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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD Approaching the Magical 1.20 LevelEUR/USD Approaching the Magical 1.20 Level The EUR/USD chart is showing something truly fascinating right now. After a strong bullish wave, the pair corrected perfectly to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , a classic level where many reversals take place. That correction gave birth to what we can now call the second bull wave. ⭐ Here’s my favourite part: If this current bullish leg reaches 1.20, it will be exactly equal in size to the first bull wave . That means we would have two identical bullish impulses, a rare and powerful technical symmetry. But there’s even more significance to the 1.20 level: Central Banks have talked about it. Both the ECB and the FED have highlighted this level in the past. Weekly resistance (blue line) sits right there. A technical wall that has been respected before. Psychological level. Round numbers like 1.20 always attract attention and often act as magnets for price. All of this makes 1.20 a level where we can expect fireworks. Either EUR/USD will meet strong resistance and reverse sharply, or it will break through with real strength and open the door to much higher levels. For now, the trend of this second bull wave is very clear, and as long as price holds above the trendline, the natural target remains 1.20. Any pullback into that rising trendline could provide interesting buying opportunities with a target near 1.20. Once we finally get there, though, it might be time to switch hats: sellers could find great opportunities to ride potential rebounds down from 1.20 . The reaction in that zone could be huge. 🚀 In short: Buy near the trendline, targeting 1.20. Sell near 1.20, looking for a strong reaction. This setup combines Fibonacci, symmetry, trend structure, and psychology, all aligning at the same place. A trader’s dream! 👉 If you enjoyed this idea, don’t forget to hit follow for more! Otherwise, this might be the last time we meet on your feed 😉
Long
by TopChartPatterns
8
EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 🔮✨EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 💵 🎯 Q4 2025 Forecast & Range • Base-case: EUR/USD around $1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, drifting toward ~1.20 by year-end. • Bull case: Faster US slowdown, Fed cuts, euro resilience → test 1.25+. • Bear case: Fed stays hawkish, euro weakens → drop toward 1.15 (with risk down to 1.10–1.12). Upside scenario 🚀: Fed cuts early, ECB steady, risks ease. EUR/USD breaks 1.20, retests 1.22–1.25 zone, option gamma squeezes add momentum. Downside scenario ⚠️: US data strong, Fed stays sticky, crisis drives safe-haven USD. EUR/USD drops below 1.15 → targets 1.10–1.12. On balance: Technicals & positioning favor base/bull outcome. EUR/USD above DMA cluster, sentiment allows more upside. Break >1.18 turns 1.20 into support, opens 1.22–1.25 zone. Invalidation = sharp drop below 1.15. Core thesis: The EUR/USD appears set for a higher range into late 2025 as U.S. dollar exceptionalism fades 💵➡️💶. Markets price a Fed pivot – several rate cuts penciled in by early 2026 – against an ECB that is nearly done easing. That narrows the US–EU rate gap and should weaken the dollar 📉. At the same time, softer US growth/inflation and global portfolio shifts away from US assets may further tilt the balance toward the euro 🌍. Conversely, any U.S. data surprises or policy hiccups could bolster the greenback ⚡. Our baseline view sees EUR/USD around 1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, roughly mid‐range of consensus forecasts 📊. 📉 EUR/USD daily chart (2023–2025) with key support at ~1.15 and resistance near 1.18–1.20. The pair has traded in a ~1.14–1.18 range since early 2025. A decisive break above 1.18 could target ~1.20–1.22 upper trendline, while a drop below 1.15 might reopen ~1.10. ________________________________________ 🔍🌐 Macro & Policy Drivers • 💡 Fed vs. ECB monetary policy (10/10): By late 2025 the Fed is widely expected to start cutting rates possibly two 25bps cuts in Q4 2025, terminal ~3.5% by 2026, whereas the ECB has nearly finished its easing cycle. A shrinking interest gap ECB depo ~1.75%, Fed funds ~3.5% supports the euro. In short, Fed pivot = USD softening. • 📊 US economic momentum (9/10): Any further slowdown or disinflation in the U.S. will prompt Fed easing sooner, undermining the dollar. Conversely, surprisingly strong US data inflation above target, resilient GDP/jobs could keep rates higher longer, capping EUR/USD gains. • 🇪🇺 Eurozone fundamentals (8/10): Europe’s recovery – aided by lower energy costs – is improving. Eurozone GDP is running around ~1–1.5% and inflation is near target, so the ECB likely pauses on cuts. Any signs of renewed growth or fiscal stimulus in the EU e.g. German budget support would bolster EUR. On the other