EURUSD potential roadmapEURUSD over the coming weeks, there is potential that a major w3 is forming. looking for confirmation and entry signals. as some major shorts and longs are on route.
Trade ideas
EURUSDLooking for a Short opportunity in EURUSD,
Have to look at fundamental and technical before taking on trade.
EURUSD NEW OUTLOOK According to H1 EURUSD marker running in Side wave now market almost at RESISTANCE ZONE and it will be touch soon so if you are interested then Go sell from here best for you use proper money management dont be greedy
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
REGARD ALBERT
This is the continuation of weekly to daily, to why its longHere is a continuation of the weekly structure long, and so inside of the weekly swings i look for daily swings and retests of the weekly break zones.
Inside the daily i look for H4 and H1 retests and break zone with long bias.
And finally I will enter with M15 or M5 if structure shows it, long, and this is how such high risk to reward can be achieved with just under 50% win rate.
EURUSD Massive Short! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1741
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 1.1749
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1727
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EUR/USD – Wedge Pattern AnalysisThe EUR/USD (1H timeframe) is currently completing a descending wedge structure (A–B–C–D–E), showing signs of exhaustion after forming a new higher high near 1.17599.
🔹 Market Structure Overview:
The price broke above the previous descending wedge but faced resistance near 1.17599, forming a potential reversal zone.
A corrective leg is expected toward 1.17213, aligning with short-term liquidity before the next impulsive move.
The projected ABCDE structure suggests a final touch at E, followed by a possible bullish breakout from the wedge.
📊 Technical Insights:
Pattern: Descending Wedge (bullish continuation setup)
Resistance zone: 1.17500 – 1.17600
Support zone: 1.17200 – 1.17050
Confirmation level: Break and close above 1.17600
⚡ Trading Plan:
Wait for a confirmed retest of 1.17200–1.17100 region before re-entering long positions.
Aggressive buyers can monitor lower timeframe momentum near point E for early confirmation.
🧠 Timeframe: 1H
💰 Pair: EUR/USD
🎯 Bias: Bullish continuation after wedge completion
EUR USD - KEY LEVEL TO WATCH NEXT WEEK FOR A POTENTIAL SELLOFFTwo week ago EUR USD broke a really important trendlline and we saw a re-test, however, the price refused to selloff; this makes me believe that we will see another test of the broken trendline next week in the key level of resistance.
SETUP AS FOLLOW:
SELL ENTRY 1.18300 - 1.18600
STOP LOSS 1.19090
TARGETS: 1.16400 and 1.15800
If the DXY gets strong and we see a clear break of 98.750 we could keep this sell entry to the next target 1.14440.
Please like and comment this idea - I will certainly follow up through the week.
EU could go up one more timeHi traders,
Last week EU tried to go down after it rejected from the bearish Daily FVG. But on Thursday it rejected from the 4H FVG and started to go up again.
So it looks like that the downmove is corrective and this pair goes up one more time to finish a big ending diagonal.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a correction down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower time frame to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Elliott wavecount and patterns, then make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
EURUSD Long: Awaiting Bullish Breakout from PennantHello, traders! The price auction for EURUSD has been in a corrective phase, which has taken the form of a large downward pennant. This bullish reversal pattern has been defined by a series of complex lower highs and lower lows, with the price consolidating between the descending supply line and the demand line near the 1.1715 demand level.
Currently, the auction is at a critical inflection point, trading at the apex of this pennant where the supply and demand lines converge. The price has found support near the 1.1715 demand zone, and after a complex series of moves, is now challenging the immediate overhead resistance. This compression of volatility indicates a significant breakout is imminent.
My scenario for the development of events is a bullish resolution of this downward pennant. I expect the price to make an impulsive move and break out above the descending supply line. In my opinion, this breakout will have enough momentum to carry the price up to the major horizontal supply zone. The take-profit is therefore set at the 1.1815 supply level. Manage your risk!
EURUSD Short: Continuation Within the Downward WedgeHello, traders! The prior market structure for EURUSD was a bullish ascending channel, which failed and led to a breakdown. This reversal has established the current bearish market phase, which has taken the form of a downward wedge. This pattern has been guiding the price auction lower through a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that seller initiative is dominant.
