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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD – 1H | Demand Zone Retest & Trendline WatchFOREXCOM:EURUSD Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones EURUSD is consolidating after a rejection from 1.1682 resistance. Price is holding above the 1.1610–1.1620 demand zone, which acted as a previous bullish base. Short-term descending trendline is capping upside. Market Overview The pair attempted a bullish channel previously but faced strong rejection at resistance levels. Currently, it is retesting the demand zone, and buyers need to defend it to sustain any recovery. Bears will dominate if the zone breaks. Key Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case 🚀 → Hold above 1.1610 support → upside targets 🎯 1.1651 → 🎯 1.1666 → 🎯 1.1682. ❌ Bearish Case 📉 → Break below 1.1610 could expose 🎯 1.1575 downside. Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 1.1651 / 1.1666 / 1.1682 Support 🟢: 1.1629 / 1.1610 / 1.1575 ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Long
by PEAKALPHAFXMARKETS
EUR/USD into NFP: Bull Pennant + Inverse Head and ShouldersDespite the continued drumbeat for rate cuts in the US with markets now pricing in the possibility of three 25 bp cuts for this year and another three 25 bp cuts for next year, the US Dollar sure hasn't fallen much over the past few weeks. The month of July saw the USD finish the month as the strongest monthly outing in three years, but the NFP report the morning after brought a strong pullback into the mix. In USD, that pullback continued for another week and a half but in USD/JPY and even USD/CAD, that pullback stalled shortly after. Right now the big question is whether the Fed sees a cut in September as a one and done, where they can then read the data, or whether they see this as the start of a consistent cutting cycle like markets have priced-in. Key for that outcome will be tomorrow's NFP report, which as Powell had opined on back in July, the unemployment rate at 4.2% shows an economy near full employment. And when coupled with CPI and Core PCE numbers that are going up, that suggests that the Fed's rate policy doesn't seem too restrictive. It was the headline number from NFP last month that got all the attention, but notably, USD bears weren't able to stretch down to a fresh low. And in the pair's largest component, the Euro, EUR/USD was unable to push up to a fresh high. That said, there is bullish context behind the pair as we move deeper into the final month of Q3 and that's shown by both a bull pennant formation and an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Both formations are possible breakout setups and for them to trigger or activate, there has to be a push to a fresh high. Until then, it's just potential. But perhaps the bigger question is one of continuation potential, which is relevant to both EUR/USD and the USD. While both markets trended cleanly for much of the first half of the year, both have been in consistent digestion patterns so far in Q3, even with President Trump and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and, most recently, the Federal Reserve, pushing up the possibility of rate cuts. In EUR/USD, the same Fibonacci zone remains as resistance and this runs from 1.1686-1.1748. For bullish continuation, a break to a fresh high coupled with a higher-low test of support in this zone would open the door for a move up to 1.2000 and possibly beyond that. But - if bulls fail and prices break back-below the 1.1560 swing, then both formations will start to take on the shape of failure and that's something that will likely point to USD-strength. As noted above, both USD/JPY and USD/CAD can make a stronger case for setups for USD-strength and tomorrow's NFP data is the next piece of that puzzle. - js
by FOREXcom
