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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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UPDATE ON EUR/USD SETUPEUR/USD 4H - As you can see this pair has played out exactly as we predicted, we wanted to see price trade up and into this area of interest before taking us lower in the market. Once price trades us up and into the zone we expect Supply to be introduced which will give us the bearish move we have been provided with, now what confirms a longer term move is a bos to the downside. This will come fractally, so its important that we look inside of the wave that traded price up and into this zone and we mark out the last protected low that was set within the bullish leg. Once we see price break beneath that, that is when we know that there is enough Supply in the market to see price trade us lower longer term allowing us to get involved in some short positions.
Short
by Lukegforex
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 24 October 2025- EURUSD reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1740 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the strong support level 1.1570 (which has been reversing the price from August), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily up channel from July. The upward reversal form this support zone stopped the previous minor correction 2 of the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of October. Given the clear daily uptrend and the strong euro sentiment, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.1740 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1).
Long
by FxPro
Sharing my personal 1H outlook for EURUSD 🧠 What's Happening: Price has been pulling back from the top near 1.173, and now it’s entering a critical Fibonacci reversal zone. We’re currently sitting just under the 0.5–0.618 fib zone — my key area for a potential bullish reversal. 📌 Reversal Zone: 🔹 1.1589 (0.5 level) 🔹 1.1566 (0.618 level / Deep Zone start) I’m watching this zone closely for bullish reaction signs (like structure shift, major breakout).
Long
by ClearTradingMind
EUR/USD Analysis – Consolidation Before Another Down MoveEUR/USD Analysis – Consolidation Before Another Down Move (Oct 24, 2025) After several failed attempts to break above 1.1620, EUR/USD continues to trade inside a narrow consolidation range. The price is still respecting the horizontal channel between 1.1575 – 1.1620, suggesting that momentum is fading before the next impulse move. Technically, the pair has tested the upper boundary of the range and is showing early signs of rejection on the 15-minute timeframe. A potential short-term bounce toward the mid-range could be followed by another bearish leg targeting the lower support zone near 1.1570 – 1.1560. Key Technical Zones: Resistance: 1.1620 – 1.1635 (top of range) Support: 1.1570 – 1.1560 (bottom of range) Neutral zone: 1.1595 – 1.1605 Trading Strategy Idea: Look for bearish confirmations if the price rejects 1.1620 again. A break below 1.1590 could open the way for a short-term sell opportunity toward 1.1560. If 1.1635 is breached, the short bias becomes invalid. Indicators to Watch: EMA20/EMA50: Price is trading below both EMAs, signaling short-term bearish momentum. RSI (14): Approaching the neutral 50 zone — a rejection here may support downside continuation. Volume: Noticeable spikes during previous sell-offs hint that sellers remain active. EUR/USD remains technically bearish while below 1.1635. A clean breakdown beneath 1.1570 could accelerate momentum toward the 1.1540 handle. Stay disciplined and manage risk properly — markets often trap traders inside consolidation ranges before making a decisive breakout. Follow for more daily strategy updates and real-time macro insights.
by Henrybillion
EURUSD volatility ahead triggered by US Inflation data The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1590 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1590 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1710 – initial resistance 1.1740 – psychological and structural level 1.1780 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1590 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1550 – minor support 1.1500 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1590 A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - upside CPI surprises?Markets today will be focused on a heavy data slate and key central bank commentary, with attention centred on global flash PMIs and US inflation data, both of which could influence near-term rate expectations. Key data highlights: Global: October flash PMIs will provide the first look at business activity trends amid signs of slowing global momentum. US: September CPI and Kansas City Fed services activity will be closely watched for confirmation of easing inflationary pressures and the health of the services sector. UK: A busy morning with October GfK consumer confidence and September retail sales, both giving insight into the impact of high borrowing costs on consumers. Japan: September national CPI may test expectations that the BoJ will stay cautious on tightening. Europe: France’s consumer confidence and Sweden’s PPI add to the regional inflation picture. Central banks: ECB’s Nagel, Cipollone, and Villeroy are all scheduled to speak, and their tone could offer further clues about how long policy will stay restrictive given weak activity data. Corporate earnings: Another big day in earnings, with Procter & Gamble, Sanofi, NatWest, and Porsche reporting. Investors will look for commentary on margins and consumer demand as inflation cools. Other developments: Moody’s will review France’s credit rating, a potential risk event given recent fiscal slippage. Ireland’s presidential election takes place, though market impact is likely limited. Market outlook: With so many key data releases and earnings updates, volatility could pick up. Traders will be looking for signs of cooling inflation but resilient activity to sustain the recent equity rebound, while bond markets remain sensitive to any upside CPI surprises. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
EUR/USD PREP FOR SHORTSEUR/USD 1D - As we approach this area of Supply, I am preparing to take this market short, its a case of waiting for price to go ahead and trade us up and into the Supply Zone first. Once price has we can then begin looking for entry confirmation which will come from a break in structure fractally, this tells us that enough Supply has been introduced to flip the S&D balance. From here we can look to take this market short, trading price lower than the last higher timeframe lows that have been created within this higher timeframe move to the downside. Price has played out well up to now though delivering us with the bullishness we predicted back in the start of the week, who managed to get involved in some shorter term buys?
