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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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WEEKLY OUT LOOK OF EUR/USD 22 09 2025 TO 26 09 2025EUR/USD Trade Plan – Week of Sep 23, 2025 1. Market Bias Higher Timeframe (Weekly/Daily): Bearish Short-Term (H4/H1): Possible countertrend bounce into supply Primary Strategy: Sell-the-rally into premium FVG 2. Key Levels Short-Term Buy Zones (Demand): 1.1715 – 1.1725 (LTF liquidity sweep area) 1.1690 – 1.1700 (unmitigated OB, intraday demand) Primary Sell Zone (Supply): 1.1790 – 1.1820 (Premium FVG + last bullish candle before drop) Target Liquidity (Final DOL): 1.1661 (weekly liquidity pool) 3. Trade Scenarios 🔹 Scenario A – Countertrend Buy Entry: 1.1715 – 1.1700 Stop Loss: Below 1.1680 Target: 1.1790 – 1.1820 (premium FVG supply) Note: Scalp only, against HTF trend – requires LTF bullish BOS. 🔹 Scenario B – Primary Sell Setup Entry: 1.1790 – 1.1820 (on bearish LTF confirmation) Stop Loss: Above 1.1845 Target 1: 1.1720 Target 2: 1.1661 (weekly DOL) Note: Aligns with institutional order flow & macro bearish bias. 4. Execution Rules Wait for LTF confirmation (5m–15m BOS + FVG entry) before pulling trigger. Avoid blind limit orders. Reduce risk size on countertrend longs. Scale into shorts only once bearish confirmation is clear at premium levels. ✅ Summary for Clients / Traders: Short-term bounce possible from 1.1715–1.1700, but main opportunity is to sell the rally at 1.1790–1.1820. Final target remains 1.1661, where major liquidity resides. Patience is key: let price retrace into supply before building core short positions.
Short
by Bilalxau
EURUSD Will Rise After BreakoutHello Traders In This Chart EURUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EURUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
EURUSD: Ending Diagonal Can Cause Limited Gains At 1.19-1.12EURUSD is on the rise and finally moved to new highs of 2025, but keep in mind that despite this push higher, prices are in wave "c" of wave five, the final leg of an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are usually strong but also reversal patterns, meaning upside could be limited in the near future. Ideally, we may even see a deeper retracement in the rest of the year, especially as the rise from the January lows could be coming to an end. Divergence on the RSI also suggests bulls are getting tired up here. 1.19-1.12 is strong resistance area. GH
by ew-forecast
EURUSD – Bearish Setup Building Below ResistanceEURUSD is showing signs of exhaustion after its recent push higher. Price has broken out of multiple consolidation phases but failed to sustain momentum above resistance, hinting that the bulls are losing steam. With fundamental pressures still weighing on the euro and dollar resilience holding, this pair is setting up for a potential continuation lower toward key support zones. Current Bias Bearish – Momentum is fading, and EURUSD looks vulnerable to a downside extension if support breaks. Key Fundamental Drivers ECB: Lagarde has signaled inflation is near target, leaving the door open for eventual easing if growth weakens further. Fed: Despite softer U.S. data (Beige Book reporting little/no growth), inflation risks and tariffs keep the Fed cautious, but rate cuts are still priced ahead. Tariffs/Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff agenda continues to pressure global risk sentiment, indirectly supporting the dollar in risk-off conditions. Macro Context Interest Rate Expectations: The market expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in the coming months, but at a slower pace than earlier anticipated. The ECB, meanwhile, is signaling comfort with softer inflation, keeping EUR capped. Growth Trends: Eurozone growth remains sluggish, weighed down by weak German data. U.S. growth is stagnating but still outpacing Europe. Commodity Flows: Lower oil prices weigh more heavily on the euro area’s terms of trade than the U.S., limiting EUR upside. Geopolitical Themes: Tariff escalation, Middle East tensions, and Ukraine risks keep safe-haven flows tilted toward USD. Primary Risk to the Trend A faster Fed easing cycle or stronger Eurozone data could flip sentiment and spark a EURUSD rebound. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Eurozone PMI and German CPI for growth and inflation signals. U.S. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Leader/Lagger Dynamics EURUSD is a leader among USD majors, often setting the tone for broad dollar direction. Movements here influence EUR-crosses (EURGBP, EURJPY) and follow USD risk drivers like Treasury yields and Fed expectations. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.1692, 1.1588 Resistance Levels: 1.1795, 1.1901 Stop Loss (SL): 1.1795 (above recent resistance) Take Profit (TP): 1.1588 (first target), extension toward 1.1500 if momentum accelerates Summary: Bias and Watchpoints EURUSD currently carries a bearish bias, with sellers defending resistance near 1.1795 and downside targets pointing toward 1.1692 and 1.1588. A stop loss above 1.1795 protects against unexpected upside breakouts, while profit targets favor a continuation lower in line with weakening Eurozone fundamentals and sticky USD demand. The key watchpoints are Eurozone PMI, German CPI, and U.S. Core PCE. As the flagship USD pair, EURUSD will remain a leader in shaping global FX flows, so keeping an eye on its reactions to data will be crucial in confirming this bearish continuation setup.