This week’s main event: Non-Farm Payrolls – Friday at 15:30!This Friday, September 5, 2025 at 15:30 EET , the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) . This release could confirm whether hopes for a near-term Fed policy shift are justified — the very hopes that helped U.S. equities climb to historic highs in late August. Markets see this report as a checkpoint for both the ongoing rally and rate expectations. NFP and the markets: 3 possible scenarios Strong report: If job creation exceeds expectations, unemployment falls, and wages accelerate — markets may believe the Fed will stay cautious on cutting rates. Typically, this boosts the dollar and bond yields, while growth stocks and tech underperform. More traditional sectors like banking, industry, and energy tend to hold up better. Gold and crypto often dip under pressure from a stronger USD and rising yields. Weak report: If job gains disappoint, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows — this strengthens the case for a faster Fed pivot. In this case, the dollar usually softens, yields fall, and growth stocks, gold, and major crypto (BTC/ETH) gain on expectations of lower rates. Neutral report: If numbers align closely with forecasts and there’s no big surprise, markets may remain range-bound. Initial reactions fade quickly, and focus shifts to the details — such as wage data and revisions to past reports. Price action often becomes choppy and short-lived until the next key catalyst. The September 5 NFP release is a crossroads moment before the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. Volatility is almost guaranteed, and the market’s reaction will depend on the combination of headline jobs number, unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions. According to FreshForex , this setup offers tactical trade setups across forex, metals, and crypto pairs.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1643 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1656 My Stop Loss - 1.1637 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
BUY EURUSD NOW!Technical Breakdown: Market Structure: The chart shows a down-move retracement inside a bullish setup. Price is making higher lows and higher highs on the bigger structure. Imbalance / FVG (Fair Value Gap): An imbalance is visible below 1.1620–1.1600. Price is currently dipping into that imbalance, seeking liquidity before a possible bounce. Support & Resistance: Support: 1.1610 – 1.1590 (demand zone). Resistance: 1.1718 and 1.1736. If 1.1590 breaks, bearish continuation toward 1.1572 is possible. Trade Idea (based on chart setup): Entry: Around 1.1610–1.1600 (demand zone). Stop Loss: Below 1.1590. Target 1: 1.1718 Target 2: 1.1736 Risk-to-Reward ratio looks solid (>1:3). ✅ Summary: This chart suggests a bullish reversal setup. Price is expected to dip into the 1.1610–1.1590 demand zone, collect liquidity, then rally back toward 1.1718–1.1736. If the 1.1590 zone breaks, the bullish setup becomes invalid, and sellers may drive price toward 1.1572.
Long
by PIPSPHERE_NETWORK
EUR/USD consolidates at 1.1650 awaiting further cuesEUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1650. After another failed attempt to retake the 1.17 level, the pair is hovering on the 50 SMA, awaiting further cues. The RSI is neutral. Buyers need to break out above 1.17, the round number and falling trendline resistance to create a higher high and bring 1.1830, the 2025 high, into focus. Support is at 1.1580, last week’s low. A break below here exposes the rising trendline resistance at 1.1540 ahead of the 1.14 August low. FC
by FOREXcom
“EUR/USD 15m Outlook | Bullish Bias from Demand ZonePrice is currently balancing between the demand zone (buyers at 1.1607 – 1.1635) and the supply zone (1.1680 – 1.1720). 📌 If demand holds → Expect liquidity grab → retest → bullish continuation into supply. 📌 If supply reacts → Watch for rejection → intraday shorts possible before next rally. This setup is not about guessing direction — it’s about hacking the structure: let price tell the story, then follow the flow.