Short
by Lukegforex
EURUSD Short: Delta Imbalance ExecutionShort EURUSD Trade Explanation (Institutional Orderflow Approach) Entered short as price reached a defined Point of Interest (POI) with Delta Imbalance in the upper consolidation, signaling aggressive seller absorption at liquidity overhead. Structure validated by a prior imbalance zone, confirming supply. Risk management executed with targets at 1:2 and 1:3 R:R breakeven zones, aligned with lower liquidity pockets and Delta Imbalance support. Price action, volume and delta confirmed entry; trade managed as price reacted within institutional range extremes. My discretionary order flow model system is called the Liquidity Convergence System
Short
by FervTrades
EURUSD -H4 TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Here’s a professional, full-spectrum analysis of your EUR/USD H4 chart, integrating both technical and fundamental perspectives: --- 🧭 1. Technical Analysis (Structure, Zones & Momentum) Trend Context The pair has been in a broader uptrend since early May, shown by the ascending trendline (blue) connecting higher lows. Recently, price broke structure to the downside, then retested the trendline, which is now acting as support around 1.1580–1.1600. Key Technical Levels Zone Type Price Range Notes 🔴 Institutional Sell Zones (Supply) 1.1700–1.1720 / 1.1780–1.1800 / 1.1870–1.1900 Multiple lower highs formed; strong supply where smart money previously sold 🔵 Major Demand Zone (Support) 1.1500–1.1550 Confluence of ascending trendline and horizontal support — likely accumulation area ⚖️ Current Price Level 1.1600 Trading just above trendline — decision point between continuation or breakdown Market Structure After failing to make new highs beyond 1.1880, price transitioned into a descending structure with lower highs (highlighted by red downward trendline). The last leg down found demand around 1.1580, showing temporary buyer defense. The compression between the descending resistance (red) and ascending support (blue) indicates a potential breakout zone soon. Outlook Scenarios Bullish Case: A clean H4 close above 1.1700 would invalidate the descending structure and target 1.1790 → 1.1880. Institutions could be building long positions at 1.1550–1.1600 (early accumulation). Bearish Case: A decisive breakdown below 1.1550 confirms loss of ascending momentum. Price could then drop toward 1.1420 → 1.1320, aligning with previous demand blocks from June. --- 📊 2. Smart Money / Institutional Insight The blue ascending trendline represents a long-term institutional accumulation phase. The red zones mark areas where institutional selling pressure previously emerged. Given that the pair is now testing previous accumulation, we can interpret this as: Institutions taking liquidity below equal lows before a potential push up. If price fails to reclaim 1.1700, smart money may be reloading short positions to drive the market lower. --- 🌍 3. Fundamental Analysis (Macro & Sentiment) USD Side (Dollar Strength) The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been strong due to higher yields and hawkish Fed tone. The recent Fed minutes suggest interest rates may stay elevated longer to combat inflation. This underpins USD demand, creating downward pressure on EUR/USD. EUR Side (Euro Weakness) The ECB remains cautious; economic growth in Germany and France is sluggish. Eurozone inflation has been moderating, reducing the need for aggressive rate hikes. Market perception: monetary divergence (ECB dovish vs. Fed hawkish) favors USD strength. Upcoming Catalysts U.S. GDP & PCE data → may boost or weaken USD depending on inflation trajectory. ECB statements → any dovish tone could