Short
by ultreosforex
EURUSD Consolidates Ahead of Fed Rate Decision – Key Pivot 1.188EURUSD – Overview EURUSD has already tested the resistance zone highlighted in yesterday’s analysis and is now consolidating between 1.1882 and 1.1780 ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision. The Fed announcement and Powell’s guidance are expected to drive the next breakout from this range. Technical Outlook 📈 Bullish scenario The pair maintains a bullish bias while trading above 1.1780. A confirmed break above 1.1883 would strengthen momentum toward 1.1940 → 1.2060. 📉 Bearish scenario A decisive move below 1.1780 would shift bias bearish. Downside targets: 1.1751 → 1.1684. Key Levels Pivot: 1.1882 Resistance: 1.1940 – 1.2060 Support: 1.1780 – 1.1751 – 1.1684 📌 Market Context: The Fed’s decision will dictate the breakout direction. Dovish Fed / larger cut → EURUSD likely to break higher toward 1.1940+. Hawkish Powell → bearish breakout below 1.1780 toward 1.1684.
Long
by SroshMayi
EURUSD Intraday Trade Idea. (M15)I am long in EURUSD from the first support 1.18384, 🛑 Stoploss: below support at 1.18283 🎯 Target: towards resistance 1.18730 Reason: Price is respecting the support zone and overall trend is bullish, so I am going with the trend. If you like this idea, don’t forget to hit the 👍 Like button and share your thoughts in comments. Regards: Forex Insights Pro. #EURUSD #Forex #Trading #PriceAction #DayTrading #ForexSignals #EUR #ForexCommunity
Long
by Forex_Insights_Pro
Euro Dollar Bullish Outlook📊 Technical Structure EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1840 after pulling back from fresh four-year highs near 1.1879. The chart highlights a bullish continuation setup, with price currently testing the mid-range and eyeing a potential rebound from the support zone 1.1805 – 1.1790. A sustained break above 1.1874 resistance could open the path toward 1.1880+. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: 1.1805 – 1.1795 (near support zone) Stop Loss: 1.1790 (below support) Take Profit: 1.1875 / 1.1880 (resistance zone) Risk/Reward: ~1 : 4.96 🗝️ Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 1.1875 – 1.1880 Support Zone: 1.1805 – 1.1795 Major Resistance Above: 1.1900 psychological barrier 🌐 Macro Background The euro remains strong despite softer-than-expected Eurozone inflation, as traders focus on the Fed’s policy pivot. Markets widely expect a 25 bps Fed cut later today, with the possibility of one or two additional cuts before year-end. While weaker US labour data reinforces dovish Fed expectations, the risk remains that Powell could strike a less dovish tone, which might trigger short-term USD strength. In Europe, the ZEW sentiment rebound and steady industrial output offer modest support for the euro. 📌 Trade Summary EUR/USD shows a bullish bias as long as it holds above 1.1800, with upside targets at 1.1875–1.1880. Watch for volatility during the Fed decision and Powell’s press conference, as a less dovish outcome could spark a pullback before any continuation higher. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
Euro Breaks Trend Line Before the FedThe euro has been quiet despite lots of noise around the Federal Reserve. But now some traders may think it’s ready to move. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs between early July and late August. EURUSD has pushed above that trend line this month, which might suggest a breakout is underway. Second, the currency has tracked its rising 50-day simple moving average. That may confirm an intermediate-term uptrend. Third, Bollinger Band Width recently dipped to the lowest level since December 2021. Could that period of price compression give way to price expansion? Next, precious metals and mining stocks have outperformed in the last month. That may indicate sentiment is already turning away from the U.S. dollar. Finally, Wednesday’s Fed meeting is a likely catalyst. Jerome Powell is expected to begin a series of interest-rate cuts. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank indicated last week it may be finished easing. That difference in monetary policy could also push the euro and greenback in opposite directions. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
