, the market created a descending triangle formation, with price action coiling between the Triangle Resistance Line and Triangle Support Line. The current positioning shows that EURUSD is testing the lower boundary of this structure — an area that aligns with both historical support and the bottom of the range, forming a strong confluence zone. My Scenario & Strategy In my view, this setup provides an interesting long opportunity if the support around 1.15550–1.1600 continues to hold. I’m looking for a bullish reaction or confirmation signal (such as a strong breakout candle or retest) from the Triangle Support Line. If buyers successfully defend this area, I expect the price to rebound upward, breaking through the descending Triangle Resistance Line and initiating a new bullish leg within the broader structure. My first target (TP1) for this move is the 1.17570 resistance level, which represents a key zone of prior supply and a natural technical objective for the next upward rotation. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
6
EURUSD at yearly top: reversal play in placeEURUSD reached critical level and with bearish shooting star on weekly that we saw recently, daily downtrend (price started to make lower highs on daily) we are likely to see a move to 1.12 next weeks. If price would hit 1.20 there would be a potential of reversal on weekly and monthly charts what is unlikely if consider interest rates. Hence I will be looking for short trades on minor timeframes. Price will not touch or trade above 1.20...1.19+ area is yearly top (very max, and it rejected from there already but might spike until 1.195 again - I dont exclude that). Ultimately it will moving to 1.12. Hence I recommend to follow lower highs on daily - they act as safe stops for shorts. Since downtrend lasts since 2008 (over 15 years). So 1.20 is very solid and important historic resistance now. I dont exclude of course that major geopolitical event as World War III might change it. But as things are now its unlikely. For educational purposes only.
Short
by ICFX
1
EURUSD WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE .EURUSD EXCHANGE RATE WEEKLY CLOSE @ 1.16258 EU10Y =2.625% ECB RATE DETAILS Deposit facility rate: 2.00% Main refinancing operations (MRO) rate: 2.15% Marginal lending facility rate: 2.40% The head of the European Central Bank (ECB) is Christine Lagarde. The upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 30, 2025, hosted by Banca d'Italia in Florence, Italy. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision on that day around 13:45 CET, followed by a press conference at 14:30 CET. Market expectations heavily favor no change in rates at this meeting given recent ECB signals and the current economic outlook. Christine Lagarde is expected to continue leading the ECB until the end of her term in late 2027, with discussions ongoing about her successor possibly being from Germany. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA DETAILS US10Y =4.003% FEDERAL FUND RATE = 4.0%-4.25% the current federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve is in the range of 4.00% to 4.25%, following a 25 basis points rate cut in September 2025. This cut marked the first reduction in interest rates for 2025, prompted by signs of a weakening labor market despite inflation still being above the Fed's 2% target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which directs U.S. monetary policy, projects two additional 25 basis point rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, most likely at the upcoming meeting on Wednesday 29th 2025 by 7:00pm Federal Funds Rate 4.00% 4.25% FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference This outlook reflects precautions amid a moderated economic activity environment, slower job gains, and inflation concerns. The head of the Federal Reserve is Jerome Powell, Powell continues to guide the Fed through complex economic conditions including inflation management and labor market monitoring. INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL= (EUR-USD) 2.15%-(4.0%-4.25%)=(-1.85%-2.1%) FAVOUR USD BOND YIELD DIFFERENTIAL=(EURO-USD )=(2.625%-4.003%)=1.378% FAVOUR USD BUT EURO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS STABLE OFFSETTING BONDYIELD AND INTEREST. The EUR/USD exchange rate movement is influenced significantly by the interest rate differential and bond yield differential between the Eurozone (ECB) and the US (Fed), as well as the uncovered interest parity (UIP) theory. Interest Rate Differential The interest rate differential (IRD) between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank drives currency value shifts. The Fed federal funds rate stands at 4.00%-4.25%, with an expectation of further cuts. The ECB main refinancing rate is at 2.15%, having paused rate cuts. This widening differential favors the USD in carry trade strategies since higher US rates attract capital seeking better returns, resulting in USD strength versus the EUR.​ Bond Yield Differential Similarly, bond yields between US Treasury and Eurozone bonds play a crucial role. US 10-year Treasury yields are generally higher than Eurozone 10-year Bund yields, reinforcing the USD's relative attractiveness. This yield gap reflects differing monetary policy stances and economic outlooks. Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) UIP theory states that expected changes in exchange rates offset interest rate differentials to prevent arbitrage. In practice, if US interest rates remain higher, the USD should appreciate versus EUR to restore parity in forward-looking returns. However, market dynamics, geopolitical risks, and trade flows can cause deviations from UIP in the short to medium term. CARRY TRADE ADVANTAGE the carry trade favor USD but any rate cut from the next FOMC MEETING WILL ERODE GAINS AND EURO STABLE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BACKED MY MARKET STRUCTURE KEEP EURO BUY AS AN OPTION. TRADE HISTORY IN CONTEXT. EURUSD on weekly time frame descending trendline connecting Monday 29th 2018,monday 11 jan 2011 feb,and may 2011 finally came back in 2025 and rejected on the weekly descending trendline again at 1.18912 and we close the week on eurusd loss at 1.16258 rate in the fx window. key demand at 1,4754 will be watched key demand floor at (1.10275-1.10851) the application of Fibonacci 50% retracement of that rally will be in the zone 1.10563 as a key buy zone should the federal reserve rate cut gets flip against euro. #EURUSD #EU10Y #US10Y #DOLLAR
by Shavyfxhub
BUY SETUP x2Analysis: Price is showing signs of accumulation after an extended bearish move. Liquidity below 1.15680 has been swept, and the market is currently reacting to the first reaccumulation zone. However, an unmitigated higher-timeframe demand remains below — giving two possible smart money re-entry points. Trade Plan: Scenario 1 – Shallow Reversal (Aggressive Buy): Entry: 1.16000–1.15680 (current reaccumulation zone) Stop Loss: Below 1.15500 Target 1: 1.16400 Target 2: 1.16800–1.17200 Scenario 2 – Deep Sweep (Confirmational Buy): If price breaks below 1.15600, wait for liquidity sweep into 1.15400–1.15300 demand zone Entry: Upon strong bullish displacement from demand Stop Loss: Below 1.15150 Target: Same as Scenario 1 Concept: Both setups follow Smart Money Accumulation Logic — where the first entry aims to catch the early reversal, and the second (if triggered) confirms deeper liquidity sweep before the major move. If the first fails, the second setup represents refined entry after manipulation.
Long
by DreamsForx
EURUSD(20251027) Today's AnalysisMarket News: ① September's US CPI fell short of expectations across the board, leading traders to bet on two more Fed rate cuts this year. ② White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated the data was "excellent," indicating slowing inflation and easing pressure on the Fed. ③ The White House stated that inflation data may not be released next month, a first for the time being. Technical Analysis Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.1625 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.1673 1.1655 1.1643 1.1607 1.1595 1.1577 Trading Strategy: If the market breaks above 1.1643, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price being 1.1655. If the market breaks below 1.1625, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price being 1.1607
Long
by GoldenSpaceship
2
EU is almost ready to go upHi traders, Last week EU went down some more and made a correction up. So next week we could see another downmove and after that more upside from the bullish Daily FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for price come into the bullish Daily FVG and reverse. After an impulse wave up and a correction down, look for a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower time frame to trade longs. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
1
EUR/USD – Monday Swing Setup | Weekly & Daily P.O.I in Focus EUR/USD | Monday, Oct 26th Welcome traders! 👋 I’m glad to have you here — we’re all learning and growing together in this amazing trading journey. Let’s dive into today’s EUR/USD swing analysis 👇 🧠 Weekly & Daily Outlook On the weekly timeframe, EUR/USD remains in a bullish structure, indicating the broader trend is upward. On the daily timeframe, price is in a bearish corrective phase, showing short-term downward pressure. For today’s trading, key levels have been identified: Weekly P.O.I (Point of Interest) and Daily P.O.I — these will guide potential swing entries. 🎯 Monday Scenarios Scenario 1: Price reacts to the Daily P.O.I zone, then moves toward the Weekly P.O.I. After absorbing liquidity at this level, the main downward move can begin — aligning with the short-term trend. Scenario 2: Price moves from the OBS (Order Block Support) zone toward the P.O.I zone, where it can gather liquidity. From there, the main bearish trend may continue. 💡 Note: There could also be short-term long opportunities if liquidity is taken above key OBS zones, but the primary trend is bearish. 📌 Educational & Premium Notes The market is never 100% certain — always wait for confirmation before entering trades. Use proper risk management. Be aware of upcoming economic news this week affecting the USD. This analysis is valid for Monday only. Premium POI Insight: Based on the 1H range identified, you can spot Strong Highs and Weak Lows as potential POI for short entries. POI includes: Ordered Blocks (OBs), Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and Unmitigated Weak zones & etc. These zones can be used to define ranges for high-probability short trades with proper confirmation. 💬 Share your thoughts below! Do you see the same setup forming, or are you watching a different swing pattern? 📘 Educational Note: This analysis is for educational and illustrative purposes only. Always follow your own plan, confirm with your strategy, and manage risk carefully. Success in trading comes from discipline, patience, and consistency. 💪 🚀 Empowering traders through clarity, confidence & clean charts. Follow 👉 parisa_tl for more SMC setups and weekly insights 💙 #EURUSD #forexanalysis #smartmoneyconcepts #smcstrategy #forexeducation #priceaction #tradingpsychology #liquiditytrading #forexsetup #eurusdforecast #mondayanalysis #forexcommunity #marketstructure #fxtrader #eurusdstrategy #forexmentor #technicalanalysis #forexcharts #supplyanddemand #forexsignals #smartmoney #fxinsight #smccommunity #forexlife #tradingview #swingsetup #weeklypoi #dailypoi #orderedblocks #fairvaluegaps #premiumpoi #1Hrange