accelerate bearish momentum. Geopolitical tensions (e.g., energy prices, EU fiscal instability) also impact Euro sentiment. --- 🔍 4. Professional Summary Aspect Bias Key Notes Short-Term (H4–Daily) Neutral → Slightly Bullish Price sitting at support zone (1.1580–1.1600); possible accumulation phase Medium-Term (Weekly) Bearish Structure shows lower highs and consistent supply rejections Fundamental Sentiment USD Stronger Fed > ECB in rate outlook, favoring downside pressure on EUR/USD --- 📈 Final Trading Outlook Buy Zone: 1.1550–1.1600 (confirmation needed with bullish rejection candle) Take-Profit Targets: 1.1700 → 1.1790 → 1.1880 Sell Zone (Rejection Area): 1.1790–1.1880 Stop-Loss (Bullish Setup): Below 1.1500 > Bias: Watch for bullish accumulation around 1.1550–1.1600 — but remain cautious until a breakout above 1.1700 confirms a bullish reversal. ------ let’s break down the volume analysis on your EUR/USD H4 chart in professional institutional terms: --- 🔍 1. General Volume Context (H4 Timeframe) The volume bars at the bottom show a clear rhythm: Periods of low, consistent volume during sideways phases. Sharp spikes at structural turning points (breakouts, trendline retests, or false breakouts). This indicates that institutional activity is concentrated around key liquidity zones rather than random intervals — confirming that big players act at precise price levels. --- 🧭 2. Volume-Price Relationship A. Rising Volume with Falling Price Notice that during each down-leg from 1.1880 → 1.1600, the volume expanded. This suggests strong participation from sellers, likely institutional distribution. However, when price reached around 1.1580–1.1600, volume spiked sharply, but price stopped falling — a classic absorption pattern (smart money buying into panic selling). ✅ Interpretation: Smart money was likely accumulating buy orders near 1.1600 while retail traders continued shorting. --- B. Low Volume in Consolidation Between 1.1600–1.1700, volume remained suppressed. This represents indecision or absorption, where institutions accumulate positions quietly before a larger move. ✅ Interpretation: The market is preparing for a breakout, with hidden accumulation likely taking place along your ascending trendline support. --- C. Volume Confirmation for Breakouts Every prior breakout (up or down) was preceded by a volume uptick — meaning momentum confirmation came after smart money filled positions. Watch for another volume expansion near 1.1700 or 1.1550: A high-volume bullish breakout above 1.1700 confirms renewed demand. A high-volume breakdown below 1.1550 signals institutional selling dominance. --- 🧠 3. Institutional Footprint via Volume Price Action Volume Behavior Institutional Intent 1.1880–1.1790 High volume + Lower highs Distribution / selling 1.1600 zone High volume + Sideways price Accumulation / absorption 1.1500–1.1550 Potential liquidity sweep area Smart money buy trap setup So, volume confirms two distinct smart money phases: Distribution occurred near 1.18–1.19 (red boxes). Accumulation is likely happening near 1.1550–1.1600 (blue trendline area). --- ⚙️ 4. Practical Volume Signals Going Forward Scenario Volume Clue Action Price breaks above 1.1700 on rising volume True bullish continuation Look for long re-entry Price breaks below 1.1550 on low volume False break / liquidity grab Wait for reversal Price breaks below 1.1550 on high volume Real bearish momentum Look for short setups targeting 1.1420 --- 🧩 Summary Volume confirms institutional accumulation around the current 1.1600 zone. No panic volume breakdowns yet → sellers are not fully in control. Expect a high-volume breakout move soon, likely determining the next trend leg.
