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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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USDEUX trade ideas

EU is slowly going upHi traders, Last week EU went up a little and then corrected down. After that it went up again. This pair is very slow going up to finish (red) wave 5. It looks like it forms a Diagonal or wave 4 (red) becomes a Triangle. So next week we could see price slowly going higher to the bearish Weekly FVG above. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the finish of a correction down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower time frame to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
1
EUR/USD: Watching 1.1750 Break to Open Path to 1.1800Hello everyone, let’s take a quick look at EUR/USD! After breaking through 1.1700, the pair is holding a clean short-term bullish structure. On the H4 chart, price is staying above the Ichimoku cloud with strong trading volume, showing buyers remain in control. The 1.1700 zone now acts as key support; as long as it holds, the path towards 1.1750–1.1780 looks clear. A confirmed close above 1.1750 could unlock further upside to 1.1800 – the pivotal level from the previous structure. On the news side, the USD is under pressure after a string of softer US data: August CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, reinforcing the case for an earlier Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation also edged lower and the ECB hasn’t taken a hawkish stance, but the advantage leans towards the euro as the dollar weakens. In addition, China’s softer CPI and PPI highlight a slowing economy, pushing investors towards safer alternatives – including the euro. All in all, the short-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish. As long as price holds above 1.1700, I favour a breakout of 1.1750 to open the way to 1.1800. On the downside, any pullback would find its first cushion at the 1.1600 FVG zone. Do you think EUR/USD has enough strength to clear 1.1750 in this move? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by EmmaChartist
2
EURUSD : Status @ 10/09 (update)Let's continue what I discussed on 10/09. Now, I provide more details. Perhaps many of you are discouraged when the price gives a false breakdown. Those who are easily discouraged should play something else. I added two more 'trendlines' so that we can see more clearly how the price reacts to it. Which is why we need to pay attention to these lines. This is the interesting part: 99.99% see a trendline at work. Perhaps only 0.01% see something else. The next important line is 1.1730 One thing to remember is that the 'trendline' is pointing upwards. This affects how we trade, especially when executing the entry. One should know the pros and cons of selling in an upward 'trendline' The red vertical line separates - when the line is below 1.1730, wait for a breakdown with 1.1730 as SL. When the line is above 1.1730 ......... So how would you trade this? As of NOW, we can see two strong lines - the 'trendlines' and the horizontal 1.1730 line I was saying that price might make a move before 17/09. Till then, expect volatility. If one can't handle volatility, do not play. But this setup above is very R/R friendly. Trade wisely. Good luck.
Short
by i_am_siew
1
EUR/USD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT Hello, Friends! EUR/USD is making a bullish rebound on the 12H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 1.157 level. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
2
EURUSD-LOND IDEAEURUSD was rejected 4 times from this trendline last time it broke above but failed to close above that this time finally EUR broke above this trenline and made a clear breakout also it formed a prominent higher high and higher low also it was in the accumlation box from almost 1 month struture is clearly supporting the higher prices. It is also bullish in higher times frame weekly and as well as monthly. mark your entries using buy stop order rest of things are mentioned in the chart. Book 20% on first TP Book 20% on second TP Rest you can manage on your own
Long
by CNxHoney
1
EURUSD DAILY TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Here's a professional and technical analysis of the EUR/USD daily chart: Key Observations: 1. Price Action Overview: The EUR/USD pair has been in an uptrend since May, making higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the price has been consolidating between two key zones, forming a potential bullish breakout pattern. 2. Resistance Zone (Red Boxes): There's a clear resistance zone between 1.18300 and 1.17300 (highlighted with red boxes). The market has previously faced rejection around these levels multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure. If the price breaks above this resistance, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. The bullish target would likely be towards the next resistance levels, with the potential for further upside momentum. 3. Support Zone (Blue Boxes): The blue rectangles represent support zones around 1.16000–1.17000. The price has found support at these levels during recent pullbacks. These support zones are key for any dip in the price. A retest of these levels might offer buying opportunities, with the price expected to bounce if the demand remains strong. 4. Trendline: A clear upward trendline is visible from May to September, showing a series of higher lows. The trendline is still intact, and any pullback towards this level would be seen as a continuation setup, especially if the price finds support there. 5. Volume and Momentum: Momentum seems to be strengthening with each higher high and higher low, suggesting that the bulls are in control. Volume increases during rallies, suggesting strong institutional interest in the market. Outlook: Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks and closes above the resistance zone at 1.18300–1.17300, expect a push towards the next potential target areas above 1.19000. A break above 1.18300 would likely confirm a new leg higher in the uptrend. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break the resistance and falls back below the support levels (around 1.16000), the price could test lower levels, possibly re-visiting the trendline or even the 1.15000–1.14000 range. In summary, the market is currently consolidating near key resistance, with a break above this level signaling potential continuation of the bullish trend. Support levels remain intact, and any dip should be closely watched for potential buying opportunities. 🔵 Blue rectangle...... institutions Buy zone or support 🔴 Red rectangle.......... institutions SELL zones or resistance
