SNP500 ShortThis is against the H4 trend; however there is very good resistance at this level, as it is the all-time high and contesting the previous week's high.
There is a pattern on M15 to show a potential reversal zone.
Multiple tops on M15 to H1 with divergence and showing the trends flattening out.
This is against the trend so look to get out at M15 oversold
USSP500CFD trade ideas
SP500 4H Trading Outlook for Major Currency Pairs and Indices, Especially Gold and Silver, in the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and market outlooks.
As can be seen, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance area near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or break of these levels will determine the subsequent price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to identify key price levels and potential market reactions, and the analyses provided should not be considered as trading signals.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): To the New Highs?!
US500 is going to break a resistance based on a current all-time high.
A daily candle close above the underlined structure will provide a confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 6520 then.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6596 .Dear colleagues, I haven't made a forecast for the SNP500 in a long time and was waiting for a correction, but it seems that a major correction is not yet close, and at the moment the price continues to be in an upward five-wave movement.
Therefore, I believe that we should expect to reach the 6596 area, which will mark the end of the medium-term wave “3.”
The corrections are not very deep at the moment, but the price may reach the 6317 area before continuing its upward movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPX is in a clear breakout trend! SP:SPX has triggered 2 larger bullish patterns.
Both patterns result in higher price.
Despite the weakness in NVDA the markets have shrugged off the decline.
We are trading into new all time highs so price discovery mode is in a effect.
When you have no resistance pivots or volume to trade against at new all time highs you really have to be careful if you're shorting the market.
Volume trends. extension moves, ATR, deviations should all be included in your analysis to define upside target zones.
We continue to remain net long the markets with key shorts in place.
"US500 BREAKOUT – TIME TO LOAD LIMIT ORDERS FOR THE PUMP?"🔥🦹♂️ "SPX500 BANK HEIST – LAYERED BULL RAID IN PROGRESS!" 💰📈
(Thief Trader’s Multi-Limit Order Bullish Ambush – No Weak Hands Allowed)
📍 ASSET: US500 / SPX500 (S&P 500 INDEX)
🎯 HEIST PLAN: BULLISH BREAKOUT 6500.00
💣 ENTRY: ANY PRICE LEVEL (Thieves use Layered Limit Orders – adapt like a pro!)
🔫 SAMPLE LAYERS: (Scale in like a boss!)
BUY LIMIT LAYER 1: 6475.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 2: 6460.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 3: 6440.00
(Add more layers if needed – flexibility is key!)
🛑 STOP LOSS: 6400.00 (Thief’s Emergency Exit – adjust based on your risk!)
🎯 TARGET: 6600.00 (First profit zone – trail or take gains!)
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER’S MASTER PLAN:
"We don’t ask for permission – we take profits."
🔹 ENTRY TACTICS:
Use multiple limit orders (LAYERED STRATEGY) – like planting timed explosives at key levels.
No panic entries – thieves strike with precision, not emotion.
DCA if needed – but keep bullets for the real move.
🔹 STOP LOSS RULES:
6400 = Danger Zone – if price breaks, abort mission & regroup.
SL too tight? You’ll get stopped out by market noise. SL too wide? You’ll bleed. Find balance.
🔹 TAKE PROFIT STRATEGY:
First TP @ 6600 – secure partial profits.
Let runners ride with trailing stop – or full exit if momentum fades.
🚨 THIEF’S GOLDEN RULES:
✅ Only LONG – no revenge shorts, no greed traps.
✅ Trade in SILENCE – avoid high-impact news (CPI, NFP, Fed).
✅ Risk management = Survival – don’t blow your account on one play.
✅ BOOST & SHARE – if this plan helps, spread the word!
📢 FINAL WARNING:
"This is not financial advice – it’s a thief’s blueprint.
Plan your escape before entry. Market heists require discipline."
💬 COMMENT "ROBBING SPX" if you’re in!
🔥 LIKE & BOOST if you ride with the Thief Trader crew!
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER OUT.
💸 STEAL SMART. GET RICH. REPEAT.
