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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD – Reversal Pattern Points to Further DownsideThe EUR/USD pair on the 1H timeframe is showing a clear rounded top formation, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. After peaking around 1.17500, price has been steadily declining and recently confirmed a lower high, indicating the continuation of a short-term downtrend. Currently, price is hovering near the 1.1590 zone, retesting short-term support. However, momentum remains weak, suggesting the possibility of another leg lower if buyers fail to defend this area. Technical breakdown: Resistance zone: 1.1700 – 1.1750 (previous distribution area) Short-term support: 1.1570 – 1.1550 Major target: 1.1520, where the previous base structure was established Indicators and structure: The downtrend channel (blue) remains intact, showing consistent lower highs. EMA lines are aligned bearishly, confirming short-term selling pressure. RSI is below 50, indicating momentum still favors sellers. Scenario outlook: If EUR/USD fails to break above 1.1620 and instead confirms a rejection from that level, we may see a continuation move toward 1.1550, and potentially 1.1520. Conversely, a sustained close above 1.1630 could lead to a short-term pullback, but the broader bias remains bearish. In summary, EUR/USD is showing strong technical signals of a rounded top reversal, suggesting more downside potential in the near term. Traders should focus on short opportunities from resistance with proper risk management. Follow for daily strategy updates and precision trading insights.
by Henrybillion
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 23, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is declining against the US dollar amid persistent demand for safe-haven assets and expectations for US inflation data. Investors note that delays in the release of official US macroeconomic data caused by the government shutdown do not resolve the question of the price trajectory: the market is still repricing the timing and scale of monetary easing in the US, which supports the USD. Taken together, this keeps the pair around 1.16000 and caps attempts to rise. Additional pressure on the euro comes from uneven signals from the euro area’s real sector and the regulator’s cautious tone on growth prospects, while US Treasury yields remain relatively high. In the short term, the risk balance for EURUSD is tilted toward further declines, especially in the absence of positive surprises in US price dynamics and signs of acceleration in the eurozone economy. In October the euro’s vulnerability to deteriorating global risk sentiment and US news flow was also evident. As of today this remains relevant: the dollar retains an advantage thanks to expectations around Federal Reserve rates and its role as a funding currency, while the euro is exposed to the region’s political-economic risks. Given these inputs, a strategy of selling from round levels looks justified. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16050, SL 1.16250, TP 1.15450
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
EUR/USD – Medium-Term Structural ContextMarket Overview The current Dealing Range MT represents the active expansion phase within the broader long-term bullish structure. After several efficient impulses, price now trades outside the value area, showing signs of exhaustion typical of late-stage expansions. Even if continuation toward the long-term LVN occurs, the market will likely require a short-term structural break to facilitate redistribution and restore balance before further downside efficiency. Recent price behavior suggests the formation of a Seller Climax — characterized by higher resistance than previous moves, a unidirectional breakout, and subsequent failure to sustain momentum. This pattern often traps short-term participants selling into a “retail supply”, positioned at a discount within the broader higher-timeframe structure. Such conditions typically precede short-term rebalancing or structural compression, marking the transition between the medium-term expansion phase and the potential absorption process of higher-timeframe buyers. Context Summary Structure: Bearish (Medium-Term) within a bullish Long-Term framework Current Phase: Late-stage expansion / potential rebalancing Key Observation: Price operating outside value (LVN retest expected) Signs of Seller Climax — short-term exhaustion Risk of short continuation increases as price enters higher-timeframe demand zones Purpose This analysis defines the medium-term structural environment and serves as a contextual reference for upcoming short-term observations. No trade setup is suggested — the objective is to frame the interaction between medium and long-term order flow dynamics.
by philipemav
EUR/USD forms a daily range after reacting to the weekly key levThe price is reacting to the weekly key level and is forming a daily range with new structural zones. On the daily chart, we can see a break of the D FVG, which indicates the strength of the sellers. However, the price is moving into discount areas, which by themselves are zones of buyers’ interest. The key factor will be the daily candle close — if it closes above the 0.5 level of the range, it will indicate that the range has been balanced, and we can start considering long positions.
Long
by MomentumXAlgoritmA-B
EUR/USD NY Session Outlook - BUYPrice action has recently swept key swing levels, including the Previous Day Low (PDL) and the London session low. Based on this, I anticipate a potential liquidity sweep of the Daily EQ lows, followed by a reaction from our Point of Interest (POI), which aligns with a Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) support zone. For the New York session, I expect possible downside manipulation into this area of interest, with a subsequent move targeting the buyside liquidity. Notably, there is a strong draw on liquidity above, including the London high and the Previous Day High (PDH), which may serve as bullish targets. 🎯
Long
by TheProfitRoomFx
EURUSD – Pressure Returns, Bears Take ControlThe Euro is facing renewed pressure after the Bank of Italy lowered its 2026 growth forecast to just 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs. This has raised concerns that the Eurozone’s overall growth may slow further, potentially forcing the ECB to consider policy easing sooner, which in turn could weaken the EUR against the USD. On the H4 chart, price remains below the main descending trendline, confirming that the downtrend is still dominant. After a weak rebound toward 1.1700, selling pressure quickly returned. If price fails to break above this resistance zone, EURUSD is likely to continue falling toward the 1.1570 support area, where previous lows and a key demand zone align. Trading plan: Sell on pullback around 1.1680 – 1.1700 Stop loss: above 1.1730 Take profit: near 1.1580 – 1.1570 The bearish momentum remains strong, and with Europe’s economic outlook turning increasingly gloomy, sellers have every reason to stay in control.
Short
by Octaviuss
14
EURUSD📊 EUR/USD 4H Analysis – Summary: Price is approaching a strong demand zone with EMA confluence and a rising trendline, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. ✅ Entry: From the demand zone after confirmation. 🛑 Stop Loss: Below 1.15430 (previous swing low). 📈 Confirmation: Break and close above 1.17291 signals a structural shift and bullish momentum. 🎯 Targets: TP1: 1.18501 TP2: 1.20041 This setup offers a strong 3:1 risk-to-reward. Wait for the structural breakout above 1.17291 before entering for higher probability.
Long
by al_bloushy1992