Long
by greenfire_fx
1
What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model?What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model? ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data, making it a popular tool in financial markets. Traders apply ARIMA to assess historical price trends and identify structured patterns in market movements. This article explains how ARIMA works, its strengths and limitations, and how it can be integrated into trading strategies for a deeper analysis of price behaviour across different assets. Understanding ARIMA ARIMA stands for autoregressive integrated moving average, a widely used model for analysing time series data. It’s particularly useful in financial markets because it helps traders break down price movements into patterns based on historical data. To understand how ARIMA works, it’s important to look at its three components: - Autoregressive (AR): This part captures the relationship between a current value and its past values. For example, if the price of an asset today is influenced by its price over the last few days, that’s an autoregressive process. - Integrated (I): Many financial time series exhibit trends, making them non-stationary (meaning their statistical properties change over time). ARIMA “integrates” the data by differencing it—subtracting past values from current ones—to make it more stable for analysis. - Moving Average (MA): Instead of focusing on past prices, this component looks at past errors—how much previous values deviated from expected trends—to refine the analysis. Each ARIMA model is defined by three parameters: p (AR order), d (number of differences), and q (MA order). Selecting these values requires statistical tests, autocorrelation analysis, and model evaluation methods like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In practice, ARIMA modelling is often used in trading to analyse historical price trends and identify repeating patterns. How ARIMA Works in Market Analysis Applying ARIMA to financial markets involves a structured process that helps traders analyse price movements based on historical patterns. Since markets generate continuous time series data—such as stock prices, forex rates, and commodity values—ARIMA can be used to extract meaningful trends from past performance. However, applying ARIMA to a time series isn’t done blindly; there are key steps analysts follow to try to improve its effectiveness. 1. Checking for Stationarity Most raw financial data isn’t stationary—it often trends upwards or downwards over time. ARIMA requires stationarity, meaning that statistical properties like mean and variance remain constant. Traders test for this using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. If the data is non-stationary, differencing (subtracting previous values from current values) is applied until stationarity is achieved. 2. Identifying AR and MA Components Once the data is stationary, traders determine how much past price data (AR) and past errors (MA) influence current values. This is done using Autocorrelation Functions (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Functions (PACF): - ACF measures how strongly past values are correlated with present values. - PACF isolates the direct relationship between a value and its past lags, ignoring indirect effects. These tools help traders estimate the AR (p) and MA (q) components of the model. 3. Selecting the Right Parameters Choosing the right values is crucial, and traders often rely on criteria like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to compare different model variations and select the best fit. 4. Applying ARIMA to Market Data Once the parameters are set, the ARIMA model is trained on historical price data. It analyses past relationships between price movements, smoothing out noise and detecting underlying trends. While traders can use ARIMA forecasting to assess potential market direction, it is usually combined with volatility analysis, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors to provide a more complete picture of market conditions. Applying ARIMA to Trading Strategies Traders use ARIMA to analyse historical price data and assess potential trends. Moreover, it’s often combined with technical indicators and other market factors to refine trading strategies. The key is understanding where ARIMA fits in the bigger picture of market analysis. 1. Identifying Trend Continuations and Reversals ARIMA helps traders assess whether an asset’s price movement follows a structured pattern over time. By analysing past relationships between prices, the model provides insights into whether an upward or downward trend has statistical momentum or if recent price action is deviating from historical patterns. For example, a trader analysing a currency pair might use ARIMA to assess whether the recent upward trend aligns with historical movements or if past patterns suggest a shift in direction. While ARIMA doesn’t account for sudden market shocks, it can potentially highlight whether recent price action aligns with established statistical trends. 2. Evaluating Market Volatility Price trends alone don’t tell the full story—volatility plays a major role in how assets move. Traders sometimes apply ARIMA to historical volatility data to assess how price swings have evolved over time. This can be useful when comparing different assets or assessing how external events impact volatility patterns. For instance, if ARIMA analysis suggests that a stock’s volatility has been steadily increasing over several weeks, traders may adjust their position sizing or incorporate additional risk control. 