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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EUR/USD is currently trading below a key resistance zone and has already pulled back to the broken ascending trendline. The price action suggests weakening bullish momentum, indicating a possible continuation to the downside. After some short-term consolidation in this zone, the pair is expected to resume its decline toward the highlighted support area. As long as the price remains below the resistance zone, the short-term outlook stays bearish. However, a daily close above the resistance would invalidate this bearish scenario. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Short
by HAMED_AZ
12
EURUSD Short: Targeting the 1.1560 Demand ZoneHello, traders! The prior market structure for EURUSD was a complex downward wedge, from which the price eventually broke out and entered the current consolidation range. This range has been established between the 1.1795 supply 2 level and a demand zone at the lows, with the price action rotating between these two key boundaries. Currently, the auction is at a critical inflection point. After bouncing twice from the demand zone at the bottom of the range, the price has rallied back up to test the key horizontal supply at the 1.1670 level. After a brief test, the price has been rejected from this area, showing that sellers are in control here. My scenario for the development of events is a continuation of this decline from the supply level. I believe this rejection confirms the range is still active and that the next logical move is a rotation back down to the lows. In my opinion, the bearish initiative from this rejection will be strong enough to push the price to the demand zone. The take-profit is therefore set at 1.1560. Manage your risk!
Short
by heniitrading
3
EUR/USD Forecast - Bullish Reversal AnticipatedThe EUR/USD pair is anticipated to rebound from the unfilled daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) following a sweep of key swing lows, specifically, the previous Asia session low and London session low, both of which align with the previous day's low (PDL), forming equal lows. This liquidity grab suggests potential for a bullish reversal. My near-term target is the next imbalance or an area where liquidity may have been engineered ,with London High forming EQ Highs on the buyside that can act as good DOL (draw on liquidity) as well. Bias: Bullish for EUR/USD today.
Long
by TheProfitRoomFx
EUR/USD | 2H In today’s EUR/USD analysis, we combine Elliott Wave structure with a rising wedge ABC correction to identify a potential reversal from the premium seller’s zone (1.1720–1.1769). Smart money traders are closely watching this region for bearish confirmation toward 1.1649. This setup reflects a wave-4 correction ending near the liquidity pocket, aligning with institutional order flow principles. Watch how price reacts inside the wedge — a rejection could trigger a high-probability short setup. 📊 Strategy: Elliott Wave + Price Action + Supply Zone ⚡ Timeframe: 2-Hour | Pair: EUR/USD 📈 Possible Target: 1.1649 🎯 Bias: Bearish Reversal from Seller’s Zone
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD Retest and Drop Bears Eye 1.14 ZoneEURUSD has broken down from its rising structure, with sellers now taking control after weeks of grinding price action. The failed retest of broken support turned resistance highlights that momentum has shifted, and the focus is shifting toward deeper downside targets. With the US dollar supported by sticky inflation risks and geopolitical tensions, the euro’s ability to recover looks limited in the near term. Current Bias Bearish – sellers are in control after the channel breakdown, with momentum favoring further downside. Key Fundamental Drivers US Dollar Strength: Sticky US services inflation and Fed hesitancy on aggressive cuts keep USD supported. Eurozone Weakness: German and broader Eurozone data show sluggish growth, keeping ECB cautious. Geopolitics: Tariff risks and global uncertainty favor the USD as a safe haven. Macro Context Interest Rate Expectations: Fed easing path is slowing, with sticky inflation potentially stalling rate cuts. ECB remains cautious with inflation still above target but growth faltering. Economic Growth Trends: US data still resilient compared to stagnating Eurozone activity. Commodity Flows: Higher energy costs remain a drag on the euro area’s trade balance. Geopolitics: Trade tariffs and political tensions in the US and EU support the dollar’s defensive bid. Primary Risk to the Trend A dovish Fed surprise or significantly stronger Eurozone inflation data could weaken USD and trigger a corrective euro rebound. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US CPI and Fed speakers will be critical for rate expectations. Eurozone PMIs and German inflation data will guide the ECB outlook. Leader/Lagger Dynamics EURUSD often acts as a leader for broader USD moves, setting tone across USD majors. However, it currently behaves more like a lagger to Fed policy and US inflation dynamics, following rather than driving. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.1540 (near-term support) 1.1410–1.1400 (major downside target) Resistance Levels: 1.1695 (broken support turned resistance) 1.1800 (upper rejection zone if retrace extends) Stop Loss (SL): 1.1799 Take Profit (TP): 1.1400 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints EURUSD bias is firmly bearish after breaking below its rising channel and rejecting resistance on the retest. With USD strength underpinned by sticky inflation risks and geopolitical tensions, sellers will likely remain in control unless the Fed pivots more dovishly. The key levels to watch are resistance at 1.1695 and 1.1800, with downside targets at 1.1540 and 1.1400. My trade plan favors short setups with SL around 1.1799 and TP at 1.1400, aligning technical breakdown with fundamentals. Unless Eurozone data surprises to the upside or the Fed softens tone, momentum stays with the bears.