Long
by enwemadufranklyn1989
2
EURUSD BEARISH CONTINUE TOWARDS 1.1528 AFTER HARMONIC REVERSAL 🔍 Pattern & Structure Analysis 1. Bearish Channel The chart clearly shows EUR/USD moving within a descending channel (yellow zone). Price is currently near the upper mid-section of the channel and is showing resistance there. This suggests the pair is still in a medium-term downtrend. 2. Harmonic Pattern (Possibly a Bearish Bat or Gartley) The labeled points X-A-B-C-D indicate a completed harmonic structure. Completion of point D typically suggests a potential reversal zone (PRZ). After touching D, price has started to drop, confirming bearish momentum from the harmonic completion. 3. Consolidation Phase Between October 21–23, the price was consolidating (small sideways movement). This consolidation near the channel’s mid-level hints at a potential breakout—likely downward, given the overall bearish structure. 🎯 Key Levels to Watch Level Type Description 1.1620–1.1640 Resistance Top of the consolidation area, also near D point completion 1.1600 Short-term support Currently being tested 1.1540–1.1528 Major Support / Target Projected next target, aligns with channel’s lower boundary and prior lows 📉 Trade Outlook (Technical Bias) Bias: 🔻 Bearish Entry Idea: Break and close below 1.1600 could trigger further downside momentum. Target: 1.1540 – 1.1528 zone. Stop-Loss (for shorts): Above 1.1640 (above recent swing high). Risk–Reward: Approx. 1:2 depending on entry.
Short
by Zickey_11
EURUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast - Q4 | W43 | D24| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W43 | D24| Y25 | 📊 EURUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:EURUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
Global IPO trends and SME listings1. Macro picture: why IPOs dipped and why they’re coming back From the 2021 frenzy to the 2022–2024 slowdown, three macro forces depressed IPO supply: rising interest rates, equity market volatility, and geopolitical policy shocks (trade/tariff announcements, sanctions, etc.). Those same variables determine the timing and size of any recovery: when volatility eases and public valuations become predictable, IPO windows reopen. By H1–Q3 2025 many markets recorded year-on-year increases in IPO counts and proceeds compared with 2024, signalling a cautious but visible rebound in investor risk appetite and issuer confidence. Major advisory firms reported a stronger pipeline and bigger average deal sizes in 2025 versus the trough. Key takeaways: Market sentiment and index performance remain the gating factor. When broader indices are stable or rising, companies and underwriters are more willing to price primary offerings. Policy shocks (tariffs, regulation) can cause abrupt freezes—as seen in mid-2025 in some reporting—so recovery is patchy and regionally uneven. 2. Regional patterns — Americas, Europe, Asia Americas (US/Canada): The U.S. market led global deals by proceeds in 2025’s first half, helped by both traditional IPOs and a revival of SPACs. Institutional appetite for high-quality growth names returned gradually; Nasdaq and NYSE regained traction for tech and fintech issuers. PwC and market banks flagged strong H1 2025 proceeds in the Americas, albeit with SPACs making up a significant portion. Europe: Activity recovered more slowly but steadily. European exchanges and advisors pointed to unused capacity—investor demand exists but issuers and banks are selective about timing and valuation. Several jurisdictions enhanced SME support programs and pre-IPO education to stimulate listings. Asia-Pacific: The region showed resilience and, in parts, growth—China and Japan saw notable listings and larger offerings. India’s domestic platforms recorded strong SME listing activity (see below). Overall, regulatory facilitation and local investor depth helped Asia outperform other regions in some periods. 3. The SPAC story: back — but different After the 2020–2021 SPAC boom and the 2022–2024 cooling (regulatory scrutiny and poor post-deSPAC performance), 2025 brought a measured SPAC reappearance. Sponsors and investors are more disciplined: fewer overly ambitious valuations, more sponsor skin in the game, and clearer disclosure/earnout structures. SPACs accounted for a materially higher share of listings in early-to-mid 2025 versus 2024, but they are operating with tighter governance and (in many cases) better alignment with private equity and institutional exit strategies. Analysts expect SPACs to feature as one option among many for sponsor exits rather than the overwhelmingly dominant vehicle they once were. 4. SME listings — scale, purpose and platforms SME listing platforms have evolved from niche curiosities into mainstream capital-raising mechanisms for smaller growth companies. Exchanges tailor admission rules, disclosure requirements, and investor education for SMEs to balance access to capital with investor protection. Why SMEs list? Access to growth capital, brand visibility, liquidity