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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD to 1.7045 SoonHello everyone, Based on the current price action across different timeframes and considering the upcoming potential zones for a bullish move in the OANDA:EURUSD , I expect the price to rise initially toward 1.17045, where it may then decide its next direction (either upward or downward). Given that my analysis is based on the 1-hour timeframe, this bullish movement is likely to occur in the coming days. This analysis is not a trading recommendation. Please make sure to apply proper risk management if you choose to use it.
Long
by Yazdanian
EURUSD Review October 13 2025Short-term price movement ideas. After the monthly liquidity sweep, we received a full confirmation on the weekly chart, which allows us to work in a bearish direction with the goal of updating the monthly low. At the moment, the main zone of interest for the continuation of the downward movement is the weekly zone. If this zone is tested and confirmed on a lower timeframe, we can then consider opening short positions. Currently, we have a weekly low sweep and a 4H confirmation, which forms a local zone of interest for short-term trading. In case the 4H low is swept within the FVG and we receive confirmation on a lower timeframe, we can consider opening long positions with the target of updating the 4H high. Be flexible, adapt to the market, and the results will come quickly. Good luck to everyone.
by SFASignals
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Severe Bearish Scenario or Reversal "Should political and economic instability persist in France and the UK in the coming week, and the weakening trend of the Euro continue, we can expect EUR/USD to fall to the range between 1.145 and 1.151. However, if the Euro stabilizes concurrently with the price reaching this area, this upcoming resistance could cause the price to reverse to higher levels, reaching 1.18 and possibly beyond (indicated by the dashed orange line). But, if this range is broken and the price continues its downward movement, the second technical area, between 1.12 and 1.13, will be our second zone that could prevent further decline. Nonetheless, in the event of a breakout of the first zone, trading at the second zone increases our risk, as the trend leans toward a downtrend, aligning with the monthly timeframe. Despite this, if the second area manages to reverse the price, and a suitable trend emerges on the 4-hour timeframe, buying setups could be considered, provided the price manages to climb above the trendline (indicated by the dashed green line)."
by gishniiz
Global Soft Commodity Trading: Challenges, and Future OutlookUnderstanding Soft Commodities Soft commodities are agricultural goods that are cultivated for consumption or industrial use. These include: Food commodities: Coffee, sugar, cocoa, corn, wheat, soybeans, rice, and orange juice. Fiber commodities: Cotton, jute, wool. Biofuel-related commodities: Corn (for ethanol), sugarcane, and palm oil. Unlike metals or energy products, the production of soft commodities is highly dependent on biological and environmental factors. This makes them particularly vulnerable to changes in weather, pests, diseases, and shifting agricultural practices. The global market for soft commodities operates through both spot trading (physical goods) and derivatives trading (futures, options, and swaps). The latter enables producers, consumers, and investors to hedge risks associated with price volatility or to speculate on future price movements. Key Players in Global Soft Commodity Trading Producers: Farmers and cooperatives form the foundation of the soft commodity supply chain. Their productivity depends on access to land, water, seeds, fertilizers, and financing. Countries like Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India are major agricultural producers in global markets. Traders and Exporters: Large multinational trading houses such as Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bunge, and Louis Dreyfus Company—collectively known as the ABCD firms—dominate global agricultural trade. These companies buy directly from producers, manage logistics, and sell to processors or wholesalers worldwide. Importers and Processors: These include food manufacturing companies, textile producers, and biofuel refineries that convert raw commodities into finished or semi-finished goods. Commodity Exchanges: Exchanges like the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Euronext provide structured platforms for futures and options trading. These markets help in price discovery and risk management. Investors and Speculators: Institutional investors, hedge funds, and retail traders participate in soft commodity futures to diversify portfolios or profit from short-term price movements. Governments and Regulatory Bodies: Many countries have regulatory agencies overseeing agricultural exports, subsidies, and quality standards. Trade policies, tariffs, and export bans also shape market dynamics. Major Soft Commodities and Their Markets Coffee: One of the most traded soft commodities, coffee is primarily grown in tropical regions—especially Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia. Coffee prices are highly sensitive to weather, crop diseases like leaf rust, and global consumption trends. Cocoa: Predominantly produced in West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana), cocoa is the key ingredient in chocolate production. Political instability and sustainability concerns, such as child labor and deforestation, often affect its supply. Sugar: Produced mainly from sugarcane (Brazil, India) and sugar beet (Europe), sugar prices fluctuate based on weather, energy