3. Combining ARIMA with Technical Indicators Historical price relationships are the primary focus with ARIMA, meaning traders often pair it with moving averages, Relative Strength Index, or Bollinger Bands to refine their analysis. If ARIMA suggests a continuation of a trend and this aligns with a moving average crossover or RSI strength, it can add confidence to a trading decision. Institutional traders and hedge funds use ARIMA in systematic trading models, often integrating it with machine learning or fundamental data. While traders may not rely on ARIMA as their primary tool, incorporating it into a broader strategy may help assess market structure, historical price relationships, and potential trend shifts, especially when used alongside other forms of analysis. Strengths and Limitations of ARIMA Models in Trading Although ARIMA is widely used in financial market analysis, like any analytical tool, it has strengths and limitations that traders should be aware of. Strengths of ARIMA in Trading Captures Historical Relationships Well ARIMA is particularly popular at analysing price trends that follow consistent patterns over time. If an asset’s price movements show a clear relationship with its past values, ARIMA can help quantify these patterns and provide a structured analysis of potential market direction. Useful for Short- to Medium-Term Analysis While some statistical models focus on high-frequency data or long-term macro trends, ARIMA sits comfortably in the middle. It works well for daily, weekly, or monthly price analysis, making it useful for traders who look at trends over these timeframes. Well-Established and Interpretable Unlike complex machine learning models, an ARIMA forecast is straightforward in its assumptions. Traders can understand why a model is generating certain outputs, as ARIMA is based on clear mathematical relationships rather than black-box algorithms. Applicable to Different Market Data ARIMA isn’t restricted to just price movements—it can be used to analyse volatility, trading volume, and macroeconomic indicators, making it a flexible tool for different types of market assessments. Limitations of ARIMA in Trading Assumes Linear Relationships ARIMA is used when price movements follow a linear structure, meaning past values have a direct and proportional effect on future movements. However, markets often experience sharp reversals, liquidity shocks, and external events that don’t fit neatly into this assumption. Requires Stationarity Many financial assets exhibit non-stationary behaviour—meaning their statistical properties change over time. ARIMA requires differencing to adjust for trends, but in some cases, even after differencing, the data still doesn’t meet stationarity requirements. Computationally Intensive for Large Datasets While ARIMA is widely used in trading, its calculations become more demanding as the dataset grows. For traders dealing with high-frequency or multi-asset strategies, ARIMA may require significant computational resources, making alternative models like machine learning-based approaches more practical. The Bottom Line ARIMA is a valuable tool for analysing historical price trends and assessing potential market movements. While it has limitations, traders often use it alongside technical indicators and volatility analysis to refine their strategies. FAQ What Is an ARIMA Model? ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data. It identifies patterns in historical values using three components: autoregression (AR), differencing (I) to make data stationary, and moving averages (MA). Traders apply ARIMA to assess market trends based on past price movements. Is ARIMA Still Used in Market Analysis? Yes, ARIMA remains widely used in financial and economic analysis. While newer machine learning models have gained popularity, ARIMA is still valuable for structured time series data, particularly in short- to medium-term market analysis. What Is the Most Popular ARIMA Model? There is no single most popular ARIMA model—it all depends on the dataset. The model is selected based on statistical criteria like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), which helps determine the optimal combination of AR, I, and MA components. How to Determine P, D, and Q in an ARIMA Model? The ARIMA p, d, and q values are determined through statistical tests. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test checks for stationarity (d), while autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions help identify p (AR terms) and q (MA terms). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD Targeting 1.04100 and 0.9700ASX:EUR / AMEX:USD (2W) Hedge funds are trimming net long EUR/USD positions, with COT data showing net longs at 118.7K contracts (week ending August 26, 2025), down from 123.4K, and shorts growing, indicating bearish shifts. Funds like Bridgewater and Soros are likely adding shorts amid tariff risks. Economic data / Rates: • Eurozone inflation at 2.1%, GDP +0.1% QoQ, and US tariffs threaten 0.5-1% GDP cut, prompting ECB rate-cut talks. • Eurozone GDP +0.1% vs. US +0.8%, unemployment ~6.4%, PMI ~50.1. 2025 growth forecast at 0.9%. • ECB likely to resume cuts post-September (from ~2.0%), Fed at 4.25-4.5% with 80% odds of a September cut, widening the gap. My View: EUR/USD likely to drop from 1.16400 to 1.04100 short-term, 0.9700 long-term (1:10 risk-reward, stop at 1.17575). Watch ECB Sep 11, Fed Sep 17, US NFP. Entry: $1.16400 🎯 Take Profit 1: $1.04100 🎯 Take Profit 2: $0.9700 Stop Loss: 1.17575 #EUR #EURUSD #Trading
Short
by SergioRichi
EURUSD sideways consolidation resistance at 1.1544The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1544 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1544 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1714 – initial resistance 1.1795 – psychological and structural level 1.1890 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1544 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1500 – minor support 1.1450 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1544 A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation