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WTI Technical Forecast: Critical Juncture at Multi-Month SupportSPOTCRUDE (WTI) Technical Forecast: Critical Juncture at Multi-Month Support Analysis as of 18th Oct 2025 (Close: 57.715) Market Context: Crude oil sits at a pivotal technical level. Geopolitical tensions provide a bullish fundamental backdrop, but the technical picture shows a market at a make-or-break support zone. Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Top-Down View) Swing Bias (D1/4H): Bearish Below $59.00 The daily chart paints a concerning picture. Price is trapped below all key EMAs (50 & 200), confirming a bearish trend structure. We are testing a major Wyckoff Accumulation Zone and a potential Bearish Bat Harmonic pattern completion near $57.50. The RSI is in bearish territory but approaching oversold, hinting at potential for a relief rally. Intraday Bias (1H/30M): Neutral to Cautious Bullish The 4H and 1H charts show consolidation after a sharp decline. The Ichimoku Cloud is thick resistance overhead, while the Anchored VWAP from the recent high confirms strong selling pressure. A break above the $58.20 level is needed to signal any short-term strength. Key Chart Patterns & Theories in Play Elliott Wave: The decline from the highs appears to be a clear 5-wave impulse down, suggesting we are completing Wave 5. This often precedes a significant corrective (A-B-C) rally. Gann Analysis: The Square of 9 identifies $57.50 as a major harmonic support level. A break below targets $56.00 next. Head and Shoulders? A large-scale pattern on the weekly chart has met its minimum target. The current price action could be the final leg of this move. Bull Trap Risk: A swift bounce to $58.50-$59.00 that fails could trap eager bulls before the next leg down. Actionable Trade Setups 🟢 Swing Trade (Counter-Trend Long) Entry: $57.40 - $57.70 (Confluence with Harmonic & Gann Support) Stop Loss: $56.90 Take Profit 1: $59.00 Take Profit 2: $60.00 🔴 Swing Trade (Momentum Short) Trigger: A decisive 4H close below $57.30. Entry: On retest of $57.50 as resistance. Stop Loss: $58.10 Take Profit: $56.00 ⚫ Intraday Long (Bounce Play) Trigger: Bullish reversal candle (e.g., Hammer/Bullish Engulfing) on the 1H chart at $57.50 support. Entry: On trigger candle close. Stop Loss: $57.20 Take Profit: $58.40 Key Levels Resistance 3: $60.00 (Psychological / 50 EMA) Resistance 2: $59.00 (Ichimoku Cloud Base) Resistance 1: $58.20 - $58.50 (Immediate Supply Zone) Support 1: $57.50 - $57.70 (CRITICAL SUPPORT) Support 2: $56.90 (Breakdown Trigger) Support 3: $56.00 (Next Gann Target) Conclusion WTI is at a critical inflection point. The high-probability play is a bounce from the $57.50 support for a swing towards $59.00. However, a break below this level would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend. Trade the breakout/breakdown with clear confirmation. Risk Warning: Trading crude oil involves high risk due to volatility and leverage. This analysis is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk and conduct your own due diligence.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by sunya
WTI OIL hit the Channel Down bottom. Buy Signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 30 High and today it hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). The decline from the recent Lower High was around -13%, similar to the previous Bearish Leg. When that bottomed (Lower Low), it rebounded towards its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and peaked (Lower High) marginally above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we expect a new Bullish Leg to start now, with our Target at $62.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
USOIL : Full analysisHello friends Well, considering the sharp decline we had, the price has entered a descending channel and is slowly going down in this channel. Now the price has reached a critical point, namely the bottom of the channel. We need to see if buyers will support the price at the bottom of the channel like the previous two times or not? If we do not see support from buyers and the channel is broken, we can expect lower prices. 56.30 and 53 dollars respectively. But we will most likely see buyers' support in this area and the price could even reach the channel ceiling. *Trade safely with us*
TVC:USOILLong
by TheHunters_Company
WTI to $55 amid excess supply concerns?There was some relief at the start of the week for oil prices as traders reacted to the weekend news of de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China and figured that a potential extension of the tariff truce would be net positive for the demand outlook. However, the recovery stalled as WTI prices couldn’t break above $60 per barrel and have since turned flat on the week. The bearish trend thus remains intact for oil. Here, investors are concerned about the excess supply of the stuff hitting the markets, as the OPEC+ is gradually releasing some withheld oil supplies to win back market share. The group’s plan is to increase production by a total of 1.65 million barrels per day by the end of 2025. It has already increased output by 137K bpd from October. Against a backdrop of increasing supplies, it looks like WTI is heading towards the April lows of around $55.00 again. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREX.com
Crude Oil: Mainly Expected to Oscillate DownwardCrude oil has been in a continuous downward trend recently. Both the daily chart movement and the moving average system show a downward divergence pattern, and a new descending channel has been officially formed. In terms of operation, we need to continue to follow the bearish trend. Today, we can take the opportunity of a rebound at the 58 level to set up short positions. Special attention should be paid to the fact that crude oil is about to enter the contract delivery period. We need to focus on whether the delivery situation will disrupt the current trend. From the perspective of the current fundamentals and news, the long and short factors are clearly one-sided, and the overall situation still mainly depresses crude oil prices. Sell 58.8 TP 58 - 55 SL 60.2 Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
CFI:WTIShort
by Clarke_analysis
WTI Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis🛢️ WTI Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis Wave Structure · Smart Money · Fib Confluence · Price Action 🔎 Market Context & Overview WTI Crude Oil remains one of the most critical and closely watched commodities in the global market. After decades of dramatic price swings driven by geopolitical events, supply shocks, and evolving demand patterns, the market now appears poised at a pivotal juncture. Combining Elliott Wave theory , Smart Money Concepts , Fibonacci retracements & extensions , and price action analysis with fundamental macro insights reveals a compelling narrative: Crude is concluding a prolonged corrective phase and preparing for a significant breakout. This analysis breaks down each wave, highlighting key technical and fundamental factors shaping the future trajectory of oil prices. 🔹 Wave 1 – Early Impulse (1970s–1985) 📉 Technicals: Formed the foundational uptrend post-oil embargo. 🧠 SMC: Accumulation following global inflation shock. 📊 Fib: Initial rally; shallow extension, not impulsive in character. 🌍 Macro: Oil embargo, inflation, and a restructuring of global energy markets gave birth to this initial move. 🔹 Wave 2 – Complex Correction (1985–1999) 🔁 Technicals: Multi-decade W-X-Y corrective pattern, fully retracing Wave 1. 🧠 SMC: Smart Money accumulation masked by long-term bearish structure. 📊 Fib : Deep correction toward 78.6%, classic for Wave 2. 🌐 Macro: OPEC instability, Gulf War, rising non-OPEC supply, and suppressed demand through globalization. 🔹 Wave 3 – Supercycle Rally (1999–2008) 🚀 Technicals: Powerful impulsive rally, achieving 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1. 🧠 SMC: Clear Break of Structure (BoS) in early 2000s; institutions led the markup. 📊 Fib: Ideal third-wave behavior — extended and directional. 📈 Macro: China-led supercycle, supply bottlenecks, geopolitical conflict, and a commodities renaissance pushed oil to $147.27. 🔹 Wave 4 – Still In Progress (2008–2026 est.) 🔄 Technicals: Long, complex W-X-Y-X-Z or potential triangle; entering final E-leg now. 🧠 SMC: Liquidity grabs during COVID (2020) and 2022–24 highs; Smart Money sweeping both ends. 📊 Fib: Final leg projected to terminate near 0.5 retracement of Wave 3 (~$47.55). 🔍 Price Action: Distribution in 2011–14, liquidation in 2020, false rallies, and compression since 2022. 🧨 Macro: GFC aftermath, shale oversupply, COVID demand crash, ESG underinvestment. Currently driven by energy policy chaos and geopolitical rebalancing. ⏳ Wave 4 is near completion , with the final move expected to tag the 0.5 retracement before reversal. 🔹 Wave 5 – Upcoming Macro Breakout (2026–2032 est.) ⚡ Technicals: Expected impulsive breakout wave toward price discovery. 🧠 SMC: Anticipate Break of Structure (BoS) above $147 for confirmation of markup phase. 📊 Fib: Target zone between previous high ($147) and 2.618 extension (~$366.58). 🔥 Macro: Long-term underinvestment, peak cheap oil, geopolitical tension (Russia, Middle East), energy transition bottlenecks. Inflation & policy shifts will add fuel. 📍 This is the final leg of the cycle and could mirror or even exceed the explosiveness of Wave 3 due to multi-decade supply-demand imbalances. ✅ Final Summary Crude Oil is completing its Wave 4 correctio n, expected to bottom around $47.55 — the 0.5 retracement of Wave 3 . The corrective structure is nearly exhausted, showing signs of Smart Money accumulation and multi-leg exhaustion. Once Wave 4 completes, a powerful Wave 5 is expected to begin, targeting $195–$366 , driven by macro energy scarcity, inflation, and long-term capital flow back into commodities. This is a strategic inflection zone — where technical compression meets macro ignition. "Master the waves, follow the smart money, and let Fibonacci guide your path to consistent trading success." — FIBCOS #WTICrudeOil #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #OilTrading #CommodityAnalysis #MarketCycles #PriceAction
TVC:USOILLong
by fibcos
Copper and Oil: A Rare Divergence in the Commodity ComplexThe chart compares Copper (brown) and TVC:USOIL (blue) — two of the most cyclical commodities, both highly sensitive to global growth. Historically, they tend to move in tandem: when economic momentum improves, both rise; when demand weakens, both fall. But today we see an unusual divergence — -Copper holding near multi-year highs, supported by structural deficits and energy transition demand. -Oil trading below $60, its lowest since 2021, signaling cyclical slowdown and weak liquidity. This gap rarely lasts long. Either copper is too optimistic, or oil is too pessimistic — one of them is likely “lying.” Which one will be right this time?