Long
by enwemadufranklyn1989
1
Monthly Forex Analysis: EUR/USD – Issue 210The analyst predicts that the EUR/USD rate will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
by MoonriseTA
1
Lingrid | EURUSD Upward Continuation Following Support RejectionFX:EURUSD is pushing higher within an established upward channel after rebounding strongly from the support zone. The structure shows consolidation breakouts followed by impulse legs, reinforcing bullish momentum. As long as price holds above the 1.1700 support, the setup favors further gains toward the upper resistance. This move aligns with the broader channel trajectory targeting 1.1788 near the resistance zone. 📉 Key Levels Buy trigger: Rejection 1.1700 with sustained momentum Buy zone: 1.1700 – 1.1710 accumulation area Target: 1.1788 zone Invalidation: Breakdown below 1.1700 support 💡 Risks A sudden USD rebound driven by CPI data could weigh on EURUSD. Failure to hold above the 1.1700 pivot would invalidate the bullish structure. ECB policy tone shifts or stronger US yields may dampen bullish momentum. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
7
Really simple EUR/USD Range trade for Pre FOMC with solid R2RA1 Setup, I know everyone will be playing this but when they make it this simple why wouldn't you. EUR/USD is stuck in a very tight range with no breaks above or below and I can see this continuing until FOMC where we're likely to see a huge move to the up or downside. Short the top of the range and long the bottom of it on Monday. Simple - Trade is below. Personally favouring down but for now, no need to worry about that. Shorts from 1.1745 → SL 1.1760 TP 1.1710 / 1.1700 R2R - 3:1
by TraderJay1990
1
NFP "Goldilocks" playbook? EURUSD triggers revealed!Markets are optimistic and consolidating ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with EUR/USD poised for a breakout, plus a quick technical overview of gold, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Mood : Buoyant—risk assets and equities are near weekly highs, bond yields are easing. Consensus : A "Goldilocks" NFP (not too hot, not too cold) is expected, supporting a 25bp Fed rate cut this month and possibly another by year-end. Catalysts : Recent softer labour data and dovish Fed commentary have fueled bets on a more accommodative policy stance. EUR/USD Conditional Scenarios Key Levels: Support at 1.1524, 1.1580, 1.1600, 1.1625; Resistance at 1.1700, 1.1735, 1.1760, 1.1830 Scenarios : Strong NFP : Sell 1.1650–1.1670, targets 1.1600/1.1580/1.1524, stop 1.1700 Goldilocks NFP : Range trade 1.1625–1.1700, buy/sell at edges, stops 1.1580/1.1720 Weak NFP : Buy 1.1630–1.1650, targets 1.1735/1.1760/1.1830, stop 1.1600 Risk : 1–2% per trade, always use stops, watch for ECB-driven reversals This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
7
Lingrid | EURUSD Trend Extension: Continuation OpportunityThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . FX:EURUSD is trading inside its upward channel, maintaining a sequence of higher lows that confirm bullish structure. Price is currently hovering above the 1.1695–1.1700 support zone, with the upward trendline acting as a critical base for continuation. A successful defense here could trigger a rally toward 1.1805 and potentially the 1.1850 resistance area. However, repeated failures to sustain momentum above mid-channel levels show that buyers face strong resistance overhead. The broader setup still favors upside as long as 1.1690 holds firm. 💡 Risks: A breakdown below 1.1690 would invalidate the bullish channel and expose downside toward 1.1560. Stronger US economic data or hawkish Fed commentary could boost USD, pressuring EURUSD lower. Weakness in eurozone fundamentals could limit buying strength and stall continuation attempts. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
5
What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets?What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets? Systematic risk affects all traders, no matter the strategy or asset class. It comes from market-wide forces—like interest rates, inflation, or geopolitical shifts—that influence entire sectors at once. Unlike unsystematic risk, it can’t be avoided through diversification. This article breaks down what systematic risk is, how it’s measured, and how traders may incorporate it into their analysis. What Is Systematic Risk? Systematic risk refers to the kind of risk that affects entire markets or economies, rather than just individual assets. It’s the result of large-scale forces—like inflation, interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical conflict, or economic slowdowns—that ripple through multiple asset classes at once. A sharp rise in interest rates, for example, tends to push bond prices lower and can drag down equity valuations as borrowing costs climb and consumer spending slows. Similarly, during a global event like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 shock in 2020, almost all sectors saw simultaneous drawdowns. These events weren’t tied to poor management or bad earnings reports—they were macro-level shifts that hit everything. Because it’s a largely undiversifiable risk, systematic risk is a key consideration for traders assessing overall market exposure. It often drives correlation between