by TradeStation
EURUSD – Short Setup Update - Q3 | W38 | D15 | Y25|EURUSD – Short Setup Update 📉 1H rejection spotted from our POI. Waiting for imbalance fill from the previous 1H candle close. At the moment, only a 1-minute BOS has formed → still fairly bullish into the area. ⚠️ This means trade management must be aggressive — rejection here could just be a higher low before a push to new highs, which could take us out. Stay sharp. ✅ A 5-minute BOS would give much stronger confirmation. The POI remains valid — now it’s a case of waiting to see how price action develops. 📅 Q3 | W38 | D15 | Y25| 📊 EURUSD Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
EUR/USD breakout buy alert EUR/USD Buy Opportunity Current Price: 1.17500 📈 Buy Entry Active — Targeting higher levels ✨ Euro showing bullish momentum against USD. ✨ Buyers are holding strong support at 1.17500. ✨ Upside pressure is building for a breakout. ✨ Trend indicates further gains ahead toward key resistance. ✨ Market sentiment favors the Euro as strength continues. ⚡ Stay with the buyers — momentum is on your side! --- Do you want me to add specific target levels (like TP1, TP2, SL) to make it look more like a professional signal?
Long
by SadarExplore
27
Perfect Setup AnatomyPERFECT SETUP ANATOMY: Sept 17, 2025 OBVIOUS LIQUIDITY SWEEP(SSL) AREA, OF COURSE PRICE WILL TAKE IT OUT LOL. i THOUGHT ABOUT PUTTING AN ENTRY HERE JUST IN CASE MY INITIAL FVA RESPECT ENTRY WAS TAKEN OUT, BUT I WAS OFF THE PC BY THAT TIME SO I DIDN'T. WELL, THERE WAS A BULLISH DIV + SWEEP + FVA RESPECT AT THIS POINT, SO I DID WHAT ANY SANE PERSON WOULD DO, RE-ENTER. Price moved as follows: 1.) TRENDLINE LIQUIDITY GATHERING 2.) ACCUMULATION BEFORE TRENDLINE BREAKOUT. This is where sweep+div+cisd+fvg+fva happened. "PDA accumulation" 3.) FVA RESPECT/RE-TEST 4.) PRICE HITS ORIGINAL DAY EQH TARGET 5.) I SHOULD HAVE PUT THIS ON 1:3RR, BUT I'M GOING TO TRY 1:1RR FIRST (TO INCREASE WINRATE = INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATEGY), WITH A TRAILING STOP THAT STARTS AT 1.5RR USING MT5. LOGIC IS, SO IT FULL TPs AT 1RR MINIMUM, AND RIDE THE TREND IF THE PRICE RUNS FARTHER. - so, here's what's required again for a trade to start being considered: 0. HTF Target (EQH/EQL) + HTF OF Alignment 1. Previous Orderflow Liquidity Sweep 2. Accumulation of BUY/SELL Arguments (Trendline Liquidity & FVA = recent sweep+div+CISD+FVG) / PDA ACCUMULATION 3. Respect of FVA 4. Entry Bias - uptrend, day eqh Narrative - sting into htf fvg = ltf ssl Context - ssl to eqh Entry - fva respect & retest
Long
by reventioaxie
EURUSD Daily Forecast -Q3 | W38 | D19 | Y25|📅 Q3 | W38 | D19 | Y25| 📊 EURUSD Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 FX:EURUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
VWAP Analysis on EURUSD: Anticipating Retracement + Bullish BoS📈 EURUSD has been in a strong bullish trend, showing significant upside expansion. In my view, price is now looking overextended. 📊 When applying the VWAP to the chart, we can see that price is currently trading two deviations above VWAP — a clear sign of stretched conditions. Historically, around midweek, we’ve seen aggressive retracements from similar levels. 🔎 I’m anticipating a potential pullback into my optimal entry zone 🎯. Should this occur, I’ll be closely watching for a bullish break of market structure (BoS) to align with a continuation entry. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly.
Long
by fxtraderanthony