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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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Nov 282023

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen Bulls Charge Ahead as Retreating Dollar Slips Through ¥148

Signs of dollar weakness have propelled the yen to higher grounds in a rare moment of reprieve for the Asian currency’s proponents.

  • The USD/JPY pair tumbled under the ¥148.00 handle for a brief moment early on Tuesday. Money managers (and forex bros) were riding the recent drop from levels just under ¥152.00 as the dollar cracked again. Behind the move down was a weakening greenback, pressured by investor conviction that interest rates won’t go higher soon.
  • The dollar’s bearishness was spotted across the forex board with other rivals picking up gains. The EUR/USD pair climbed to $1.0960, just a few pips under its August peak. And the GBP/USD was confidently marching higher, topping all three major averages – the 50-day, the 100-day, and the 200-day MA.
  • Back to the Japanese yen – with the recent USD/JPY drop, Japan’s officials may not rush into the forex market in bids to prop up their currency. With the targeted intervention zone pinned at ¥150.00, it’s safe to say that as long as the pair keeps reducing it’s exchange rate, yen bulls will be content.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 232023

USD/JPY: Dollar Shifts Gears Again in Bid to Retake ¥150 amid Quiet Thanksgiving Trade

Currency speculators have many reasons to be thankful but dollar bulls are among the most thankful this year.

  • The USD/JPY pair moved sharply higher Wednesday as market participants flocked to the buck once again. The dollar soared 1.2% on the day, adding to a previous-day gain of another 1% right after the pair dropped to a six-week low near the ¥147.00 threshold.
  • With yesterday’s move, the exchange rate is back at the 50-day moving average just two days after it dipped below it. On the economic calendar for the rest of the week is absolutely nothing that can spark excitement over striking new FX deals. Here’s what we’ve got today.
  • On Japan’s side, the Asian nation is celebrating Labor Day today. In the US, Thanksgiving has settled in and traders shall proudly name the trades they’re thankful for. Yen bulls will most likely stay mum, while dollar bulls have at least 15 reasons to be grateful for: USD/JPY is higher by 15% on the year.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 202023

USD/JPY: Dollar Slips to 50-Day MA Under ¥149 Ahead of Holiday-Shortened Week

In the absence of major market-moving news, the market moved as the dollar sold off across the board. What happened?

  • The USD/JPY pair floated sideways in early Monday deals after it skittered down to the 50-day moving average on Friday. For no apparent reason, and in a quiet news environment, the dollar couldn’t hold its grip and fell over 1.5% against the Japanese yen. The pair slipped from ¥150.70 to ¥148.20.
  • Apparently with the yen being this year’s biggest loser on the forex board, the 100-day and the 200-day moving averages are next in line if the pair’s drop continues. Pulling up the daily chart indicates the 100-day moving average is flexing at ¥146.50. The big bad 200-day line lurks from levels near ¥141.00.
  • The dollar’s weakening was observed in other forex corners. The EUR/USD advanced around 1% to cross $1.09. And the GBP/USD added a modest 0.4% to climb to $1.2460. Looking ahead, it’s Thanksgiving week and forex bros can come down at the table and schmooze about their next big trade but not their trading history.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 142023

USD/JPY: Dollar Races to ¥151.90 in Sixth Straight Day of Wins, US Inflation Data Imminent

Overflowing bidding is inflicting pain over at the bears’ camp and to Japan’s government, which is keeping tight-lipped on a potential intervention.

  • The USD/JPY tower of higher bids hit ¥151.90 to kickstart a so-far painful week for bears. The pair booked its sixth straight day of gains as renewed dollar pressure restored the greenback’s dominant position across forex dealmaking. Early on Tuesday, the exchange rate hovered near ¥151.70.
  • Yesterday’s sprint lifted the USD/JPY to a one-year peak, and less than a mere 5 pips away from a fresh record high unseen since June 1990. Millennials, yes, that is over 33 years ago. In that context, the lofty levels treaded by the mighty dollar, and – vice versa – the dreaded lows traversed by the languishing yen, are yet to be called out by Japan’s government.
  • While markets try to time a potential intervention by Japanese officials, the US is gearing up to reveal a batch of economic data. Scheduled for release today, the US Consumer Price Index report, or inflation data, is expected to show prices increased by a moderate 3.3% for the twelve months through October, less than the 3.7% logged a month prior.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 102023

USD/JPY: Dollar Eyes ¥152 as Bulls Stage Comeback, on Pace for Fifth Straight Day of Gains

The Bank of Japan issued a warning on reversing its yearslong ultra-loose monetary policy. And it sent bulls charging.