assets, particularly in times of stress. This is why equities, commodities, and even currencies can start to move in the same direction during periods of heightened volatility. So, can systematic risk be diversified against? Only relatively speaking. Traders and investors may shift into defensive positions to limit potential drawdowns (e.g. gold, bonds, healthcare stocks vs tech companies). However, no matter how diversified a portfolio is, it remains exposed to this kind of risk because it’s tied to broader market movements rather than asset-specific events. Note: systematic risk differs from systemic risk. The systemic risk definition relates to the potential collapse of the financial system, such as in a banking crisis. It is rare but severe. Systematic vs Unsystematic Risk Systematic risk is broad and market-driven. Unsystematic risk, on the other hand, is specific to a company or sector. It might come from a product failure, a major lawsuit, or a change in management. For example, if a tech company misses earnings due to poor execution, that’s unsystematic. If the entire sector drops because of a global chip shortage or policy change, that’s systematic. Unsystematic risk can be reduced through diversification. Holding assets across industries may help spread exposure to isolated events. But systematic risk can’t be avoided by simply adding more assets. It affects everything to some extent. That’s why traders track both systematic and unsystematic risk—understanding where their risk is concentrated and whether their exposure is tied to broad market movements or individual events. Clear separation of the two may help traders analyse potential drawdowns more accurately. Key Drivers of Systematic Risk Systematic risks tend to stem from structural or macroeconomic forces, and while they can’t be avoided, traders can track them to better understand the environment they’re operating in. Below are some of the most common types of systematic risk and how they influence market-wide movement. Monetary Policy Central banks play a huge role in shaping market conditions. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive, which tends to slow down spending and investment. That usually puts downward pressure on risk assets like equities. Conversely, rate cuts or quantitative easing often lead to a surge in asset prices as liquidity improves. Traders closely monitor central bank statements and economic projections, especially from institutions like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. Inflation and Deflation Inflation affects everything from consumer behaviour to corporate earnings. Higher inflation can reduce real returns and push central banks to tighten policy. Deflation, though less common, signals weak demand and falling prices, which also tends to hurt equities. Commodities, currencies, and bonds often react sharply to inflation data. Economic Cycles Booms and busts are among the most well-known examples of systematic risk, influencing everything from job creation to earnings growth. During expansions, risk appetite tends to rise. In downturns, investors often shift towards defensive assets or cash. GDP figures, manufacturing data, and consumer spending are key indicators traders watch. Geopolitical Risk Elections, wars, trade tensions, and sanctions can drive sharp market reactions. These events introduce uncertainty, increase volatility, and can disrupt global supply chains or investor sentiment. Market Sentiment and Liquidity Panic selling or sudden shifts in positioning can cause assets to move together, even if fundamentals don’t support it. During liquidity crunches, correlations spike and markets can move sharply on little news. This is often driven by leveraged positioning unwinding or large institutions adjusting risk. Measuring Systematic Risk Systematic risk can’t be removed, but it can be measured, and that may help traders understand how exposed they are to broader market swings. One of the most widely used tools is beta. Beta shows how much an asset moves relative to a benchmark index. A beta of 1 indicates that the asset typically moves in the same direction and by a similar percentage as the overall market. Above 1 means it’s more volatile than the market; below 1 means it’s less volatile. For example, a high-growth stock with a beta of 1.5 would typically move 15% when the market moves 10%. Another approach is Value at Risk (VaR), which estimates the potential loss on a portfolio under normal market conditions over a specific timeframe. It doesn’t isolate systematic risk but gives a sense of how exposed the overall portfolio is. Traders also watch the VIX—often called the “fear index”—which tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500. When it spikes, it usually signals rising market-wide risk. More complex models like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) use beta and expected market returns to price risk, but some traders use these tools to get a clearer picture of how exposed they may be to movements they can’t control. How Traders May Use Systematic Risk in Analysis Systematic risk isn’t just a background concern—it plays a direct role in how traders assess the market, structure portfolios, and manage exposure. By understanding how market-wide forces are likely to affect asset prices, traders can adjust their approach to reflect broader conditions rather than just focusing on technical analysis or individual names. Position Sizing and Exposure When systematic risk is elevated—during tightening cycles, political unrest, or global economic slowdowns—traders may scale back position sizes or reduce leverage. The aim is to avoid being caught in a correlated sell-off where multiple positions move against them at once. It's common to see increased cash holdings or a shift towards lower beta assets in these periods. Asset Allocation Adjustments Systematic risk also shapes how capital is distributed across asset classes. For example, during periods of strong economic growth, traders