Trade ideas
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 2, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is holding in the 1.17000–1.18000 area amid a weaker U.S. dollar due to the government shutdown and a deterioration in private employment estimates. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the October meeting remains high, and the pause in the release of some U.S. macro data increases uncertainty and reduces the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Against this backdrop, demand shifts in favor of currencies with more resilient domestic demand and lower fiscal risks.
On the European side, the focus is on the flash estimate of HICP inflation. An acceleration in services, alongside moderate dynamics in the energy component, supports expectations that the ECB will pause to assess the price trajectory rather than rushing into further easing. This narrows the rate differential with the U.S. in favor of the euro.
An additional driver of the pair’s strengthening is the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and rising risk appetite in Asia and Europe. Taken together, these factors form a fundamental case for buying EURUSD, provided risk is controlled.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.17500, SL 1.17250, TP 1.18250
No change in EURUSDThe pair remains in a waiting phase ahead of tomorrow’s key news.
We’re watching for the formation of a higher low, which would open the door for trend-following long positions.
Wait for the news to pass before making any aggressive entries!
oct 1: SHORT TERM SELL oct 1: SHORT TERM SELL
- ngl price action seems trash...
- all bullish targets but price is consolidating.
- put up a sell limit just in case it gets hit.
First Time Losing... That The Reason is ObviousFirst Time Losing... That The Reason is Obvious
I feel like this is a good losing trade.
I basically won.
Figured out the market bias correctly, found the target liquidity, and the narrative(POI) to get there.
1H POI, 1H TARGET, Bearish Orderflow, BSL Sweep, Divergence, Overbought, and entered on the 5min FVG after the sweep.
All criteria for entry are aligned.
Price went to where I expected it to, with momentum.
The only mistake?
Setting the take profit point farther than the 1H TARGET LIQUIDITY.
That's it.
After it hit that liquidity, price really just moved uptrend with momentum.
I've read some comment on youtube that said, “Price seeks liquidity, and once that liquidity is filled, it rebalances back to equilibrium.” or some shit like that honestly it was such an awesome quote that i remembered the meaning of it(very rare). The exact wording, I forgot.
well, that's it.
Honestly, this might seem obvious to you, but this is such a big step for me.
I used to NOT KNOW why my trades were losing. Like, what am I doing wrong, is the strategy wrong, should i find another strategy, should i switch to elliot wave, etc etc lmfao.
But now... the fact that I immediately knew what was wrong with my trade, and the fact that only one thing was wrong and is easily fixable in the next trade... is such a breakthrough for me.
Well, thanks for listening to my TedTalk.
FVG to fill on the monthly macro pressure Liquidity taken, daily FVG filled. Expected continuation in NY open tomorrow. 50% of position closed at 1.17300 for 1:2
Macro pressure 🔻
EURUSD Bearish Continuation Pattern- Price formed bearish market structure with lower high & new lower lows.
- Price rejected at the Bearish Trendline with bearish candlesticks.
- Price broke Support level at (1.17260 - 1.17472) that turned to new resistance level.
* Setup Invalidated When Price breaks the bearish trendline and closes above it.
EURUSD Daily left head right shoulderEURUSD: Potential Left Head and Right Shoulder. on the 1H we see how it respected the daily fair value gap and we see how the lower time frames like the 5M, 15M, 30M, all showed us rejection from the daily trend and on the fair value gap.
Also if price does end up forming the left head right shoulder the retest could potentially wick into the EMA
Bullish ContinuationHello Traders,
Yesterday, the price moved in our favor. Today, we have a new bullish trend, and the price has already reacted to it. Our expectation is for the price to continue higher and close above the internal weak higher high.
For now, I will be looking to trade long from the drawn area of the flip and the extreme demand zone. Since the distribution leg is large, we might not see a deeper pullback, and the price could continue higher.
Happy trading!
#PriceAction #BullishBias #DemandZone #TrendContinuation #SmartMoneyConcepts #ForexTrading #MarketStructure
"Last stop before the drop?"On the 4H structure, we clearly see a developing bearish trend. The yellow box represents my Fibonacci retracement zone, which I call my 'Golden Zone.' Once liquidity from the left side has been swept, we could be in a position to take the short trade. I am currently in this trade and waiting for it to reach my 1-hour Demand Zone to exit. I'll read your thoughts.
EURUSDEURUSD: Potential Left Head and Right Shoulder on the 1H. We see how it respected the fair value gap and we see how the lower time frames like the 5M, 15M, 30M, all showed us rejection from the daily trend and on the fair value gap.
Also if price does end up forming the left head right shoulder the retest could potentially wick into the EMA
EURUSD H1 LONGRecently, the price has broken above the upper trendline, indicating a potential bullish breakout. This suggests a shift in momentum, and traders might consider this as a signal to enter a long position. However, confirmation with increased volume and a retest of the broken trendline as support would strengthen the validity of this breakout. Monitor for follow-through momentum to assess the sustainability of the move.
Dear friends,
I warmly invite you to like this post, leave a comment with your thoughts, and share it with your friends. Your support truly means the world to me!
Your likes, comments, and shares are incredibly inspiring and encourage me to create and share more analysis with you all.
Thank you so much for your kindness and encouragement!