  • The USD/JPY pair moved to the upside early Friday after the Bank of Japan reiterated its stance to maintain its current ultra-loose monetary policy and restrictive yield-curve control. Said simply, Japan’s central bank is likely to continue handing cash at a negative 0.1% interest rate to allow for the growth of its economy.
  • More on that, Bank of Japan chief Kazuo Ueda addressed the topic at the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference yesterday. In it, he said it was still “too early” to predict the trajectory of policy changes. Further, catching up with other global central banks by raising interest rates will be “a serious challenge.”
  • Dollar bulls reacted to the latest updates by charging higher and lifting the USD/JPY pair to a weekly high of ¥151.45. The exchange rate is on track to close a fifth consecutive day of gains and is just 40 pips shy of its recent one-year high of ¥151.70. Previously, Japan officials have stated that anywhere above ¥150 per dollar is a potential call for intervention.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 062023

USD/JPY: Dollar Rally Cools as Yen Gains for Third Day in a Row to Slide Under ¥150.00

Last week’s slight monetary policy tweak from the Bank of Japan could be the start of the bank’s catch-up play in the grand scheme of interest rates.

  • The USD/JPY pair slid for a third consecutive day on Friday after both sides unequivocally suggested down was the only way. From Japan, the central bank made a tiny move toward its first interest-rate hike since 2007. It loosened the upper bound of the 10-year bond yield cap from 1% as a hard limit to 1% as a reference.
  • Stateside, October’s nonfarm payrolls showed a big gap in employment. Employers added 150,000 new hires to the labor force in the past month, less than half of September’s 336,000 jobs filled. The stark difference knocked the US dollar as investors speculated the Federal Reserve would happily skip rate hikes in the upcoming months.
  • In that context, not much upside power was left in the USD/JPY. The dollar retreated to ¥149.30 on Friday and floated pretty much unchanged in early Monday deals. With the Bank of Japan starting to catch up on the interest rate front, where it has maintained a negative trajectory since 2016, dollar bulls might be a lot more cautious placing long bets on the pair.
Roméo A. / Unsplash
Nov 012023

USD/JPY: Dollar Rally Hits ¥151.80 After Yen Sheds 1.9% on No Definite BoJ Policy Tweak

The USD/JPY soared to a one-year high moments before Japan officials vowed to fight the sharp devaluation of the yen.

  • The USD/JPY pair gained nearly 2% to notch a one-year high at ¥151.80 on Tuesday. The catalyst was a disappointing move by the Bank of Japan that failed to bolster traders’ confidence. The BoJ hinted at ending its decadelong monetary policy stimulus. And the yen cratered.
  • Japan’s central bankers concluded their two-day policy get-together saying they are looking into tweaking the bank’s bond yield control. The step could lead to the ending of a seven-year policy of capping long-term interest rates. The 10-year bond yield was kept around 0%, and officials defined 1.0% as a floating “upper bound,” not a hard limit.
  • The heavy beating taken by the yen prompted Japanese officials to stand up for it, but just vocally. Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said early on Wednesday authorities were prepared to act against “one-sided, sharp” swings in the yen. Now that the pair is way beyond the crucial ¥150.00 level, intervention could very well be a top priority.
Jun rong loo / Unsplash
Oct 262023

USD/JPY: Dollar Blasts Through ¥150, Intensifying Odds of Japan Buying-Spree Intervention

The Japanese yen is the world’s worst performing currency this year, having erased more than 13% of its valuation.

  • The USD/JPY pair sprinted to the upside Thursday, after another leg up from the dollar. The exchange rate crossed the alarming ¥150.00 threshold, pushing to a one-year high of ¥150.80. The peak was roughly 100 pips away from the pair’s multi-year high of ¥151.94 hit last October.
  • The continued weakness in the yen this year positions the Japanese currency as the biggest loser on the forex board for 2023. Among all the world’s currencies, the yen is staring at a 13% devaluation, worse even than the Turkish lira’s 10% pullback or the Norwegian krone’s 9% retreat.
  • With that said, the constant battering is likely frustrating Japanese officials who have been monitoring the yen for a while. They have previously stated that an intervention to prop up the yen’s value could come at any moment, especially after the highly-sensitive ¥150.00 line has been crossed.
engin akyurt / Unsplash
Oct 232023

USD/JPY: Dollar Pressure Remains as Weaker Yen Tumbles Toward ¥150.00 Mark

The USD/JPY is in a cliffhanger moment, dangerously floating around the intervention mark. What’s next? Not much that markets are aware of.