may lean into equities, particularly cyclical sectors. In contrast, during uncertain or contractionary periods, there may be a move towards defensive sectors, fixed income, or commodities like gold. Some rotate between assets based on macro trends to stay aligned with the dominant forces driving markets. Macro Analysis and Scenario Planning Understanding systematic risks may help traders prepare for potential market reactions. A trader can analyse upcoming interest rate decisions, inflation prints, or geopolitical tensions and assess which assets are likely to be most sensitive. If recession risk increases, they may expect higher equity volatility and reassess exposure accordingly. Correlation Tracking As systematic risk rises, correlations between assets often increase. Traders who normally count on diversification may find their positions moving together. Keeping track of these shifts may help reduce false confidence in portfolio structure and encourage more dynamic risk controls. Systematic Risk: Considerations As mentioned above, systematic risk is mostly unpredictable and fully unavoidable. There are some other things you should consider when trying to analyse it. Here are a few points traders often keep in mind: - Lagging indicators: Metrics like GDP or inflation are backwards-looking. Markets often react before the data confirms the trend. - False signals: Beta, VaR, and the VIX can be useful, but they’re not foolproof. A low VIX doesn’t guarantee calm markets, and beta doesn’t account for real market conditions. - Uncertainty around timing: Even if the presence of risk is clear, the timing and severity of its impact are hard to analyse with precision. - Overreaction risk: Markets can price in fear quickly, and traders may misjudge whether a reaction is justified or temporary. - Diversification assumptions: Assets that usually behave differently may move in sync during stress. Risk models can underestimate this. The Bottom Line Systematic risk is unavoidable, but understanding how it moves through markets may support traders in making decisions. By tracking macro drivers and adjusting positions accordingly, traders may respond with more clarity during volatile periods. However, it is important to take into account all the difficulties that systematic risk brings. FAQ What Is Systematic Risk? Systematic risk refers to the type of risk that affects an entire market or economy. It’s driven by macroeconomic forces such as interest rates, inflation, economic health, and geopolitical events. Because it impacts broad segments of the market, systematic risk cannot be eliminated through diversification. What Is Systematic Risk vs Unsystematic Risk? Systematic risk is market-wide and linked to broader economic conditions. Unsystematic risk is asset-specific and tied to events like company earnings, leadership changes, or industry developments. According to theory, unsystematic risk can be reduced by holding a diversified portfolio, while systematic risk remains even with strong diversification. What Are the Five Systematic Risks? The main categories include interest rate risk, inflation risk, economic cycle risk, geopolitical risk, and currency or exchange rate risk. Each can affect multiple asset classes and contribute to broad market shifts. Can You Diversify Systematic Risk? No. While diversification may help reduce unsystematic risk, systematic risk affects most assets. It might be managed, not avoided. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD Falls Amid Rapidly Changing News FlowEUR/USD Falls Amid Rapidly Changing News Flow There was important news yesterday. According to Forex Factory: → The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at 2.15% (as expected). → US data indicated a rise in inflation – albeit a moderate one. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI increased from 2.7% to 2.9%, in line with analysts’ expectations. At the same time, all incoming news is being assessed by traders in light of the forthcoming Federal Reserve decision – according to media reports, yesterday’s data did not have a significant impact on market sentiment, and a 25-basis-point rate cut is still expected. EUR/USD market movements suggest a balance, although some bearish signs are emerging. EUR/USD Technical Analysis Using key highs and lows, we can draw an ascending channel (highlighted in blue) that began in August. From a bearish perspective: → The 1.17400 level has regained its role as resistance. → The steep upward trend from early September (shown in orange) was broken by bears around 1.17525. Therefore, the 1.17400–1.17525 zone appears to act as a resistance area, which is already influencing the price: → Last night, EUR/USD’s rise was halted within this zone. → Today, a move above 1.17400 led to a sharp downward reversal. Overall, this behaviour has formed a bearish double top pattern. From a bullish perspective: → Yesterday, the price formed a long lower shadow (indicated by the arrow). → During the subsequent rise, the strength of buyers was confirmed. A bullish Fair Value Gap pattern might form, and this area (where buyers and sellers create an imbalance) might act as support. However, if the bears continue to assert their emerging dominance, the FVG area could be broken, in which case it may then act as resistance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
EURUSD Bullish Channel: Strategy for a Precise Long Entry💶 EURUSD Update 💶 The EURUSD is currently in a bullish trend 🟢📈. On the 4H timeframe ⏰, price is moving cleanly within a trending channel 📊, printing higher highs and higher lows 🔼🔼. For my setup, I’ll be waiting for a bullish break of market structure (BOS) 🔓 on the 30M timeframe ⏰. That’s the key confirmation I want before considering a buy entry 🎯. In the video, we break down trend analysis 📈, price action 💡, market structure 🏗️, and my entry strategy 🎯 for timing trades with precision. ⚠️ This is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. 📚
Long
by fxtraderanthony
1