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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD - U.S Government Shutdown ? 📊 Setup: EUR/USD has successfully broken out of the descending channel on the H1 timeframe. Price is holding above the breakout level, supported by the Ichimoku cloud and a nearby demand zone. With potential U.S. government shutdown news weighing on the dollar, EUR/USD shows strong upside potential. 📈 Trade Plan: Buy Zone: 1.1710 – 1.1730 (support zone & breakout retest) 1st Resistance Target: 1.1837 2nd Resistance Target: 1.1891 Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above support zone and channel breakout. ✅ Support Factors: Clear Channel Breakout on H1 Confluence with Ichimoku bullish bias Fundamental support: Possible U.S. government shutdown → weaker USD outlook Strong demand zone cushioning downside #EURUSD #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ForexSignals #FXTrading #Euro #USD #Breakout #TradingView ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading. 💬 Support the Analysis: If this setup adds value, don’t forget to Like 👍, Comment 💬, and Follow ✅ for more timely updates.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
50
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 2, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is holding in the 1.17000–1.18000 area amid a weaker U.S. dollar due to the government shutdown and a deterioration in private employment estimates. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the October meeting remains high, and the pause in the release of some U.S. macro data increases uncertainty and reduces the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Against this backdrop, demand shifts in favor of currencies with more resilient domestic demand and lower fiscal risks. On the European side, the focus is on the flash estimate of HICP inflation. An acceleration in services, alongside moderate dynamics in the energy component, supports expectations that the ECB will pause to assess the price trajectory rather than rushing into further easing. This narrows the rate differential with the U.S. in favor of the euro. An additional driver of the pair’s strengthening is the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and rising risk appetite in Asia and Europe. Taken together, these factors form a fundamental case for buying EURUSD, provided risk is controlled. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.17500, SL 1.17250, TP 1.18250
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
First Time Losing... That The Reason is ObviousFirst Time Losing... That The Reason is Obvious I feel like this is a good losing trade. I basically won. Figured out the market bias correctly, found the target liquidity, and the narrative(POI) to get there. 1H POI, 1H TARGET, Bearish Orderflow, BSL Sweep, Divergence, Overbought, and entered on the 5min FVG after the sweep. All criteria for entry are aligned. Price went to where I expected it to, with momentum. The only mistake? Setting the take profit point farther than the 1H TARGET LIQUIDITY. That's it. After it hit that liquidity, price really just moved uptrend with momentum. I've read some comment on youtube that said, “Price seeks liquidity, and once that liquidity is filled, it rebalances back to equilibrium.” or some shit like that honestly it was such an awesome quote that i remembered the meaning of it(very rare). The exact wording, I forgot. well, that's it. Honestly, this might seem obvious to you, but this is such a big step for me. I used to NOT KNOW why my trades were losing. Like, what am I doing wrong, is the strategy wrong, should i find another strategy, should i switch to elliot wave, etc etc lmfao. But now... the fact that I immediately knew what was wrong with my trade, and the fact that only one thing was wrong and is easily fixable in the next trade... is such a breakthrough for me. Well, thanks for listening to my TedTalk.
Short
by reventioaxie
Bullish ContinuationHello Traders, Yesterday, the price moved in our favor. Today, we have a new bullish trend, and the price has already reacted to it. Our expectation is for the price to continue higher and close above the internal weak higher high. For now, I will be looking to trade long from the drawn area of the flip and the extreme demand zone. Since the distribution leg is large, we might not see a deeper pullback, and the price could continue higher. Happy trading! #PriceAction #BullishBias #DemandZone #TrendContinuation #SmartMoneyConcepts #ForexTrading #MarketStructure
Long
by fxtrends28
EURUSD H1 LONGRecently, the price has broken above the upper trendline, indicating a potential bullish breakout. This suggests a shift in momentum, and traders might consider this as a signal to enter a long position. However, confirmation with increased volume and a retest of the broken trendline as support would strengthen the validity of this breakout. Monitor for follow-through momentum to assess the sustainability of the move. Dear friends, I warmly invite you to like this post, leave a comment with your thoughts, and share it with your friends. Your support truly means the world to me! Your likes, comments, and shares are incredibly inspiring and encourage me to create and share more analysis with you all. Thank you so much for your kindness and encouragement! Warm regards, Max
Long
by MB2020MB2020
Waiting for another USD short: It never ceases to amaze me how quickly time passes, I'm shocked that the final quarter of the year has begun. Today's ADP data added to the USD weakness theme, mixed PMI data appears to have given traders an excuse to take profits on USD short trades. But my 'USD short bias' remains in tact and I'm currently awaiting the moment to enter another USD short trade. I'm still very curious about a potential AUD NZD long. I spent a few days feeling the chart was a little stretched, only to see the price keep going up. Then, an iron ore issue with china subdued the AUD and the chart fell too rapidly. I'm currently still waiting for the moment I feel comfortable placing the AUD NZD long trade. Wary of strange price action and widening spreads at market close, I'm content to wait. Possibly until the Asian session, or possibly tomorrow, when it'll be a case of gauging whether the market is waiting for NFP (assuming we get NFP data, depending on the government shutdown situation).