  • The USD/JPY pair extended its consolidation early Monday, drawing closer to the key ¥150.00 level. The threshold has shaped a crunch time for markets as Japan officials have previously signaled that they may intervene with a yen-buying spree to shore up the value of their local currency.
  • The dollar climbed to a recent high of ¥149.93 as markets stay in a nail-biting mode, awaiting a possible drop in the exchange rate if an intervention is enacted. Too cheap a yen is generally good for exports, but it lifts import costs, threatening to derail certain supply chains that uphold the local economy’s cash and product flows.
  • With that in mind, not much is unveiled, or about to be unveiled, to market participants this week. An unusually quiet calendar is unfolding for the USD/JPY. Thursday will bring the US GDP growth for the third quarter. Analysts expect a solid 4.1% expansion, up from a previous 2.1% growth rate. That said, keep an eye for breaking news out of Japan as officials may decide to step in with a surprise monster purchase of yen.
Olga DeLawrence / Unsplash
Oct 162023

USD/JPY: Yen Floats at Key ¥150 Level to Dollar. No Signs of Policy Shift Add to Unease.

Traders are looking for fresh clues into a possible intervention from Japan’s officials. All they get is radio silence.

  • The USD/JPY pair is hovering near the key ¥150 level as traders around the world are closely watching for a possible Japan involvement. The exchange rate got a much-needed reprieve last week, but the dollar reaffirmed its foothold and is once again threatening to cross into a one-year high.
  • Last October when the pair eclipsed the ¥150 threshold, Japan officials intervened by buying more than $30bn worth of yen in efforts to prop up its value. The effect was short-lived and soon after the pair was back above the high-water mark. Right now, however, no such talks are bouncing around.
  • Japan is tight-lipped over its potential intervention into the currency market. Some speculate that they will be comfortable letting the yen sink deeper into cheaper territory. A yen that’s too cheap is on the one hand good for exports as foreign buyers pay more for local production. On the other hand, it hurts import costs.
Resource Database / Unsplash
Oct 112023

USD/JPY: Dollar Seeks to Retake ¥149 in 2nd Day of Gains. Is the Yen Reprieve Exhausted?

The safe-haven allure of the yen amid geopolitical tensions is gradually slipping as investors pivot to the mighty US dollar.

  • The USD/JPY pair is on the offensive for a second consecutive day, notching gains of about 0.5% to trade just under the ¥149.00 handle. The yen is giving up its early-week gains picked up when the Israel-Hamas war erupted as forex traders are reverting back to the fashionable US dollar.
  • The yen is perceived as a haven trade in currency markets and investors tend to fly to it in times of geopolitical shocks. As the Middle East conflict is currently not blowing up with the same intensity as the first couple of days, the yen has gradually washed out its luster as a safe place.
  • But with tensions still brewing, market sentiment may quickly shift. In the meantime, investors stay glued to the news trying to figure out what is going on and how to position their portfolio if things get scary in the market. The USD/JPY is hovering around 0.6% away from its recent high of ¥150.15.
Illustration by TradingView
Oct 032023

USD/JPY: Dollar Threatens to Overtake ¥150.00 as Japan Inflation Hurts Yen Value

With Japan’s authorities on intervention watch at current levels, how much more upside is there for the US dollar?

  • The USD/JPY pair advanced to ¥149.93 early on Tuesday as markets did not seem too optimistic about the yen on the back of rising inflation in Japan. Worsening inflation pressures in the Asian country have forced businesses to hike prices, straining the economy with no clear cooling in sight.
  • Why is the Bank of Japan tolerating a prolonged weakness in the yen? On the one hand, it boosts exports and lifts company earnings and share prices. Take Toyota and Honda – these two carmaking giants peaked at record-high valuations in late September when the BoJ reaffirmed its ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
  • Still, a continued drop in the yen’s valuation can’t go on forever. It does hurt imports and if the Bank of Japan doesn’t tweak its policy, inflation may start to bite even harder. To this end, Japan’s central bank is on intervention watch – waiting for the right moment to jump in and prop up the yen by buying tons of it.
Planet Volumes / Unsplash
Sep 272023

USD/JPY: Dollar Eclipses ¥149.00 to Hit Fresh 11-Month High. Will Japan Intervene?

