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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD Intraday AnalysisEURUSD Intraday Analysis: Market Forms Lower High Structure and Signals Potential Breakdown EURUSD is showing early signs of bearish exhaustion after failing to establish a new higher high on the H1 timeframe. Current price action indicates that the pair may be preparing for a deeper correction as sellers continue to defend the 1.1600 zone. The chart structure suggests a lower-high formation, followed by a retest of intraday support before a potential bearish continuation. This analysis focuses on pure technical confluence using dynamic EMA9, structural trend shifts, and horizontal demand zones. Technical Outlook 1. Market Structure After the initial push upward, EURUSD formed a clear lower high, signaling a weakening bullish trend. Price is currently trading below short-term rising structure and gravitating toward the first demand zone around 1.1570 – 1.1580. Should the market retest this zone and fail to reclaim EMA9, bearish continuation becomes the higher-probability scenario. 2. EMA9 Momentum The EMA9 has turned flat and is now tilting downward. This shift signals fading momentum on the buy side and a potential transition into a short-term downtrend. A rejection from EMA9 on pullbacks reinforces the bearish idea. 3. RSI Condition RSI has moved away from the overbought zone and continues to form lower swing highs. This confirms the slowdown in bullish pressure and aligns with a bearish structural shift. 4. Key Levels to Watch Support Zones 1.1570 – 1.1580 (intraday support, first reaction zone) 1.1540 – 1.1550 (major target if breakdown occurs) 1.1485 – 1.1500 (extended bearish target, deeper liquidity zone) Resistance Zones 1.1600 – 1.1610 (key intraday rejection area) 1.1620 (short-term invalidation of bearish bias) Intraday Trading Scenarios Scenario A: Bearish Continuation (High Probability) If price retests 1.1600 and forms rejection: Entry: 1.1590 – 1.1600 Targets: 1.1570, 1.1540 Stop-loss: Above 1.1620 This matches the exact pattern illustrated on the chart. Scenario B: Retest and Break of Support If price consolidates at 1.1570 and breaks decisively: Entry: Break below 1.1570 Targets: 1.1540, 1.1500 Stop-loss: Above 1.1585 This is ideal for trend-followers waiting for confirmation. Scenario C: Bullish Invalidation Bullish recovery is confirmed only if price closes above 1.1620, breaking the lower-high structure and reclaiming momentum. Conclusion EURUSD is shifting from short-term bullish to a potential bearish correction phase. The lower-high pattern, weakening EMA9 momentum, and fading RSI strength are aligning for a possible move toward 1.1540. Traders should closely observe the reaction around the 1.1570 support zone to determine whether a breakdown or a deeper pullback occurs.
by Henrybillion
EUR/USD Bounces From Support – Bulls Showing StrengthOn the EUR/USD 10-minute chart, price has reacted cleanly from the 1.1579 support zone, forming a bullish bounce after a sharp decline. If buyers maintain momentum, the pair could push back toward the recent highs around 1.1605–1.1615. This support level has held multiple times, making it a key zone to watch. A sustained move above current structure may confirm further upside, while a break below 1.1579 would invalidate the bullish scenario. Patience and confirmation remain essential.
Long
by mazaya_fx
EURUSD Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.151. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.155 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD Counter Trend - 4H Supply Reaction at HTF EquilibriumHigher Timeframe Context (Daily & 4H) EURUSD continues to maintain a strong bullish structure on both the Daily and 4H charts, with price consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. The current 4H bullish leg ranges from 1.19188 to 1.13917, and price has now risen into the equilibrium zone (50%) of this entire move. This equilibrium region commonly acts as a reaction point even within a trending market, especially when aligned with a strong supply zone. A well defined 4H supply zone between 1.16103 - 1.16560 sits directly inside this equilibrium area. Price slightly tapped into the lower boundary of this supply during the Asia session and began showing early signs of exhaustion, indicating that the zone is active and may induce a corrective move within the broader uptrend. Session Breakdown Asia Session Asia pushed into the lower portion of the 4H supply zone but failed to show continued bullish displacement. Instead, price stalled and established a tight consolidation, creating a pool of liquidity above intraday highs. This liquidity is important because Asia often sets the trap that London later sweeps. London Session Expectation London typically introduces directional volatility. Given that price has built upside liquidity during Asia and is sitting inside a major HTF supply zone, the expectation is: London sweeps the Asia highs Price taps deeper into the 4H supply A 15M bearish CHoCH forms, signaling rejection from supply A bearish correction begins This sweep-and-shift pattern is a classic counter-trend entry model when trading against the prevailing trend. New York Session If London confirms the bearish shift, NY will likely: stabilize the new intraday bearish order flow, respect the 15M lower highs, and continue the correction toward the nearest demand zone. The cleanest continuation