Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to resistance area 64.8.Colleagues, in fact, I have not changed the wave markup, but I have a slightly different view on the near-term price movement plan.
In the last forecast I emphasized that the target is the area of 58.9, but now it looks more likely that the completion of wave “C” in a complex correction (resistance area 64.8). Then I will consider the long-awaited downward movement again.
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Trade ideas
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Selling Imbalance
Look at a large selling imbalance candle that was formed
on an hourly time frame after a test of falling trend line on a daily.
I think that there is a high chance that WTI Crude Oil will
continue falling now.
Goal - 59.6
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US CRUDE OIL (WTI): Classic Trend-Following Setup I spotted a very classic bullish model on 📈USOIL.
Following a strong bullish wave, the market started to correct within a bullish flag pattern.
The resistance breakout of this pattern consistently provides a reliable confirmation to consider a buy.
I anticipate a rise to 62.50 at this time.
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Faces HurdlesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Faces Hurdles
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $58.80.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil prices failed to clear the $61.20 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil, the price struggled to clear $61.20 against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $60.00.
The bears gained strength and pushed the price below $59.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested $58.80 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above $59.40, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $61.21 swing high to the $58.80 low.
The bears are now active below $59.80. If there is a fresh increase, the price could face a barrier near $60.00. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60.00.
The first major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement at $60.65. The next stop for the bulls could be near $61.20. Any more gains might send the price toward $62.00. Conversely, the price might start another decline and test $59.40.
The next major area of interest for the bulls on the WTI crude oil chart is $58.80. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $57.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $55.00.
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WTI OIL Successive 1D MA50 rejections. Sell Signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Down with the price experiencing successive rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the October 24 Lower High.
Given that the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level was also filled (as on the previous Lower High), we expect this inability to break above, to kickstart the new Bearish Leg.
As previously, the Target is the Support at $56.00.
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OIL Rejected Again at Resistance OIL Rejected Again at Resistance: Bears Preparing for Another Push Down
Oil continues to struggle below the 60.50–60.60 resistance zone, where price has been rejected multiple times, confirming selling pressure.
Each test of this zone has led to a swift bearish move — and this time might be no different. As long as oil trades below 60.50, the short-term bias remains bearish.
A clean breakdown could open the way toward:
🎯Quick Target: 59.40
🎯 Target 1: 59.00
🎯 Target 2: 58.30
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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WTI OIL 4H Channel Down aiming for a Lower Low.WTI Oil (USOIL) is extending the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) rejection of October 24 and has formed a short-term Channel Down. We are currently on its second Bearish Leg following a new rejection this time on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the first Bearish Leg declining by -4.72%, we expect the current one to replicate this drop and target $58.60.
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The Imminent U.S.–Iran Crisis: A Real-Time Analytical AssessmentDate of Analysis: Friday, November 7, 2025
Overview
The following is a condensed version of a dynamic strategic discussion between an intelligent user and an AI assistant. The analysis aimed to decode the hidden layers of a potentially imminent military crisis in the Middle East through real-time observation of geopolitical developments.
Introduction: Initial Hypothesis and the Major Shift
The analysis initially rested on the assumption that following the “12-Day War” (June 2025), the region was in a fragile ceasefire. The central question was when the “second round” of conflict might begin. It was correctly identified that Israel’s main constraint was a shortage of defensive missiles.
Turning Point:
Assuming four months had passed since the first war, it was concluded that the logistical bottleneck (missile defense shortage) had likely been resolved. This invalidated earlier timelines predicting renewed conflict by December and instead shifted the danger window to November—the current month.
Part I: The Strategic Deception (Iraq and Venezuela as Cover)
Attention then turned to a wave of simultaneous “crisis signals”: rising talk of “a U.S. conflict with Venezuela” and “U.S. warnings to Iraq.”
Assessment:
These were identified as elements of a classic deception operation, intended to divert the attention of the media, diplomats, and, most importantly, Iran’s intelligence and defense systems away from the real target. This served as a perfect cover for preparing a strike on Iran.
Part II: Breakdown of the Deception and Loss of Surprise
Key Insight (User’s Observation):
The user correctly noted that this deception had failed. With “war with Iran” trending again in global media and official warnings escalating, Iran was no longer complacent—it had entered maximum alert.
This fundamentally changed the dynamics. The element of surprise, the attacker’s greatest asset, was now entirely lost.
Part III: The “Forced Hand” Scenario
When surprise evaporates, what can the attacker (the U.S. and Israel) do next?
Analysis:
The attacker is now trapped in a strategic stalemate:
Cost of Attrition: Maintaining full-scale military readiness for both sides is expensive, stressful, and unsustainable.
Risk of Delay: Every passing hour allows Iran to disperse and conceal its strategic assets (missiles, drones), making target acquisition harder.
Point of No Return: The use of Venezuela and Iraq as covers was the equivalent of cocking a rifle—any retreat now would amount to a catastrophic strategic humiliation for the U.S.
Time-Based Conclusion:
Since the deception failed and surprise is gone, the attacker is effectively compelled to act. They must launch the attack before their forces degrade further and before Iran becomes even more fortified.
New Urgent Window: Within 24 to 72 hours (this very weekend).
Part IV: The Hidden Economics of War — Why “Crisis” Becomes a “Solution”
In the final stage, the focus shifted from “when” to “why”, exploring the economic motives driving the potential escalation. The analysis suggested that this war could serve as a planned economic reset to address U.S. domestic challenges.
Global Economic Shock:
The immediate aftermath of an attack would be a spike in oil prices (estimated to surpass $150 per barrel within 24 hours) due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation—triggering global stagflation.
Dollar Strength (Flight to Safety):
During such turmoil, global investors would flee risky assets (like crypto, which had already pre-priced a downturn) and rush into U.S. dollars, causing the DXY index to surge.
Domestic Political and Economic Diversion (Wag the Dog Effect):
This crisis would allow the U.S. government to:
Deflect attention from domestic debt and weak economic indicators (e.g., PMI and recession risks).
Reignite the military-industrial complex, boosting GDP through massive arms sales to regional allies and internal consumption.
Justify inflation by attributing it to “geopolitical instability and rising oil prices” rather than past monetary policies.
How to Trade Crude Oil with Smart Money Concepts SMC Explained
Smart Money Concepts is one of the most reliable techniques for trading WTI Crude Oil.
In this article, I will teach you a profitable SMC strategy for analysing and trading USOIL futures and CFD.
This simple strategy is based on an important event every SMC trader should know - a break of structure BoS.
In a bullish trend, the best break of structure will be based on a violation and a candle close above a current higher high.
It will signify a highly probable bullish continuation and provides a great opportunity to buy
Though you can spot a bullish break of structure on any time frame, the most reliable one is a daily.
After a formation of a new high, I suggest waiting for a short term intraday correctional movement.
With a high probability, the market will retest a recently broken structure and smart money will manipulate the market, pushing the price below that, making buyers close their positions.
Once the market starts retracing, analyze an hourly time frame. The price will need to establish an i ntraday minor bearish trend.
In this bearish trend, 2 trend lines should connect lower highs and lower lows composing an expanding, parallel or contracting channel - a bullish flag pattern.
Your best signal will be a breakout of a resistance line of the flag and a violation of the level of the last lower high - a bullish change of character of a liquidity grab.
It will confirm a completion of a correction.
Buy the market on a retest of the level of the last higher low, it will be your best entry.
Set your stop loss at least below a trend line and aim at the next strong daily resistance.
That will be a perfect model for trading break of structure on WTI Crude Oil.
We spotted such a setup in my trading academy on one of the live streams with my students.
WTI Crude Oil was trading in an uptrend on a daily time frame.
A bullish violation of the last Higher High and a candle close above that confirmed a Break of Structure BoS.
The price started a correctional movement then, and we spotted a bullish flag pattern on an hourly time frame.
The market completed a correction after grabbing a liquidity below a broken structure.
A bullish movement started then, and the price violated a resistance line of the flag and the level of the last lower high.
These 2 breakouts confirmed a completion of a correction and a resumption of a bullish trend.
We opened a buy position immediately on a retest of a broken level of the last lower high.
Stop loss was below a trend line, take profit was based on the closest key daily resistance.
And the price went straight to the target.
Break of Structure BoS will be useful for analysis, forecasting and trading WTI Crude Oil.
Combining that with top-down analysis and lower time frames confirmations will provide accurate signals and profitable trading setups.
Integrate a price model that I shared in your strategy, and good luck to you trading USOIL!
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USOIL🧩 Chart Type
• 1-hour timeframe (CFDs on WTI Crude Oil)
• The chart is mainly based on Elliott Wave and harmonic pattern analysis.
⸻
🔍 Key Observations
1. Falling Wedge / Channel
• The price is moving inside a descending wedge pattern (two converging trendlines).
• This usually signals a potential bullish reversal once the pattern completes.
⸻
2. Wave Structure (Elliott Waves)
• The chart labels show A-B-C corrective waves inside the wedge.
• Currently, the market seems to be completing a C wave downwards within a complex correction.
⸻
3. Harmonic Pattern (Possibly a Bat / Gartley)
• There are multiple X-A-B-C-D harmonic projections.
• The final D point appears around 57.8 – 58.0 USD, where Fibonacci extensions (1.618 and 2.24) align.
• This area is likely a potential reversal zone (PRZ).
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4. Expected Move
• After completing the downward C or D leg near $57.8–58.0,
the chart projects a strong upward move — shown by the large vertical arrow.
• This suggests a bullish reversal is expected once the final leg finishes.
WTI on high time frame
1. **Current Price Action**: WTI has reached the $56 level, indicating a liquidity sweep.
2. **Signals for Higher Prices**: After the liquidity sweep, there are indications that prices may rise, with the first target at around $64.
3. **Geopolitical Factors**: The analysis is contingent on geopolitical stability, as any changes in tariffs or geopolitical situations can invalidate this forecast.
If you need more detailed analysis or specific aspects explained, feel free to ask!
USOIL: Q4/2025 Q1 2026 Action PlansSentiment:
- The broader market is cautious in a risk-off environment, which typically translates to concerns about demand and the strength of the US dollar. However, the market is not in a state of panic as the Fear Index is at around 30, opening room for either direction.
- Social Media (X/Twitter): The current tone is positive, as participants expect USOil to rise within the range of 57.50-65.00 in the near term, anticipating an upcoming upward breakout.
- The COT report shows extremely bearish sentiment regarding the latest data from 26/9 (following the US government shutdown), so we can only have a snapshot of more than a month ago. Although the current sentiment may or may not be as extreme (we need to wait for the latest data), it still reflects the state of market positioning.
- I think that Retail is unaware of positioning extremes and is more focused on technical breakout. It may lead to a sentiment shift as a result of a technical breakout and changes in the fundamental narrative.
Fundamental:
A. OPEC+ Production Shift:
- Narrative: OPEC+ has pivoted to MORE cautious supply management. After nine consecutive monthly increases, the group is now implementing only a modest 137k bpd increase for Dec 2025, followed by a production pause for the entire first quarter of 2026.
- Rationale: Healthy market fundamentals, low inventory levels, seasonal demand
- It means more supportive than what we observed earlier in 2025. Q1 2026 pause suggests OPEC+ acknowledges oversupply risks and is being disciplined. One more thing to note is that the current price is also not entirely factored into this narrative.
B. Geopolitical Risk Premium Returning:
- Narrative: Recent US/EU sanctions on Russian energy companies and escalating tension in oil-producing regions are providing price support.
- Market impact: This narrative provides a fundamental floor for price at least till the end of this year.
C. Bearish Fundamentals - Oversupply into 2026:
- Narrative: Despite the OPEC+ pause, global oil inventories are expected to rise through 2026 on weak demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases (such as the US production)
- Factors: global inventories forecast to rise through 2026, weak demand from China, tariff uncertainties and US production at record levels.
- Market impact: Bearish medium-term outlook for Q1-Q2 2026.
Technical:
- USOIL broke the small blue channel and is expected to reach the measured level at around 65, confluence with the Sep resistances.
- If USOIL can hold above 60 (retest the broken channel), it may resume its momentum to retest the key resistance at 62 first, then 65, as measured by the move upon breaking.
- Conversely, closing below the support at 59.30 may invalidate the short-term upward view and open the door for further decline, potentially retesting the swing low at 56.80.
Conclusion:
- Despite a short-term upward momentum until year-end, the prospect for USOIL in 2026 is not as promising.
- Therefore, a range of 65-70 is possible for the short term upward plan; however, any surge bejond that may open another opportunity for counter-trade setups in Q1-Q2 2026.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Is XTI/USD Setting Up for a Sharp Bearish Correction?🚨 WTI/USD CRUDE OIL: THE BEARISH HEIST AWAITS 🎯
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THE SETUP: Breaking Down The Crime Scene 🕵️♂️
We're executing a bearish pullback strategy on WTI/USD spot crude oil, leveraging the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) as our primary technical confirmation. The energy sector is flashing opportunity signals, and it's time to work the levels like a seasoned professional.
📊 STRATEGY FRAMEWORK
Market Direction: Bearish Pullback from 200 SMA Resistance
Timeframe: Suitable for Swing & Day Trading Operations
Asset Class: Energies | WTI Crude Oil Spot
💰 THE LAYERED ENTRY STRATEGY (Multi-Level Approach)
This is where the Thief Method shines—stacking limit orders at key price levels to accumulate positions as the market comes to you:
Suggested Entry Layer Points:
Layer 1: 60.50 💧
Layer 2: 60.00 💧
Layer 3: 59.50 💧
Layer 4: 59.00 💧
⚠️ Pro Tip: Feel free to add or adjust layers based on your risk tolerance and position size. The beauty of this method is scalability—customize to YOUR account size and risk parameters.
🛑 STOP LOSS PLACEMENT
Primary SL Level: 61.00
Positioned at the nearest swing high/candle wick resistance above our entry cluster. This respects natural market structure and gives us a defined, measurable risk point.
⚡ DISCLAIMER ON RISK MANAGEMENT:
This is NOT financial advice. Risk management is YOUR responsibility. The suggested SL is based on technical structure, but YOU control your account. Set stops that align with YOUR risk tolerance. Trade only what you can afford to lose.
🎯 PROFIT TARGET STRUCTURE
Primary Target: 56.50
Secondary Support Level: 56.00 — A police barricade of strength where multiple factors converge:
Strong historical support confluence 📍
Oversold zone recognition ⚖️
Potential reversal trap (exit strategy alert) ⚠️
Exit Strategy: Consider banking profits at 56.50 before support intensifies at 56.00. Lock in gains as the technical structure suggests potential friction.
⚡ DISCLAIMER ON PROFIT TARGETS:
Again, these are TECHNICAL levels only. YOU decide your exit strategy. Whether you take full profits at 56.50, trail stops, or use partial exits—this is YOUR trading plan. No setup is guaranteed.
🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (Correlation Check)
Understanding energy market interrelations helps you spot confirmation signals:
US Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) → Inverse correlation to crude oil. Strengthen USD = Bearish pressure on oil. Watch DXY for confirmation of our bearish bias.
CSEMA:S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY / CME_MINI:ES1! ) → Risk sentiment indicator. If equities weaken, crude often follows bearish patterns. Check equity trends for macro confirmation.
Energy Select Sector ETF ( AMEX:XLE ) → Direct correlation. Tracks large-cap energy stocks. Oil weakness often precedes XLE drops.
FX:EURUSD → Global risk sentiment. Weak euro = risk-off environment = potential crude weakness. Monitor for macro context.
AMEX:USO (Crude Oil ETF) → Direct oil tracking instrument. Moves in lockstep with WTI. Use for backup confirmation.
📋 THE THIEF STRATEGY CHECKLIST
✅ Confirm 200 SMA as resistance/bearish context
✅ Stack limit orders—don't chase price
✅ Define your personal stop loss (around 61.00 structure)
✅ Target scale-outs near 56.50-56.00
✅ Use correlation pairs for macro confirmation
✅ Manage position size ruthlessly
✅ Accept losses—they're tuition in the market
💬 ENGAGEMENT BOOST
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
#WTI #CrudeOil #EnergyTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ThiefStrategy #SwingTrading #DayTrading #Trading101 #ForexEnergy #MultiLayerEntry #RiskManagement #TradingSetup #FinancialMarkets #Energies #TradingCommunity
WTI Crude Oil: Is a New Super-Cycle About to Ignite?WTI may be approaching one of its most important turning points in years. The long correction from the 2022 high appears complete, and multiple technical frameworks now align to signal a potential new bullish cycle.
Price remains supported on the 3/1 Gann angle on the monthly chart. A monthly close above $70 opens the first breakout phase, while a break above $130 would confirm a new multi-year advance. Gann cycle timing highlights 2027, 2029, and 2031 as major future peak windows.
The weekly trend remains firm above the $55.15 structural low, reinforcing the April 2025 cycle bottom. Elliott Wave counts show a clean 5-wave rally into 2022, followed by an ABC correction into 2025, which strongly suggests the market has reset.
If momentum builds, WTI could target new all-time highs, with potential to stretch toward the $200 region in the next major cycle.
Vital Direction sees oil entering a phase where long-term opportunity may outweigh risk, with breakout levels clearly defined.
USOIL Will Grow! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 60.422.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 65.013 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Potential bullish bounce off?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 58.95
1st Support: 57.72
1st Resistance: 61.08
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 59.00.Colleagues, the situation is complicated, but I still expect the price to renew the local low of 56.40.
It looks like the price is forming a complex compound correction (WXY) and I think that for now it is worth looking at the 59.00 area as the nearest most likely level.
Ideally, I would like to see the completion of wave “C” in the area of 64.80.
Fundamental context
According to the latest IEA report, the global oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand. For 2025, production is expected to rise by around 3 million barrels per day, while demand growth is forecast at only 0.7 million barrels. This imbalance increases the risk of oversupply and inventory buildup across key regions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Crude oil: test the upside potentialAfter completing the consolidation and foundation-building phase yesterday, crude oil has maintained a fluctuating upward trend today.
We will continue to monitor the strength and effectiveness of the rebound. Based on the momentum of the consolidation, crude oil should be able to extend its gains today. If the momentum is strong, it could reach around 61. Therefore, from a short-term perspective, we can still take long positions to test the upside potential.
Buy 58.8 - 59.3
SL 58.3
TP 59.8 - 60.3 - 61
Sell 61 - 60.5
SL 61.5
TP 59.5 - 59 - 58.5
wti 4h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.






















