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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Trading is the Game of ProbabilitiesMost traders start with one simple goal ➜ to be right all the time 🔲Right about the trend. 🔲Right about the breakout. 🔲Right about the trade. But here’s the truth - 'the market doesn’t care who’s right'. ↳ Even the best analysis fails sometimes. ↳ Even the weakest setup works sometimes. Because trading isn’t a test of accuracy, it’s a test of managing what is more probable. ↳ Profitable traders don’t chase perfection. ↳ They focus on risk, reward, and consistency. We can be wrong 6 times out of 10... And still make money if our winners are bigger than our losers. ↳ Trading success is not about predicting. ↳ It’s about positioning and managing our trade. We manage risk when the odds are low. We maximize reward when the odds are high. The shift happens when we stop trying to be right... and start thinking in probabilities. That’s when we stop gambling and start profitable trading. Are you playing casino or managing your risk?
Education
by Bravetotrade
EUR/USD 4-hour timeframe...EUR/USD 4-hour timeframe — I can see that my drawn Ichimoku Clouds and have marked two “Target Points” on the chart. From the image: Current price: around 1.1664 First target (lower one): approximately 1.1740 – 1.1750 Second target (upper one): approximately 1.1835 – 1.1850 So my potential targets would be: 🎯 Target 1: 1.1740 – 1.1750 🎯 Target 2: 1.1835 – 1.1850 It looks like my analysis is expecting a bullish breakout above the Ichimoku cloud and prior resistance, aiming for those next resistance levels.
by RSI_Trading_point
2
EURUSD – Breakout Trade Setup (30m)After days of compression and lower highs, EURUSD has broken out with strong bullish momentum. The structure shift confirms early buyers stepping in, aiming for higher retracement levels. 🟢 Entry: 1.15455 🔴 Stop Loss: 1.15345 🎯 Targets: TP1 → 1.1567 (RR 2.0) TP2 → 1.1577 (RR 3.0) 📈 Bias: Bullish continuation toward the next resistance zone. Momentum candles are expanding cleanly, and RSI supports the move with fresh strength buildup. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
Long
by ClearTradingMind
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the swing high resistance. Pivot: 1.1668 1st Support: 1.1618 1st Resistance: 1.1710 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by IC Markets
EUR/USD Analysis for NY Session - SHORTEUR/USD Analysis for NY Session 💶💶 🐻 We are anticipating a price move towards our primary Point of Interest (POI), specifically the unfilled H1 BISI imbalance. From this level, we expect the price to move in the direction of the buy-side, targeting the buy stops within the H1 SIBI resistance zone. Once these buy-side orders are cleared, we anticipate a subsequent move towards the sell-side. There is significant liquidity in this area, as it coincides with several key levels: the Asia Low, London Low, the Previous Day's Low (PDL), and an unfilled H4 BISI imbalance. Additionally, this liquidity pool aligns closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that we may see a retracement from this zone.
Short
by TheProfitRoomFx
EURUSD – Bullish Bias After Daily BPR & SMT ConfirmationHello traders, On the 2-hour timeframe, EURUSD has reached the Daily Balanced Price Range (BPR) and reacted bullishly. We also have a clear SMT divergence with GBPUSD at the lows, providing strong confluence for a bullish outlook on EURUSD. At the moment, price is trading inside a 2H supply zone (1.15116 – 1.15338). If the market can break above this supply zone and show acceptance, we can anticipate continuation toward higher levels. 📌 Upside Targets: • 1.15415 • 1.15687 • 1.15800 I will stay bullish as long as the draw on liquidity remains to the upside. 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌 🔎 DYOR 💡Wait for the update!