by parisa_tl
EUR/USD Bullish Roadmap — Resistance, Risk, and Reward Levels😂 EUR/USD: The Great "Thief" Wealth Heist Map (Swing/Day Trade) 🤑💸 🎯 Asset: EUR/USD - The Euro vs. U.S. Dollar Forex Fiesta! 📈 Strategy: Swing/Day Trade with a Thief-Style Bullish Plan 🚨 The Master Plan: Bullish Bandit Breakout! ✅ Bullish Confirmation: We’re riding the bullish wave with a pullback to the Kijun-Sen (Ichimoku Cloud’s trusty moving average) for confirmation. This is our signal to jump into the heist! 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: The Kijun-Sen pullback signals strength, so keep your eyes peeled for price action aligning with this level to confirm the trend. 🕵️‍♂️ Entry: The "Thief" Layered Limit Order Ambush 💡 Thief Strategy: We’re setting up a sneaky layered limit order approach to maximize our entries. Stack those buy limit orders like a pro! 📍 Buy Limit Layers: 1.16800 1.17000 1.17200 1.17400 ⚙️ Pro Tip: Feel free to add more layers based on your risk appetite — the more, the merrier (but stay sharp, thieves!). 🎯 Entry Flexibility: You can enter at any price level within this range, but layering ensures you’re grabbing the best deals in this volatile market. 🛑 Stop Loss: The Thief’s Escape Plan 🔐 Stop Loss: Set at 1.16600 to keep your capital safe from the market’s sneaky traps. ⚠️ Note: Dear Thief OG’s (Ladies & Gentlemen), this is my suggested stop loss, but it’s your heist! Adjust based on your risk tolerance and take the money at your own risk. 🎯 Target: Dodging the Police Barricade Trap! 🚨 Take Profit Target: Aim for 1.18700, where a strong resistance zone (aka the "Police Barricade") awaits, combined with an overbought signal and a potential trap for the unprepared. 💥 Why This Level?: Historical resistance + overbought conditions = a perfect spot to cash out before the market pulls a fast one! ⚠️ Note: Dear Thief OG’s, this is my suggested take-profit, but you’re the boss of your loot. Secure profits at your own discretion and escape with the bag! 💰 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation Kings) To make this heist a success, keep an eye on these correlated forex pairs (all in USD): FX:USDJPY : The yen often moves inversely to EUR/USD. If USD/JPY is dropping, it could signal USD weakness, boosting our bullish EUR/USD plan. FX:GBPUSD : The pound and euro often dance together. A bullish GBP/USD could reinforce our EUR/USD setup. OANDA:USDCHF : Another inverse mover. A falling USD/CHF could confirm USD weakness, supporting our bullish bias. Key Correlation Insight: Watch for USD strength/weakness across these pairs to validate our EURUSD breakout. If the USD is weakening broadly, our bullish heist is more likely to succeed! 🧠 Key Points for the Heist 📊 Technical Confirmation: The Kijun-Sen pullback is our green light for the bullish trend. 🕵️‍♂️ Layered Entries: Use multiple buy limit orders to catch the best entries and spread risk. 🚨 Risk Management: Stick to your stop loss and take-profit levels, but adjust based on your trading style. 👀 Market Traps: Watch out for the resistance at 1.18700 — don’t get caught by the overbought trap! 🔗 Correlation Check: Monitor USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF for broader market context. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” Disclaimer: This Thief-Style trading strategy is just for fun and entertainment purposes. Trading involves risks, and you should only trade with funds you can afford to lose. Always conduct your own analysis and consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions. #️⃣ #EURUSD #ForexTrading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ThiefStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #KijunSen #ForexHeist
Long
by The-Thief
EURUSD| Maintaing Structure & Awaiting Final DeliveryHigher-timeframe structure continues to hold firm, keeping our bullish narrative intact. Last week, price mitigated key 4H levels and confirmed continuation through mid-timeframe order flow — giving the precision entry we were anticipating. From entry, price has respected every structural checkpoint and is now approaching the final 5-minute high that must be breached for full delivery. This zone represents the last liquidity pocket before completion of our projected target range. At this stage, it’s not about forcing new positions — it’s about letting structure deliver. All confirmations remain aligned: higher-timeframe momentum supports continuation, and lower-timeframe reactions are maintaining bullish flow without displacement violations. We’ll continue to monitor the 5-minute range for any final mitigation before the push through that high. Once breached, we’ll evaluate potential exhaustion or continuation into premium territory. Patience and precision — execution is already done, now it’s about trusting the system and waiting for delivery. Let’s finish strong. ⚡️
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD Set To Fall! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1627 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1589 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1