S&P500 Nvidia’s guidance has tempered risk appetiteNvidia’s earnings dampened sentiment overnight, with shares down -3% in after-hours trading after a strong Q2 sales beat was overshadowed by softer guidance and concerns over a potential US plan to tax China AI chip sales. The disappointment weighed on futures, with NASDAQ 100 down -0.29% vs. -0.12% for S&P 500.
That said, prior to the results, the S&P 500 (+0.24%) closed at another record high, supported by strength in energy (+1.15%) on firmer oil prices and tech (+0.48%). Small-caps also outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+0.64%) at an 8-month high, now just 3% below its November 2021 peak.
Takeaway for S&P traders: Nvidia’s guidance has tempered risk appetite, but sector rotation into energy and small-caps continues to support breadth, helping the index hold record levels despite tech headwinds.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6516
Resistance Level 2: 6542
Resistance Level 3: 6564
Support Level 1: 6416
Support Level 2: 6400
Support Level 3: 6381
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SEPTEMBER, the worst month for the S&P 500?What trend for the S&P 500 index this September 2025? A highly anticipated September as the fundamental back-to-school issues are crucial for the year-end trend.
September is the worst month for the S&P 500 index in terms of seasonality, and investors fear a drop in the US stock market this September while fundamental challenges are not lacking (the FED on Wednesday, September 17) and the S&P 500 is as expensive as it was at the end of 2021 in terms of valuation. Is this bearish consensus a trap?
On the topic of the S&P 500 valuation, I invite you to reread the analysis we published on July 30 by clicking on the image below.
1. Is September really the worst month in terms of performance for the S&P 500 index?
YES! Yes, September is indeed the worst month in the history of the S&P 500 index in terms of average performance. The average performance of September is negative, and no other month of the year shows a negative performance for the S&P 500.
However, be very cautious with this type of statistics, as it is only an average, and still, 47% of the September months in S&P 500 history have recorded a positive performance.
The data source below is indicated at the bottom right of the table.
2. The final performance of September 2025 will be dictated by fundamentals, in particular the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17.
The Fed has not lowered the federal funds rate since the end of 2024, and the US stock market now needs an accommodative monetary shift to preserve its long-term bullish trend. In one of my articles last week, I examined the 3 possible scenarios for the federal funds rate by the end of the year as well as the stock market impact for equities, bonds, the US dollar, and Bitcoin.
The table below summarizes the 3 possible cases and the potential market impact; you can access all details by clicking on it.
It is Powell’s Fed monetary choice on Wednesday, September 17 that will determine the final September performance for the S&P 500 index. The next two figures likely to influence the Fed’s decision are the PCE inflation on Friday, August 29 and the NFP report on Friday, September 5.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
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SPX500 & NAS100 AT RESISTANCE CROSSROADS, GOLD GAINING STEAMIn this weekend's analysis on the SPX500 and NAS100 indices, I see a potential bullish trend continuation but also at a key resistance level with hidden bears ready to attach bulls. This is one of the setups that patience is more rewarding than taking a bet.
Gold is gaining strength to the upper range and still in the sideways channel. Here too patience for a clear breakout will be more rewarding. I think based on the length of the sideways, once there is a clear breakout, Gold will really rally to it's next targets. Please watch the entire video to understand my analysis and thoughts. Cheers and have a great trading week.
S&P 500 Index Reaches Another All-Time HighS&P 500 Index Reaches Another All-Time High
On 13 August, we wrote about the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high following the release of the CPI report. At that time, we suggested that the price might move towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel (highlighted in blue on the chart).
Since then:
→ the price has set a new record, forming peak 0 near the upper boundary of the channel;
→ it then fell back towards the lower boundary, where block A was formed;
→ and subsequently rose again to a fresh all-time high (F), coming close to the 6500 level.
The resilience of the blue channel underlines the prevailing bullish sentiment, which is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September – an event seen as positive for the economy and potentially boosting corporate earnings. This optimism is so far outweighing the fact that Nvidia’s shares slipped slightly yesterday after the company’s earnings release (despite results exceeding investor expectations).
But is the outlook entirely cloudless?
S&P 500 Chart Technical Analysis
Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500, there are grounds to make slight adjustments to the slope and width of the ascending channel to better reflect the latest data.
At first glance, the picture appears bullish:
→ long lower shadows around block A point to strong buying interest;
→ downward pullbacks (B→C following impulse A→B, and D→E following impulse C→D) halted near the classic 50% Fibonacci retracement;
→ higher lows in late August give reason to consider the formation of a cup and handle pattern.
However, the bears also have their counterarguments:
→ the 6,500 level could act as psychological resistance (with the risk of a false bullish breakout);
→ the upper boundary of the channel may provide resistance;
→ the marked extremes resemble a bearish rising wedge pattern.
Progress in establishing new highs is becoming weaker each time – it seems that the S&P 500 bull market is running out of steam. This raises concerns about a correction – and with September’s long-standing reputation as the most unfavourable month for markets, a noticeable pullback could happen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 Hits 6,495 Before Pullback, Key Pivot at 6,468SPX500 Futures – Overview
The S&P 500 continues to record new highs, peaking at 6,495 before pulling back for a correction.
Price action has since settled above 6,485 on the 4H candle — the previous high — and is now correcting back toward this level, preparing for a potential new upward move.
🔹 Technical Outlook
Holding above 6,485 will support bullish continuation toward 6,512 → 6,528 new ATH.
⚠️ A break below 6,485 and a confirmed 1H close under 6,468 (pivot) would signal a new decline toward 6,425 support.
Key Levels
Pivot: 6,468
Resistance: 6,512 – 6,528
Support: 6,485 – 6,468 – 6,438 – 6,425
✅ Summary:
SPX500 remains in a bullish structure after reaching new highs. Watch 6,485 as the key decision level — holding above favors continuation higher, while a drop below 6,468 could trigger a deeper correction.
S&P500 at Resistance: Nvidia Earnings Could Decide the Next Move📊 US500 (S&P 500) has rallied recently 📈, but it’s still struggling to break through the current highs 🔼🧱.
💡 I believe the next move could hinge heavily on Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow 🖥️💵.
👉 If the report is positive, watch for a break and retest above the current range to position long 🚀.
👉 If the report is negative, we could see the broader stock market sell off 📉.
⚠️ This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice 📚🔒
Why Stocks Often Drop in September — And Why Algos Make It WorseSeptember has historically been a challenging month for stocks, especially indexes like the S&P 500. While several human behavioral factors contribute, algorithmic trading significantly amplifies this effect. I am expecting S&P to retreat to 5900 lvls and stocks to drop heavily alreadt end of this week.
Algos Are Programmed to React to Seasonal Patterns:
Many trading algorithms are trained on historical market data that include the “September Effect”—the well-known tendency for stocks to dip during this month. As a result, these algorithms trigger sell signals simultaneously as September approaches, cascading into accelerated selling pressure.
Profit Taking at Summer’s End:
Institutional investors and traders often take profits at the end of August after strong summer gains, reducing exposure before expected volatility. This human behavior feeds into the algo models, reinforcing selling trends.
Order Splitting and Speed Amplify Moves:
Algorithms slice large orders into smaller ones to minimize market impact, but when many algos do this in sync, it leads to sharp intraday swings. High-frequency trading can exacerbate rapid price drops as sell orders pile up quickly.
Hedging and Risk Controls Kick In:
As prices fall, algos are programmed to cut risk by selling to limit losses. These automated sell-offs can create feedback loops, pushing prices down faster than human emotions alone would.
Volatility Spurs More Selling:
Increased price swings prompt further algorithmic adjustments and human caution—creating a self-reinforcing cycle of volatility and declines.
Bottom Line: With profit-taking wrapping up August and algo-driven selling ramping up, the S&P 500 is likely to begin a retreat of at least 5% soon, echoing historical September patterns. For disciplined investors, this period is an opportunity to consider taking profits or reducing risk before broader market weakness potentially sets in.
S&P500 3-month Channel Up still valid. Buy.The S&P500 index (SPX) kept its 3-month Channel Up intact last week despite a short-term correction as the price stopped exactly on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and following Chair Powell's remarks on rate cut possibilities, it rebounded aggressively.
Given also that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been its long-term Support since May 01, the stage is set for the pattern's new Bullish Leg. With the last one being +8.80%, we expect the index to hit at least 6750 next.