Long
by VahidTradingCR
1
EURUSD : Correction Within a Broader UptrendThe current structure for EUR/USD is a long-term bullish trend against a short-term bearish trend. While the broader bullish trend established in early 2025 remains intact, the price is currently within a corrective phase, a clear short-term downtrend. The key long-term support levels could be the determinant of whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a more significant trend reversal. Trend Analysis Long-Term Trend (Bullish): The foundational uptrend is still in effect, primarily because the price maintain a pattern of higher lows, with the 1.1400 level acting as a critical pivot point. Also the price remains above 200-day SMA. As long as the price holds above this support area, the long-term bullish trend remains unbroken. Medium & Short-Term Trend (Bearish): in the shooter run momentum has clearly shifted to sellers. The price has broken below the 50-day SMA and is trading within a descending channel. This channel is marked by a series of lower highs (1.1778, 1.1728, 1.1668) and lower lows. Key Price Levels to Monitor - Primary Support Zone: The most critical support area is the confluence of the 200-day SMA and the long term swing low at 1.1400. A break below this zone would threaten the long-term bullish structure and could signal a major trend shift. - Primary Resistance Zone: 1. Initial resistance is between 1.1545 and 1.1575(shaded in light red). This area previously acted as support and is now a possible resistance. Also its reinforced by the falling trend line for the short term descending channel. 2. Stronger resistance is found at the 50-day SMA and 1.1669 short term lower high. Because a breakout above this area would invalidate the short term bearish structure low lowers highs. Potential Scenarios Bearish Continuation: Given the current downward momentum, the most likely near-term scenario is further downside - to test the main swing low for the long term trend at 1.14000 then around the 200-day SMA . The market's reaction here will be crucial. A failure to hold this level would open the door for a deeper correction, potentially towards 1.1270, 1.1150 then 1.1070 Bullish Reversal: The price must first find solid support at the 200-day SMA. Following that, a breakout above the descending channel and a sustained move back above the 1.1545-1.1575 resistance zone would provide the first confirmation of a potential resumption of the long-term uptrend towards 1.1980 Bottomline While the immediate path of least resistance appears to be to the downside, this is happening within the context of a larger, intact uptrend. The current price action is best viewed as a significant correction. The behavior of the price at the critical 1.1400 and 200 SMA support zone will be the key determinant for the next major directional move. Shorting: I consider shorting while the price remains below the 1.1545-1.1575 resistance zone, looking for short signals on lower timeframes, and targeting the primary support area around 1.1400. Longing: I will be looking to long opportunities on a bullish reversal signs on lower timeframes from the 1.1400 support zone. looking forward for your comments. Good luck.
by Trading_Stream
EURUSD 4H Analysis: Inverse SMT Divergence Signals Potential Low💶 EURUSD 4H Analysis: Inverse SMT Divergence Signals Potential Low 🕵️‍♂️ The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows a strong bearish trend, but the recent price action suggests an immediate turning point driven by institutional flow. Current Price: Interacting around 1.14843. Structure: Price has made a Lower Low (LL), sweeping the liquidity below the previous short-term low (CRTL near 1.14772). This move has also entered a key Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. Target High (CRTH): The internal liquidity high is marked at 1.15099. This is our primary target for the retracement. SMT Divergence Alert (EURUSD vs. DXY) We are looking for a Bullish Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergence confirming the low sweep: EURUSD: Made a new Lower Low (LL) (liquidity sweep). DXY (US Dollar Index): Should have failed to make a Higher High (HH), or perhaps even made a Lower High (LH). This inverse SMT divergence suggests the U.S. Dollar's strength is temporarily exhausted, and the latest drop in EURUSD was a liquidity grab before the institutional move up. Trade Confirmation & Scenario: Bullish Reversal: Look for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) on a lower timeframe (e.g., 1H/15M) following the SMT. A sustained break back above the swing high of the current consolidation would confirm the reversal, targeting the CRTH at 1.15099. Bearish Continuation: If DXY manages to make a clean Higher High (negating the SMT) and EURUSD breaks clean below the 1.14772 CRTL, the long-term bearish trend is confirmed to continue to lower targets. Greetings, MrYounity
Long
by MrYounity
EURUSD: The Market Is Looking Up! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.14821 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.14866.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Long
by FreeXauusdSignals