hand, fresh euro-area weakness or political instability could dent the euro. • 🏛️ US political/fiscal factors (7/10): Trade and tax policy continue to influence flows. A reported US–China tariff “ceasefire” has already eased pressure on global trade, but any renewed tariff battles could renew safe-haven USD demand. Meanwhile, US fiscal pressures debt ceiling fights, deficit spending or threats like Section 899 taxing foreign holders of US assets could undermine confidence in the dollar. • ⚔️ Geopolitical risks (6/10): War and geopolitical events tend to drive safe-haven flows. For example, any de-escalation in Ukraine/Middle East risk would remove a bid under USD and help EUR. Conversely, a severe global shock or “risk-off” event e.g. new conflict could rerate USD up. • 📅 Seasonality & flows (4/10): Historically, EUR/USD often sees end-of-year inflows year-end rebalancing and sometimes a modest Q4 rally. Some seasonal analyses note late-November/December strength institutions locking in positions. Weaker USD around year-end if it materializes would amplify this. • 📉 Options and positioning (4/10): Large options strikes and dealer hedging can accentuate moves. For example, heavy call skew on EUR/USD tends to make gains self-reinforcing via delta-hedging. Conversely, if open interest clusters into puts at key levels, dips could be cushioned. ________________________________________ 📈🧭 Technical Roadmap EUR/USD is currently in a multi-month range ∼1.14–1.18. The recent price action shows anchored VWAPs and moving averages 20/50/100-DMA ≈1.153–1.168 converging in that band. • 🚀 Resistance: Clear supply sits ~1.18–1.18 top of range. A daily close above ~1.182 could trigger a move toward 1.20–1.22. Above 1.22, next fib-derived targets near ~1.25. • 🛡️ Support: Immediate support is the 1.161 pivot 50-DMA and then ~1.153 100-DMA. A break below ~1.153 would expose ~1.147 and open 1.10–1.12 psychological and last year’s lows. Below ~1.10, USD strength could dominate. • ⚡ Momentum: RSI and ADX are modest, implying the range could persist until a trigger. A bullish path would need clear Fed dovish hints to break out. A breakout could show the classic “impulse → pause → trend” rhythm. ________________________________________ 🌀🤖 Advanced Models & Cycles Quant techniques also point to a stronger euro ahead: • Fourier-cycle analysis of FX data shows multi-month oscillations (~1–2 years). Mean-reversion cycles suggest the early-2025 USD bounce might flip into a euro-positive Q4. • Neural-network/ML models trained on macro + technical inputs often flag Fed/ECB divergence and seasonality. Academic LSTM studies have shown strong results for EUR/USD direction forecasting. ________________________________________ 🚀 Key Catalysts (Ranked 0–10) 🔑 • 🔟 Fed rate path: The timing/magnitude of Fed cuts is THE driver. Early or larger Fed cuts vs. ECB hold would lift EUR/USD. • 🔟 U.S. economic data: Inflation surprises CPI, PCE and jobs/GDP data move expectations fast. • 🔟 ECB stance: ECB rhetoric and inflation. Stability or hawkishness boosts EUR. • 🟫 US political/fiscal moves: Trade policy, deficit fights, and Section 899 proposals could weaken USD. • 🟩 Eurozone growth & policy: Strong EU growth or fiscal stimulus = bullish EUR. Severe slowdown = bearish EUR. • 🟨 Geopolitical shocks: Escalation boosts USD; de-escalation helps EUR. • 🟦 Energy/commodity prices: High oil hurts EU, boosts USD. • 🟧 Seasonal flows: Q4 rebalancing often lifts EUR modestly. • 🟪 Options positioning: Dealer hedging around strikes magnifies moves. • ⬛ Euro-area politics: Local risks e.g. Italian budgets, German politics. ________________________________________ 🏦📊 Analysts & Institutional Forecasts • JP Morgan: ~1.20 by Q4 2025, ~1.22 mid-2026. • ING: ~1.20 end-2025, ~1.22 in 2026. • UBS: 1.21 end-2025, 1.23 mid-2026. • Morgan Stanley: ~1.25 by Q2 2026 bull case 1.30. • Goldman Sachs: ~1.20 (12M). • Consensus: ~1.15 reflecting caution if Fed cuts are delayed. Summary: The prevailing view is a weaker dollar into 2026. Most big banks have upgraded EUR/USD targets since 2024. Consensus for Dec 2025 clusters 1.15–1.25, with top banks leaning 1.20+.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
54
EUR/USD is poised for a significant moveHey everyone, it's Ken here! Looking at the EUR/USD chart on the H2 timeframe, I have to say, things are looking pretty solid. The price is moving around, but notice how it's climbing slowly and steadily. This tells me the buyers are getting active and feeling bullish. That said, I'm not jumping in just yet. I'm waiting for confirmation before making a move. My target is a buy towards 1.1880, but I want to see the price pull back to the level I’ve marked first. Once it does, I’ll be keeping an eye out for volume increases and a solid candlestick pattern to confirm it's go-time. What do you guys think? Drop your thoughts in the comments, I’d love to hear what you think!