for founders, and the ability to use publicly traded equity for M&A and employee incentives. Popular SME venues: Euronext Growth (continental Europe), London AIM (though AIM’s structure is different), NSE Emerge and BSE SME (India), TSX Venture (Canada) and various regional growth boards. Exchanges increasingly offer pre-IPO programs and index inclusion to attract issuers. Euronext explicitly markets tailored listing journeys and investor pools for SMEs. India as a case study: India’s SME markets (BSE SME, NSE Emerge) saw large volumes of small listings and notable capital raised historically; BSE’s SME crossing 600 listings and significant funds raised shows the scale and appetite for this route. Local retail and HNI investors play a disproportionate role in IPO allocations on SME boards, and many SMEs use these markets as stepping stones to main exchanges. However, regulators and exchanges warn about uneven due diligence standards and the need for investor education. 5. Structural features and investor behaviour in SME markets Lower entry thresholds and lighter continuing obligations make SME boards attractive, but they also increase information asymmetry. Investor mix: Retail and domestic institutional investors dominate many SME markets; that makes them sensitive to local sentiment and sometimes less correlated with global capital flows. Price volatility & illiquidity: Many SME listings experience high initial pops or post-listing declines; long-term liquidity and governance can be variable. This means SME investing requires more focused research and risk tolerance. Graduation pathway: Exchanges promote “graduation” from SME boards to the main market—this pathway creates an investment narrative (list, scale, graduate) that attracts some growth companies. 6. Regulatory & policy shifts affecting listing dynamics Regulators in multiple regions have been balancing two objectives: broaden access to public capital for growth firms while protecting retail and unsophisticated investors. Typical policy moves include: Strengthening disclosure and minimum corporate governance standards for SME boards. Running pre-IPO education programs for management teams and investors (exchanges like Euronext emphasize educational support). Closer monitoring of sponsor and promoter actions (especially after SPAC turbulence). Incentives—tax or listing cost reductions—to encourage listings or relistings in domestic markets. 7. Challenges and risks (global & SME-specific) Macro sensitivity: IPO pipelines can re-freeze quickly if interest rates or geopolitical tensions spike. (Mid-2025 tariff headlines illustrated this risk.) Valuation gap: Private markets still sometimes price growth more richly than public markets will tolerate, delaying exits. Post-IPO performance: A significant portion of IPO underperformance stems from immature governance, overly optimistic forecasting, or market rotation away from growth. SME risk profile: SME boards have higher issuer-specific risk (concentration of promoter ownership, limited operating history). Robust disclosure and investor due diligence are essential. 8. Practical implications for stakeholders For issuers (SMEs & midcaps): A public listing remains a credible route to scale. Plan the listing only when financials and governance can withstand scrutiny; consider whether an SME venue or direct main-board listing better serves long-term strategy. Use pre-IPO education services exchanges provide. For investors: Diversify between established listed companies and a select set of SMEs—apply active due diligence on SME financials, promoter track record, and liquidity. Treat SME allocations as higher risk/high return. For exchanges/regulators: Continue improving surveillance, standardise disclosure across SME platforms where possible, and invest in investor education campaigns to reduce information asymmetry. 9. Outlook (near term) Most major advisory houses and banks saw a cautiously improving pipeline through H1–Q3 2025: more issuers willing to test the market, SPACs returning in a curated way, and regional variability (Americas and parts of Asia leading proceeds while Europe rebuilds). SME listings are likely to remain active where local investor demand and exchange support are strong (e.g., India, parts of Europe). However, a sustained recovery requires macro stability—lower volatility, clearer global trade policy, and accommodative capital markets. If those conditions hold, expect opportunistic pockets of high-quality IPOs and continued maturation of SME listing ecosystems. 10. Short recommendations (one-line each) Issuers: prepare governance and communications early; choose the listing venue that fits growth stage. Investors: treat SME allocations as active, research-intensive bets. Exchanges/regulators: keep improving disclosure, investor education, and mechanisms to promote liquidity. Advisors/underwriters: price conservatively, stress-test deals against volatility scenarios.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet