USDPLN trade ideas
Look for shorts in USDPLNIts OK to short USDPLN as it reached the fib arc level and is forming double top on 4 hours chart. Price will do the Elliot 1-5 wave cycle all the way down to the 0.5 fibonacci level - Gann angle, where it will make Elliott ABC correction and then will go up again...Watch closely the previous patterns as its again repeats the previous moves that I highlighted. The first Elliott wave should be to 0.38 fib level 3.63684 (first TP)
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Pair shows signs of weaknessAfter testing the upper boundary of a long-term channel for a couple of weeks, the US Dollar picked up significant force late in April, dashed through its upper boundary and the 55-, 100– and 200-period SMAs and skyrocketed up to the monthly R2 situated near the 3.62 level.
This strong upside momentum has been constrained in a narrow ascending channel. It is apparent from the pair’s movement this week that the given bullish strength has started to allay, thus pointing to a possible southern breakout from the junior channel. Technical indicators on the 4H and 1D time-frames likewise confirm this scenario, demonstrating that the expected decline might actually prevail for several weeks.
The nearest support of significance is the weekly PP, the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement and the 55-period SMA at 3.54, while the Greenback might still target the 200-period SMA currently located near the 3.44 area in the medium term.
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Occurring reboundThe US Dollar recently reached the lower trend line of a long term descending channel against the Polish currency. As a result the pair has already formed a short term ascending channel pattern.
However, the channel has met with fierce resistance in the form of the monthly S1 at the 3.3760 mark and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located just below it at the 3.3750 mark.
Due to that reason this isn’t a set up where one can simply enter. Instead a retail trader should look for the moment, when the mentioned resistance is finally passed. When that occurs, most likely a break out to the upside will occur.