Long
by Kenn_Nguyen
6
EURUSD: Ready to Break HigherHello traders, EURUSD is currently supported by both fundamentals and technicals. Fundamentals: The Eurozone PMI for September hit a 16-month high, signaling that the economy remains in expansion mode. Meanwhile, the USD is weakening as the Fed shows caution toward cutting interest rates. These factors are giving the euro strong upward momentum. Technicals: On the chart, price is consolidating around the 1.1770 – 1.1800 zone, which aligns with Ichimoku cloud support. This is the “accumulation zone” before a potential breakout. If the bullish momentum continues: TP1: 1.1840 – the nearest resistance. TP2: 1.1870 – the extended target if a breakout is confirmed. Strategy: Wait for a pullback to the lower support zone (1.1770 – 1.1800) for entry. Favor Buy setups following the bullish trend, with stop losses placed below support.
Long
by ShadowReaper_
6
EURUSD: More Growth Potential 🇪🇺🇺🇸 As I predicted earlier, EURUSD nicely bounced from a major daily support. Analyzing how strong was a bullish reaction that, I think that there is more growth potential here. On a daily time frame, the price formed a bullish imbalance candle and a double bottom with a confirmed change of character on a 4H. The next strong resistance is 1.1827. It feels like it might be reached soon. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
3
EUR/USD - U.S Government Shutdown ? 📊 Setup: EUR/USD has successfully broken out of the descending channel on the H1 timeframe. Price is holding above the breakout level, supported by the Ichimoku cloud and a nearby demand zone. With potential U.S. government shutdown news weighing on the dollar, EUR/USD shows strong upside potential. 📈 Trade Plan: Buy Zone: 1.1710 – 1.1730 (support zone & breakout retest) 1st Resistance Target: 1.1837 2nd Resistance Target: 1.1891 Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above support zone and channel breakout. ✅ Support Factors: Clear Channel Breakout on H1 Confluence with Ichimoku bullish bias Fundamental support: Possible U.S. government shutdown → weaker USD outlook Strong demand zone cushioning downside #EURUSD #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ForexSignals #FXTrading #Euro #USD #Breakout #TradingView ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading. 💬 Support the Analysis: If this setup adds value, don’t forget to Like 👍, Comment 💬, and Follow ✅ for more timely updates.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
5
EUR/USD Forecast: Market Shifts Toward Bearish PressureThe pair has shown a strong upward run earlier this month, but momentum slowed down as sellers stepped in with consistent pressure. Recent movement reflects a corrective phase, with price action shifting into a more cautious and volatile rhythm. Short-term activity shows fluctuations suggesting indecision, while overall conditions lean toward sellers gradually gaining control. If this pressure continues, the market may extend its decline in the upcoming sessions.