move usually occurs once NY confirms the London session’s directional bias. Liquidity & Structure Overview Liquidity Asia created upside liquidity above the range. Price is inside a HTF supply zone, where institutional activity is expected. Any London sweep makes the bearish CHoCH even stronger. Structure Daily & 4H → bullish, but extended into equilibrium and supply 15M → currently forming liquidity, waiting for confirmation This is a counter-trend setup, meaning we need stronger confirmation than usual to execute. Entry Model (Strict Counter-Trend Criteria) You will only take the trade if the following conditions occur inside the 4H supply zone: Asia liquidity sweep London taps into the supply zone Clear 15M bearish CHoCH showing displacement away from supply Entry on the impulse leg that created the CHoCH If these conditions do not form, the trade setup is invalid. Trade Execution Plan Entry: After the 15M bearish CHoCH forms inside the 4H supply. Stop-Loss: Above the 4H supply zone at 1.16560 This keeps your invalidation tied directly to the HTF structure. Take-Profit: Nearest clean demand zone at 1.15724 This is the first logical target where buyers may step back in. Risk Management: Risk: 0.25% (1R) Reward: 2R RRR: 1:2 Full take-profit: no partials, no scaling. Given that this is a counter-trend trade, a conservative take-profit is more appropriate. Confluence – Dollar Index (DXY) The Dollar Index is currently sitting near a support area and showing early signs of stabilization. A stronger DXY typically pressures EURUSD lower, providing added confluence for a short-term bearish pullback from the 4H supply. This aligns well with the expectation of a short-term EURUSD correction. Question for you? If price sweeps Asia liquidity during London and forms a bearish 15M CHoCH inside the 4H supply zone, would you take the counter-trend short? Or would you avoid counter trend setups entirely and wait for a full return to the 4H demand zone to continue with the bullish trend? Share how you manage confirmation and invalidation when trading against the higher-timeframe bias.
Short
by tharindu97
EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR LONG (BUYING) OPPORTUNITY 📈 EUR/USD Technical Analysis Review This 1-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair shows a technical analysis perspective, suggesting a potential continuation of a short-term bearish trend that may be nearing an end. Key Observations: Bearish Channel (Downtrend): Since around November 14th, the pair has been trading within a descending channel (represented by the dashed white lines), indicating a steady downtrend. Previous Breakout/Breakdown: The term "BREAKDOWN" (around Nov 19th) points to a drop below a short-term support level or pattern, accelerating the downtrend. The term "BREAKUP" (around Nov 21st) points to a move that might have temporarily failed to sustain the channel's lower boundary or represented a short-lived recovery attempt before re-entering the main channel. Current Price Action (Triangle/Wedge): The price is currently consolidating in a small symmetrical triangle or a contracting wedge (indicated by the light blue lines) at the lower boundary of the main descending channel. This suggests a period of indecision. Long-Term Resistance: A major long-term resistance line (pink line) is shown, originating from a higher peak and currently sitting near the 1.1620 level. Potential Scenario (Bullish): The chart illustrates a hypothetical and aggressive bullish scenario with two main targets/projection paths (white arrows): Immediate Breakout: A breakout from the current small consolidation triangle and the main descending channel (dashed white lines). Target: A strong projected move up towards the long-term resistance line (pink line), targeting the 1.1620 - 1.1640 region. Current Price & Time: Current Price: Approximately 1.15343 at the time the chart was created. Timeframe: 1-hour chart, data up to November 24, 2025, 10:07 UTC. In summary, the chart is highlighting the end of a descending channel and proposing a high-probability bullish breakout that would aim for the 1.1620+ level, contingent upon the price breaking above the upper boundary of the current consolidation pattern and the main downtrend channel. Would you like me to look for any economic news or fundamental factors that might influence the EUR/USD pair today?
Long
by Expert_Travis
EUR/USD: Awaiting Strong Uptrend from Fed Cuts & Ukraine TalksWith promising news that the Fed may soon cut interest rates, the USD is facing downward pressure. At the same time, negotiations surrounding Ukraine are providing significant support for the euro. Combined with the EUR/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, this presents an excellent opportunity for us to expect a strong uptrend for this currency pair. Chart Analysis and Technical Signals Currently, the price of EUR/USD is sitting in a key support zone around 1.1500. This area is confirmed by strong support from the EMA 34 and 89 lines. In the current context, the price is expected to move upwards, with the next target being the 1.1600 level, a significant resistance zone. We can see that after the price retraced to the 1.1500 support zone, if the price reacts well and does not break below 1.1520, this would be the ideal signal to open a buy position. Trading Strategy: Potential Buy Zone: When the price retraces to the 1.1500 level. Take Profit Target: Around 1.1600. Stop Loss: Below 1.1500.