Short
by ultreosforex
11
EUR/USD Technical Analysis – October 17, 2025The EUR/USD pair has recently completed a corrective leg and is showing early signs of bullish recovery. After forming a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows throughout the first half of the month, price action has now broken the minor descending structure with a sharp impulse to the upside. Currently, the pair is consolidating near the 1.1690 zone after a strong bullish wave. The previous swing high at 1.1705–1.1720 acts as short-term resistance, while the support base sits near 1.1630–1.1650, aligning with the recent breakout area and the lower boundary of the bullish channel. If buyers defend this zone successfully, the next bullish target lies around the 1.1770–1.1800 area, which corresponds with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous downtrend. However, a daily close below 1.1630 would invalidate the bullish setup and could trigger a deeper retracement toward 1.1570. Trading Strategy: Buy Zone: 1.1640–1.1660 (on bullish confirmation) Target: 1.1770–1.1800 Stop Loss: Below 1.1600 Overall, EUR/USD is attempting to shift momentum after weeks of downside pressure. Keep a close watch on how the market reacts around the 1.1650 level for clues about the next directional move. Follow for more daily strategies and structured market analysis updates.
by Henrybillion
EURUSD Bullish breakout retest supported at 1.1650The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a resistance breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1650 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1650 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1760 – initial resistance 1.1780 – psychological and structural level 1.1820 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1650 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1630 – minor support 1.1590 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1650. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - trading may remain cautious ahead of the weekendMarkets will be looking to end the week on a steady footing, with a busy data slate focused on the US and several central bank appearances. In the US, attention will turn to the September industrial production, building permits, housing starts, import/export price indices, and capacity utilisation, all of which will give further clues on the strength of the economy heading into Q4. The August TIC flows report will also shed light on foreign demand for US assets, while housing data could influence expectations for the Fed’s policy path. Central bank speakers are in focus across regions — the Fed’s Musalem, ECB’s Nagel and Rehn, BoJ’s Uchida, and BoE’s Pill, Greene, and Breeden are all scheduled, offering potential insights into policy divergence among major central banks. On the corporate side, American Express and Volvo headline earnings, providing key reads on consumer spending and global industrial demand respectively. Overall, trading may remain cautious ahead of the weekend, with investors weighing economic resilience against the potential for slower global growth and ongoing central bank rhetoric. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
EURUSD Is Very Bearish! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.169. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.146 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD DON'T RULE OUT SELL YETOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Short
by Derry_Trades
3
EURUSD — Buy to Mega Resistance, Then Sell Big (Part 2)💥🎯 On our way to the 'Legacy Level'....but for now Long again EURUSD — Buy to Mega Resistance, Then Sell Big (Part 2) 📈📉 If you were here in December 2020, you remember the post: “Buy to 1.232 — then SELL BIG.” That trade didn’t just play out — it defined the macro cycle of the next 2 years. Well... guess what? We're back. Different year, same setup. Only this time, the purple line at 1.1915 is our first battle. 🟣 The Mega Resistance Returns That purple level — 1.19153 — hasn’t changed. It was the graveyard for EURUSD bulls before, and it’s the first major stop before the sell trigger activates again. 🧭 Chart Summary: • ✅ Buy continuation toward 1.1915 • 🚫 If rejection holds → SELL BIG again • 🏁 Target zone below: 1.145–1.142 = structural retest This is Part 2 of the same movie — and we already know how Act 1 ended. 🔍 Structure Breakdown • 🔹 1.19153 = Mega Resistance** (multi-year defining level) • 🔹 1.232 = Legacy high** from 2021 (final macro wall) • 🔹 1.142–1.145 = Buy zone / target after rejection** We're not here to wish. We're here to trade what works — and this setup has already proven its worth. 🔄 Strategy Logic • Dollar weakness (as forecasted in "Normalized Dollar" posts) = EUR short-term support • But structurally, EURUSD still trapped below macro resistance • Long until proven otherwise — then flip and ride it down hard** This isn’t trend-chasing. This is level execution. 🔁 Trading Wisdom 🔁 Great trades don’t expire — they just reload. When a level this big reappears, you don’t ignore it. You stalk it… then strike. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Dollar can be in trouble, EURO will be in even more!!!
by FX_Professor
1
Potential 300Pips Short on EURUSDFrom a 4-hour structural perspective, I’m anticipating a potential bearish shift in market structure once price decisively breaks and closes below the 1.1643 level. Such a move would confirm a structural transition to the downside, signaling a change in directional bias. Following this confirmation, I’ll be watching for a retracement into the newly formed supply zone — ideally a region aligning with previous inefficiencies or order blocks. From this area, the expectation is for sellers to regain control, presenting an opportunity to short the market. The downside targets are projected between 1.1470 and 1.1395, where liquidity and higher-timeframe demand are likely to reside. Overall, this outlook remains valid as long as price structure respects the lower-high formation post-break, with the setup expected to unfold between 17th and 28th October 2025. Wait for the Plan, Execute once confirmed Patience is the Way! Ieios
Short
by Ieios
5