EURUSD: Liquidity Taken… Now Eyeing the Breaker Block ZoneEURUSD Analysis – Friday, November 7 Welcome traders! 👋 I’m glad to have you here — we’re all learning and growing together in this amazing trading journey. Let’s dive into today’s analysis on EURUSD 👇 As seen in the previous analysis, EURUSD followed the expected path — collecting trendline liquidity and continuing its corrective bearish move. Currently, in both the weekly and daily timeframes, the structure remains bearish. However, on the 4H timeframe, the pair has formed a Break of Structure (BOS), suggesting a potential retracement toward the weekly POI and upper liquidity zones. For the upcoming trading day, here’s the scenario I’m watching: Price is moving toward the POI aligned with a Breaker Block, and as it sweeps Asian session lows, we can look for a Three-Candle Confirmation setup. If confirmed, price may push higher to target yesterday’s high, which also aligns with Asian session liquidity. ⚠️ Always remember: The market is never 100% certain — make sure to apply risk management, trade with confirmation, and stay aware of upcoming news events. 📘 Educational Note: This analysis is for educational and illustrative purposes only. Always follow your own plan, confirm with your strategy, and manage risk carefully. Success in trading comes from discipline, patience, and consistency. 💪 🚀 Empowering traders through clarity, confidence & clean charts. Follow 👉 parisa_tl for more SMC setups and weekly insights 💙 #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #Liquidity #PriceAction #OrderBlock #BreakerBlock #MarketStructure #POI #FXTrader #TradingView #ForexCommunity #ForexSetups #RiskManagement #FXEducation #parisa_tl
by parisa_tl
EUR/USD Double Bottom Formation Could Trigger Short-Term ReboundThe EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate near the 1.1500 support zone after a prolonged downtrend. Price action on the 1-hour timeframe shows a developing double-bottom structure, suggesting a potential short-term bullish correction before any continuation lower. Technical overview: Immediate resistance: 1.1540 – 1.1560 Mid-term resistance: 1.1580 – 1.1640 – 1.1680 Key support: 1.1500 – 1.1470 At the moment, buyers are attempting to defend the 1.1500 area, which aligns with previous demand zones. A successful retest and higher low formation could drive the price back toward 1.1540, where the next major supply zone awaits. However, the overall market context remains bearish — lower highs continue to dominate, and the EMA cluster still slopes downward. Traders should treat any upward movement as a corrective rally within a larger downtrend. Trading plan: Scenario 1 (Buy retracement): Wait for a retest of 1.1500, confirm bullish reaction → target 1.1540–1.1560. Scenario 2 (Sell the rally): If the price reaches 1.1540–1.1560 and shows bearish rejection, look for short entries targeting 1.1500–1.1470. This setup offers a balanced approach to play both sides of the short-term range while respecting the dominant downtrend structure. 📉 Save this idea and follow for more daily technical setups based on liquidity, structure, and market psychology.
by Henrybillion
3 Cases for EURUSD EURUSD continues to fall. I see three possible scenarios for what it might do next. The first case is that a wedge forms near the current level. The second case is another leg down to test 1.15. The third case is the formation of a trend channel, using the parallel of the downward yellow trendline, which would imply a decline toward 1.14. I do not have a strong opinion on which scenario will play out, so I will play the statistics game and enter a long position here with a favorable risk–reward ratio but a modest take-profit target. I will keep my stop loss above 1.15, enter the trade with half position size, and then see waht the market will do.
by orancapital
Old Wounds, New Trades - Echoes of the Past... “I don’t know what’s wrong with me. Every time I take a loss, even a small one, I freeze. It’s like a switch flips and I feel off, I just can’t explain why” If you’ve ever felt that sudden wave of tension, self-doubt, or urgency that doesn’t quite fit the size of the trade… You’re not alone. Follow along. I hope this helps. BUT FIRST NOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It’s not a trade idea or system designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure so you can trade your own system with calm and confidence. HERE’S WHAT HAPPENS You’re trading normally. Nothing dramatic. Then price moves against you. The heart rate spikes, breathing shortens, the body tenses. You hesitate or you overreact. Logically, it makes no sense. It’s just one trade. But the emotion feels bigger than the moment. That’s because it’s not just the market you’re responding to. It’s memory. WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON UNDERNEATH Your nervous system stores emotional imprints, moments of uncertainty, criticism, fear, failure. They don’t disappear; they get filed under “avoid this feeling.” When something in the present, like a losing trade hits a similar emotional frequency, the old file reopens. And you find yourself reacting. Not just to the market in the here and now but to an echo from the past. That echo might sound like: 🔹 “I can’t mess this up again.” 🔹 “I should’ve known better.” 🔹 “What if this proves I’m not cut out for it?” It’s not the trade that’s hurting. It’s the part of you that once felt unsafe, unseen, or not enough. HOW TO CATCH IT BEFORE IT RUNS YOU 1️⃣ Notice the size of your reaction. If it feels disproportionate, too intense for what just happened, that’s your cue. 2️⃣ Name the echo. Say quietly: “This is an old memory, not a new threat.” It separates the past from the present. 3️⃣ Ground your body. Unclench the jaw. Drop the shoulders. Breathe out longer than you breathe in. Remind your nervous system that this moment is safe. 4️⃣ Reframe the signal. The intensity isn’t weakness, it’s information. Your system is showing you where an old wound still seeks resolution. Trading doesn’t just reveal your skill. It reveals your history. And every emotional flashback you meet with awareness, is one less echo shaping your next trade.
Education
by soda8888