TVC:USOIL
by OrbisInvestment
2
Why Oil’s Drop Fuels a Global Risk-Off SentimentWTI Crude Oil Monthly Technical Outlook: Below $60 and the Broader Market Implications As the fourth quarter of 2025 unfolds, the WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) chart offers a critical perspective on the state of global supply-demand balance and its broader impact on market sentiment. Trading near $58.5 per barrel, oil prices have fallen below a key psychological threshold, and while the move may seem technical at first, its implications reach far beyond the energy market. The combination of weakening momentum indicators, rising supply projections, and softening global demand paints a nuanced but important story: oil’s slide below $60 is no longer just a chart event, it’s a macro signal about global growth, supply dynamics, and investor positioning. Technical Overview: Momentum Loss Deepens The monthly chart for WTI shows a clear picture of fatigue after multiple failed rebound attempts over the past 18 months. Since peaking near $130 in early 2022, prices have formed a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting an extended process of distribution. In recent months, WTI has failed to sustain moves above $70, with sellers consistently stepping in on rallies. The October bar extended losses toward the $58 level, marking the weakest monthly close since mid-2023. Structurally, this decline puts WTI in a critical support zone between $55 and $57, which coincides with the base that previously stabilized prices in late 2023. Should this zone fail, the next major support rests around $50 per barrel, aligning with a key Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 rally. On the upside, the resistance band remains in the $65–$68 range, a descending trendline that has capped every rebound since early 2024. A decisive monthly close above that zone would be the first confirmation of renewed strength, but momentum indicators are still leaning toward continued weakness or sideways consolidation. MACD and Stochastic RSI: Weakening Momentum Signals The MACD (12,26,9) indicator remains subdued below the zero line, underscoring a prolonged loss of upside momentum. The histogram has recently turned red again, indicating that the MACD line may cross below the signal line, a potential confirmation that sellers still control the trend. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI, which measures RSI velocity, has rolled over from midrange levels and is pointing lower again. Its failure to sustain a rebound above 50 shows that bullish energy has faded. If this oscillator drops below 30, it would confirm a continuation of weak-to-neutral price action through the rest of Q4. Historically, such conditions precede prolonged consolidation phases, where volatility contracts before a new trend forms. Together, these indicators portray a market not in full capitulation, but clearly lacking conviction for an upside breakout. Fundamental Picture: Oversupply Meets Slowing Demand While technical signals reveal a loss of momentum, the fundamental backdrop provides stronger clues about why oil has struggled to maintain value above $60. Recent data from major energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and multiple Reuters reports, converge on one central theme: the global oil market is entering a surplus phase, with supply growth outpacing demand. Large Oversupply Projections Read full analysis on my website darrismanresearch com
TVC:USOIL
by mrifkidrn
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 58.884Colleagues, it appears that the downward movement is not over and I see several reasons to continue to look short. The higher order wave “C” is looking to complete the correction and I expect the start of the middle order wave “3” to see the low update and reach the support area at 58.884. Fundamental context Oil remains under pressure as supply increases and demand outlook weakens. OPEC+ decided to slightly raise output for November, while U.S. inventories keep growing. Crude lost about 8% last week, and EIA now expects lower prices by the end of the year — all of which supports the idea of a continued downside move within wave “3” toward the 58.884 support area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
5
Crude Oil Trading Map: Bullish Momentum vs Key Resistance🛢️ WTI Crude Oil (USOIL/XTIUSD) – Energies Market Wealth Strategy Map ⚡ 🎯 Trade Plan (Swing/Day Trade Vibe) 📌 Bias: Bullish setup confirmed by Triangular Moving Average dynamic resistance breakout. 💰 Entry (Thief Layering Strategy): We don’t just walk in the front door — we layer like true OG’s. Buy Limit Layers: 6450, 6500, 6550, 6600 You can always add more “layers” depending on your conviction & style. 🛑 Stop Loss (Thief Escape Plan): Suggested SL: 6350 ⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) — I’m not recommending you use only my SL. Risk is yours, profit is yours. Protect your bag your way. 