Currently, the price action is consolidating within this wedge. Following a minor bounce, the market is showing signs of weakness and appears ready to continue the established downtrend, respecting the wedge's boundaries.
My scenario for the development of events is a direct continuation of the decline within this wedge. I expect the price to complete another leg down from the current levels. The take-profit is therefore set directly at the 1.1615 level, targeting the demand zone which aligns with the lower support line of the pattern. Manage your risk!
Euro will potentially Fall to 1.1680 After a Fake RallyHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. The market dynamic for the Euro has shifted from bullish to corrective after the price broke down from a prior upward channel. This structural change has led to the formation of a large downward pennant, a consolidation pattern that has been guiding the price of EURUSD lower. The market is currently trading near the resistance line of this pennant, with volatility compressing as it approaches the apex, signaling that a significant move is imminent. In my mind, an immediate breakout from this pennant could be a deceptive move designed to trap buyers. I expect that the price may initially break out to the upside and rally towards the major 1.1800-1.1780 seller zone. I think this rally will fail upon testing this significant area of historical resistance, creating a 'bull trap'. A confirmed and strong rejection from this seller zone would validate the overarching bearish scenario and likely trigger a sharp reversal to the downside. Therefore, I have placed my TP at the 1.1680 level, representing a logical objective for the decline that would follow such a failed breakout. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session last week, the Euro fluctuated within the Mean Resistance level of 1.174. Current market dynamics suggest that this pattern may continue, with a strong focus on the Key Resistance level of 1.182, potentially leading to a retest of the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.187 and the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.191.
On the other hand, recent price action suggests a potential downward movement toward the Mean Support level of 1.166. There is a chance that this decline could extend further down to the Key Support level of 1.140.
EURUSD SELLSCharts showing downward moves in this pair. Price is attracting towards 4H demand at 1.16000.
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.177.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.168 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EUR/USD Rejected Hard at 1.19 COT (Commitment of Traders)
Euro FX: Non-commercials slightly reduced longs (-789) but increased shorts significantly (+2,625). Commercials added both longs (+4,978) and shorts (+3,375), signaling hedging but with a defensive bias. → Net positioning remains positive on the Euro, but short pressure is increasing.
USD Index: Non-commercial longs rose (+1,541), while shorts decreased (-1,009). → USD strengthened by large speculators.
📌 Interpretation: Imbalance in favor of the Dollar, with the market turning more cautious on the Euro.
FX Sentiment
55% short EUR/USD vs 45% long.
📌 Retail is slightly skewed short → often contrarian → could support limited upside, but not extreme.
Seasonality
September is historically weak for EUR/USD (-0.01/-0.012 over 5–10 years).
October is also negative, while November–December historically show rebounds.
📌 Short-term seasonal bias (September–October) remains bearish.
Price Action
Strong rejection from the 1.1850–1.1900 supply zone.
Currently testing the 1.1740 area.
Bearish structure with probable downside targets at demand zones:
1.1650 → first key level.
1.1550 → deeper bearish extension if USD strength persists.
Only a stable recovery above 1.1820 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Trading Outlook
Main Bias: Bearish in the short term (Sep–Oct), supported by COT (USD strength), negative seasonality, and technical rejection.
Contrarian Risk: Slight retail shorts could trigger minor rebounds, but overall setup favors selling rallies.
EURUSD is bearish due to dollar strentheningEURUSD is bearish due to dollar strenthening. US economy is doing well currently.
Devaluation Competition in the Global MarketIntroduction: Understanding Currency Devaluation
Currency devaluation refers to the deliberate downward adjustment of a country’s currency value relative to other major currencies, typically done by its government or central bank. The purpose of this policy move is to make a country’s exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thereby stimulating domestic production, boosting employment, and improving trade balances. While devaluation can be a strategic tool for economic revival, when several nations adopt this tactic simultaneously, it can lead to what economists call “competitive devaluation” — a global “race to the bottom” where countries continuously lower their currency value to gain short-term advantages.
In the globalized economy, currency values play a significant role in determining trade competitiveness, investment flows, and overall economic stability. The competition among countries to devalue their currencies has become an increasingly common phenomenon during times of economic slowdown, trade wars, or deflationary pressure. This form of competition has far-reaching implications for financial markets, inflation, global trade balance, and investor confidence.