Long
by Paradise_Noir
1
Long trade 🟦 1. Trade Details Pair: EURUSD Direction: Buyside Session: NY Session AM Entry: 1.15754 Profit Level: 1.16276 (+0.32%) Stop Level: 1.15707 (-0.04%) Risk-to-Reward: 7.71R Entry 5min TF 🟩 2. Higher-Timeframe Context (HTF Bias) Bias: Bullish recovery after a deep liquidity purge on the downside The HTF structure shows EURUSD operating within a premium-to-discount reaccumulating after hitting the daily low at 1.1547. The 1.618 external range extension (1.16001) becomes the primary liquidity magnet. Strong displacement printed after sweeping the 8:30 AM liquidity, creating a clear NY session reversal signature. 🟨 3. Liquidity Story & PD Arrays EURUSD formed a textbook NY Reversal Model: Liquidity Taken ✔ Sell-side sweep beneath 1.15600 (liquidity purge) ✔ Equal lows removed → shifted the algorithm into accumulation ✔ Inducement above internal structure before the final push 🟥 4. Entry Model Breakdown (ICT/SMC) Model Used: NY Session AM Reversal → BOS → FVG → Re-entry → Expansion Key Points BOS created after the NY 8:30 AM news sweep, confirming a shift in order flow Price retraced into the discount FVG + 0.382 retracement alignment Confluence with dynamic support via EMA/WMA cross Entry taken at 1.15754 as price rebalanced the micro FVG with bullish displacement behind it Stop placed below the extreme wick at 1.15707. 🟧 6. Market Sentiment & Narrative Macro Sentiment USD index showed early weakness at the NY AM window EURUSD correlational flows supported bullish reaction after CPI volatility Liquidity build-up during Asia & London provided the perfect fuel for NY session expansion Narrative Summary “NY engineered a sell-side sweep below the morning lows. With the liquidity collected, the algorithm repriced aggressively upward, delivering a clean long setup into clear inefficiencies. Structure, FVG, displacement, and PD array alignment all pointed in one direction — higher.” 🟩 8. Continuation Bias As long as price holds above 1.1590, bullish continuation remains valid Next HTF targets: 1.1650 (1H imbalance top) 1.1689 (2.618 extension)
Long
by davidjulien369
EURUSDCool — thanks for sharing the chart link (EUR/USD). I can’t directly open your private TradingView chart as I don’t have your account’s access, but we can still talk generally about **how you should review an EUR/USD setup** using your 4H analysis + 15M entries + momentum confirmation approach (like with MACD). Below is how *you* should walk through a chart like that — what to check step-by-step, and what you want to see on 15M **before** entering. Use this as a checklist when you open the chart. --- ## 🔎 Step-by-Step: What to Check on EUR/USD (4H → 15M → Entry) ### 1. On 4H: Set the context * Mark major supply and demand zones, significant support/resistance — these are your anchor zones. * Identify trend direction (or if market is ranging). * Only consider trades that respect that context (never fight a strong 4H trend). ### 2. When price approaches a 4H zone → switch to 15M to hunt for an entry On 15M you want to see **all** of the following (or a strong subset) before you consider entering: * Price reaching or entering the 4H zone on 15M * Price showing signs of liquidity grab (e.g. wick, sweep) if it’s a reversal zone — this flushes weak hands / stops * A **micro-structure trendline** — either rising or falling depending on direction — that frames the small 15M trend * A **break of that 15M trendline** (structure shift) — first sign momentum is changing at micro level * A **retest** of broken trendline or a retest of a swing low/high after break (confirmation) * A **confirmation candle** (rejection candle, engulfing, clear directional candle), or formation of a higher-low (for buys) or lower-high (for sells) on 15M * Ideally, a **momentum confirmation** — e.g. MACD cross or divergence, or some other oscillator supporting the reversal or continuation Only when most (or preferably all) of those line up should you consider entering — with clear stop (below/above zone or wick) and a valid risk-reward. --- ## 📊 How to Use MACD (Momentum Confirmation on 15M) for EUR/USD Entries MACD is useful — but only as a **confirmation tool**, NOT a standalone entry trigger. ( ) Here's how to use it with your style: * If price is in supply zone and you expect a sell → you want MACD showing bearish momentum or weakening bullish momentum (flattening or divergence). * If price is in demand zone and you expect a buy → you want MACD showing bullish momentum or at least a bullish divergence / cross up. * MACD divergence (price making LL but MACD higher lows — bullish; or price making HH but MACD lower highs — bearish) inside a relevant zone is a strong signal. * MACD crossover (fast line crossing signal line) can confirm momentum shift — useful especially after structure break + retest. **Important**: MACD lags. So treat it as confirmation *after* structure signals — not before. --- ## ✅ What to Watch Out For / When to Skip the Trade Even if you have a 4H zone + price touching, skip the trade if: * 15M structure is messy (no clear swing lows/highs), or price is chopping inside zone with no clear trendline or liquidity sweep. * No trendline break + retest. * MACD or momentum is going the wrong way (e.g. bullish MACD in supply zone, or bearish MACD in demand zone). * Risk-reward or stop placement is poor — e.g. stop too far, RR too small. * You’re trading at weird times (low liquidity, news, big spreads) — better to wait for clarity.
Short
by sergioleon887
1
EURUSD: double Scenario Hello Traders, this is the long-term channel! We are truly in the way of more bearish days! However, in the more natural timeframe we see a possible Head and shoulders! I'm not a pattern trader! but sellers were not able to goes further than the HEAD! So??? They are not strong enough! new buyers are in! may be a peace in Ukraine could alter it! but I'm still more bearish for the term of my trade length! Although I aim to long after confirming the H&S and also breaking the latest strong level and breaking the bearish channel up!!
Short
by AliSignals