prices (since sugarcane is also used for ethanol), and government policies like subsidies. Cotton: A major fiber commodity, cotton is vital for the textile industry. Leading producers include China, India, the U.S., and Pakistan. Weather conditions and trade tensions (especially between the U.S. and China) impact cotton markets. Grains (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans): These form the staple diet of billions worldwide and are critical to both food and feed industries. The U.S., China, Russia, Brazil, and Argentina are among the largest producers and exporters. Price Determinants in Soft Commodity Trading Supply and Demand: Prices are directly influenced by crop yields, consumption patterns, and global inventories. A bumper harvest usually leads to lower prices, while poor yields or rising demand can cause spikes. Weather and Climate Change: Droughts, floods, and unpredictable weather patterns significantly affect agricultural output. Long-term climate change is creating new challenges for farmers, forcing adaptation through technology and sustainable practices. Geopolitical Events: Trade wars, export restrictions, and sanctions can disrupt supply chains and influence commodity prices. For example, conflicts in major grain-producing regions can lead to global shortages. Currency Movements: Since commodities are typically priced in U.S. dollars, fluctuations in exchange rates can affect export competitiveness and prices in local markets. Energy Prices: Agricultural production and transportation depend heavily on fuel. Rising oil prices increase production costs and affect the pricing of soft commodities. Speculation and Market Sentiment: Large inflows of speculative capital can amplify price movements, creating volatility that sometimes diverges from fundamental demand-supply factors. Trading Mechanisms Soft commodities can be traded through: Physical Trading (Spot Market): Direct purchase and sale of goods where delivery occurs immediately or within a short time frame. Prices depend on quality, quantity, and logistics. Futures Contracts: Agreements to buy or sell a commodity at a predetermined price on a future date. Futures trading allows producers and consumers to hedge against price fluctuations. Options and Swaps: Derivative instruments that provide flexibility in managing price risk. Options give the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell at a set price, while swaps involve exchanging cash flows related to commodity prices. Over-the-Counter (OTC) Markets: Customized contracts between parties without the involvement of formal exchanges, often used by large institutions for complex hedging strategies. Risks and Challenges in Global Soft Commodity Trading Price Volatility: Prices can swing sharply due to weather events, policy shifts, or speculative trading. This volatility affects both producers and consumers. Political and Regulatory Risks: Export bans, import tariffs, and subsidy changes can disrupt markets and distort price signals. Supply Chain Disruptions: Events such as pandemics, port congestion, or shipping crises can halt the movement of goods, leading to price inflation or shortages. Sustainability and Ethical Issues: Environmental degradation, deforestation, and unethical labor practices (like child labor in cocoa) have raised concerns, pushing the industry toward sustainability certifications. Technological Disparity: While advanced nations use data analytics, AI, and precision farming, small-scale farmers in developing countries often lack access to these tools, limiting productivity. Technological Advancements in Commodity Trading Digital Platforms: Online trading platforms have improved price transparency, reduced transaction costs, and expanded market access for smaller players. Blockchain Technology: Enables transparent and tamper-proof tracking of commodities from farm to market, reducing fraud and enhancing traceability. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data: AI models predict crop yields, weather risks, and price movements, allowing traders to make more informed decisions. Sustainable Farming Technologies: Innovations like precision agriculture, drone monitoring, and climate-resilient crops are improving efficiency and mitigating risks from environmental changes. Global Trade Hubs and Logistics Major trading centers include Chicago, London, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Dubai, where commodity exchanges and logistics networks converge. Efficient transport—by sea, rail, and road—is essential for the movement of bulk agricultural products. Shipping routes like the Panama Canal and Suez Canal play strategic roles in global commodity flow. Storage facilities and warehousing are also critical. The ability to store commodities safely affects both pricing and availability. Poor infrastructure in developing countries often leads to post-harvest losses, reducing export potential. Sustainability and ESG in Soft Commodity Trading Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards are reshaping how commodities are traded. Major companies now commit to ethical sourcing, carbon reduction, and sustainable farming practices. Certification programs like Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, and RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil) ensure that products meet environmental and labor standards. Consumers are increasingly conscious of sustainability, influencing corporate policies and government regulations. In the coming years, carbon footprint transparency and regenerative agriculture will become integral to commodity trading. Future Trends and Outlook Digitalization and Smart Contracts: The integration of blockchain and IoT will automate and secure transactions, improving efficiency. Climate Adaptation: Climate-resilient crops and sustainable irrigation practices will become vital as weather patterns grow more unpredictable. Emerging Market Growth: Rising consumption in Asia and Africa will expand trade volumes, especially in food-related commodities. Financialization of Agriculture: Increased participation by institutional investors will continue to blur the line between physical and financial trading. Focus on Food Security: Governments are likely to impose stricter controls on exports to ensure domestic supply, especially after crises like COVID-19 and geopolitical conflicts. Conclusion Global soft commodity trading stands at the crossroads of agriculture, finance, technology, and sustainability. It connects farmers in developing nations to consumers worldwide, drives economic development, and shapes international relations. However, it also faces immense challenges—from price volatility and environmental pressures to geopolitical uncertainty. The future of soft commodity trading will depend on how effectively the world can balance economic efficiency with ethical responsibility and environmental stewardship. As technology transforms the sector, transparency, traceability, and sustainability will no longer be optional—they will define the success and credibility of the global commodity trade in the decades ahead.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
EUR/USD Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure CMCMARKETS:EURUSD EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1620, holding above Support Zone 1 (1.1585–1.1606). The chart shows a potential rebound structure: if buyers defend this zone, the pair could climb toward Resistance Zone 1 (1.1703–1.1718), where the descending trendline also intersects. A rejection from that resistance would confirm bearish continuation, with a possible slide back toward Support Zone 2 (1.1535–1.1550). The overall structure remains within a downtrend, but near-term rebounds are possible. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: 1.1592–1.1606 (buy near Support Zone 1) Stop Loss: 1.1588 Take Profit 1: 1.1680 Take Profit 2: 1.1703 Take Profit 3: 1.1718 Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 5.35 🗝️ Key Technical Levels Support Zone 1: 1.1592–1.1606 Support Zone 2: 1.1535–1.1550 Resistance Zone 1: 1.1703–1.1718 Trendline Resistance: From early October highs 🌍 Macro Background The euro gains some stability as US-China trade tensions escalate following Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports from November 1, weighing on the USD. The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed federal paychecks, further undermining confidence in the dollar. Meanwhile, in Europe, political risks in France have eased as President Macron prepares to appoint a new prime minister, reducing fears of snap elections. On the monetary policy front, the ECB September meeting minutes reaffirmed policymakers’ confidence that current rates are sufficiently restrictive to guide inflation back toward the 2% target. 📌 Trade Summary EUR/USD is testing Support Zone 1 near 1.1600. As long as this support holds, a rebound toward 1.1700–1.1718 is possible, offering short-term long opportunities. However, the broader downtrend remains intact; a rejection near resistance could provide a better risk-reward short setup targeting 1.1550–1.1535. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
Eur/Usd - at Key Decision Point, Breakout or Reversal Resistance Zone: Clearly defined in red. Price has reacted multiple times from this area, indicating strong selling pressure. Decision Point (DP): Price is currently sitting at a key decision point near the resistance zone. A breakout or rejection will dictate short-term direction. Strong High: Needs to be taken out for bullish confirmation. Weak Low: Vulnerable if price rejects the resistance and breaks below trendline. Market Structure Highlights: Break of Structure (BOS): Seen on the left side — marks bearish control initially. Change of Character (CHoCH): Multiple CHoCHs observed during the upward move, signaling potential trend shift from bearish to bullish. Trendline Support: Holding the bullish structure so far; price is respecting the ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support. Scenarios at Decision Point: Bullish Case: Break and close above resistance and the Strong High. Could signal continuation toward upper bullish targets (around 1.16600–1.16800). Look for confirmation on lower timeframes for entries (retest + bullish engulfing or FVG fill). Bearish Case: Rejection from resistance + break of Trendline Support. Opens path to bearish targets near 1.15800 and below (toward Weak Low). A BOS to the downside would confirm bearish continuation. Trading Tips: Wait for clear confirmation (break and retest or price action signal) before entering. Keep an eye on volume and momentum at the Decision Point. Risk Management: SL below recent swing low (for longs) or swing high (for shorts).
by Hamza_Gold
EURUSD still bullish. Here is why. Last week's sell off was triggered by the resignation of the French prime minister which was then slowed by the Trump's 100% threat on China. Also in the same week Gaza has agreed to a cease fire deal. This week we expect the US CPI to set the pace for EURUSD. Any higher than expected will confirm that inflation is too hot for a cut. Reports have been emerging that the tariffs have shown close to no effects on the US economy allowing room for disinflationary measures. Therefore, a low than expected CPI will mean the sell off that happened in the past week was just a correction and the 1.18 zone is likely to be tested. Finally if Powell maintains a dovish tone on Tuesday then bulls will hold.