Historical Background of Competitive Devaluation
The concept of competitive devaluation is not new. It dates back to the 1930s Great Depression, when major economies like the United States, United Kingdom, and France sought to devalue their currencies to support domestic industries amid collapsing global demand. This led to a series of retaliatory devaluations, trade barriers, and protectionist measures — ultimately worsening the global economic crisis.
After World War II, the Bretton Woods system (1944–1971) established a fixed exchange rate regime anchored to the US dollar, which was convertible to gold. This arrangement temporarily curtailed currency devaluation wars, as countries maintained stable exchange rates to support post-war recovery. However, once the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, currencies began to float freely, reintroducing exchange rate volatility and renewed opportunities for competitive devaluation.
In the 1980s and 1990s, emerging economies often used currency devaluation as a tool to enhance export competitiveness. China’s undervalued yuan policy, for example, contributed significantly to its export-led growth model, leading to global imbalances and tensions with trading partners.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 reignited this phenomenon. With central banks lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity through quantitative easing (QE), currencies depreciated sharply. The US dollar weakened, prompting nations like Japan, China, and several European countries to respond with similar monetary easing to protect their exports. Thus, a new phase of currency wars began, shaping the modern dynamics of global economic competition.
Mechanics of Devaluation and Its Immediate Effects
Devaluation is primarily achieved through monetary and fiscal policy tools. A government may devalue its currency either by direct intervention (selling domestic currency and buying foreign reserves) or by indirect measures like lowering interest rates, printing money, or implementing expansionary monetary policies.
The immediate effects of devaluation are:
Boost in Exports:
A weaker currency makes a nation’s goods cheaper for foreign buyers, encouraging exports and improving trade balance.
Reduced Imports:
Imported goods become more expensive, discouraging domestic consumption of foreign products and promoting local industries.
Increased Inflation:
Higher import prices can lead to inflation, as raw materials, fuel, and consumer goods become costlier.
Debt Burden:
For countries with foreign-denominated debt, devaluation increases repayment costs, potentially worsening fiscal stability.
Short-term Economic Growth:
Export-driven sectors experience growth, helping reduce unemployment and stimulate production.
While these outcomes can be beneficial in the short term, the long-term consequences of repeated or competitive devaluations can be destabilizing for the global economy.
Competitive Devaluation: The Global Perspective
In a globalized market, one country’s devaluation affects many others. When several countries simultaneously pursue devaluation policies, the collective result can undermine global economic stability.
This phenomenon is often referred to as a “currency war”, a term popularized by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in 2010. He described how nations were using monetary policies to weaken their currencies and gain trade advantages at others’ expense.
1. Trade Imbalances and Retaliation
When a major economy, such as the United States or China, devalues its currency, trading partners are forced to respond to protect their own export competitiveness. This can lead to retaliatory devaluations, creating global trade tensions. For instance, during the US-China trade war (2018–2020), the yuan’s depreciation was viewed by Washington as a deliberate attempt to offset tariffs, prompting accusations of “currency manipulation.”
2. Inflationary Spillovers
Devaluation often leads to imported inflation. For developing nations dependent on imported commodities like oil or machinery, this can significantly increase production costs, reducing consumer purchasing power.
3. Capital Flight
When investors sense a weakening currency, they may withdraw investments, leading to capital outflows, falling stock markets, and declining foreign exchange reserves. Emerging economies are particularly vulnerable to this.
4. Global Monetary Distortion
Competitive devaluations disrupt global financial markets by distorting interest rate differentials and exchange rate expectations. It complicates the conduct of international monetary policy coordination under institutions like the IMF or G20.
5. Loss of Credibility
Frequent devaluations can erode investor and consumer confidence in a nation’s economic management, leading to speculative attacks and exchange rate volatility.
Recent Examples of Competitive Devaluation
The 2010–2015 Currency Wars:
After the 2008 crisis, the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs weakened the dollar, prompting countries like Japan, South Korea, and Brazil to intervene in foreign exchange markets. Central banks flooded markets with liquidity, leading to sharp fluctuations in exchange rates.