🎯 Target Zone (Profit Heist Exit): First escape point: 6900 Above here? Careful. Around 6950 sits a Police Barricade 🚔 (Resistance + Overbought Trap). That’s where the chase gets real — don’t overstay! 🔑 Key Notes for the Thief OG’s: Layering Strategy: Spreading entries reduces exposure & maximizes flexibility. Dynamic Resistance Breakout: Momentum shift confirms bulls are sneaking in. Psychological Trap @6950: Overbought zones = potential reversals. 🔗 Correlation & Related Pairs to Watch: TVC:USOIL / FXOPEN:XTIUSD (Primary Chart) BLACKBULL:BRENT / TVC:UKOIL → Closely tracks WTI, sometimes diverges. FX:USDJPY & TVC:DXY → Oil often inversely correlated with the US Dollar. OANDA:XAGUSD & OANDA:XAUUSD → Commodity cousins, useful for cross-market sentiment. FOREXCOM:SPX500 & NASDAQ:NDX → Risk-on sentiment can boost crude oil demand outlook. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief Style Trading Strategy — just for fun and market education. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. #USOIL #XTIUSD #CrudeOil #WTI #EnergyMarkets #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #ThiefStrategy
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by The-Thief
WTI Crude Oil range trading support at 5747The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 6030, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move. A bearish rejection from 6030 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5747, followed by 5677 and 5606 over a longer timeframe. Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6030 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6073, then 6170. Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6030. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by Trade Nation
Oil stays pressured by a looming OPEC+ hike and US–China strainsOil stays pressured by a looming OPEC+ hike and U.S.–China strains Fundamental Analysis 1. Oil prices remain under pressure from an upcoming OPEC+ production increase next month, even though they paused their decline over the past two days on news that India may stop buying Russian crude. 2. U.S.–China trade tension, especially tariffs threats, export restrictions, and port charges on both sides are likely weighing on global demand. 3. India has not confirmed a halt to purchases yet, but reports say some refiners may reduce imports of Russian oil. 4. Markets are awaiting EIA data, which could indicate the price direction, after the API reported a large build in crude inventories and gasoline, while distillates fell. Technical Analysis 5. USOIL keep falling, breaking below the previous low. Price move below diverging bearish EMAs, signaling strengthening bearish momentum, signalling for further declines. 6. If USOIL breaks below the previous low at 58.00, it could test the lowest level in four and a half years at 55.00 and potentially break lower. 7. However, price could first rebound to retest the 60.00 area before resuming the longer-term downtrend. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:USOILLong
by KrisadaYoonaisil
USOIL Pressured by Trade Tensions and Oversupply Concerns Fundamental approach: - USOIL prices declined this week, pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and persistent concerns about oversupply.​ - USOIL fell following President Trump's threat of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, starting 1 Nov, which reignited fears of reduced global energy demand from the world's largest consumers. - In addition, easing Middle East tensions removed risk premiums, capping gains. OPEC+ is continuing its production increases, with the group adding 137k bpd in Nov. - US crude inventories also rose by 3.7 mln barrels in early Oct, exceeding analyst expectations and reinforcing concerns about a supply glut.​ - Prices may face further downward pressure as global inventory builds are expected to average 2.6 mln barrels per day through 4Q. However, any progress in US-China trade negotiations or unexpected supply disruptions from Eastern Europe could provide upside support.​ Technical approach: - USOIL strongly declined after retesting EMA21. The price created lower swings, indicating bearish momentum persists. - If USOIL remains below the resistance at 60.30, the price may continue to decline toward the following support at 55.50. - On the contrary, closing above 60.30 may prompt a further correction to retest the following resistance at 62.00. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by DatTong
Crude oil's trend continues to oscillate downwardCrude oil has been oscillating downward in the short term, touching 57.7. The moving average system is diverging downward and suppressing oil prices, with the objective short-term trend direction being bearish. In the early session, oil prices rebounded from the bottom, but the momentum was relatively weak. The MACD indicator is operating below the zero line, and bearish momentum still dominates. It is expected that crude oil will mainly trade with an oscillating downward trend during the day. Sell 58.8 TP 57.80 SL 59.40 Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
CFI:WTIShort
by Clarke_analysis