All eyes are now on the key ¥150.00 level as a potential trigger for Japan officials to step in and start buying up the yen.

  • The USD/JPY is motoring higher as if there’s no tomorrow. The US dollar topped ¥149.00 on Tuesday and peaked at a fresh 11-month high of ¥149.15 early on Wednesday. The Japanese yen has been pummeled so bad it’s most likely putting Japan officials on intervention watch. But they won’t tell you about it.
  • Too much yen weakness has the potential to dent Japan’s economy. A weaker local currency can bolster exports like automobiles where Japan has a big advantage with mainstay names such as Toyota and Honda. But a very cheap yen hurts imports, as foreign goods and services cost more.
  • In that context, Japanese officials have been closely monitoring the trajectory of the yen. Analysts are sounding the alarm that a USD/JPY exchange rate above ¥150.00 could be a potential trigger for Japan to intervene and shore up the yen’s valuation by buying as much of it as possible. Late last year, the ¥150.00 level pushed Japan to step in.
Resource Database / Unsplash+
Sep 222023

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Keeps Ultra-Loose Policy with No Sign of Shift, Yen Falls

Japan’s central bank cautioned of “extremely high uncertainties” and maintained interest rates unchanged, pushing the yen lower.

  • The USD/JPY pair slipped on the Bank of Japan’s statement early Friday, which said policymakers would maintain short-term interest rates at -0.1%. The decision defied prior expectations that Japan’s central bank could finally exit its decade-long easy-money policies.
  • The volatile yen tumbled about 75 pips, or 0.5%, against the stronger dollar. The USD/JPY floated to a session high of ¥148.35, about 10 pips shy of an 11-month peak made earlier this week. Traders long the yen did not get their way (again) but at least the drop wasn’t as bad as prior declines.
  • Looking ahead, slim to no guidance was offered by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Not only the central bank remains in stimulus mode, despite inflation topping 3%, it even cited “extremely high uncertainties” in both local and foreign economies. Analysts are now eyeing the ¥150.00 level as a potential trigger for Japanese authorities to step in and buy up piles of yen.
Resource Database / Unsplash+
Sep 192023

USD/JPY: Dollar Firm Above ¥147.50 as Rate Decisions Loom from US and Japan

Interest rates are in the spotlight this week: the Federal Reserve is expected to stay put on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan decides Friday.

  • The USD/JPY pair is sitting tight above ¥147.50 as both sides are gearing up to reveal the latest on the interest-rate front. The Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of Japan, in Japan obvs, have their central bank gatherings this week and things are looking spicy and dicey.
  • On Wednesday, the US central bank holds its regular monetary policy update. Fed chief Jay Powell will appear for a press conference. He is widely expected to skip a rate hike and announce that the Fed is closely monitoring incoming economic data and will do whatever it takes to keep inflation down.
  • The Bank of Japan updates on Friday and the general consensus is for no surprises. Another wait-and-see approach is what analysts are calling for, even at the risk of further yen depreciation. Still, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled policymakers may put an end to negative interest rates by the end of the year.
Resource Database / Unsplash+
Sep 142023

USD/JPY: Dollar Firm at 10-Month High Above ¥147.00 After US Inflation Uptick

The weakness in the yen persists as the Bank of Japan keeps maintaining its status quo monetary policy.

  • The USD/JPY pair is hovering at a 10-month high above ¥147.00 on Thursday, with a session high of ¥147.45. The exchange rate is at the top end of a consolidation area that formed around a week ago. The lack of news has kept traders with hands in their pockets as both sides of the pair are fairly quiet.
  • US inflation data on Wednesday couldn’t spark a dollar move. Consumer prices for Americans climbed 3.7% in August, up from 3.2% in the prior month, on an annualized basis. While it’s an uptick, analysts are convinced it won’t nudge the Federal Reserve to speed up its rate-hike campaign.
  • Japan, on the other hand, is still following its policy of easy money. With the goal of bolstering its economy, the Bank of Japan is allowing interest rates to stay ultra-low, contributing to more money circulating in the system, but also risking to ratchet up inflation pressures. Any news from the BoJ on a potential policy shift and the depressed yen could go parabolic.
Allison Saeng / Unsplash
Sep 062023

USD/JPY: Dollar Resumes Upward Trend Against Yen, Hits 10-Month High at ¥147.90

It’s easy for the dollar to press higher when the Japanese yen is under pressure by the Bank of Japan’s loose monetary policy.