Short
by XAU_EMPIRE
3
Potential bullish continuation ahead?EUR/USD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1774 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 1.1690 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.1877 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
2
EURUSD – Bears Still in Control!EURUSD has been overall bearish, trading within a clear descending channel. After rejecting the 1.1950s, price broke structure and shifted momentum to the downside. At the moment, price is retesting a strong structure zone that aligns with the upper red trendline of the channel. This area acts as a confluence resistance. As long as EURUSD trades below this zone, the bears remain in control. I’ll be looking for short opportunities from here with the next bearish impulse in mind. If this structure is broken upward, only then would the short-term bias start to shift. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down. Do you think EURUSD will respect this resistance, or could we see a breakout to reverse the trend? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Short
by TheSignalyst
6
EURUSD is poised for a bearish move. What comes next?EURUSD is poised for a bearish move. What comes next? The pair made a false breakout above the resistance zone around 1.1830, but quickly fell back below, showing weakness. This bearish movement happened after the FOMC meeting. The FED is expected to cut rates 2 more times this year. Probably everything was already priced in advance as long as the price is moving down. It's required to confirm a bit more but so far remains bearish. From our previous analysis the first target at .1729 was reached and EURUSD is set to drop further. If selling pressure continues, the next supports are 1.1670and 1.1610. As long as EUR/USD stays under 1.1830, the bearish outlook remains valid. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
25
EURUSD – Bearish PressurePEPPERSTONE:EURUSD With the DXY showing renewed strength, PEPPERSTONE:EURUSD has started to retreat after recovering the weekly fractal resistance at 1.1829 (July 1st) and establishing a fresh intraday resistance at 1.1818. Price is now placing pressure on the 1.1726 support, a key level to watch in the short term. Downside Scenarios A confirmed break below 1.1726 could trigger a deeper retracement, aligning with harmonic and Fibonacci projections. The critical area in focus is 1.1627, which represents a confluence zone for multiple technical patterns. Harmonic & Fibonacci Alignment A bullish Alt-Bat pattern projects completion at the 113% Fibonacci extension, centered around 1.1627. A symmetrical AB=CD structure also points precisely to the 113% golden extension at 1.1627. This convergence strengthens the probability of a technical reaction if price reaches this zone. Broader Implications Should bearish momentum persist, the downside move could extend further toward the weekly fractal support at 1.1574, a level that has historically attracted strong buying interest. EURUSD is at a pivotal stage: sustained pressure below 1.1726 would shift attention to 1.1627, where significant harmonic and Fibonacci confluence may provide the foundation for a bullish reversal attempt.
Short
by Andre_Cardoso
1
EURUSD: Price May Continue To Fall Inside WedgeHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup. Market Analysis From a broader perspective, the price of EURUSD has shifted into a bearish phase after a prior Upward Channel failed and broke down. This reversal led to the formation of the current Downward Wedge, a pattern that has been guiding the price lower through a series of lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is at a critical decision point. After bouncing from the lower part of the wedge, it has rallied correctly and is now directly testing the descending resistance line of the formation. This is a key area where sellers have repeatedly shown strength in the past. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is based on the expectation that this Downward Wedge is a continuation pattern and the dominant downtrend will resume. I'm looking for the price to be rejected from the wedge's resistance line. A confirmed failure to break higher would be the key signal that the next impulsive move down is about to begin. Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this rejection. A confirmed reversal would validate the short scenario. The primary target for this move is the 1.1615 Support, which aligns with the major Support zone. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Short
by Ratner
1
EURUSD Fundamental Outlook🚨 Current Mood: - Powell’s cautious Fed stance = USD support 🦅 - Germany’s Ifo dropped again = EUR weakness 🇩🇪 - ECB not hawkish enough, still open for cuts = neutral / soft EUR 🏦 📊 Positioning: - CFTC shows crowded EUR longs → risk of squeeze ⚠️ - Retail traders still buying dips → contrarian bearish 🚫 🔑 What to Expect - Bullish drivers: 🔼 Strong EU PMIs, upbeat ECB tone, weak U.S. jobs/inflation. - Bearish drivers: 🔽 More weak EU data, ECB easing hints, hawkish Fed lines. 🎯 Sentiment Snapshot 👉 Macro tone: Bearish tilt for EURUSD 👉 Pros: already long, risk for downside flush 👉 Retail: net long (contrarian bearish) 📌 Conclusion: Right now, EURUSD is tilted bearish unless Euro data surprises to the upside. Keep eyes on EZ PMIs & U.S. data prints. Sellers may have the edge in the short run. ⚡
Short
by ClearTradingMind
1
The Gartley at play? EUR/USD making a move...I have been building short positions since end of June/early July based on my original trade idea (which is still open) ....However, I noticed a potential harmonic pattern on the weekly about 3 weeks ago and this strengthened my conviction to keep and add additional shorts when we consolidated around the 1.1800+ price zone. Although I am a chart pattern trader, I'm not a traditional harmonic trader but certain price action stands out to me and this looks like one playing out. If this does qualify as a Gartley in play, I noticed in past patterns that when the B - C leg is shallow, the price tends to exceed C and eventually A,...BUT when the B to C wave is lengthened, price tends to drop and stall half way of the pattern before continuing the ultimate trend (In this case Bullish). I'm still looking for my original target zone of 1.1200 - 1.1100 and if we do trade there, I will be looking for long positions as I believe the DXY (U.S. Dollar) is going to get hammered in early 2026. I'm not sure what the fundamental catalyst will be but looking at the long term charts, this seems like a strong possibility. This will set up a nice 1000+ pip trade for the EUR/USD Bulls. To avoid getting too ahead of myself, I'd be looking at the first hurdle right now which is 1.1500 and stay capped below 1.1750 - 1.1800.