Long
by WisdomArnold
EURUSD LongThe broader market structure on the 15-minute EURUSD chart shows a recent bullish reversal following a strong Change of Character (CHoCH) at 1.16081, marking the first significant shift after a clear downtrend. Prior to this, the pair broke multiple internal structures on the downside, confirming bearish momentum. However, the strong impulsive rally from the 1.1554 demand area broke above prior lower highs, indicating that buyers have regained control and are attempting to establish a short-term uptrend within a broader corrective phase. The demand zone between 1.1554–1.1575 remains structurally solid—buyers stepped in with clear strength, producing a sharp rally and leaving behind clean imbalance. The supply zone between 1.1640–1.1665 has historical significance, as price previously dropped sharply from that region. However, because the zone has already been mitigated multiple times, it’s moderately weak and likely to yield if buying momentum continues. The higher-timeframe supply above 1.1675 remains the next logical target for liquidity draw. Within the marked region on your chart, price is currently reacting from a minor demand formed around 1.1599 and showing continuation strength toward the 1.1640–1.1660 supply pocket. The current structure suggests a short pullback before another bullish push upward, in line with the arrow projection drawn. Buyers are in control, and momentum strongly favors them given the impulsive nature of recent candles and limited retracement depth. The trade bias is bullish, expecting continuation toward 1.1660–1.1675, with a possible minor retracement into 1.1600–1.1610 before the next leg. The invalidation level for this bullish scenario sits below 1.1585—a break beneath that would negate short-term buyer control and suggest a deeper retracement back toward 1.1550.
Long
by ProSignalai
EUR/USD Bullish Continuation in Play — How High Can It Go?💶 EUR/USD “THE FIBRE” | Forex Money Liquidity Hunt Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 📊💼 📈 Trading Plan: Bullish Bias Setup: Demand Zone 🔥 + Heikin Ashi Doji reversal confirmed 🟢 + Re-Accumulation spotted (buyers stepping in). Narrative: Market showing strong intent from bulls, eyeing higher liquidity pools 🏦. 🎯 Entry Strategy (Layering Method) We don’t chase — we layer! 🧑‍💼 Multiple limit orders (layered entries) can be set around these levels: 1.16500 1.16750 1.17000 1.17250 1.17500 (Traders may adjust / expand layering based on their style ✅). 🛡️ Stop Loss Guidance Example SL: 1.16000 (below demand zone structure). ⚠️ Note: Adjust based on your own risk tolerance + strategy — flexibility is key. 🎯 Target Zone Key Resistance: ~1.19500 ⚔️ Momentum shows overbought risk + possible liquidity trap in that area 🚨. Best practice: Secure profits early, scale out gradually. 🔑 Key Notes for Traders This is not financial advice 🚫. Manage risk, adapt levels, and trade safe. Targets/SL shared are reference points only — every trader is responsible for their own execution. 🌍 Related Pairs to Watch OANDA:EURGBP : Often mirrors EUR strength but reacts slower — useful for cross confirmation. FX:USDJPY : Inverse correlation with risk appetite; USD weakness here may boost EUR/USD. TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): Always track! If TVC:DXY drops, EUR/USD usually pushes higher. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #EURUSD #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrading #HeikinAshi #LiquidityHunt #LayeringStrategy #TradingPlan #PriceAction #DemandZone
Long
by The-Thief
EURUSD | Descending Channel Breakout AheadEUR/USD is showing signs of a potential breakout from the descending channel after completing a 5-wave impulsive decline and forming a corrective ABC structure. 🔹 Wave (5) seems to have completed near 1.1580 🔹 Price is attempting to break the upper trendline resistance 🔹 A confirmed breakout may target the 1.1680–1.1720 zone 🔹 Failure to break could lead to another minor retest near 1.1580 This structure aligns with Elliott Wave corrective projection and a bullish reversal scenario in progress. Watch for confirmation candles and volume near the red zone (resistance box) for a potential long setup. 📊 Bias: Short-term bullish (after breakout confirmation) ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 1.1570 --- #EURUSD #ElliottWave #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #EURUSDforecast #TradingView #ChannelBreakout
Long
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD-WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart, here’s a detailed professional breakdown 👇 --- 🔍 1. Market Structure Overview The pair has been in a strong uptrend, moving from around 1.04 → 1.19 — a clear bullish impulse phase. Recently, price has been consolidating within a sideways range between approximately 1.14 (support) and 1.19 (resistance). This consolidation forms what’s called a distribution zone at the top of an extended rally — often a sign of potential trend exhaustion. --- 🟥 2. Institutional Zones Red Box (1.1850–1.1918) → This is our institutional sell zone / supply zone. Price tapped into this zone multiple times but failed to close strongly above it — showing rejection and absorption of buy orders, suggesting that smart money may be distributing longs and positioning for shorts. Blue Box (1.1400–1.1500) → This marks our institutional buy zone / demand zone. It’s where liquidity is resting below recent swing lows — if price returns here, it may act as support or a liquidity sweep zone before a deeper reversal. --- 📊 3. Candle Behavior and Momentum Weekly candles show long upper wicks near resistance (1.19 area) → clear selling pressure. Volume and body size are decreasing — momentum is losing steam, confirming possible buyer exhaustion. The current price at 1.1629 is right in the middle of that range, showing indecision (no strong directional conviction yet). --- 🔮 4. Probable Scenarios Going Forward 🐻 Bearish Scenario (more likely short-term) If price breaks below the blue box (≈1.1400) and closes beneath it on the weekly timeframe, that would confirm distribution completion → signaling a reversal to a bearish trend. First bearish targets could be 1.1200, then 1.1000 and potentially 1.0176 (previous low). 🐂 Bullish Scenario (less likely for now) For bulls to regain control, EUR/USD must break and close above 1.1920 with strong bullish candles. That would confirm continuation of the uptrend toward 1.2100–1.2250 levels. --- ⚖️ 5. Summary Bias Timeframe Trend Bias Key Confirmation Weekly Uptrend but losing strength Neutral → Bearish Break below 1.1400 Daily Range-bound Bearish within range Lower highs forming Monthly Bullish but topping Early distribution Wicks rejecting 1.19–1.20 --- 🧭 Conclusion The uptrend is weakening, and EUR/USD is showing signs of a potential top formation. If the current range breaks downward, we may be witnessing the early stages of a medium-term reversal from bullish to bearish. Until a decisive breakout occurs, expect range trading between 1.14–1.19, with sellers likely dominating near the top. ---
Short
by enwemadufranklyn1989
EURUSD in a DAILY Correction towards 11400/11320 While <11780Based on your analysis, here's a summary of the EURUSD scenario: Potential Top: The EURUSD may have topped at 1.1925 on September 17, 2025, forming a One Day Reversal Pattern on the daily chart. Current Correction: The pair is now in a corrective downtrend on both the daily and hourly timeframes, with a price target towards 1.1400, as long as it remains below 1.1780. Range Trading on 15Min: On the 15-minute chart, the pair is range-bound between 1.1540 and 1.1640. Any pullback is expected to be limited to 1.1680/1.1720. Key Levels: Support: 1.1540 is a critical level. A break below this could lead to a test of 1.1400 before a base is confirmed. Resistance: 1.1640 and 1.1680/1.1720 are key resistance levels to watch. Strategy: Bearish Outlook: Consider short positions if the price stays below 1.1780, targeting 1.1400. Range Trading: Within the 1.1540/1.1640 range, traders might look for opportunities to sell near the upper bound and buy near the lower bound. Always ensure to manage risk appropriately and consider using stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected market movements.
Short
by RAJOOC
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session of the previous week, the Euro exhibited considerable volatility, initially declining to approximately the Mean Support level of 1.153 before experiencing a substantial upward reversal. Current market indicators suggest that this bullish trend may persist, with particular emphasis on the Mean Resistance level identified at 1.165, which could lead to an ascent toward the secondary Mean Resistance at 1.174. Conversely, recent price movements may indicate a reversal, leading to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 1.156, which could complete the Outer Currency Dip at 1.145. Should this downward trajectory continue, it may extend further to the Key Support level of 1.140.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD - Outlook of possible Intraday scenariosAs we approach the upcoming trading hours, two potential scenarios are in play for EUR/USD, based on current price action and liquidity structures: Bullish Scenario: There has been a notable draw on liquidity to the downside, with the previous day’s low (PDL), Asia session low, and London session low aligning to form equal lows. These confluences suggest a liquidity pool situated near a key daily support zone. We anticipate a sweep of this sell-side liquidity before a potential bullish reversal. Higher time frame (H4) structure continues to indicate bullish momentum and supports the case for further upside following the liquidity sweep. Bearish Scenario: To the upside, the London session high remains intact, alongside an unfilled H1 Sell-side Imbalance Buy-side Inefficiency (SIBI). This opens the possibility for a short-term liquidity grab above the London high, targeting resting buy-side liquidity. Should this occur, we may then see a reversal to target the existing sell-side liquidity zones. If you like how I break it down , you know what to do ! See you on the other side =D
by TheProfitRoomFx
EURUSD support at 1.1530The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1530 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1530 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1640 – initial resistance 1.1670 – psychological and structural level 1.1690 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1530 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1500 – minor support 1.1470 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1530 A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation