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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD Awaits Decisive Move to Confirm Bullish TrendThe short-term Elliott Wave outlook from the August 1, 2025 low projects an ongoing five-wave impulse structure. From that low, wave 1 peaked at 1.173, followed by a wave 2 pullback that concluded at 1.157. The internal structure of wave 2 developed as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave pattern. After wave 1, wave (w) dropped to 1.1628, and a subsequent wave (x) rally reached 1.1716. Wave (y) then declined to 1.1579, completing wave ((a)) in a higher degree. The rally in wave ((b)) topped at 1.174 before the pair turned downward in wave ((c)), unfolding as a five-wave impulse. From wave ((b)), wave (i) fell to 1.1682, and wave (ii) rose to 1.1709. Wave (iii) declined to 1.16, followed by a wave (iv) rally to 1.1665. Wave (v) then completed at 1.157, finalizing wave ((c)) of wave 2. The pair has now turned upward in wave 3 but requires a break above wave 1 at 1.173 to eliminate the possibility of a double correction. From wave 2, wave ((i)) reached 1.1697. A wave ((ii)) pullback should find support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, supporting further upside as long as the pivot at 1.157 holds. This analysis suggests cautious optimism for continued upward momentum.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
EURUSD Analysis – Consolidation Before the Next MoveOn the H1 chart (Image 1), EURUSD is locked in a box pattern, with resistance around 1.1730 and support near 1.1590. Price continues to oscillate within this range, showing hesitation from both buyers and sellers. On the weekly timeframe (Image 2), the pair is still respecting a larger uptrend channel, printing higher highs and higher lows. This suggests that, despite short-term choppiness, the broader momentum remains bullish as long as the structure holds above the channel’s midline. 🌍 Fundamentals in Play -Euro Weakness → Political instability in France and sluggish growth in Germany & Italy are weighing on sentiment. Investors remain cautious on the Euro despite small rebounds. -Dollar Weakness → The Fed is facing pressure from possible rate cuts, with the upcoming PCE Price Index being the key trigger. Softer inflation = weaker USD, giving the Euro more room to recover. -Net effect: Both currencies are under pressure, keeping EURUSD stuck in consolidation while traders await clearer catalysts. 🔑 What to Watch This Week -US PCE Price Index (high-impact for Fed’s rate-cut outlook). -Political developments in France (could restore or erode confidence in EUR). -Eurozone consumer & business sentiment data. ⚡ Trading Setup (near-term idea) Given the current range: -Buy idea: Look for long entries near 1.1600–1.1620 (support area), targeting 1.1720–1.1730 (resistance). -Sell idea: Short rejections around 1.1720, targeting a move back toward 1.1620. 👉 Both setups provide a RR ≈ 1:4 – 1:5 if managed carefully within the box. Breakout traders should wait for a confirmed close beyond 1.1730 (bullish continuation) or below 1.1590 (bearish extension). 📌 Final Summary EURUSD is trapped in a tug-of-war: Euro weakness from political instability vs Dollar weakness from rate-cut expectations. With price consolidating inside a well-defined box pattern on H1 while the weekly chart still supports the long-term uptrend channel, this is a market waiting for its trigger. For now, range trading with tight risk management may be the optimal approach until US data or Eurozone politics provide the breakout catalyst. ⚠️ This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. 👉 Follow me for more 5RR setups and in-depth market strategies.
by Mr1-5
EUR/USD Eyes Rebound — A Cautious Climb Toward Resistance In the unfolding story of EUR/USD, the price currently hovers in a fragile zone, testing the patience of bulls and the discipline of bears. After descending from recent highs, the pair finds itself clinging to **immediate support**, a level that has twice caught the falling price — a ledge in an otherwise steep terrain. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) left behind hints at inefficiency — a void in price action that often acts like a magnet for future moves. This, coupled with the recent reaction at support, frames a tentative bullish setup — albeit one marked clearly on the chart as "risky." There is no blind optimism here, only the recognition of a possible retracement born from structure, not speculation. Should buyers step in and momentum favor the setup, the first upside target rests near 1.16557, followed by a second level at 1.17058— each a waypoint on the journey toward the broader **major resistance zone** overhead, which looms as both a challenge and a potential climax to this recovery effort. Yet, beneath this setup lies a silent warning: the major support zone near 1.13925 remains intact, a destination the price may revisit should the bullish case crumble. The balance between reward and risk remains delicate. For now, the market waits, coiled between levels, as structure hints at a move — but only price will decide which direction the story turns next.
Long
by SmartEdgeTrading
EUR/USD – Uptrend Favored, FVG 1.160 as SupportHello everyone, looking at the H4 chart, EUR/USD is currently anchored just above the FVG 1.160–1.162 zone, coinciding with the edge of the Ichimoku cloud, forming a solid cushion for the next upward move. Above, the nearest resistance is around 1.165–1.166, where the supply FVG converges; breaking this area could push the price toward 1.170–1.172. Candle structures indicate buyers remain dominant: green candles close progressively higher, upper wicks are short, and volume remains stable — buyers are controlling the momentum. The Ichimoku cloud below continues to provide support, keeping the short-term uptrend intact. On the news front, recent US tariff policies have a strong impact: the removal of “de minimis” and temporary halts on international parcels have tightened supply, coupled with rising inflation risks. This supports EUR as a safe-haven, reinforcing the uptrend. Scenario: Uptrend continues: Price holds above FVG 1.160–1.162, breaks 1.165–1.166 → target 1.170 → 1.172. Invalidation: If H4 closes below 1.160, the uptrend is canceled, and price may retreat to deeper support zones. What’s your view? Will EUR/USD break 1.165 toward 1.170? Share your thoughts in the comments!
by EmmaChartist
4
Ethereum Exit Queue Hits $5B: Wall Street’s Big Bet? Ethereum Exit Queue Hits $5B: Sell Pressure or Wall Street’s Big Bet? Ethereum continues to dominate crypto headlines in 2025. The network’s staking system has reached an unprecedented milestone with nearly $5 billion worth of ETH awaiting withdrawal—a development that has sparked both optimism and concern. While some fear that this backlog could translate into significant sell pressure, others see it as part of a broader realignment toward institutional adoption. At the same time, Ethereum’s spot ETFs are outperforming Bitcoin ETFs by a wide margin, drawing in nearly $1.83 billion in just five days—ten times the inflows of Bitcoin funds. This surge highlights a growing narrative: Wall Street is tilting its focus toward Ethereum, not only as a cryptocurrency but as a foundational layer of modern finance. This article examines the implications of the record exit queue, the rise of Ethereum ETFs, and whether ETH is poised to outperform BTC as the crypto market’s dominant asset. Ethereum’s Record Exit Queue: A $5B Test for the Market Ethereum’s exit queue refers to the backlog of stakers who have requested to withdraw their ETH from the staking contract. Following Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake in 2022 and the Shanghai/Capella upgrade in 2023, staked ETH has become liquid, enabling participants to lock and unlock their holdings as they choose. Today, that queue has swelled to nearly 5 million ETH—worth around $5 billion. This is the largest exit queue in Ethereum’s history, and it raises critical questions: 1. Will this ETH be sold on the open market? After a 72% rally in the past three months, many stakers may be tempted to take profits, especially those who locked in ETH at lower prices during the bear market. A mass sell-off could put downward pressure on prices. 2. Or is this a rotation of capital? Not all withdrawals translate into selling. Many institutional investors may be withdrawing ETH to redeploy it into spot ETFs, where liquidity, custodial security, and regulatory approval are more attractive. Others may seek higher yields in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, liquid staking derivatives, or alternative strategies. 3. What about long-term holders? A sizable portion of Ethereum’s stakers are long-term believers in the protocol. For them, withdrawing doesn’t necessarily mean exiting—rather, it may signal repositioning into newer financial products that better fit their strategies. Ultimately, the exit queue is both a sign of Ethereum’s growing liquidity and a potential near-term overhang on price. The 72% Rally: Profit-Taking or Momentum? Ethereum’s price surge—up 72% in just three months—gives context to the withdrawal queue. After a prolonged bear market, ETH holders have seen one of the strongest rallies in years. For many, the exit queue represents an opportunity to lock in profits at multi-month highs. However, the rally is not just speculative. Several fundamental drivers are fueling Ethereum’s rise: • ETF approvals and inflows are bringing unprecedented institutional demand. • Layer 2 scaling solutions such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base are driving transaction volumes while reducing costs. • Tokenization pilots by major banks and asset managers are increasingly choosing Ethereum as a settlement layer. This means the rally is underpinned by both sentiment and structural adoption, making it harder to dismiss as a short-lived pump. Ethereum ETFs: Outshining Bitcoin One of the most striking developments is the flow of capital into Ethereum ETFs. In just five days, spot Ether ETFs have attracted $1.83 billion in inflows, compared to only around $180 million into Bitcoin ETFs. This 10-to-1 ratio in favor of Ethereum is rare, as Bitcoin has traditionally dominated institutional flows. Why are ETFs favoring Ethereum? 1. Utility Beyond Store of Value Bitcoin is often called “digital gold,” but Ethereum is more than a speculative hedge. It underpins decentralized finance, NFTs, tokenization, and smart contracts—areas with real-world utility that institutions can leverage. 2. Yield Through Staking Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum offers staking rewards. Even though ETF structures may not directly pass staking yields to investors, the narrative of a yield-bearing crypto asset appeals to long-term capital allocators. 3. Alignment with Wall Street’s Future Ethereum’s programmability makes it easier for Wall Street to imagine building products and services on top of it. From tokenized bonds to on-chain settlement systems, Ethereum’s relevance extends beyond speculation. As a result, institutional flows are tilting toward ETH, reinforcing its narrative as the infrastructure layer of finance. Will Ethereum Outperform Bitcoin? The question on every investor’s mind: can Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in this cycle? Ethereum’s Tailwinds: • ETF Momentum: With stronger inflows, ETFs could become a steady channel for demand. • Broader Use Cases: Ethereum is not just money—it’s programmable finance. • Institutional Adoption: Banks and asset managers are experimenting with Ethereum for tokenization and settlement. Ethereum’s Risks: • Sell Pressure: The $5B exit queue could weigh heavily on prices if too much ETH hits the market. • Competition: Alternative blockchains like Solana and Avalanche are vying for institutional attention with faster throughput. • Regulation: Ethereum’s staking system could attract more scrutiny than Bitcoin, which is generally classified as a commodity. Bitcoin’s Defenses: Bitcoin still has the advantage of being the original, most secure, and most decentralized crypto asset. Its supply cap of 21 million gives it unmatched scarcity. But in terms of growth opportunities and utility, Ethereum may have the edge. Wall Street’s Tilt Toward Ethereum Ethereum’s ETF inflows and VanEck CEO Jan van Eck’s recent remarks calling ETH “the Wall Street token” suggest a broader narrative shift. Wall Street is beginning to view Ethereum not just as another cryptocurrency, but as the financial operating system of the future. • Banks are exploring blockchain-based stablecoin transfers. • Asset managers are launching tokenization pilots on Ethereum. • Investors are reallocating from Bitcoin to Ethereum ETFs. This alignment means Ethereum is no longer just a crypto-native story. It is becoming central to how global finance evolves. Looking Ahead: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Promise The $5 billion exit queue is a short-term concern. If even a fraction of that ETH is sold, prices could face volatility. But in the bigger picture, withdrawals represent liquidity and flexibility—a sign of a maturing ecosystem. At the same time, Ethereum’s ETF success and its growing reputation as Wall Street’s blockchain suggest that institutional adoption is only beginning. If these inflows persist, Ethereum could not only outperform Bitcoin but also cement its role as the primary financial infrastructure of the digital age. Conclusion Ethereum is at a crossroads. On one hand, the record $5 billion exit queue raises fears of sell pressure and short-term volatility. On the other, Ethereum’s ETF dominance, institutional adoption, and 72% rally signal powerful momentum. The battle between profit-taking and institutional accumulation will define Ethereum’s near-term price action. But the broader trend is clear: Ethereum is no longer just competing with Bitcoin—it is carving out its identity as the backbone of decentralized and traditional finance alike. As Wall Street piles into ETH and banks experiment with on-chain settlement, Ethereum’s claim to be the future of finance grows stronger. Whether it outperforms Bitcoin in this cycle remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Ethereum has secured its place at the center of the crypto narrative.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Forex psychology: Sumner lull+ month end Goodness me, in ten years of trading Forex, I don't think I've ever been as disgruntled. Really, I shouldn't use words such as 'disgruntled', 'hope' or 'expectation' They are all words that induce emotion. But, we are only human, no matter what job, or life experience we are going through, it's impossible to block out emotion. The key is to recognise that emotion and act on it appropriately. Regarding trading, the principal of the decision remains the same: Gather enough information to make an informed decision. And actually, making a decision is fairly easy (once you have a grip on the market). My 'frustration' is bourne out of the fact that I'm spending the same amount of time (if not longer) 'gathering information' and looking at charts, but placing less trades per week . I can't quite pinpoint the exact moment this became the case, maybe it was the 'BOJ intervention situation' a couple of years ago, maybe it was the FED 'will they / won't they' (cut rates) situation. Maybe it's ,'president Trump creating uncertainty'. Ultimately, it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is making a decision you feel confident in. If that means placing only 1/ 2 trades per week and risking 5% per trade then so be it. But I'm nowhere near there yet..... I suspect the recent difficulty in feeling confident in placing a trade is due to quiet summer volume and (this week) month end flows. Let's see what tomorrow's PCE data and next week's 'september volume" brings.
by johnelfedforexblog
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 28 August 2025- EURUSD reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1755 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the strong support level 1.1600 (which has been reversing the price from the start of August), 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer Doji. Given the clear daily uptrend and the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.1755 (which has been reversing the price from the start of July).
Long
by FxProGlobal
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EUR/USD has been consolidating within a tight range between the key support at 1.1550–1.1580 and resistance at 1.1740 – 1.1800 in recent weeks. So far, the pair has failed to break out decisively, showing a lack of strong momentum. Possible Scenarios Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above the 1.1740 – 1.1800 resistance zone could trigger upside momentum, targeting 1.1850 – 1.1950. Bearish Scenario: If the 1.1580 –1.1550 support fails and price sustains below it, a deeper decline toward 1.1400 – 1.1450 becomes likely. As long as price remains inside this range, the optimal strategy is to buy near support and sell near resistance. However, for higher conviction entries, traders should wait for a clear breakout in either direction and trade accordingly. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
by HAMED_AZ
28
Euro gains ground, US GDP revised higher, German CPI nextThe euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day. US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell.US GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unemployment claims have been steady and today's release showed that claims dropped to 229 thousand, down from a revised 234 thousand last week and just below the market estimate of 230 thousand. Germany releases CPI report on Friday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for August. This would mark the second flat reading in three months, an indication that inflation is under control. Annually, CPI is expected to nudge up to 2.1% from 2.0%. Eurozone inflation will be released next week. Headline CPI is currently at 2.0% and core CPI is at 2.3%, with little change expected in the August release. The European Central Bank took a pause in July after seven straight rate cuts. The ECB meets on September 11 and with inflation largely contained and around the ECB's 2% target, the Bank is not feeling pressure to continue lowering rates.
by OANDA
London Session ShortAfter creating a lower low yesterday and retracing to this level, price has been pulling away from the highs that have been created. I am watching for volume to the downside. Dollar Index has a bullish setups for another run up. For EUR/USD, we have been in a tight range since start of Asia Bank Open. Since London opened, we have tested near the top of the range and the bottom of the range. Price is trading lower from the High of Session. After the most recent seller's strength candle, we see volume to the downside. US GDP will be released early into New York Session. This move to the downside, during London, may only play out til End of Session.
Short
by Student-Trader-Journal
EUR/USD – 1H | Market Testing Key Levels News Effect or Not? The pair is pushing higher, approaching a major rejection block above 1.1750. Price is currently consolidating near a previous daily high — bulls and bears are preparing for the next move. **Bullish Scenario:** * Hold above 1.1660 support * Break 1.1700 swing high * Next target: 1.1775 rejection block **Bearish Scenario:** * Fail to hold above 1.1660 * Drop below 1.1620 swing low * Deeper move toward 1.1540 demand zone **Key Levels:** * Resistance: 1.1700 / 1.1775 * Support: 1.1660 / 1.1620 / 1.1540 💬 Will price reject the block above, or break through for a stronger rally?
by CoreliquidityLab
1
EUR/USD | EUR/USD Holding 1.16 – Eyes on 1.17 Next! (READ)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 1.165 and has so far managed to hold above the 1.16 support zone. Based on the current trend and momentum, I expect a potential bullish move toward higher levels, with targets above 1.17. All the key supply and demand zones are marked on the chart, so keep a close eye on the price reaction around these critical levels! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
12