Short
by InternalTraderNYC
3
EURUSD Long: Rally Continues in Ascending ChannelHello, traders! The prior price auction for EURUSD was dominated by a wide consolidation range, bounded by the demand zone 2. Within this range, a new bullish structure began to form as an ascending channel, which eventually gathered enough momentum to break out and confirm a new uptrend, shifting market control to the buyers. Currently, the price action continues to be guided by this ascending channel. Following a recent test of the upper price levels, the market has entered a corrective phase. The auction is now pulling back towards a significant confluence of support, located near the 1.1740 DEMAND level, which also aligns with the channel's dynamic support line. My scenario for the development of events is a continuation of the uptrend after this correction completes. I expect the price to find strong support at the confluence of the channel's demand line and the 1.1740 - 1.1760 DEMAND ZONE. In my opinion, a confirmed bounce from this area will signal the end of the pullback and trigger the next impulsive move higher. The take-profit is therefore set at 1.1865, an intermediate target within the channel's structure. Manage your risk!
Long
by heniitrading
6
EURUSD 4h Bullish Scenario🔎 Technical Analysis • Trend Context: EUR/USD has been trading in a sideways-to-upward channel, consolidating between 1.1730 support and 1.1918 resistance. The recent bounce near support suggests buyers are stepping back in. • Key Support Zone: The 1.1730 – 1.1750 area has acted as a strong floor multiple times. Bulls defended this zone again, signaling accumulation. • Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance sits at 1.1918, which has capped rallies before. A clear breakout above this zone opens the path toward 1.2000 – 1.2050. • Candlestick Behavior: The last few candles show rejection of the downside and strong wicks pointing to buying pressure, aligning with your bullish view. ________________________________________ 📈 Trade Setup (Bullish Bias) • Entry Zone: Around 1.1790 – 1.1800 (current price levels) • Stop-Loss: 1.1730 (below strong support & invalidation point) • Take Profit 1: 1.1918 (range top & marked resistance) • Take Profit 2: 1.2000 – 1.2050 (psychological barrier & extension target) • Risk/Reward: Approx 1:2+, favorable setup ________________________________________ 🛡 Risk Management • 💰 Partial Profit Booking: Take partial profits near 1.1918 to secure gains before testing higher resistance. • 🔒 Trailing Stop: Once TP1 is hit, trail stop to breakeven (1.1790) and then move higher to lock profits. • 🚫 Invalidation: A 4H close below 1.1730 would negate the bullish bias and suggest renewed downside. ________________________________________ ✅ Summary EUR/USD is showing strong bullish momentum off support, with upside potential toward 1.1918 and possibly 1.2000+ if bulls sustain momentum. The range structure favors dip buying as long as price stays above 1.1730.
Long
by SupertradeOfficial
3
Thursday-Friday-Monday EU Trading Setup Mark the Thursday candle on Thursday. Determine the direction upward or downward of the day (60pips movement in Thursday). Put the volume profile and mark the price. Wait for Monday, if the price came back to the price then make your entry. If the price came back on the other day except for Monday, ignore the setup. Your stop loss should be at 0.6% price change of opposite direction, TP1 at 0.6%, and TP2 at 1.2% same direction (as per Thursday). Remember if price came back in Friday, wait for Monday. If the price came back in Tuesday or any other day then forget about it.
by RRW_SRE
2