  • The USD/JPY pair rallied early on Wednesday as forex traders found little resistance in the Japanese yen. The greenback soared to a ten-month high of ¥147.90, marking a spectacular rebound from its mid-July lows of ¥137.30, and realizing a monster gain of nearly 8%.
  • To all that caught the upside swing - congrats you market mavens. To the rational minds that still believe in fundamentals - when is the drop coming? That would be when the Bank of Japan finally breaks out of its ultra-loose monetary policy, on the one hand.
  • On the other hand, the US dollar would need to start showing some cracks. For that to happen, the state of the US economy needs to be a little less attractive to the crowds. Presently, a cooling labor market and the prospects of a rate-hike slowdown are not enough to drive the buck lower.
Allison Saeng/ Unsplash
Aug 302023

USD/JPY: Dollar Slips from 10-Month High Above ¥147.00 as Weak US Data Arrives

The dollar got hit by a batch of worrying economic reports, prompting investors to dump their greenback holdings across the board.

  • The USD/JPY exchange rate reversed lofty Tuesday gains after new economic data indicated a weakening labor market paired with falling consumer confidence. Just before the batch was released, the dollar was flying high and going over ¥147.00 with a session top (and a 10-month peak) of ¥147.37.
  • The rally was all done for when a report showed that US job openings contracted to 8.8 million in July, down from 9.2 million in June. The figure was way below an optimistic 9.5 million consensus. In addition, the consumer confidence index sank to 106.1 in August, below July’s reading of 114.
  • As bulls retreated from the greenback, rival currencies got some headspace. Besides the USD/JPY tumbling, the EUR/USD moved higher, edging closer to the $1.09 level after a continued August slide. The GBP/USD also advanced with the sterling climbing for a second day in a row to $1.2640, or just enough to top the 100-day moving average.
Illustration by TradingView
Aug 232023

USD/JPY: Dollar Hovers at 10-Month High. When Is the Bank of Japan’s Next Move Coming?

The weakness in the Japanese yen can quickly turn into strength. All it takes is a single flick from the Bank of Japan.

  • The USD/JPY is floating around a 10-month high, buoyed by a continued US dollar resilience and eerie quietness from the Bank of Japan. On Tuesday morning, the pair gravitated just under the ¥146.00 threshold, slightly below its recent peak of ¥146.55, and on its way to cap a second day in the red.
  • A Japanese yen that goes for more than ¥145 to the dollar is generally a bad deal for the Asian economy. Last time the pair hit that level (September 2022), Japan was forced to intervene for the first time since 1998 and sell more than $48bn to bolster its currency’s valuation. Yet, here we are again.
  • Japan is pretty much the only big economy that hasn’t joined the aggressive series of interest rate increases. It’s all in an effort to support its economy. The cost, however, is a weaker yen, which is good for exports, but hurts imports. With that said, the Bank of Japan’s next monetary policy meeting comes Sept. 22. If officials decide that this is too far ahead, they may intervene at any moment without any heads up.
Hans Isaacson / Unsplash
Aug 182023

USD/JPY: Dollar Snaps 8-Day Winning Streak Against Yen as Traders Turn Bearish

The greenback has notched hefty gains so far in August, but recent reports provide mixed signals for what lies ahead.

  • The USD/JPY pair downshifted its strong momentum, snapping an 8-day all-green rally which lifted the dollar higher by 500 pips, or 3.5%, to ¥146.50. Early on Friday, the greenback is on its way to log a second day in the red, after Thursday’s session ended with a fall of 0.3% to ¥145.85.
  • The exchange rate is looking into a fairly calm day with no major economic news scheduled ahead. As traders take a break, the exhausted dollar is showing mild signs of weakness against other big players, including the euro, the sterling, and the Swiss franc.
  • Economic quietness is bound to extend into next week with no big events slated. Turning to the technical side of things, a double top is resting at ¥146.65, the existing upward trend is still interrupted from its inception point at ¥127.21. And the pair is well above the 200-day moving average, indicating a solid bullish trajectory.
Illustration by TradingView