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
EURO/USD 123 TOP FORMATION CANCELEDHey traders so today looking at the Euro and at this time I can say that the top formation has now been canceled. They say picking tops and bottoms can be tricky I guess that true. There was strong resistance at 1.1833 and for a long time could not break above it well finally it did. Normally when you see a 123 top formation form on the daily charts it has 70% of being right in line with a trend change from uptrend to downtrend. However 30 % of the time we will be incorrect. This is one of those 30% trades. 😂 So what now well the fact that the market has closed above strong resistance is a strong signal that the market wants to move higher. Think of this this way if market breaks the ceiling (resistance) it's looking to find a new ceiling. If market breaks floor (support) its searching for a new floor. However there is a conflicting signal with the COT they are net long which could lead to strong profit taking. So therefore Scenarios for today. Bullish- I think wait for a pullback to at least a test of support the old 2 point at 1.1555 it the market bounces of it that should be sign that wants to hold that level and maybe take shot long with a stop below another support area. Bearish- The market needs to break back under 1.1555 and close below it in order to see a true sign that they want to push it lower if we can get daily close below 1.1555 it might be worth taking a shot short again on a rally back to resistance at 1.1555 the put a protective stop higher somewhere close to higher resistance. Commitment of Traders- This is very interesting because although market made new high they are still overcrowed long at 120,000 contracts at one point they will have to start closing those long positions because there will eventually be no one left to sell to if everyone is already long. Will check report again this Friday and see what the instiutional positioning looks like. But for now it looks like a long squeeze is building which could possibly in theory catapult market lower if they start to unwind it like they did last year in Sept 2024. Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford RISK DISCLOSURE TRADING IN THE FUTURES AND FOREX MARKET INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK. ALWAYS CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AS HIGH RISK ASSET CLASSES MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY ASSETS. ALL IDEAS ARE MADE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
by TradeTheIndex
EURUSD — Supply Zone Rejection Reinforces Bearish Outlook📉 EURUSD — Supply Zone Rejection Reinforces Bearish Outlook EURUSD continues to respect the bearish structure after breaking below the ascending trendline in late September. Price has now retested the 1.1740–1.1760 supply zone, which aligns with the broken trendline and previous support turned resistance. Currently trading around 1.1725, sellers appear to be defending this level, keeping the focus on potential continuation lower toward the 1.1620–1.1600 demand zone. 🔎 Technical Breakdown (4H timeframe): Trendline break confirmed ✅ Supply zone retest at 1.1740–1.1760 ✅ Repeated rejection showing bearish momentum ✅ Next downside target: 1.1600 demand zone ✅ 🎯 Trade Setup: Sell Zone: 1.1720–1.1750 Stop Loss: 1.1775 Take Profit: 1.1620–1.1600 Risk-to-Reward: ≈ 1:3 ⚠️ Personal trading view, not financial advice. 💭 Do you see EURUSD breaking lower into 1.1600, or will buyers manage to reclaim the broken trendline? Share your view 👇 #EURUSD #Forex #TradingView #PriceAction
Short
by PULSETRADESFX
1
EURUSD: Target Is Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.17271 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.17136.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Short
by FreeXauusdSignals
1