Warm regards,
Max
EURUSD CAN FALLING SOON According to H1 analysis EUROUSD market continuously running in side wave now it be going in buy and touch the RESISTANCE ZONE so we have chance to go short from here is best for you
dont be greedy use money management
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
REGARD ALBERT
EURUSD Long P line +SL 1.17eurusd long trade looking for a move from session low reacting from p line trade.
Waiting for another USD short: It never ceases to amaze me how quickly time passes, I'm shocked that the final quarter of the year has begun.
Today's ADP data added to the USD weakness theme, mixed PMI data appears to have given traders an excuse to take profits on USD short trades. But my 'USD short bias' remains in tact and I'm currently awaiting the moment to enter another USD short trade.
I'm still very curious about a potential AUD NZD long. I spent a few days feeling the chart was a little stretched, only to see the price keep going up. Then, an iron ore issue with china subdued the AUD and the chart fell too rapidly. I'm currently still waiting for the moment I feel comfortable placing the AUD NZD long trade.
Wary of strange price action and widening spreads at market close, I'm content to wait. Possibly until the Asian session, or possibly tomorrow, when it'll be a case of gauging whether the market is waiting for NFP (assuming we get NFP data, depending on the government shutdown situation).
EURUSD let it dump to 1.13 first due to breakout of trendline We are looking for dump here for a while and first of all correction is expected to level like 1.1300 and then if that support hold strong price can easily continue this bull run and hitting target like 1.2200 .
also as you can see green trendline is broken to the downside and retest is completed soon high leverage dump will lead.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
EURO/USD 123 TOP FORMATION CANCELEDHey traders so today looking at the Euro and at this time I can say that the top formation has now been canceled.
They say picking tops and bottoms can be tricky I guess that true.
There was strong resistance at 1.1833 and for a long time could not break above it well finally it did. Normally when you see a 123 top formation form on the daily charts it has 70% of being right in line with a trend change from uptrend to downtrend. However 30 % of the time we will be incorrect. This is one of those 30% trades. 😂
So what now well the fact that the market has closed above strong resistance is a strong signal that the market wants to move higher. Think of this this way if market breaks the ceiling (resistance) it's looking to find a new ceiling. If market breaks floor (support) its searching for a new floor. However there is a conflicting signal with the COT they are net long which could lead to strong profit taking.
So therefore Scenarios for today.
Bullish- I think wait for a pullback to at least a test of support the old 2 point at 1.1555 it the market bounces of it that should be sign that wants to hold that level and maybe take shot long with a stop below another support area.
Bearish- The market needs to break back under 1.1555 and close below it in order to see a true sign that they want to push it lower if we can get daily close below 1.1555 it might be worth taking a shot short again on a rally back to resistance at 1.1555 the put a protective stop higher somewhere close to higher resistance.
Commitment of Traders- This is very interesting because although market made new high they are still overcrowed long at 120,000 contracts at one point they will have to start closing those long positions because there will eventually be no one left to sell to if everyone is already long. Will check report again this Friday and see what the instiutional positioning looks like. But for now it looks like a long squeeze is building which could possibly in theory catapult market lower if they start to unwind it like they did last year in Sept 2024.
Good Luck & Always use Risk Management!
(Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
RISK DISCLOSURE
TRADING IN THE FUTURES AND FOREX MARKET INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK. ALWAYS CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AS HIGH RISK ASSET CLASSES MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY ASSETS. ALL IDEAS ARE MADE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
EURUSD last leg of ending diagonalWe're observing the last leg of a leading diagonal wave 5 of $FX:EURUSD. Waiting for a strong movement of USD after that.
EURUSD — Supply Zone Rejection Reinforces Bearish Outlook📉 EURUSD — Supply Zone Rejection Reinforces Bearish Outlook
EURUSD continues to respect the bearish structure after breaking below the ascending trendline in late September. Price has now retested the 1.1740–1.1760 supply zone, which aligns with the broken trendline and previous support turned resistance.
Currently trading around 1.1725, sellers appear to be defending this level, keeping the focus on potential continuation lower toward the 1.1620–1.1600 demand zone.
🔎 Technical Breakdown (4H timeframe):
Trendline break confirmed ✅
Supply zone retest at 1.1740–1.1760 ✅
Repeated rejection showing bearish momentum ✅
Next downside target: 1.1600 demand zone ✅
🎯 Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: 1.1720–1.1750
Stop Loss: 1.1775
Take Profit: 1.1620–1.1600
Risk-to-Reward: ≈ 1:3
⚠️ Personal trading view, not financial advice.
💭 Do you see EURUSD breaking lower into 1.1600, or will buyers manage to reclaim the broken trendline? Share your view 👇
#EURUSD #Forex #TradingView #PriceAction
EURUSD Bearsih momentum, STRONG SELLWe have seen a false break on the EURUSD imperfect double top, followed by a sharp correction from the top. Then the price retest the broken TL right now. I see it as best opportunity to reentry or add a new sell position on EURUSD.
CHEEERRSSS...!!!
EURUSD, Finally being nice to me lol.I am still getting turned around on structure but as long as you show up you can catch it in alignment.
EURUSD: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.17271 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.17136.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
15m chart with a double bottom / 123 bottom / fib bottom. bounc15m about to hit a 123 bottom or a double bottom and go long. The entry/stop/tp are as marked by the green and pink box.
