Oil: Key Fibonacci Zone to watch forPrice has been in a clear downtrend, with sellers firmly in control, driving a series of lower lows and lower highs. However, after a strong bearish leg, momentum began to slow, candles started showing long wicks and smaller bodies, signaling that selling pressure might be fading.
If price continues upward, the $61.50 region becomes a crucial zone. A strong rejection from there would confirm that sellers are reloading for another push down.
In short, this is a Fibonacci retracement move within a broader downtrend.
Trade ideas
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.00.As I continued to watch oil I realized that the structure I built in the last forecast is still in place. I think we should expect a correction in wave “4” to the 59.3 area, then a continuation of the downward movement at least to the 54.00 support area. This will be the completion of the downward impulse.
I do not exclude the probability of lengthening of wave “3” and in this case there will be no correction and the price will immediately reach the target.
Fundamental context
The oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand, raising the risk of a surplus. Forecasts for 2025-2026 indicate higher production growth while consumption slows.
Rising inventories and a shift in the futures curve into contango suggest growing storage levels and weaker near-term demand.
Under these conditions, downside pressure persists, keeping the probability of a further decline high.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI OIL Strong long-term rebound incoming.Over a month ago (September 17, see chart below), we gave a strong Sell Signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) as the price was again rejected on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and was headed towards the inner Higher Lows trend-line, easily hitting our $59.50 Target in the process:
Yet again we consult the more reliable long-term time-frames, now making a bullish call as the price is already rebounding this week on the Higher Lows. Given also the identical 1W RSI pattern with 2023, we expect a bounce towards at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $69.50, same as the December 2023 - March 2024 rally.
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Bearish reversal off major resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 62.10
1st Support: 58.37
1st Resistance: 64.66
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
19.10.25 Crude Oil WeeklyOil is about to approach the Weekly Demand Zone
Weekly (Higher Time Frame)
The Weekly Demand have 3 basing candle's: the Basing candle are so small it means price have been in balance til the buy pressure came in.
Also you the Demand zone was formed in a previously Supply zone. It means Supply became Demand (flip zone) and can indicate an uptrend.
Daily ( Lower Time Frame)
We are Having An Level on top of Level situation. Both level are covered in from Higher time frame. i will use both levels as my risk zone.
In the moment i reach twice profit of my risk i will move my stoplose to breakeven.
When we reach the first strong Supply i take of 75% of profit and let run the other 25% and trail my stoplose
USOIL based on NEoWaveThere has been a lot of demand for oil analysis.
In the 2-month cash data, we see that oil reached $56, and many say there’s a possibility that oil may not touch the high levels above $70 again, but the chart suggests otherwise.
In the 2-month cash data, given the complexity in wave-(c), it appears that a reverse contracting triangle pattern is forming. After the completion of wave-(c), wave-(d) of this triangle could potentially rise to $90.
Currently, we are in wave-(c) of this triangle, which is transforming into a diamond diametric pattern. Wave g of this diametric could end at $56 or in the $50-52 range, completing wave-(c).
The chart will be updated if needed.
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
USOIL breakout from consolidation zone big breaking📊 USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) Technical Update 🛢️
USOIL has confirmed a descending channel breakout followed by a range consolidation breakout — showing strong bullish momentum on the 30-minute timeframe. 🔥
📈 Breakout Level: 57.60
🎯 Technical Targets:
1️⃣ First Target – 58.20
2️⃣ Second Target – 59.00
As long as price holds above 57.60, the bullish bias remains intact. ⚡
#USOIL #WTI #CrudeOil #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutTrading
USOIL Crudeoil bullish forecast down trend breakdout🚨 USOIL (Crude Oil) Technical Update 🚨
🕒 Timeframe: 1H
📉 After a clear downtrend breakout, price has shown a strong bullish consolidation breakout from the key support zone at $60.700.
🔥 Momentum is shifting bullish, signaling potential continuation to the upside.
🎯 Technical Targets:
$61.300 — Initial resistance / short-term target
$62.000 — Mid-term bullish objective
$62.800 — Extended target / next major resistance
📊 Outlook:
As long as price holds above $60.700, buyers remain in control. Watch for sustained volume and candle confirmation for further continuation.
#USOIL #CrudeOil #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #Trading #Breakout #BullishMomentum 💪📈
USOIL Can Rise Higher (Swing Trade Opportunity)USOIL Can Rise Higher (Swing Trade Opportunity): OIL has been falling hard in the recent weeks. One of the reasons was the sub sector rotation. Most funds were being routed from energy to precious metals. Now OIL has completed and M pattern, which means that it can start to rise. So far this has showed a little upward movement which is not a sign of strength but rather an initial invite to the buyers.
Lets see if it gains momentum and becomes substantial.
Not a trade advice as usual.
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Today's crude oil trading strategyDon't be intimidated by "mid-term supply pressure", as the risks are manageable when going long.
1. Geopolitical Conflicts "Keep Adding Fuel" – Supply Worries Persist
The U.S. has just escalated sanctions on Russia and imposed restrictions on Venezuela’s crude oil exports, which directly cuts off part of the global supply. For context: When Ukrainian forces attacked Russian ports earlier, Russia’s daily crude exports dropped by 2 million barrels, and oil prices jumped 3% in a single day. Now, sanctions like these will only make the market more anxious about "insufficient oil supply," which will keep prices supported in the short term.
2. Inventory Data Offers "Genuine" Positives – Demand Provides a Safety Net
U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen for two consecutive weeks, with a further drop of 1.8 million barrels in the latest week. This clearly shows "more oil is being used than produced" – the current price gains aren’t unfounded. Additionally, China’s refinery utilization rate has risen from 86% to 88%, and there’s a requirement to ensure refined oil supply in the fourth quarter. This means demand for crude oil will only increase, adding an extra "safety cushion" for long positions.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
usoil @buy60.80-61.0
tp:61.5-62
sl:60
USOIL Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 57.145.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 55.504.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Attempts ReboundMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Attempts Rebound
WTI Crude oil is now attempting to recover after sliding toward $56.00.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil prices extended losses below the $60.00 support zone.
- It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $57.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil, the price struggled to continue higher above $62.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $61.20.
There was a steady decline below the $60.00 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $58.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested $56.00. The recent swing low was formed near $55.94, and the price is now correcting losses.
There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $62.45 swing high to the $55.94 low. The price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $57.50.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement at $59.20. The main hurdle is $59.95. A clear move above $59.95 could send the price toward $62.45. The next stop for the bulls might be $64.00.
If the price climbs further, it could face sellers near $65.00. Immediate support is $57.50. The next major level on the WTI crude oil chart is $55.95. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $55.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $52.00 zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil vs Gold: Transition to the Next Commodity CycleThe chart compares WTI crude (top) and the Gold/Oil ratio (bottom) on a weekly basis.
Historically, when the Gold/Oil ratio spikes — meaning gold becomes very expensive relative to oil — it tends to mark the end of the precious metals phase and the beginning of the broader commodity cycle.
In the past three cycles:
-2009 → 2011: Oil +219%
-2016 → 2018: Oil +188%
-2020 → 2022: Oil +572%
We’re seeing the same setup again:
TVC:USOIL sits at long-term support.
Gold/Oil ratio has reached historical extremes.
In each of these cases, gold had already led the move — followed by silver, industrial metals, and finally oil — the last to rally as growth and inflation expectations picked up.
If history rhymes, this could mark the rotation point where energy begins to outperform within the commodity complex.
XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Fall to Yearly LowsXTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Fall to Yearly Lows
As shown on the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude is trading below $57 today, with the 2025 low sitting near $55. Several factors are currently weighing on oil prices:
→ Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal — the world’s two largest oil consumers — continues to cloud the outlook for global growth and crude demand.
→ Increased output from OPEC+ members has added further pressure, with the IEA last week raising its forecast for a global oil surplus.
→ A decline in the risk premium following the peace agreement in the Middle East has also reduced support for oil prices.
So, what could happen next?
Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart
Seven days ago, we noted that:
→ In the long-term context, oil price fluctuations — following the June escalation in the Middle East — have formed a downward channel (shown in red). The current price has now slipped below its lower boundary.
→ In the short term, the pace of the decline appears to be accelerating, highlighted by the purple trajectory lines.
At that time, we suggested a scenario in which WTI could drift towards its yearly low near $55, which is now materialising. However, note the following:
→ The RSI indicator is hovering near oversold territory.
→ The chart shows signs of a Falling Wedge pattern, which often precedes a bullish reversal.
Given these signals, it is reasonable to assume that, after a roughly 10% decline since the start of the month, bears may begin locking in profits on short positions. This could trigger a technical rebound in WTI prices — potentially towards the resistance area defined by:
→ The lower boundary of the red channel;
→ The psychological level of $60;
→ The median line of the purple channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XTI/USD : Oil Prices Rise Following Trump’s Sanctions DecisionXTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Rise Following Trump’s Sanctions Decision
According to the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude is now trading above the key psychological level of $60, marking a sharp rebound of over 3% from October’s lows.
The surge came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sanctions against major Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for more than 5 million barrels of oil per day.
The move is expected to reduce global oil supply; however, media outlets point out that:
→ there is no certainty that China and India will refrain from purchasing Russian crude;
→ previous sanctions introduced under the Biden administration — targeting companies such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz — had little impact on Russian oil exports.
What could happen next?
Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart
On 20 October, we noted that two descending channels had formed:
→ Red channel – a long-term pattern that developed following the Middle East escalation in June;
→ Purple channel – indicating accelerated downside pressure driven by rising OPEC+ output and hopes for a U.S.–China trade accord.
Our earlier assumption that the market was oversold and that the Falling Wedge pattern might trigger a bullish reversal proved correct (as shown by the arrow). Following the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, oil prices climbed towards the median line of the purple channel.
At this stage, consolidation appears the most likely scenario, as supply and demand may stabilise around the channel’s median. Much will depend on statements from the White House, since higher oil prices could threaten U.S. inflation objectives.
However, if bullish momentum persists, WTI may continue to rise towards the next resistance area, defined by:
→ the upper boundary of the purple channel;
→ the 8–9 October highs, where a false breakout similar to the bear trap seen on 26 September cannot be ruled out.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
ER: The Hidden Tool 95% of Traders Ignore (But Shouldn’t)What if I told you there’s a free, stats-backed tool that shows you where price is likely to stop or reverse — with 68% confidence?
Meet Expected Range (ER) — not a magic bullet, but a massive edge when used right.
✅ Based on CME data & Nobel-winning math
✅ Defines high-probability support/resistance zones
✅ Free from CME website.
I never trade without checking ER anymore.
It turns noise into structure.
👉 Check the screenshots yourself — see how price reacted at each edge last week.
The only thing you need to do?
→ Grab ER data from the CME website daily
→ Apply a simple conversion formula
→ Plot it on your futures chart
That’s it.
Now you’ve got statistically grounded levels right in front of you.
Depending on your market view, you can:
• Short from the upper ER boundary
• Use it as a trend support entry zone
• Hide stops beyond the range — because price statistically won’t reach them
⚠️ Caveat: ER isn’t a crystal ball.
But in normal markets - ER zones hold ~4 out of 5 times.
Question for you:
Are you using ER? Or still guessing support/resistance?
Transparency first. No hype. Just real results.
Oil’s Bottom Is on Its Last Breath — A Major Rally Is ImminentPrevious analysis:
Update is on the chart above 👆
The downside we were hunting looks near completion; in time terms, the correction also appears done.
Wave structure points to the end of wave 2 and the start of a powerful wave 3 up. Failed downside breaks and liquidity sweeps of recent lows back this view.
Confluence: demand retest, deep fib retrace (around 78–88%), and weakening seller momentum at the latest lows.
Roadmap: once this phase completes, I’m looking for an impulse toward $110—with momentum building as price reclaims 65 and then 81.
Risk: even if this setup gets stopped, I’ll keep looking for long entries—trend context and timing still favor upside continuation.
Macro angle: a major oil spike is rarely just a chart pattern—it’s a stress signal. What crisis is this foreshadowing? Middle East? Or something broader and global on supply/demand?
If this resonates, save & follow for the next updates. (Not financial advice.)
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) – Bullish Reversal Setup | 4H AnalysisMarket Context
WTI Crude Oil has been in a strong downtrend over the past few weeks, breaking multiple support levels.
However, price has now reached a key higher-timeframe demand zone (55.80–57.00), which previously acted as a strong reaction area in the past.
The recent 4H candles show clear rejection wicks and slowing bearish momentum — signaling that sellers may be losing control.
Technical Breakdown
Structure: The downtrend may be completing its final leg, forming a potential double-bottom or accumulation phase.
Demand Zone: The area between 55.80–57.00 is aligning with previous volume imbalance and untested demand.
Liquidity Sweep: Price grabbed liquidity below prior lows and quickly bounced back — a classic smart money reversal sign.
💡 Trade Plan
Entry Zone: 56.80 – 57.20 (after confirmation or retest)
Stop-Loss: Below 55.80 (structure break / demand invalidation)
Take-Profit Targets:
🎯 TP1: 61.00 (first resistance / supply area)
🎯 TP2: 64.70 (major 4H resistance & potential reversal completion point)
🧭 Bias & Outlook
Bullish, as long as price holds above 55.80 and continues forming higher lows.
A break below this level would invalidate the setup and signal continuation of the broader bearish trend.
🧠 Summary :
Oil has reached an oversold demand region, showing signs of accumulation and liquidity sweep.
Early confirmation of buyers stepping in could trigger a strong corrective move toward 61.00–64.70.
This is a medium-term swing setup with solid risk-to-reward potential.
Bearish continuation setup?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 58.32
1st Support: 55.92
1st Resistance: 60.17
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USOIL Near Final Leg USOIL is forming a clear corrective pattern inside a falling channel. Price is currently in the final leg of wave (5) of (C), suggesting one more dip is likely before reversal.
The downside target lies near 5,000–5,200 , where support from the channel base aligns. Once this level holds, a strong bullish reversal is expected, marking the end of the correction and the start of a new upward trend.
Stay Tuned!
@Money_Dictators :)
USOIL Oil prices are heavily influenced by supply/demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, OPEC production policies, economic growth indicators, and inventory data.
Trading Tips:
Monitor OPEC announcements, especially decisions on quotas and production cuts.
Watch for geopolitical events in oil-producing regions like Iran, Venezuela, and the Middle East.
Keep an eye on US crude inventory reports, dollar strength, and macroeconomic data affecting demand.
Head of OPEC: Haitham Al-Ghais, Kuwait.
USOIL MARKET STRUCTURE .
WATCH KEY DEMAND FLOOR 55.932-55.899
BREAK AND CLOSE NEXT WATCH WILL BE 50.499-50.78$
WEEKLY SUPPORT ON DEMAND WILL BE 44.7%-45$ ZONE
KEY RSISTANCE 66.219-65.567
layer by layer ...we are looking at oil sell position and i will communicate soon on any potential position.
GOODLUCK
#OIL #USOIL #USD #DOLLAR #US1OY #DXY






