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SPX500 Weekly Trend AnalysisSPX500 Weekly Trend Analysis
The SPX500 on a weekly timeframe continues to show an upward trend within a rising channel that has been in place since 2020. The price behavior in relation to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels is particularly interesting—the previous two pullbacks both stopped at this key level, confirming its significant role as support.
As a reminder, after forming a low in 2020, the SPX500 entered a long bullish trend that lasted until December 2021, when it recorded its first high at 4500.00. After that, the index pulled back to the 50.0% Fibonacci level and then continued with a new bullish rally.
A new higher high was formed around 6000.00, which is again connected to the -50.0% Fibonacci level. The next pullback, similar to the previous one, found support at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend.
Based on this pattern, there is a realistic possibility of a new bullish rally with a potential target of 7500.00 (-50.0% Fibonacci level). Following the previous cycles from low to high and pullback, the average interval is approximately 920–930 days, which provides a rough time projection:
Next high: By the end of 2026
Next pullback: First part of 2027 or, at the latest, by October 2027
This pattern confirms the strong long-term growth structure and implies that the SPX500 will likely maintain its positive momentum for several more years, with periodic corrections that rely on key Fibonacci levels.
S&P 500 Fed independence concerns + tariff threatsFed/Political Risk: Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, citing mortgage-related allegations. Markets saw this as a fresh escalation of political pressure on the Fed. The dollar initially dropped (-0.4%) before recovering, while gold held a +1% gain. Treasuries steepened sharply (2s30s at steepest since Jan 2022), highlighting rising risk premia around Fed independence. This adds uncertainty for monetary policy credibility, a potential headwind for US equities.
Tariffs/Tech Risk: Trump threatened new tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology in retaliation for digital services taxes. This raises headline risk for US megacaps, particularly tech, and could weigh on Nasdaq sentiment.
Geopolitics (France): US–France tensions escalated after comments from Ambassador Kushner, coinciding with France’s plan to recognize a Palestinian state. While not directly market-moving, it reinforces geopolitical overhangs that could spill into risk sentiment.
Market Impact:
Futures: S&P 500 (-0.14%), Nasdaq (-0.18%) modestly lower.
Rates: Steepening curve adds pressure to longer-duration equities.
Risk Tone: Elevated political/geopolitical noise may cap near-term upside.
For S&P 500 traders: Fed independence concerns + tariff threats = watch for tech underperformance and a potential pickup in volatility around US political headlines.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6516
Resistance Level 2: 6540
Resistance Level 3: 6565
Support Level 1: 6380
Support Level 2: 6360
Support Level 3: 6340
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 bullish sideways consolidation Equities: Rate-cut expectations outweighed slowdown fears. S&P 500 (+0.21%) closed just shy of record highs, NASDAQ (+0.45%) hit a fresh record. Defensive sectors lagged, leaving the equal-weighted S&P (-0.04%) slightly lower. In Europe, STOXX 600 (+0.52%) and CAC 40 (+0.78%) gained ahead of France’s confidence vote.
Corporate drivers: Apple’s launch event today puts spotlight on iPhone 17 Air, though analysts see the Pro line as the true sales catalyst. Big-ticket M&A and tech deals: Anglo American–Teck merger ($50bn) and Microsoft–Nebius AI cloud contract (~$20bn).
Conclusion for S&P 500 trading:
Momentum remains positive with the index near record highs, supported by the rate-cut narrative and strong tech sentiment. However, breadth is weak (equal-weighted index flat), suggesting gains are concentrated. Traders may lean bullish into Apple’s event, but need to watch for rotation risk if defensives keep lagging.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6553
Resistance Level 2: 6590
Resistance Level 3: 6630
Support Level 1: 6440
Support Level 2: 6410
Support Level 3: 6380
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 Rising Wedge break-out imminent.Last week's (September 02, see chart below) buy signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 6530 Target, as the price reversed on its 4H MA200, which as we mentioned was the market's medium-term Support:
Right now the index is supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of a Rising Wedge similar to the one at the start of the 4-month Channel Up.
As you can see the symmetry between the two patterns is very high and the June break-out led to a +5.70% rise on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension before the next consolidation. A potential +5.70% rise from he recent 4H MA50 Low would now be at 6720 and that is our short-term Target.
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