Japan’s Abenomics (2012–2015):
Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan adopted aggressive monetary easing to weaken the yen and stimulate exports. This triggered similar measures by other Asian economies to prevent their currencies from appreciating.
China’s Yuan Adjustments (2015–2019):
China devalued the yuan in 2015, sending shockwaves through global markets. The move was intended to support slowing exports and signal greater market determination in exchange rate policy. However, it sparked fears of a global deflationary spiral.
Post-COVID Monetary Expansion (2020–2022):
During the pandemic, massive monetary stimulus and low interest rates weakened most major currencies. As economies recovered, central banks began tightening policies unevenly, causing volatile exchange rate adjustments.
Russia and Sanctions (2022–2023):
Following geopolitical tensions and sanctions, Russia devalued the ruble to maintain export competitiveness, illustrating how currency devaluation can be both a political and economic weapon.
Economic Theories Behind Competitive Devaluation
Several economic theories explain the logic and risks behind devaluation competition:
Beggar-thy-neighbor Policy:
This classic theory suggests that one country’s devaluation benefits itself by boosting exports at the expense of others. While beneficial domestically, it harms global demand and cooperation.
J-Curve Effect:
After devaluation, trade balances may initially worsen due to existing contracts and higher import costs, but eventually improve as exports rise.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP):
Over time, exchange rates should adjust to reflect relative price levels between countries. However, competitive devaluations often distort this natural equilibrium.
Mundell-Fleming Model:
This model highlights the trade-off between fixed exchange rates, capital mobility, and monetary independence — explaining why countries often use devaluation when capital is mobile and domestic growth is weak.
Winners and Losers of Competitive Devaluation
Winners:
Export-oriented Economies: Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea benefit when their goods become cheaper in global markets.
Tourism-driven Nations: A weaker currency attracts foreign tourists by making travel cheaper.
Manufacturing Sectors: Domestic industries gain competitiveness, leading to higher production and employment.
Losers:
Import-dependent Economies: Developing nations reliant on imported goods face inflationary pressure.
Foreign Investors: Currency depreciation reduces returns on investments denominated in local currency.
Consumers: Higher import prices reduce purchasing power and living standards.
Global Economy: Widespread devaluation undermines global demand, creates instability, and can trigger recessions.
The Role of Central Banks and Global Institutions
Institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank play critical roles in monitoring currency policies and preventing manipulative devaluations. The IMF encourages transparent exchange rate mechanisms and discourages countries from artificially influencing their currency values to gain unfair trade advantages.
The G20 summits frequently address exchange rate stability as part of global financial governance. Central banks — such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan — coordinate policy discussions to minimize harmful currency competition.
However, despite these efforts, monetary sovereignty allows nations to pursue independent policies, making coordination challenging.
Impact on Financial Markets and Global Investment
Competitive devaluation influences global markets in multiple ways:
Forex Markets:
Exchange rate volatility creates trading opportunities but increases uncertainty for long-term investors.
Commodity Prices:
Since commodities like oil and gold are priced in USD, a weaker dollar often drives their prices higher, affecting global inflation.
Stock Markets:
Export-oriented companies benefit from weaker domestic currencies, while import-dependent sectors suffer.
Bond Markets:
Currency depreciation often leads to higher bond yields, as investors demand greater returns to offset exchange rate risk.
Capital Allocation:
Investors tend to move capital toward stable-currency economies, leading to volatility in emerging markets.
The Future of Competitive Devaluation
In the 21st century, the global economy is more interconnected than ever. The digitalization of finance, rise of cryptocurrencies, and integration of global supply chains have changed the nature of currency competition. Future devaluations may not be purely monetary — they may involve digital currency manipulation, data-driven trade policies, or strategic fiscal interventions.
However, as globalization deepens, excessive devaluation will likely prove counterproductive. Investors demand stability, not volatility. Thus, maintaining currency credibility and sustainable growth will become the new measure of economic competitiveness.
Central banks will increasingly focus on coordinated policies, inflation targeting, and macroeconomic stability rather than unilateral devaluation. In a world of interconnected capital flows, the effectiveness of competitive devaluation is likely to diminish over time.
Conclusion
Competitive devaluation represents a paradox in global economics: while it can provide short-term relief for individual countries, it often triggers long-term instability for the global system. It reflects the tension between national interests and global interdependence.
The 21st-century global market needs cooperative currency management rather than destructive competition. As the lessons of history show — from the 1930s Great Depression to the post-2008 currency wars — devaluation races ultimately harm everyone. Sustainable economic growth will depend not on weakening currencies, but on strengthening productivity, innovation, and international trust.
OCT 2: S/R FLIP + 1H+15M FVGOCT 2: S/R FLIP + 1H+15M FVG
My original long idea after the sweep was not revisited, and I happened to also put a short trade on this S/r flip + 1H+15M FVG in expectation of a pull back.
Price nearly hit my stoploss though before hitting TP. I think it was a coincidence that the TP point is right in an SSL area.
Like, idk man... this isn't part of my trading strategy anymore.. but i guess this win is a good one because there's a lot of confluence(SR FLIP + 1H+15m FVG) on this trade.
Can't help but feel the TP point was based on luck though, as I don't remember setting it here specifically because it's an SSL area.
EURUSDCOT Positioning:
EUR: 64.64% Longs vs. 35.36% Shorts → Institutions still favor longs, but net change shows slight weakening (–0.51%).
USD: 36.53% Longs vs. 63.47% Shorts → Institutions more tilted to shorts, but weekly change (+3.56%) indicates strengthening USD sentiment.
Retail Sentiment: 34% Long vs. 66% Short → Retail is heavily short, which often supports bullish bias for EURUSD.
Seasonality: –0.69% (negative), suggesting October historically leans bearish.
Macro Data:
EUR Employment weaker than forecast (0.1% vs. 0.2%).
Eurozone Unemployment slightly higher (6.3% vs. 6.2%).
USD got a relative boost from interest rate sentiment (+1).
Interpretation: Mixed outlook. Institutions lean bullish EUR, retail is short (contrarian bullish), but macro/seasonality provide bearish pressure. Net effect → Range-to-Slightly Bullish Bias.
Technical Chart Insights (4H Chart @ 1.1742)
Strong support around 1.1680 – 1.1700 zone (recent lows).
Resistance seen at 1.1820 – 1.1850 (swing highs).
Price consolidating between 1.1700 – 1.1820, suggesting potential breakout soon.
Primary Setup (Bullish Continuation)
Entry: Buy near 1.1710 – 1.1730
Stop-Loss: Below 1.1660
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.1785
TP2: 1.1820
Alternative Setup (If Bullish Fails / Breakdown Scenario)
Entry: Sell below 1.1660
Stop-Loss: Above 1.1710.
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.1600
TP2: 1.1550
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in forex, commodities, indices, or cryptocurrencies involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. we are not responsible for any losses incurred from the use of this information.
EURUSD on the Brink: Continuation or Reversal?Previous analysis is playing out well — here’s an update.
Global (1W+)
— By my count, OANDA:EURUSD is forming wave C inside a zigzag — the terminal leg of a correction within a bearish macro context.
— Base plan: a bit more, slow upside over the next ~1–2 months (finishing a contracting ending diagonal), then a reversal lower.
Local (1D–12H)
— Lower TFs are dominated by threes/zigzags, pointing to a contracting ending diagonal.
— Fibonacci proportions are textbook; the final push should be “sticky,” with fading momentum.
Price Action
— Trading inside an HTF supply zone; upper wicks and slowing drive are visible.
— Local trend remains bullish (HH/HL) — no clear structure break yet.
— Major down-swings print as threes, supporting odds for one more push up.
— Invalidation of the local bullish bias: decisive 12H close below the last HL and loss of the wedge/ED support.
What do you think — a final pop before the turn, or does CMCMARKETS:EURUSD still have room higher?
TELL ME IN CM U PREFER LONG-TERM OR SHORT-TERM TO PUBLISH MORE?TELL ME IN CM U PREFER LONG-TERM OR SHORT-TERM TO PUBLISH MORE?
I WILL DO IT MORE
Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
EURUSD: ABC corrective moveEURUSD is likely to hold above the support of 1.1700 and extend the gains towards 1.18200 in the coming days.
EURUSD: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.17430 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.17339.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
